Hour 3 - Keep Calm, This is Not World War III
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So far, reporting is that all the missiles that Iran fired have been intercepted, no injuries to speak of yet. And it looks like Iran, going through the motions on some form of retaliation after the U.S. over the weekend had its B-2 bombers, which I must say, big winner over the weekend, the B-2 bomber program, $2.4 billion apiece for those planes, but...

Pretty impressive. Pretty impressive what they can do. How about the dudes flying those? And I know we'll have some fun maybe at the end of the show with the boys in the planes or whatever that turned into a controversy for the New York Times. You saw this. But 37 hours, they start off going east. They confuse people, make them think that we're headed west, and nonstop fueling in the air, precision. They got microwaves up there. They got a little lavatory facility, and they're basically in this cockpit area.

It's not deluxe accommodations, but they're able to fly and deliver these strikes. They take off, I think the report was from Missouri, from an air base in Missouri. So pretty amazing when you think about what the capabilities of the United States military are, and we saw them on display. No doubt. I mean, it was really, really incredible. Thanks to them. And again, to update everybody out there, because I know many of you may have family members serving in the Middle East, friends,

It appears that Iran has effectively thrown in the towel on their response here. Reports that they fired the same number of missiles that we did, that they were all intercepted, no casualties so far. And the decision now will be back in the proverbial court of Donald Trump. Do we say, okay, this is a, you know, we attack their nuclear weapons abilities. We wipe them largely out. Iran has said,

basically uttered a face-saving gesture of response, and we're now going to step back and let Israel do as they see fit. Like, we'll see. The ball's back in our court, I think it's fair to say. Yes. So now we can take a moment, because there's not much in the way of updates on the Iran situation. Now we can take a moment, I think, to look at the mayor's race in New York City, just as we are on the eve of the primary there. As you know...

New York is a very much a Democrat enclave. Something like 80% of voters in the five boroughs vote Democrat, give or take. And so if you win the Democrat primary, you're going to be the next mayor of New York. I think that is clear. And they have ranked choice as well. So you put your number one and then your number two and your three. You go down this whole rabbit hole of ranked choice.

Cuomo had been the candidate that Clay has been saying is going to win. Clay, I don't know. I don't know if he's going to win. It's looking a little shaky here. Your whole comeback theory might, you know, it's looking a little tough. How about how bad your home city of New York City has gotten that...

The best case scenario for the city at this point seems to be one of the worst governors during COVID who sent people into nursing homes to effectively die, who got everything wrong and had to resign in shame because of sexual harassment.

is infinitely the best choice that Democrats could pick and that they actually have a far worse decision that may be made. This is like if Gavin Newsom was running for mayor of New York and he was up against a lunatic socialist...

I guess Gavin Newsom would be a better choice, too. I mean, Gavin Newsom and Cuomo, to me, are very similar on the COVID record. I mean, just both absolutely awful. When you see this as a born and raised New York City resident who finally got fed up and moved to Miami, but you have a lot of family and friends in New York City. Yeah. Do you take it as validation for the fact that leaving was the right call? Or are you more resigned and sad that New York City could be in a position this bad? Yeah. Both.

I, you know, half my family still lives in New York and in Manhattan. And, you know, we have our studio in Manhattan, which you and I both make pilgrimages to on a regular basis. Not that regular New York tax man, but, you know. That's good. That's good. You know, once in a rare while in my case, but Clay is not so much on the radar because he never lived in New York. But I will say this. It's...

Okay, this is a perfect... We need to describe this Mamdani guy in a second. We'll give you some updates on who this guy is. Our friend Carol Markowitz, who's one of our podcast hosts in the Clay and Buck Network. It's a great show. Long-time New Yorker like me. Moved to Florida like me also. And right around the same time I did.

And she says, because I like to tell stories about the old days in the early 90s where there was just crime everywhere, graffiti everywhere, people getting robbed, people getting mugged, totally normal, no one even noticed. People in my school, we had to get a security guard posted outside of my Catholic school on the Upper East Side, which is among, and at the time was definitely the nicest, I would argue, Upper West, Upper East.

parts of the city because so many kids clay they're talking about grammar school kids were getting robbed you know by like by like young gang members were showing up and they were you know saying run your pockets and take all your stuff anyway it was crazy well i mean i say this stuff out loud no one believed it's be look at the numbers you had 2100 homicides in 1990 1991 2100 homicides in new york city

Kara Markowitz said this, though, is brilliant insight. The difference between then and now is that then even then even Democrats agreed that crime was a bad thing that you want to get rid of. Now, they may have may have taken them too long to figure out how to do it, but they wanted to do it.

