Normally Podcast: Understanding the US-Iran Conflict
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Hey guys, we are back on Normally, the show with normal-ish takes, but when the news gets weird, I am Mary Katherine Hamm. I am Poha Markowitz, and we had another calm weekend. You know, when I got the text from you, I had already seen that the U.S. had bombed Iran, but I almost was like, oh my God, did something else happen? No, that's the only one I was referring to at that moment. Yeah, I had a fun time.

exciting Friday because I was on the five, which is a programming note I should have given our listeners and forgot about it. And look, I heard from friends. I heard, I heard your, your cohost, Mary Catherine was on the five. I was like, Oh, that's amazing. Oh,

And I'm not going to say that I convinced the president on the five, but I will note the timing that 24 hours later, this decision was made, you know. Yes, yes. Mary Katz gets the results. So I will say, and I think I've said this on the show, but I was actually very mixed on the US striking. Yeah.

I had my, you know, reasons for that. I didn't think it would lead to World War III. That wasn't one of them. I didn't think it meant American boots on the ground. But for one thing, I wanted Israel to really show the world that they can handle themselves. And I think that they absolutely can. Israel has a best friend in the White House right now, but they can't

you know, rely on American political whims. I think if Democrats gets elected, Democrats are getting progressively more anti-Israel, they won't necessarily be able to rely on America. I want them to be able to handle themselves. And look, they have, I, you know, I, when explaining what's going on in Iran to my teen, I said, Israel brought them to their knees and America kicked them in the teeth. That's like what I see it as.

Having said all that, this is what allies do. And when the U.S. had their global wars on terror, European allies participated, even though did we need them to participate? Not so much. But this is what allies do. And so I like seeing America stand by Israel and help in times of trouble.

Yeah. So let me just do the rundown real quick. The U.S. military carried out its attack against Iran's nuclear program early on Sunday local time. It was codenamed Operation Midnight Hammer. The mission involved seven B-2 Spirit bombers. What now? Operation Hammer. I mean, maybe we'll do. I don't know.

I'm going to take full credit. That's a really good point, Carol. Midnight Hammer, the mission involved seven B-2 Spirit bombers. Those are the stealth bombers that you guys have seen perhaps at flyovers in the past, carrying massive 30,000-pound bunker buster bombs known as Massive Ordnance Penetrators. It appears that a dozen of the bombs were used to strike Iran's deeply buried enrichment site at Fordow, or Fordow. I'm not sure exactly which way to say it.

Two weapons were also used to strike an underground centrifuge facility at Iran's main enrichment site in Natanz. Concurrent with the bombings, a U.S. submarine launched more than two dozen cruise missiles. Those weapons hit buildings and tunnels interested as a third nuclear site at Isfahan.

First, can I say, because I've said before, I'm starved for institutions that do what they're supposed to do extremely well. This mission did what it was supposed to do extremely well. No leaks. Yeah. No operational security problems. That's right. Went 30-hour round trip into Iran, bombed three sites, left Iran.

As the DOD says in a press conference, not a shot fired at them. No awareness that they were there. They refueled twice in the air. This is the way this is supposed to work. And to see it be successful in that way is just...

The military is the institution I have the most confidence of all of ours, but to watch them succeed is good. To watch them succeed on behalf of an ally who has been succeeding in surprising ways for the last two years is also good. And I just think this is a...

I'm glad I don't have to make these decisions because I'm, I like you was like, well, I think this is a great window of opportunity. And also what's the fallout, no pun intended. Um, I, Iran cannot have a nuclear weapon. Yep. Those saying that the strike is bad, use all sorts of, uh, arguments that, uh,

make me conclude they obviously can't have a nuclear weapon. They're like, they're going to retaliate in all these horrible ways. And I'm like, well, yes, yes. This definitely makes no sense to me is that all of the arguments are

would be so much worse with nuclear weapons. And, you know, a lot of the people who talk about, so they end up saying, Iran's not trying to get a nuclear weapon, which is obviously untrue. And we're going to play a clip right now from Marco Rubio in a second. But I just want to go back to the one point you made about operational security. Jennifer Griffin at Fox News said, in the past 18 years, I've never seen this level of operational security at the Pentagon. And this

is really a credit to Pete Hegseth, who had a really rocky start in this administration. But seeing him and Marco Rubio and J.D. Vance behind the president, I was at peace. I felt very like these people have it under control. Especially, I mean, Hegseth and Rubio to me are just

pinnacle of what's going on in this administration and the absolute security I feel when I see them. All right, let's roll the Marco Rubio clip about whether or not Iran actually wanted to obtain nukes. Are you saying there that the United States did not see intelligence that the Supreme Leader had ordered weaponization?

