Deep Dive
Shownotes Transcript
It's Tuesday, April 1st. I'm Jane Koston. This is What A Day, the show that's not doing an April Fool's Day thing, because look around. Things are weird and confusing enough. On today's show, Republicans sweat over a pair of special congressional elections in Florida, and the Trump administration says it deported more alleged gang members to El Salvador.
But let's start by talking about tariffs, which is not a beautiful word. You know what is a beautiful word? Aurora. Big fan of the word Aurora. Anyway, tomorrow is, according to the Trump administration, Liberation Day, in which President Donald Trump plans to announce tariffs on a host of other countries to make America rich or something. Which countries? Well, um...
I don't know. And neither does President Trump. Here he is on Air Force One Sunday. On the tariffs that you're planning, so there are, you're expecting to hit something like 10 to 15 countries, is that right? No, no. All of the countries? Across the board? Not 10, I don't know, who told you 10 or 15 countries? Well, we heard that, so we heard that.
I heard that you were going to aim for the 10%. But you didn't hear it from me. So how many countries will be in that initial trunch? You'd start with all countries. So let's see what happens. There are many countries. There are many countries. That's true.
Anyway, what Donald Trump does know, despite all of the evidence available from economists across the political spectrum, is that everything is going to be awesome. And there is definitely no chance of stagflation. Stagnant growth combined with high inflation rates that made the 1970s only cool for music reasons, not economic ones.
Instead, things are going to go, well, here's Trump. This country is going to be more successful than it ever was. It's going to boom. We're going to have boomtown USA. We're going to boom. Boom.
Now, businesses love plans. They do not like surprises or adjusting their budgets on the fly. Which is a problem, because we are recording this on Monday evening, and as of right now, we have no idea what Trump will do with tariffs. Seriously, he's been asked. Here he is in the Oval Office Monday. Universal tariff for different individual tariff rates on a whole variety of different... What you're going to see in two days, which is maybe...
tomorrow night or probably Wednesday, you're going to see. And they're reciprocal. And neither do business leaders and political figures whose cities and towns depend on businesses that work across international borders. The Republican mayor of Rochester Hills, Michigan, Brian Burnett, is a good example. Rochester Hills is a focal point for the auto industry in Michigan. Here he is on CNN Monday.
We've gone through really challenging times in southeast Michigan before, and I'm not sure, you know, these are just negotiation tactics. I hope the president and his team are able to move quickly. I was pleased that he had a very positive meeting with the prime minister at the end of last week. But the uncertainty, you know, you see the markets reacting to it. It's daunting. It's impossible to prepare. You think this could lead to job losses in Rochester Hills?
I think it could very quickly. I think most of the folks I'm talking to say, you know, they can survive this kind of back and forth for about maybe 30 days. So to tell us more about tariffs and the Trump administration's plan for them, I spoke with Neil Irwin, chief economic correspondent for Axios.
Neil, welcome to What A Day. Thanks for having me. Okay, so Wednesday is Liberation Day, as the White House would have us believe. What is actually going to happen that day in terms of the tariffs that are going into effect?
Well, we think what they're going to announce is a series of tariffs on a lot of countries, maybe 10, 15, 20 percent, layered on top of all the other stuff that's been announced. Auto tariffs, you know, fentanyl-driven tariffs on Mexico and Canada. So this is kind of the big one. This is the big escalation of this trade war to be not just Mexico, Canada, China, but also the entire world, or at least a large chunk of it, in ways that, you know, we might start to see at the supermarket.
Why don't we know exactly what's going to happen on Wednesday? Because if I know anything about businesses, they like certainty. Yeah, look, there's been dueling leaks over the last few weeks where you can almost see the push and pull of one set of advisors, more economics-based, more pro-business, really would like to see these used cautiously, gingerly, tactically. You know, you implement a tariff to get some concession, then you back off once you get that concession. That's one foreshadowing.
kind of faction within the administration. The other is saying, no, tariffs are a good thing in and of themselves. We got to ramp up this trade war, rebalance the entire U.S. economy, raise revenue for years and years to come. And that this, you know, even if there's some pain, it's worth it. It's fine if there's a downturn. And ultimately, the question is where the president comes down. And his latest round of comments suggest he's coming down with the hardliners, which kind of aligns with his personal instincts.
Also, you mentioned that these tariffs are going to be on top of other tariffs that have already been announced. So is Mexico going to be paying like a 50% tariff on avocados? Am I ever going to have guacamole again? How is this going to work?
Yeah, it's that's that seems to be what they're talking about. The stacking them is what people refer to. There's been no hint that, OK, the Mexican tariffs are net of the what was already announced. And these auto tariffs last week are a big deal. You know, 25 percent. You know, if you buy an imported car or even a U.S. made car that has imported parts, which is basically all of them, you know, you could be looking at some of the estimates are four or five, six thousand dollars in additional cost on your on your new car.
So if these are all layered on top of that, even if they're not huge in isolation, suddenly you might be getting at a 50, 60% tax on certain items from certain countries. And so, yeah, you're right. That is the kind of thing that people will notice, right? And this gets back to 2018, 2019. People think, you know, there was the trade war, there were tariffs. I didn't really notice it. Inflation was low. And that's true.
But those were a lot smaller, a lot more targeted, and especially targeted to not affect consumer goods, but more kind of intermediate things, steel and aluminum, things like that, that you don't buy directly. And that's why that wasn't as significant an experience as what we're expecting after this is implemented.
How are U.S. businesses responding to all of this uncertainty, especially those that are directly affected by these planned tariffs, like car makers, as you said? I mean, I saw that the mayor of Rochester Hills, Michigan, was on CNN on Monday talking about how, like, he doesn't know what to do or what to tell people who are coming to him.
So look, in the near term, there are only three options. One is you raise your prices and, you know, just suffer the loss of demand. Two is you take a reduction to your profit margins. You eat it as a company and say, I'm just going to, you know, pay these taxes and it comes out of my margins. Three is you try and force it on your suppliers and try and get companies in other countries who are supplying you to eat it in their profit margins.
That's the near term. In the medium term, you can consider reshoring, building domestic factories. That takes time, right? So if you're an automaker and suddenly your parts are coming in and have a 25% or greater tariff attached to them, you can't just flip the switch and have a new auto plant overnight. That's a medium-term investment, and that's where the kind of volatility of this policy is problematic, right?
If you are a CEO and you're not sure whether this policy will even be there a month from now, six months from now, let alone four years from now, you don't want to spend a billion dollars on that new car factory. So that's one of the internal tensions of this kind of messy policy process. Have businesses indicated which of these admittedly not great options they're leaning toward?
It varies a lot by industry. You know, if you're in a low margin kind of commodity business, if you make drywall, you know, an imported gypsum from Canada suddenly is a lot more expensive. Well, all of your competitors have that same issue and your margins are so thin, you kind of just have to pass it on and hope for the best. If you're in a high margin business, some really high end kind of machine tools, things like that, machinery, you know, maybe you do have the room to exploit that and take a
temporary hit, but you gain market share and some of your competitors are worse off. So I think we're going to see it highly variable. You know, I would put agriculture in that kind of low margin, not a lot of room to maneuver field. So that's where if you do, assuming these do apply to produce and other kind of food products, that's where you might see Mexican produce, avocados, as you say, more expensive in the months ahead.
And that means a lot for everyday people like me or you or most people. So how is the average consumer feeling about all of this? Look, all the sentiment measures, all the measures of what people expect for the economy have really taken a dive in the last few months, really just since January. We just got the University of Michigan sentiment numbers on Friday. Expectations have declined a lot for Republicans since Inauguration Day. They're really in the pits for Democrats and independents.
You know, people are starting to become aware of this and starting to worry what it means for them. I'll say, look, I think a lot of Trump swing voters in this last election on some level wanted it to go back to normal again, wanted to go back to 2019 and have nice low inflation, low prices. And we're hoping that he could deliver that. If we do see grocery prices, car prices, some of these products become more expensive. They're not going to like what they see based on, you know, the survey evidence I see.