Now I'm not so sure about that. Now I think that they've been convinced that the true leftist socialist maniac Democrats out there, like this Mamdani guy, they think that crime is like the cry of the oppressed or something, and that this is something that society just has to accept. And that is terrifying. I mean, here's a, let me give an example. Here is Mamdani. This is back in, this is the guy who is now

in the polls to be mayor of New York. Okay, he's ahead of Cuomo, to be clear, as of today. This is back in 2020. New York State Assemblyman Zoran Mamdani. Play 36.

Do you think that we have to almost do without policing in certain areas, which are labeled to be high fines, to have alternative bodies? Do the policing in a more compassionate, more merciful, more social, you know, assistant and helping more than arresting and putting in jail? I absolutely think that what we need to do is give subordination.

support and funding to institutions that are trained to deal with these kinds of issues. As you said, if you're having an argument with someone and there's a risk of it escalating, who is better positioned to de-escalate it? Someone who is well-known in the community or someone who has been trained specifically in de-escalation or a stranger who has a gun?

Yeah. Who wants that job? Who wants to be the difference? This is so this is living in an alternate universe. But there was talk about this violence interrupters. They were calling this. We're going to have somebody who will negotiate between the gangs. No, the gangs are shooting each other over drug territory because that's what they do. And if you don't have a gun, they're going to shoot you, too. Yeah. And look, this guy, I believe we have another cut. Yeah.

That just kind of gives you a sense of how crazy this guy is. And he may be the next mayor of New York City. But and if you're wondering what's the timing on this, tomorrow is officially primary day. Right. I believe New York City staff, you guys can correct me if I'm wrong on this. Tomorrow is officially primary day. They have been doing early voting every day up to the 24th.

And I believe tomorrow is Democrat primary day. So this is the day when everybody's going to go out and be making the decisions. Buck, this guy said that he wants to launch government-run supermarkets.

In New York City, if he's elected mayor, this is how crazy this guy is. This is Mom Donnie. And again, the primary is tomorrow. So this will be decided in short order. And there's the rank choice, primary voting and everything else. So it's a messy situation. But a lot of you out there listening, this is the first major election that we will have seen since Trump was elected about six months ago. Here he is saying, hey,

We need government-run supermarkets like we're in Russia back in the 1980s. Listen. Grocery prices are out of control. The cost of eggs and milk has skyrocketed. Some stores are even using dynamic pricing, jacking up the cost over the course of a day depending on what they can get away with. It doesn't need to be this way. I'm Zahram Mandani, and as mayor, I will create a network of city-owned grocery stores. It's like a public option.

to you

You know where you're really going to be able to trust the meat quality? You know where you're really going to be able to know that you're getting the best delivery of that produce and you can count on it? The DMV grocery store. That's where you really want to be. You want unaccountable government bureaucrats to be in charge of picking the freshest fish to put out on the counter. That's going to work out great. Clay, this guy is offering people bread lines.

Yes. And they're voting for it. Again, this is why I think everybody should have to go walk through the streets of Cuba because you're down in South Florida and a lot of our listeners have family in Cuba.

Go see what government-run supermarkets in Cuba look like. See what's available on the shelves. See how long you have to stand in line to try and buy these products. This is an actual ad that he's running. It's an ad he's running now, but it's so stupid to...

This is like when people complain about the gas state. You've pointed this out. The profit margin on gas is tiny. The profit margin that grocery stores have to make, that they make, is like 1% or 2%. But because everyone has to buy groceries to live, basically, if you're in a neighborhood where there are people, yes, you're going to make money. But...

This idea that the fat cats are somehow just extracting from everybody because they're the price of eggs is the price of eggs because of the demand versus the supply. The idiot socialists who have no understanding of economics or history are.

Keep making these same arguments. This guy's backed by AOC. He's backed by Bernie Sanders. He's horrible on crime. He's horrible on the economy. I mean, everything that New York City needs help with, this guy is going to be a disaster on.