That's irrelevant. I see that question being asked on the media all the time. That's an irrelevant question. They have everything they need to build a weapon. No, but that is the key point in U.S. intelligence assessments. You know that. No, it's not. Yes, it was. No, it's not. That the political decision had not been made. Well, I know that better than you know that, and I know that that's not the case. But I'm asking you whether the order was given. And the people who say that...

It doesn't matter if the order was given. They have everything they need to build nuclear weapons. Why would you bury things in a mountain 300 feet under the ground? Why do they have 60% enriched uranium? You don't need 60% enriched uranium. The only countries in the world that have uranium at 60% are countries that have nuclear weapons because it can quickly make it 90. They have all the elements. Why do they have a space program? Is Iran going to go to the moon? No. They're trying to build an ICBM so they can one day put a warhead on it.

That's a question of intent. And you know in the intelligence assessment that it was that Iran wanted to be a threshold state and use this leverage. How do you know what the intelligence assessment says? I'm talking about the public March assessment. And that's why I was asking you if you know something more from March. But that's also an inaccurate representation of it. That's inaccurate in representation of it. That's not how intelligence is read. That's not how intelligence is used. Here's what the whole world knows. Forget about intelligence.

What the IAEA knows, they are enriching uranium well beyond anything you need for a civil nuclear program. So why would you enrich uranium at 60% if you don't intend to one day use it to take it to 90 and build a weapon?

Why are you developing ICBMs? Why do you have 8,000 short-range missiles and 2,000 to 3,000 long mid-range missiles that you continue to develop? Why do you do all these things? They have everything they need for a nuclear weapon. They have the delivery mechanisms. They have the enrichment capability. They have the highly enriched uranium that is stored. That's all we need to see. How does she...

ask him questions like that and not think this is going to be the result. He's just so on point. He knows his stuff so backwards and forwards. This is why he has 17 jobs in our government. And the IAEA, the fact that he's using the International Atomic Energy Agency, which is of course this intergovernmental agency that is headquartered in Vienna, it's all the things the libs love. And

And the IAEA is the source for the 60% number, which makes a civilian nuclear program and energy nuclear program not make any sense. Because as he said, 60% is way above what you would need for that. And that's why they put it three stories underground. I just, I think that, I think that Trump saw an opportunity to join Netanyahu and

in a generational once in a lifetime chance at changing the face of the Middle East and at getting to a place where, as he says, sometimes you need toughness for peace, which is his own spin on peace or strength. He saw this as an opportunity to do that. And that has been his strength in the Middle East in the past when he moved the embassies.

Right. When he went after Soleimani, he rejects the sort of Georgetown Foreign Service. Yes, he does. Take on foreign policy. And that consensus has been a trap in many cases for Soleimani.

presidents in the past. And so he's done these things that have not ignited World War III when everyone told us they would. And I do think it's a strength of his. CNN was saying, I was watching shortly after his speech, and one reporter was saying, well, you know, the thing about the Trump White House, it's very insular, and they don't talk to the same people that you would normally talk to when you're contemplating something like this. And I was like, yes, that is the point. For better or worse, whether you disagree with him or agree with him on this,

That's the point of this administration is to not talk to the same people. Yep. Yep. That's exactly it. Trump is his own thing. And we like that about him. In some cases, obviously, we have problems with it and others. But this was a classic Trump decision making based on what he knows in his gut, what he has gotten from competent people around him. And

I just, I can't possibly praise him enough in times like this. I think this is really where he shines.

I want to say that one of the normie concerns I've heard is that Iran will now look at ways to hit America. What I want people to understand is Iran is always looking for ways to hit America. It started in 1979, taking of 66 American hostages for two years. But there have been numerous other attacks throughout the years. A 1983 truck bomb at our military base killed

220 U.S. Marines and 21 other service personnel in Beirut, various murders of our service people in Iraq during that war. It was Iranian militias would come in and kill our people. And last November, the U.S. Justice Department announced charges against an Iranian national and two American accomplices for plotting to assassinate President Trump. I feel like that story is

Even Tucker Carlson said, you know, if that was true, it'd be a front page news. The fact that it wasn't front page news, that our Justice Department announced charges. This isn't like we heard a rumor. It's just it's unclear to Americans that this has been going on. I feel like a

A lot of people feel like we're in a war with Iran now, but they've been in a war with us for decades. And it's important to understand that nobody wants a hot war. Nobody wants more interactions with the Iranian regime. But they have been plotting and trying this on us for literally decades.

