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cover of episode Can The India-Pakistan Ceasefire Hold?

Can The India-Pakistan Ceasefire Hold?

2025/5/13
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What A Day
AI Deep Dive Transcript
People
B
Besant
J
Jane Koston
J
Josh Hawley
J
Joshua Keating
M
Mike Lee
R
Ricky Joy Levy
Topics
Joshua Keating: 我认为这次印巴冲突的规模是前所未有的，双方的风险承受能力都在上升。巴基斯坦的核武器威胁对印度总理莫迪来说已经不像以前那么有效了，印度更愿意承担升级的风险。莫迪将自己塑造成一个对恐怖分子强硬的领导人，并将此与印度民族主义意识形态结合，这导致了与巴基斯坦的紧张关系。印度政府认为，在印度发动袭击的组织不仅受到巴基斯坦政府的容忍，实际上还得到了他们的支持。巴基斯坦的穆尼尔将军在某种程度上是莫迪的镜像，他的宗教色彩很浓厚，这加剧了宗派冲突。巴基斯坦政府长期以来对在其境内活动的武装组织睁一只眼闭一只眼。停火协议可能会维持，但边境小规模交火并不罕见，大规模战斗预计会减少。印巴双方都取得了一些可以称之为胜利的东西，这表明他们有动力缓和局势。社交媒体上的民族主义狂热推动了军事反应，同时也让双方更容易宣布胜利并缓和局势。由于对中国的不信任，印度政府与美国的关系更加紧密，而巴基斯坦与美国的关系变得复杂，同时巴基斯坦也与中国走近。尽管美国最初表示不干涉印巴冲突，但如果局势失控，美国必须介入。巴基斯坦的声明提到了美国在停火中的作用，而印度没有，这表明印度不希望显得受到美国的约束。 Jane Koston: 印巴冲突的根源可以追溯到英国殖民时期，领土划分遗留问题是冲突的导火索。虽然达成了停火协议，但零星冲突不断，局势依旧紧张。美国在其中扮演的角色复杂，起初试图置身事外，但最终还是介入促成了停火谈判。社交媒体在冲突中扮演了重要角色，双方都在利用媒体宣传各自的立场，使得局势更加复杂。

Deep Dive

Shownotes Transcript

India and Pakistan announced a ceasefire Saturday, after days of fighting along their shared border and in the contested region of Kashmir. While the agreement between the two nuclear powers appeared to be holding, both sides blamed the other for violating the deal. The latest conflict was ignited by a terrorist attack last month in the section of Kashmir controlled by India, but the two countries have been fighting over the disputed region for decades, since the end of British rule and the 1947 partition. Joshua Keating, senior correspondent for Vox covering national security and foreign policy, explains why this latest round of conflict is different.

And in headlines: President Donald Trump ordered pharmaceutical companies to voluntarily lower their U.S. drug prices, Missouri Republican Sen. Josh Hawley blasted his party over its plans to slash hundreds of billions of dollars from Medicaid, and the U.S. and China agreed to temporarily slash their tariffs.

Show Notes: