No Spin News - Weekend Edition - June 14, 2025
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Welcome to the No Spin News Weekend Edition. The House, as you know, on May 22nd passed the spending bill by one, 215 to 214. Two Republicans voted against it, Massey and Davidson in the House. All Democrats voted against Trump's spending bill. Now the Senate has a lot of trouble because conservative senators don't want this amount of spending. They don't want it too high.

But if the bill fails, then automatically there are tax rises. We'll put them up on a full screen. I'll tell you for radio what it is. So the average individual tax, what you and I pay for working, will go up 2.5% automatically. But this is the most important thing. 50% of the deductions that we all file with the IRS go away, which rockets.

how much money Americans will pay to the government. That's not passed, it's nothing. That just kicks in if this bill goes down. If that happens, it'll likely a recession will follow. If the recession follows, then the Republicans will lose the midterm elections and Donald Trump will be doomed. It's not just about spending. It's about holding power in America.

Joining us now from Washington is a senator who does not like the bill. I said he might not vote for the bill, Ron Johnson of Wisconsin. My positioning this in a fallacious, word of the day, way, Senator. I think you have a pretty accurate assessment. I don't really disagree with it. And by the way, the bill as it goes, as far as it goes, I don't have too many problems with. The problem is it just simply doesn't go far enough. And if we do this

is a one and done bill and we don't do anything further, and that's pretty much the indication we have, we're simply not addressing the massive long-term debt and deficit that, from my standpoint, is the biggest issue here. So let me just throw a couple numbers at you, just put these things in perspective. In 2019, we spent $4.4 trillion.

This year, we spent over $7 trillion. That's a 58% increase. Next year, about 7.3. But here's the one that I've really been focusing on now, average deficits over the last presidential terms. Obama came in, shot deficits up almost $1.3 trillion average in his first four years.

But then the Tea Party, I'm part of that, came in. We put some restraint. That got knocked down to about $550 billion a year for his four years. Trump came in, had a due deal with Democrats. That went up to about $810 billion per year. Then you had COVID, a $3.1 trillion deficit, just a massive bipartisan spending spurt.

And responsible leadership would realize, okay, that's an aberration. We got to return to pre-pandemic levels. We should have gotten down really below $5 trillion in spending and certainly below $1 trillion in deficits. That's not what happened. We kept spending at pandemic levels. Biden averaged deficits of $1.9 trillion.

And if you look at the scoring of the big, beautiful bill right now, those deficits just continue to increase from about $2.2 trillion in the next four years up to about, I think, $2.9 trillion. That's off the top of my head. Again, we're not bending the deficit curve down. Now, I'm going to be issuing a report I've been working on over the weekend. We're doing different scenarios based on different growth scenarios. You literally have to get to about 4% growth.

before you start bending that deficit curve down, that trajectory down toward balance. 3%, that kind of flattens it out to averages about $2.1 trillion in deficits over the next 10 years. Again, I'm just not willing to accept that as new normal. Okay. Now, what you just said, nobody understands. I'm sorry about that. It's all right.

It's impossible. It's impossible. No average voter. So I'm a simple man, and I'm putting myself in your seat. I'm a senator. And here's my calculation. You're right. The federal government spending is wildly out of control. And the waste is phenomenal. And our system needs to be more disciplined. You're right. But we're in a crossroads in history here.

where the Democratic Party doesn't want any spending cuts, maybe a little in defense, but they don't want any. You know it. Everybody knows it. They want to increase it. In fact, more. They don't even want supervision of Medicaid, which we'll do tomorrow. They don't want any reform. They hated Musk. They hate Doge. They don't want anything. That's where you start. The Republican Party is the party of responsibility now fiscally.

But if the Republican Party gets its butt kicked in 26, it's over and the gates open and you'll have way more spending than you have now. Is that true? You're right. Listen, it's easy to be. OK, wait, wait. Stop. Stop. Go ahead. So I'm right. OK. So what Trump has done and I know this because I have access to the president. He says, I know this bill.

