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A
Anne Hines
B
Blake Drosh
E
Erin Lash
H
Helen Mickle
J
John Kirk
J
John Lear
J
Justin Ho
K
Kristen Schwab
K
Kyle Rinsdahl
L
Lenwood V. Long
S
Savannah Peters
S
Supriya Beneshwar
Kyle Rinsdahl: 我报道了白宫就贸易问题与北京进行谈判的消息，以及中国外交部对此的否认。此外，我还讨论了零售业CEO们对关税政策的担忧，以及大型消费品牌下调全年预期的消息。这些都反映出贸易政策的不确定性对经济的影响。
John Lear: 我认为公司对消费者担忧的过度保守态度，反映了消费者对未来物价上涨的预期。关税导致物价上涨，消费者开始转向替代品，甚至减少对家庭必需品的消费。
Blake Drosh: 关税导致物价上涨，消费者开始转向替代品，甚至减少对家庭必需品的消费。这尤其影响到百事公司等生产甜食和咸食的企业。
Erin Lash: 消费者减少非必需品消费，但尚未出现持续的消费行为改变。需要更多时间才能判断这种行为改变是否会持久，以及是否会真正改变消费者和企业与经济互动的方式。
Supriya Beneshwar: 我研究了历史上的贸易保护主义政策，特别是进口替代工业化政策。历史表明，这种政策最终导致经济效率低下和创新不足。许多国家在尝试这种政策后都放弃了，转而拥抱国际贸易。
Paul Krugman: 进口替代工业化政策并没有使相关产业变得高效，经济增长也令人失望。发展中国家在20世纪80年代迅速转向拥抱国际贸易的战略，这是一个美国可以从中学习的历史教训。
Sebastian Gagliani: 我以阿根廷的例子说明了进口替代工业化政策的失败。在高关税的保护下，阿根廷的产业缺乏竞争力，创新不足。
Douglas Irwin: 我以印度为例，说明了进口替代工业化政策如何导致一个缺乏国际竞争力的大型制造业部门，并没有显著提高生活水平。
supporting_evidences
John Lear: 'My sense is that companies are being sort of overly conservative right now...'
Blake Drosh: 'It really can only be a matter of having to raise prices by a little bit...'
Erin Lash: 'It does take more than a quarter, maybe more than two quarters before there is the expectation...'
Supriya Beneshwar: 'The world's economic landscape 85 years ago looked very different from today...'
Paul Krugman: 'Why buy from abroad when you can make it at home...'
Sebastian Gagliani: 'When Gagliani was a kid in Argentina in the 70s...'
Douglas Irwin: 'India produced a car known as the Ambassador...'
Deep Dive
This chapter discusses the impact of President Trump's tariffs on American consumers. Companies are cutting their forecasts due to uncertainty created by trade policy. Consumers are cutting back on spending and even rationing household staples.
- Companies like PepsiCo, Procter & Gamble, and American Airlines cut their yearly forecasts due to trade policy uncertainty.
- Consumers are expecting higher prices due to tariffs, leading to changes in their spending behavior.
- Some consumers have started rationing essential goods like laundry detergent and shampoo.
Shownotes Transcript