Yeah. Tommy Vitor, who is an Obama bro, which is of a completely opposite philosophy on Iran, said Iran might retaliate today, tomorrow or in months or a year from now. Iran or its proxies might blow up a bus filled with American tourists in Cyprus. No one knows what comes next. Bombing Iran.

started something that we no longer have the capacity to predict or contain. I said, Siri, please describe Iran's behavior from 1979 until now. That was the state of play already. And because they do war through terrorist proxies like Hamas and Hezbollah and the Houthis, sometimes people don't recognize that as Iran. Marjorie Taylor Greene was saying, I don't know anyone who's been injured by Iran. And I was like, yes, you do. Because there's tons of soldiers in the state of Georgia

who have been injured or killed by Iranian proxies. That's a really important thing to remember. And I think the state of play now, minus nuclear capabilities and having destroyed much of that, we don't have the exact damage assessments at this point, but having destroyed much of that, we are...

undoubtedly safer with this same regime not having the nuclear capabilities than having it. Then you get to the question of is this Libya and will it become an unstable region for that reason? But again, I think

even unstable without nuclear capabilities is better than what we had. Right. And also about the proxies, there's a really excellent article. I think it was in yesterday's Wall Street Journal by Elliot Kaufman. It's called Benjamin Netanyahu versus Qasem Soleimani. And the part that I want people to know is this three months before the 2020 U.S. killing of Qasem Soleimani,

The legendary Quds Force commander laid out his life's work. Quote, this is a quote from Soleimani. I have assembled for you six armies outside Iran and I've created a corridor 1,500 kilometers long and 1,000 kilometers wide all the way to the shores of the Mediterranean, Soleimani told Iran's army chiefs. Any enemy that decides to fight against Islamic State

and against the sacred regime of the Islamic Republic of Iran will have to go through these six armies. It won't be able to do so. And Elliot writes, yet Israel did rather than circumvent Soleimani's strategy. Jerusalem has fought Tehran on its own terms of Soleimani's six armies. Only the Houthis and Iraq's popular mobilization units have escaped.

Israel fought through Hamas, Islamic Jihad, Hezbollah, wiping out their leadership and slicing up their missile arsenals, leaving the Assad regime in Syria to crumble without support. The proxies mattered. And again, our alliance with Israel matters that we had the same goal of taking out the Iranian nuclear program. And in order to do that, Israel had to fight through these armies first. That is what allyship should be about. That is what allies do for each other.

Well, and from the safety perspective back home, and that's why this huge window up, well, no, not huge window, a small window of opportunity, because if you leave them to their own devices, they will rebuild all of those missile capabilities that had just been taken out.

by Israel, which made this much safer to attempt. They're weaker than they've ever been because of Israel's work. We didn't have to do a lot of that work. Israel did almost all of it. We have capabilities to do this last part where you can go deep into the bunkers with these massive ordnance penetrators, which I believe this is the first time they've been used for the thing they're supposed to be used for. And at this moment, they are quite possibly weaker than they will ever be in the future.

because they hadn't begun to rebuild those capacities. So again, I believe, I know there are people who don't, there's a completely different philosophy from the Tommy Vitors of the world that if you just talk to these people and you give them a bunch of money and you let Iranian assets sit inside the American government and influence people and you open the border to whoever you want to for four years to let unvetted people come in and like maybe start sleeper cells, that that will succeed in bringing safety. But to me,

that doesn't look like peace. That looks like danger. And taking out this operation in a successful way looks a lot more close to peace. Exactly. It is a more peaceful time in the Middle East today because of Americans' actions over the weekend. And anybody who disagrees with that is simply wrong. Again, it may not have seemed like we were at war with Iran all along, but we have been. And

That's a reality that we have to face. I'm going to throw this one out there because I just want to give it some space. I am not of the mind that you need congressional approval for a bombing run. I don't think that's ever been the case in my lifetime. But some are making that argument now. Some of them...

There are some people who are making that who have been consistent on it for many years. There are some who are making that argument who think it's unconstitutional when Trump does a bombing run without congressional approval, but not when Obama did a bombing run with congressional approval, which is that's Nancy Pelosi's position is that Libya, good, this, bad.