Yeah, I mean, Trump took back the White House in 2024 in large part because Americans believed he could bring back 2019 and bring down the price of goods, and they trusted him more on the issue of the economy. But multiple polls have shown Americans are losing faith in him on these pocketbook issues while he's yelling about Greenland. What could getting this wrong potentially mean for his presidency?
I mean, look, let me describe it a different way. The team around him thinks you're ripping off the Band-Aid. You're causing some short-term pain for what they view as a stronger domestic economy, stronger manufacturing base in the years to come. I think the—
experience shows that people really don't like recessions. People really, really don't like inflation. And so if you have a stagflationary environment, if you have a mild downturn or stagnant growth or even a recession paired with elevated inflation, that's bad news. But, you know, look, the president talks about this all the time. He wants tariffs to be a meaningful piece of U.S. revenue and pay for the federal government, which was true in the 1890s when we had a much smaller government. But that's that's his goal.
I mean, we have seen Trump back away from his plans for tariffs or delay them. That's happened a couple of times. I'm aware we don't know. But what is the likelihood that happens again?
Yes, but you're right that he's announced some things or announced them on social media and then backed away or reduced their impact. You know, but these auto tariffs last week are real. That's 25 percent. You know, he has shown a greater willingness this time around. I take it seriously. I take it literally, you know, to use the old term. You know, the exact timing, the exact products. Will there be some exceptions and some exclusions?
Probably. But by and large, will the goods that U.S. businesses import get more expensive? I think that's more likely than not. If the White House gets this wrong, could we end up in a recession?
Yeah, certainly. You know, I think most of the forecasts that people have tried to sketch out, it lowers GDP growth, but not to recessionary levels. But, you know, throw in some other things, throw in unpredictable retaliation from trade partners, throw in if, you know, Doge federal cutbacks get large enough to really impact
aggregate demand and spending. You can tell a story where this kind of cycles through the economy. You know, if tariffs get high enough, it really hits the stock market more than it has so far. That creates people have less wealth. They might spend less. So if you add up all these channels, you can get to the point where you can model and believe that a recession is coming. That said, the tariffs, you know, 15, 20 percent, you know, in terms of the scale of the entire U.S. economy, that would just mean slower GDP growth, probably not a recession. The question is how that combines with everything else going on in the world.
Neil, thank you so much for joining me. Really appreciate it. A lot of fun. That was my conversation with Neil Irwin, chief economic correspondent for Axios. We'll link to his work in our show notes. We'll get to more of the news in a moment. But if you like the show, make sure to subscribe, leave a five-star review on Apple Podcasts, watch us on YouTube, and share with your friends. More to come after some ads.
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Look, we know things don't feel great right now, but we can equip ourselves for the unprecedented months ahead without letting the news overwhelm us. Join us each week at Strict Scrutiny as we break down the cases that will decide the rules we all have to live by. We'll supplement your daily news diet with a dose of necessary legal analysis and a healthy serving of our Real Housewives takes.
Here's what else we're following today. Headlines. People have done an incredible job. You know, I got elected on the basis of getting bad people out of our country that shouldn't be here. Very dangerous people out of our country. And that's what I did.
President Donald Trump celebrated the news Monday that his administration deported more migrants, alleging they were members of the Salvadoran gang MS-13 and the Venezuelan gang Trenda Iragua. According to a statement from Secretary of State Marco Rubio, the U.S. military flew 17 migrants he called, quote, violent criminals to a prison in El Salvador Sunday night.
The statement did not provide any details on who was deported or what their crimes were, just that the group allegedly included, quote, murderers and rapists, and that the deportations were part of a, quote, counterterrorism operation with El Salvador. Earlier this month, the Trump administration said it deported more than 100 Venezuelan migrants to El Salvador under the Alien Enemies Act.