And I just who is. But you know what? He'll be the first Muslim mayor of New York City. They can talk about diversity. They can talk about inclusion and they can talk about caring about the poor while they. Oh, he wants to create 200000 new housing units. OK, how's that going to go? Where's that money going to come from? And what are those housing units going to be like?

You know, you start to look at this. You know what people generally don't get excited about living in government housing projects in New York? You know why? Because they're generally not very nice and they never increase in real estate value because their projects. Did you see what Governor Ron DeSantis of Florida said sharing a story about this guy's platform?

This is going to be great for property values in Palm Beach. That's what the governor said. It's totally true. It's totally true. We're just going to keep it. You know that New York has lost. Do you remember what the figure is? I think it was $13 billion is what I saw. Oh, the percentage of people. And this is so important. And I think a lot of people still haven't recognized it.

I live in Tennessee. You live in Florida. A lot of you out there live in Texas. When you have no state income tax, it makes a difference if you make $75,000 or $80,000 or $100,000 a year. If you make $10 million a year or something like that, like a lot of these hedge fund and private equity guys do, you're talking about putting an extra million

million dollars in your pocket over the course of one year and they found out now we can live anywhere. Why would we give that to the state of New York? This is also a way of saying, and you don't have to make even $10 million. I mean, you look at this, you know, let's, you're talking about New York city. It's 14% for a lot of people. If you're in, let's say you're making a million dollars a year, which isn't, you know, isn't as much as it used to be. But if you make a million dollars a year, you're saving 140 grand in taxes for a lot of people that covers, you

A lot of their living expense. So the state, it's like, Clay, imagine this. Well, you actually have the same thing. It's like the state of Tennessee is saying, hey, Clay, you don't have to pay your rent. You don't have to pay for your food. We'll cover that for you if you live here. That's what it's like for people who leave New York to go to Texas, Tennessee, Florida.

In my neighborhood, Buck, the number of people that have abandoned Florida, that have abandoned Illinois, that have abandoned New York over state and local taxes and actually can pay almost their entire mortgage just based off the money that they're saving on those taxes is massive. And the more money you have, the more flexibility you have to be able to live anywhere. So the people that New York's losing, that Illinois is losing, that California is losing are the biggest taxpayers that are funding all of this great

crazy government expense. And at some point that becomes an issue. And I'm afraid New York city is starting to figure that out.

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Welcome back in, updating you on what's going on in the Middle East.

Iran seems to have effectively laid down. They noticed, gave us notice in advance of their response. No American casualties on the ground. The Saudis have now condemned Iranian strikes on Qatar as Qatar also condemned Iranian attacks. I think it's really important here, and we'll break down this for you more now that we can kind of start to think about what's going to happen next.

But, Buck, the Iranians are effectively isolated. The people out there who said, oh, look out, China's going to come in, Russia's going to come in, other Middle Eastern countries are going to line up and there are going to be real consequences if Israel attacks Iran. God forbid the United States gets involved.

Seems like that hasn't happened at all. In fact, Iran has basically rolled over and is begging for the United States not to attack them anymore. Yeah, like I said, we'll get into this and also some of your talkbacks and calls on the Iran issue here in just a moment. The remaining question, though, is I would want to know, and Trump will probably tell us because he's Trump,

But what does Trump want next? He says he wants there to be a deal, right? Because he's Trump. He wants a deal. Does that deal mean that the current Iranian regime, if they repent of their ways in some way, post-nuclear program, would be allowed to, you know, if there's a trust but verify in place, move forward?

more toward normalcy or is it you know what we need somebody else in charge here and good luck to you guys over in iran we're not doing it for you i that's what i don't have clarity i don't think anyone has clarity on this yet what comes next in iran if current trends continue yeah and i think the big question is this is an iranian decision do they look around and start to recognize again if they can get access to the internet if they can see how this is playing out

that after 46 years, they have an impotent leadership that has lied to them about their ability to bring war to Israel and the United States. And in fact, they got wrecked in one week. Look, I'm up in Michigan right now, and it is fabulous up here. And our friends at Rapid Radios are based in the state of Michigan. They have built an incredible business, nationwide LTE coverage, Rapid Radios, 100% private, no monthly fees.

