cover of episode This GOP bill will affect borrowing costs for everyone

This GOP bill will affect borrowing costs for everyone

2025/5/29
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AI Deep Dive AI Chapters Transcript
People
A
Alex Weprin
A
Alice Frazier
A
April Hemmes
E
Ernie Tedeschi
G
Gretchen Blau
J
Jesse Schrager
J
Josh Hurt
K
Kent Smetters
M
Mark Ackerton
M
Michael Lozano
S
Stacey Tarusco
S
Steve Lively
T
Tom Sang
V
Virginia Palacios
W
Wesley Rule
Topics
Ernie Tedeschi: 作为耶鲁预算实验室的经济主任,我的主要工作是根据最新的新闻动态更新经济模型。自从特朗普政府实施关税政策以来,经济环境变得极不稳定,这给我们的模型预测带来了前所未有的挑战。例如,在特朗普总统宣布对欧盟商品征收50%关税后,我甚至在乘坐Uber时不得不紧急更新模型。这种不确定性不仅影响了我们的工作,也让消费者和企业难以预测未来的经济走向。如果之前被法院否决的关税重新生效,消费者将很快在商品价格上感受到影响,尤其是在返校购物季。此外,由于国际贸易的延误,市场可能会出现商品短缺的现象。虽然我密切关注七月中旬的关税政策变化,但我深知关税政策随时可能发生变化。 Gretchen Blau: 作为物流公司的海关经纪人,我亲眼目睹了关税政策给企业带来的困扰。我们公司内部已经发布备忘录,建议大家等待观望,因为关税政策的走向非常不确定。许多客户都在询问退款的问题,但我们目前也无法给出明确的答复。更令人困惑的是,目前的裁决似乎只适用于IEEPA关税,而不适用于232或301关税。尽管如此,我们仍在积极寻找更多信息,以便更好地为客户提供服务。 Wesley Rule: 作为小提琴行的老板,我对当前经济局势的动荡已经习以为常。关税政策对我们业务的影响可能不会太大,因为我们的经销商已经提高了价格。为了应对关税带来的不确定性,我们之前贷款购买了一批乐器,以避免未来价格上涨。然而,作为企业主,我不得不花费大量时间来研究关税政策,并了解其他企业是如何应对的。这在五年前我刚开店时是根本不需要考虑的问题。 April Hemmes: 作为一名农民,我一直认为关税是一种过度行为。但现在正值春耕时节,我更关心的是如何把种子种好。每天都在变化的规则让我感到沮丧。如果关税能够取消,至少可以让那些购买我们农产品的国家少担心一件事。

Deep Dive

Chapters
The court ruling on President Trump's tariffs caused uncertainty in the economy. Economist Ernie Tedeschi discusses the impact on modeling, consumer prices, and potential shortages. The ruling's effects are still unfolding and may reach the Supreme Court.
  • Court ruled against Trump's tariff powers
  • Uncertainty increased for businesses and consumers
  • Potential for price increases and shortages
  • Impact on GDP growth

Shownotes Transcript

The GOP spending and tax bill making its way through Congress would pile significantly onto the national debt. In turn, bond investors will demand higher yields and — unless something changes — the cost of borrowing for a business or a mortgage is likely to go up too. Also in this episode: YouTube stars build their own production studios, a Texas bill seeks to avoid orphan oil wells and we break down the economic implications of yesterday’s judicial ruling on Trump’s tariff policy.

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