It's unclear if Sunday's deportations were carried out under the wartime law that allows the U.S. to deport migrants without due process. If so, it would be a violation of a federal court ruling that orders officials to halt any deportations under the act, while a legal challenge to the administration's use of the law is heard. Trump asked the Supreme Court to lift the order last week and allow the U.S. to resume deportations while the case plays out. As of our recording, the high court has not weighed in.
U.S. Attorney General Pam Bondi said Monday that she has instructed the Department of Justice to dismiss its lawsuit against a Georgia voting law.
Former U.S. Attorney General Merrick Garland sued Georgia back in 2021 under President Joe Biden, alleging that the law sought to suppress Black voters. The law limited access to ballot drop boxes in several counties and added a voter ID requirement for absentee voters. But most alarmingly, it gave the GOP-led state the power to bypass county election boards and theoretically remove any election officials and disqualify any voters it wants to.
Republicans passed the legislation after President Trump lost his re-election bid in 2020. In a press release Monday, Bondi said, quote, Georgians deserve secure elections, not fabricated claims of false voter suppression meant to divide us. Bondi also claimed that Black voter turnout, quote, actually increased after Georgia's new election rules went into effect. She's not completely wrong.
A study by the Brennan Center last December found that the number of ballots cast by Black voters in Georgia did increase between 2020 and 2024. But that increase was not proportional to the number of Black voters eligible to vote in the state.
Earlier this week, we told you about the big state Supreme Court race happening today in Wisconsin. But Florida is also holding two special congressional elections today. The seats in the House up for grabs were previously held by Michael Waltz, who is now President Trump's national security advisor and at the center of the whole Signalgate scandal thing.
and former Republican Representative Matt Gaetz, who resigned his seat after Trump tapped him to be attorney general, only to watch his nomination go up in flames amid a House ethics investigation. Trump won both Florida districts by more than 30 points in November. But now, Democrat Josh Wheal is giving Republicans some major anxiety. ♪
The public school teacher is running against GOP state senator Randy Fine to fill Walz's seat. The race has attracted millions in campaign donations, and some polls show it's a lot tighter than expected. Here's Weill in a video posted to Twitter Monday encouraging people to vote. This isn't just about winning this seat. This is about starting a movement across the nation where we start taking seat after seat back.
Republicans currently have a two-seat majority in the House, with four vacancies. And the anxiety the White House is feeling over those Florida races was on full display last week, when Trump asked another one of his cabinet picks, New York Representative Elise Stefanik, to stay in the House instead, rather than tee up another special election. When you found out you were not coming home, what was your first thought?
Meanwhile, I get anxious if an Uber ride takes too long. NASA astronauts Butch Wilmore and Sonny Williams made a public appearance Monday after their long-awaited return to Earth last month.
We all know the story by now. The pair launched into space last year on a Boeing Starliner capsule for what was supposed to be a three-hour tour. Okay, for the youths out there, that's a reference to Gilligan's Island. In all seriousness, the trip was supposed to last about a week. But problems with the capsule extended their stay at the International Space Station to almost 300 days. What?
Williams told reporters at a news briefing in Houston Monday that the first thing she wanted to do when she got back was hug her husband and dogs. And of course, she said she ate a good grilled cheese sandwich. And in an interview that aired Monday with Fox News' Bill Hammer, Wilmore opened up about being, quote, stuck in space. Okay, in certain respects, we were stuck.
In certain respects, maybe we were stranded, but based on how they were couching this, that we were left and forgotten and all that, we were nowhere near any of that at all. So stuck, okay, we didn't get to come home the way we planned. So in one definition, we're stuck, but in the big scheme of things, we weren't stuck. And when asked if they'd go back...
If I'm called to go back, sure, I'll go back, Sonny. I'd go back. Absolutely. I love being in space. Space is great. I joke around that it's a little vacation from Earth. That's why they are astronauts and I'm a podcast host. Because, man, I love the ground. And that's the news. One more thing.
I voted for this. If you've been online or around some of Donald Trump's legion of weird fans, not the people who voted for him, mind you, the fans, they'll say this in response to basically anything he does or is rumored to be doing. But I have to ask, did you? Now, I'll level with you. I did not vote for Donald Trump. Maybe you figured that out.