Yeah. There's also the fact that we last month bombed the Houthis for weeks. Yeah, for like weeks. Nobody said anything. Is it just because this involves Israel? Is it just that this is a bigger power? But I think Iran has been exposed as not being this superpower that we were all worried it was becoming. And again, you know, with the nuclear program, it would have been a different story. But

So we've done these kinds of bombings without congressional approval. The thing is, I would love for Congress to go back to being the, you know, the permission giver for all kinds of things. But you can't don't don't don't tell me you're starting right now. Don't tell me this. This is the one that you need to. This is the one that we need permission for. All the other ones were were irrelevant. I just don't buy it.

Yeah, I don't either. I do think it seems like the rift that we addressed last week, which we noted,

happens mostly at like upper level policy discussions and or online instead of in the real world, I think that will remain the case. If this was a successful mission, which, you know, already seems so by being undetected and everybody getting home safe, if it was also successful in reaching, you know, the goal that we wanted to reach, American voters largely have no issue with that. Right. They are pro.

Pro, as I call it, Trump's doctrine of occasional bellicosity. Like, I'm just going to shoot somebody and then I'm going to come home. Like, he's not interested in the second part. Now, he truthed about regime change, which got people a little nervous. But what he's saying is, OK, Iranian people, you can make Iran great again.

M-I-G-A. MIGA. Right. His actual truth tweet, whatever. It's not politically correct to use the term regime change, but if the current Iranian regime is unable to make Iran great again, why wouldn't there be a regime change? MIGA. Make Iran great again. Yeah.

when he's good, he's so good. I can't. I also enjoyed the quote from his address, which was his address was really solid. When he came out, I knew he was going to nail it because I was looking for short and sweet. Like you don't need a lot after this. And I didn't want him on a bunch of Trumpian tangents. He came out, he nailed the name of all three sites. And I was like,

My dude has been practicing and he nailed that. He went on for just a few minutes and not without Trumpian flourish. My favorite one was, uh, you know, if they do anything else, you know, the, the consequences will be much bigger than this and much easier. Right. Yeah.

My favorite was, we love God. We love God. Can I say that I think, because I am a person of faith, I think there is providence involved in this. I think there is providence in John Paul II, Thatcher, and Reagan being aligned against communism. I think there is providence in Bibi Netanyahu and Trump against all odds serving together twice and getting like a do-over on this.

Right. And I think I really do think Trump was never the God guy. And I'm also a person of faith. I believe in God and I always thought that God plays a hand in a lot of what we see happening.

But Trump wasn't. And I think that the attempt on his life in Butler really changed him. You could see it in so many different ways around him. But at the end of the address, he said, I just want to thank everybody, in particular, God. I want to just say we love you, God, and we love our great military. Protect them. God bless the Middle East. God bless Israel. And God bless America. You know, it's...

It's really wonderful to see him in that place. Of course, there's a lot of people who are concerned about it. The Daily Beast headline yesterday was Donald Trump's strange God talk has people concerned. It does not have me concerned. It has me very happy, actually, that.

This is another deep divide between elite commentary and normal people. Normal people regularly have thoughts about how God is directing their lives and hope to put God's blessing on various missions and various leaders. That's a very normal thought for normal people to have. But in the Daily Beast newsroom and the New York Times newsroom, not so much. Right. Yeah. How dare he?

I don't want to be triumphalist about it, but I do think he took a very brave chance. He was decisive in the ways that I think made him worth voting for over... Oh, gosh. Imagine a Harris administration right now. Imagine Kamala Harris right now. I just...

Oh, gosh. And when I said that earlier about the Iranian assets in the American government, these things are real. These are real stories that don't get a lot of play. But in the Biden government, there were Iranian folks just hanging around, advising, influencing from outside and inside. They gave the Obama administration authorized giving them billions in just pallets of cash. While they said, wink, wink, I'm sure you guys won't build a bomb, right? Right. And it's just...

brain dead. Like, I don't understand anything about that philosophy. I think this one is better. And I think we would have been unsafe with Harris in office. Fully, fully agree. We're going to take a short break and come right back with Normally.