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So far, it was pretty much a non-event. I mean, so far as no casualties, no major destruction, the missiles were intercepted. And the Iranians, it is now reported, coordinated, like told America we're firing. So that really is then, Clay, assuming that's all true, it is like a stage-managed response from the mullahs. And so we should continue to keep an eye on this, but it looks pretty...

Pretty contained for now. Wanted to take some of your commentary thoughts into consideration here. Lines are open, 800-282-2882. We have, I thought this was funny, VIP email from Brian says,

Liberals are against anyone having nuclear power anywhere except for Iran. It is funny. Iranian nuclear ambitions are sacred. Anybody else's nuclear power is scary. But Iranian nuclear stuff is sacred, according to the Libs.

I saw this and I thought this was kind of a checkmate on the argument against nuclear strikes, strikes to prevent nuclear weapons on our behalf by Trump. They said, oh, now we're really in danger. There's no telling what Iran's going to do now.

And my argument was, well, if you think that Iran is a huge threat now, weren't they a way bigger threat with nuclear weapons? In other words, I would rather them, if they're going to attack us, have less effective weapons than more effective weapons. I thought that was kind of they were checkmating themselves with their own logic. And they would say, well, now they're more likely to strike us. I actually think we have ensured and we're now seeing this that

that they don't have the ability to hit us with anything is the essence of this. And I mentioned it earlier. If we could go back in time and Bill Clinton in 1994, I saw Rahm Emanuel say this, could have a do-over, he would have tried to wipe out North Korea. They said Jimmy Carter got over there. Missile program, not the country, the missile program. Yeah, yeah.

Yeah, we don't want to kill everybody in North Korea. Like our other caller who's like, hey, we bomb them and we bomb them again and we bomb them some more. It's like, hey, buddy, it's a lot of bombing. North Korea nuclear weapons back in the 90s, if we could have restricted their access to them...

That would have been a really good thing. And I think the lesson that we learned from that is we cannot allow these rogue dictator states to have access to nuclear weapons because it's logical for them to want them because it preserves their power. Because once you have them, Kim Jong-un, your point basically has created a theocracy built around his father.

And and you have to bow down and worship him. We don't it's not a good thing that they at some point could have a guy just decide to bomb a nuclear weapon there. But we don't have the ability to take him out now and to take out their nuclear weapons. We can't allow Iran to be the equivalent of North Korea in the decades to come. Let's do a talk back here from Brian in Worcester, Massachusetts. This is talk back, D.D.

Hi, Buck, Brian from Worcester, Mass. I just wanted to get your take on you have these leftist journos out there this weekend saying that, oh, Iran, because Trump telegraphed it so soon, Iran actually moved most of their enriched uranium out of those sites and they still all have it. I mean, I don't believe that, but I'm just wondering what your analysis is on where they're getting that intel, quote unquote, from and what you think the truthfulness of it is. Thanks.

Yeah, I don't buy that, and here's why. The Israelis have this whole place mic'd up, okay? This is one thing that we know. If they know where to put the tactical missile strike in an apartment building so that it only kills the nuclear scientist...

You are not about to believe, I don't think anyone should believe, that they would allow the evacuation of the most sensitive material from the sites that are going to be completely saturated with intel, surveillance coverage, all of that, right? So I do not buy, yeah, did they try to get some stuff out of there? I'm sure. But I do not buy that they were able to salvage their nuclear program with some last-minute trucks and that the Israelis who are flying constant airstrikes let that just roll. That's the key.

That's the key. Just logically think through this. If you know that's a nuclear site and suddenly you bring the nuclear site out of the bunkers to put it on to trucks and Israel has complete air superiority, you're actually making their job easier.

So the logic of that argument doesn't stand up to your point, Buck, because Israel would just wipe out the trucks filled with the nuclear armaments. And it would be way easier to do that than have to go into the side of a mountain, uh,

Like we had to do with the bunker busting bombs. Also imagine that's your job. It's like you, you have to move the enriched uranium. Last week, Buck, I was saying, I don't know whether Iran had pulled all their guys out, but can you imagine going into the four Dow, the side of the mountain for the last few weeks when at any moment, you know that the U S could decide to just wipe you out. That's like the worst job in the world. Um,

And I hope for those guys credit or safety. I don't want anybody to get killed who doesn't have to get killed. I hope Iran didn't have them still going into the mountain, just waiting for the bunker busting bomb to come in and wipe them out. I mean, that's a kind of a that's a tough that's a tough gig. Some some folks on the right are going to, I think, have to take a take a little bit of of a moment to collect themselves, maybe even take a chill pill.

and calm down about some of this stuff. I've seen some really bad analysis of this from some... You're like, well, why...

uh you know why don't i name it's not about naming individuals and people can see what others have said and i i know i'm not i'm not about uh and neither is clay taking shots that are undermining anybody on on the right certainly in the commentary sphere politicians we have to hold due account so sometimes we're going to get a little salty about what a republican senator is voting for whatever but other people that are commenting they have their audiences and they have what they do and um but that's all a way of saying you know marjorie taylor green here

saying that we are entering World War III and nuclear war, she needs to calm down. That's actually not what we are doing right now. Play 37. Six months in. Six months in, see, and here we are, turning back on the campaign promises, and we bombed Iran on behalf of Israel. Yes, it was on behalf of Israel.

of Israel. We're entering a nuclear war, World War III, because the entire world is going to erupt. And you want to know the people that are cheering it on right now? Their tune is going to drastically change the minute we start seeing flag-draped coffins on the nightly news, on Fox News that brainwashes all the baby boomers, and on CNN that brainwashes all the Democrat baby boomers. And that is exactly how this is going to go down.

That is not how this is going to go down. I'm not saying, look, we've left open. I said that this thing could change overnight. There could be something that happens and there's an issue and we have to handle it. But what she's saying is that somehow Donald Trump would have to be so inept, poor at decision-making, lacking in strategic vision that as commander-in-chief, he would allow us to get drawn into a situation where the entire world at some level, right? I mean, not every country, but where many countries are at war with each other. That's crazy town stuff.

And I can say that very confidently. And if I end up being wrong, well, who will care? Because it'll be the middle of World War III. It's reckless to say this stuff. It's okay to say we shouldn't strike Iran. Well, we already have. So that's, you know, I don't begrudge anybody there. I don't agree with the strike. I don't, you know, because bad things are going to happen. But when you're claiming that we're in the midst now, or rather we're entering World War III and nuclear war, you're saying crazy stuff that is scaring people and preventing society

sober assessment of what's going on and adult conversation about what should happen now. So I very much disagree with Congresswoman Taylor Greene's assessment here to the point where I think she sounds like a jackass and it's not a good thing to be doing. I would just say pretty straightforwardly, World War Three requires that Iran have an ally. Can you name one country that

that has lined up behind Iran. This is where I think that there has not been enough pointing this out. The Middle Eastern countries want Israel to do this, right? They may say again publicly, oh, Israel's like what? Saudi Arabia wants Iran to not have nuclear weapons. The UAE, Qatar, all of them agree with what we did and what Israel is doing. They're even China and Russia agree

haven't said a word hardly in defense of Iran. This is also like, think about this. You think the Chinese give a crap about what happens to Iran? They do not. Okay? The Chinese Communist Party doesn't care about what's happening to Chinese people for the most part. Okay? They definitely don't care about a few nuclear sites getting hit in Iran. Whatever their diplomats say, no one's even going to remember tomorrow. And their diplomats are just hoping they don't get thrown into some dark cell and tortured to death.

by Xi Jinping. So, yeah, it's not... This is not some... There's no way. It's just crazy. If anything...

China is looking at this and saying, oh, maybe we need to reconsider invading Taiwan. I knew he was going to go to Taiwan. I'm just saying, I don't know what would happen because we have the strategic ambiguity perspective as it pertains to what we would do if China tried to take Taiwan. But I definitely think that the Chinese noticed, holy crap, the U.S. flew all around the world to

the nuclear capabilities of Iran, and the Iranians didn't even know we were in their airspace. Maybe the U.S. has got military capabilities that would be a threat, and maybe they would stand up for Tehuan. Well, maybe also, just bringing it back to Trump and the World War III and all these conversations that are going on right now. By the way, I think very few people are actually making the case. There's some big voices that are saying it.

We're not we're not in World War Three or a long way from from anything that would require or that should involve that level of it's hysteria. OK, that's hysteria. That's not that's not what's going on here. Maybe Trump has learned the lesson, though. You know, it's amazing to me some of the people that have turned and again, MTG is a member of Congress. So I have a little more. But some of the people on the right that I'm seeing, including some that honestly look, I like and think are really good on a lot of stuff.