Because I do not like immigration restrictionism, and I do not think the economy of 2019 was the zenith of humanity. But based on conversations with people who did, and looking at the data and polling, many people who voted for Donald Trump did do so on the basis of those two issues, the economy and immigration. Maybe something about ending reckless military engagements overseas. Ha! But seriously, the economy and immigration.
According to the Associated Press, quote, those who said inflation was the most important factor for their vote were almost twice as likely to support Trump over Harris. And about six in 10 voters who said the economy and jobs were the most important issue facing the country were in his camp. But it seems to me that Donald Trump thinks people voted for him to do basically any weird shit that enters his strange little head. A mandate, for lack of a better term, to do, well, nothing.
anything. For example, annexing Greenland. See, I did a little research, and from January 2024 to Election Day, I could only find one reference to the idea. A Newsweek article from March of last year referencing Trump's first-term interest in the island that had never amounted to anything. The article doesn't even have a quote from the campaign. And yet now, Greenland is apparently deeply critical to the future of the United States. Sure. Now, I'll be honest. Personally,
I think some people, once again, believe that the policies Donald Trump talked about the most were the policies he just wasn't going to do. Like tariffs. Donald Trump loves tariffs. But according to the Wall Street Journal, a host of business leaders chose to believe that Donald Trump would be the Trump of, say, 2019. Quote, investors assumed Donald Trump's second term would be like his first, giving priority to tax cuts, deregulation, and economic growth.
tariffs would come later after lengthy deliberations. Trump would treat the stock market as his real-time report card. Oh, honey, no. That was old Trump. New Trump is doing tariffs right now and says that maybe we'll have some bad times, like a recession on the road to something. Here he is on Fox News last month. Are you expecting a recession this year? Um,
I hate to predict things like that. There is a period of transition because what we're doing is very big. We're bringing wealth back to America. That's a big thing. And there are always periods of, it takes a little time. It takes a little time. But I think it should be great for us. I mean, I think it should be great. So it's not very surprising to me that Americans who once thought that Trump's policies were going to make their lives better don't think that anymore.
According to a new CBS News YouGov poll, in January, 42% of Americans thought Trump's policies were going to make them better off. Now, 42% of Americans think the exact opposite.
Trump had support on two issues. That is, two. Dos. Zwei. Issues. But he decided that actually, Americans wanted him to go after vaccines, the island of Greenland, the nation of Canada, and, uh, follow that up by talking about a third term in office. And no, you didn't vote for that. But that's what we're getting. Sorry.
Before we go, hey, Wisconsin, you guys have a super important state Supreme Court election today between a qualified judge named Susan Crawford and a MAGA guy backed by Elon Musk. This is the first major race since Trump won in November and will determine the majority on the Wisconsin Supreme Court. Get everything you need to vote today at votesaveamerica.com, paid for by Vote Save America. You can learn more at votesaveamerica.com. This ad has not been authorized by any candidate or candidates committee.
That's all for today. If you like the show, make sure you subscribe, leave a review, enjoy the fact that you are not personally related to Elon Musk in any form, and tell your friends to listen. And if you're into reading, and not just about how when I was a kid, I kind of wished my family was famous or notable in some way, and now I absolutely do not wish that because, whoa boy, that sounds awful. Like me, What Today is also a nightly newsletter. Check it out and subscribe at crooked.com slash subscribe. I'm Jane Koston, and hooray for boring families.
Waterday is a production of Crooked Media. It's recorded and mixed by Desmond Taylor. Our associate producers are Raven Yamamoto and Emily Fore. Our producer is Michelle Alloy. We had production help today from Johanna Case, Joseph Dutra, Greg Walters, and Julia Clare. Our senior producer is Erica Morrison, and our executive producer is Adrienne Hill. Our theme music is by Colin Gillyard and Kashaka. Our production staff is proudly unionized with the Writers Guild of America East.