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a few days ago, Nate Silver is the 538 polling guy. He was at the New York Times before. His graph showed the liberal conservative happiness gap and how it persists across all demographics. Like literally, it doesn't matter your race. It's on every single race of conservative is happier versus every race of liberal. Every age cohort is happier. Every educational attainment

group is happier when they are conservative. Overall, the number is 68% of conservatives are happy versus 53% of liberals. I would say, you know, the postgraduate cohort is supposedly the happiest one. 75% of postgraduate conservatives are happy. 60% of postgraduate liberals are happy. And I would just say it shows. It really does. It's

This was not at all surprising to me. I thought that this would be obvious to everybody. Income is another one. People who make over 100K tend to be happier. 74% of conservatives who make over 100K are happy versus 60% of liberals. None of this is surprising to me. Well, and the one that a lot of people are flagging is that conservatives who make 30K a year

are exactly as happy as liberals who make 100k. That's amazing. That is quite a stat. And

Look, I don't want to overread this stuff, but it's been consistent over many different types of studies, different types of polling. Obviously, this is self-reported, but your self-reported happiness matters. If you perceive yourself as happy, that's part of how it works. There is...

there's some theory, of course, that liberals over-report mental illness and also that conservatives under-report it, right? Because it might not be in their cohort fashionable to say, like, I'm dealing with this or that. Also, though, liberals incentivize having some sort of mental malady to earn the right to be heard or to exist within their

coalition, right? You have to be like, yeah, I am just like a white lady, but also look at my three conditions. And that's why I'm an okay person. There's also our buddy Ian Miller on X posted because the worldview of the political left requires a delusional obsession with trying to solve mostly non-existent problems. They replace religion with politics when their politics are never ending uphill battle against reality.

That makes sense to me as well. A lot of people are saying, Oh, conservatives are lying. They're just lying about their happiness. Why, why would you lie? Oh, by the way, I think, I think lying about your own happiness probably leads you to be a little bit happier. There's, there's, there's all the things that show repeatedly that,

that they serve happiness conservatives are into building families, uh, cherishing that family time, having faith. Uh, these are like the things that liberals have to sort of do begrudgingly that we do happily are the things that actually show repeatedly create happiness. We also, I think have people, particularly people of faith have an acceptance that we live in a fallen world and therefore things will not progress to perfection. Yeah.

Yeah, via government program or our lives or whatever it is. And so you sort of you're playing with that built in. And you understand that life is hard and that you cherish the beautiful moments more is my experience with our cohort versus others who don't have faith.

Yeah, absolutely. And Abigail Schreier wrote this in her last book. But you know, the more you wallow in your unhappiness, the worse you feel. And it's, it's why her book is called bad therapy, I recommend it to everybody all the time. But it's why kids who go to therapy actually don't end up

being happier, they end up being less happy because they're constantly talking about their problems and wallowing in those problems makes you less happy. And there's nothing the left enjoys more than the wallowing. I think this, it does seem sort of obvious what's happening here. Uh, and the, you know, I'm going to raise my kids in the faith and also, you know, with conservative values and thinking that America is just the greatest and not wallowing or being victims.

I would do that anyway because I'm me, but I would do it on the evidence if I were honestly reading the evidence because I think their outcomes will be better. That is the truth. Well, thanks for joining us on Normally. Normally airs Tuesdays and Thursdays, and you can subscribe anywhere you get your podcasts. Get in touch with us at normallythepod at gmail.com. Thanks for listening, and when things get weird, act normally.

Did you know that adults 60 plus lose more than $60 billion each year to financial exploitation? Greenlight's new Family Shield plan empowers you to monitor your loved one's accounts for suspicious activity. Watch out for their safety with place alerts and protect them with up to $1 million in identity theft coverage. Protect your seniors today at greenlight.com slash family shield. That's greenlight.com slash family shield.

Residents at Brightview Senior Living Communities enjoy enhanced possibilities, independence, and choice. Brightview Dulles Corner in Herndon and Brightview Great Falls offer vibrant senior independent living, assisted living, and memory care services through various daily programs and cultural events.

Chef-prepared meals, safety and security, transportation, resort-style amenities, and high-quality care. Everything you need is here. Discover more at brightviewseniorliving.com. Equal housing opportunity.

Toyota is the best resale value brand for 2025, according to kellybluebookskbb.com. And with a wide range of dependable vehicles for any lifestyle, you can get everything you need in a vehicle today while investing in tomorrow. So choose Toyota and choose value. Shop via toyota.com for great deals and more. Vehicles projected resale value is specific to the 2025 model year. For more information, visit kellybluebookskbb.com. Kelly Blue Book is a registered trademark of Kelly Blue Book Co. Inc.

Toyota, let's go places.

See how life insurers put life into America at acli.com. Paid for by the American Council of Life Insurers. Looking for a better soda that still hits the spot? Meet SunCip.

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