They're not good on this. And I think in part it's they've gone too far in the direction of everything now is the Iraq war and WMD lies. Everything is...

is a 20 year worn Afghanistan that ends up with a Taliban coming back into power. It's like, well, you know, we, we, we've seen that there are plenty of things that happen that don't result in this. And just because whether it's, you know, airstrikes in Syria, which by the way, Trump did in the first Trump administration, nobody even remembers them. That's all you have to know about how much mission creep there was there. No one even remembers these missile strikes that we did. Remember this? There was talk about chemical weapons usage, which now there's a lot of debate over whether that even happened. Put that aside. Um,

I think Trump maybe did learn the lesson, though, Clay, and the lesson is you can hit people and then use hitting them as part of the framework of understanding of do you want to get hit again or not? Behave. You don't actually have to. Remember the Colin Powell thing of, you know, if you break it, you buy it or whatever? I mean, that was his that was his

Witticism that caught on with so many people. No, actually, just because you bomb nuclear reactors doesn't mean you have to have 82nd Airborne landing on the outskirts of Tehran, seizing the airfields and being in charge of like Iranians plumbing for the next 10 years. Like we don't actually have to do that. Trump's not going to do that. I mean, that's what I see from all this. I think the lesson has been learned. The other thing I would say here, some of you are saying, OK, how does this impact my pocketbook?

Price of oil down 7.5% as I am talking to you, down $5.50. I was talking about this with Buck Off Air. If the big concern had been, oh, the Strait of Hormuz, how is this going to impact the overall price of oil? You know where most of Iran's oil goes? China.

So the last thing that China wants is Iranian oil fields getting attacked because it increases the cost of their oil and gas, which is about 2% of the overall population, overall supply. But overwhelmingly, China benefits from discounted Iranian oil and gas because of the sanctions that are in place. So again, a lot of the analysis here has not been sophisticated, and I think it builds on this, Buck.

It's just an overall expectation of catastrophe everywhere. Sometimes catastrophe happens.

But if you expect all the time for everything to end in catastrophe, most of the time you are going to be wrong. And again, I think what we are seeing in the reaction from Iran is it's very muted. It's nowhere near World War Three. And I would just say, if you expect World War Three to happen, you have to name at least one significant country that is willing to go to war to protect Iran. I don't think there's even one of them.

Just FYI. Yeah, I mean, you think the Russians have a lot of extra manpower to throw into situations? The Russians have had to bring North Koreans to come help them out. And that's for a fight that is very central to the Putin-Russian-Kremlin ethos. So, people, look, you do need to know something about something to have a lot of ideas about that thing. And there are a lot of people out there right now who don't know nothing about nothing. All right? And they're really...

really flapping their gums on this stuff in ways that I think are unhelpful. Again, they're entitled to America. I just think they don't know what they're talking about. I'm also entitled to say that. We are on a talk radio show.

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Making America great again isn't just one man, it's many. The Team 47 Podcast, Sundays at noon Eastern in the Clay and Buck Podcast Feed. Find it on the iHeartRadio app or wherever you get your podcasts.

Welcome back in. Closing up shop Monday edition of the program. Just to reinforce, if you happen to just be getting in your car, Iran has responded. No casualties, no bombs reached the ground, shot down, and they appear to be saying, basically, we're done. So World War III does not appear likely to have happened. We will continue to update you on this. I'm sure there's going to be more drama in the Middle East. I want to say this.

Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. This is the 40 year anniversary of Buck and I starting this show. And look, we I hope you got me something nice. I did not get you anything nice because I'm not good at gifts. But we considered a gift every single day to get to talk to all of you. And we have had a lot.

of experiences already with you. Hope to have many more. I am up here, by the way, I wanted to say thanks to WTCM News Talk 580, one of our new affiliates. Huge audience, Traverse City, Michigan. My wife is from Michigan. We're up here for the week.

And we love all of you all over the place. But WTCM 580 News Talk, new affiliate here. Thanks for having me in studio. But good to have you back stateside. And we will be continuing to break down all of the absolute latest on this. But good sign today. It appears that much of the angst has been dialed down. Dive into this and more tomorrow, everybody. Thanks for hanging. I'm going to go drink some tea with honey.

Right.

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