Jack spending. But my tariffs are going to bring down the deficit and debt. And as you know, the recent report in one month, the tariffs have cut the deficit in half.

So Trump says, I'm going to get my trade deals. We don't know whether he will or not. OK, and then all the money coming into the Treasury is going to bring this stuff down. So keep me in power with no tax rise and that'll start to come down because of the money coming in. Is the president wrong?

Yes. I hate to say it, I'm in big support of the president, but right now the White House is putting out a memo saying that tariff revenue over the next 10 years will be about $2.8 trillion.

Again, that compares to a $22 trillion deficit. And by the way, if you extend the taxes, they admit that the baseline goes up to about $25 trillion. So it might reduce the deficit by about 10%. Again, it's still inadequate. And the tariff revenue is very problematic.

It's being tested in the court whether President Trump really has this executive power. If the courts decide he doesn't, and I think it, you know, again, I'm not a legal scholar when it comes to this tariff law, but if they strike that down, I doubt that Congress is going to impose sweeping tariffs like that. So, again, that revenue is very uncertain. And let me make a final point.

I support President Trump because I want him to defeat the deep state. You don't defeat the deep state by continuing to fund it at President Biden's level. So for me, it is. It's spending, spending, spending. But if you hold firm, if you hold firm, Senator, and you vote against it and others do, Republicans do, then it all blows up. If you vote for it.

I think there's a big possibility that if the economy surges, that you'll have a much bigger majority going forward where you can revisit this whole thing without the razor thin majority in the House and the Senate.

Now, you know you can introduce new spending bills anytime you want to introduce them. And if you have the power of the party controlling the Senate and the House, you can revise this kind of thing. But if you have no power, then it's over. Last word. I understand. So, again, what I've been saying is I want a commitment to a reasonable pre-pandemic level and a process.

a really strong, robust process to achieve and maintain it. Now, that gives pretty wide latitude. Again, a one-and-done single bill in this Congress, again, that's what I find unacceptable. I'm more than willing to work with the administration. You know, what is that process? You know, what can we do to make sure that we don't do a one-and-done bill?

So, again, you know, the game is not a game. You know, the process has just begun here in the Senate. And I'm just trying to make this a whole lot better. All right. And that's your job. We would have already had.

According to the House of the Board of Funding, we would have already extended current taxes, take that tax increase off the table had we done it my approach. President Trump decided one big, beautiful bill. But again, if it's a one and done bill, we're really short changing ourselves here and we're really blowing a historic opportunity. There's no guarantee we'll have the House, the Senate, and we'll have the presidency in 2027. But we can't count on having the majority in the other two chambers. So we've got to do it now.

I don't know about you have access to president. You return your calls and stuff, right? You're in dialogue with him, correct? Correct. He's not real happy with the. I mean, you know, he wants what he wants when he wants. But it's all negotiation. You know that. Are you optimistic in the end that you're going to get a bill that will pass and so that taxes will not rise? Are you optimistic there?

Yeah, we're not going to increase taxes. And by the way, I had to hold out on the Tax Cut and Jobs Act, too, because the bill delivered by the House is only going to cut taxes for 5% of American businesses. So I'm the guy that had to dig my heels and say, hey, what about the 95% of American businesses that are pass-through entities? First of all, I had to educate my colleagues in terms of what a pass-through entity was.

But again, I dug in. I got the snarly phone calls from the White House at 10 o'clock at night. But in the end, everybody thanked me for holding out. So again, I'm trying to make this a whole lot better than what it is. Again, say that- When do you think the vote, is your whole summer going to be ruined or are you going to be able to vote fairly soon?

Well, in order to get it right, getting it before July 4th, we won't have it right. So this may drag on. Again, we all want the same result. We don't want an increase. We want to fund the border. We want to take what spending reduction that the House has already pocketed and just do more and, again, have a process for starting to bend that deficit trajectory down, which this bill doesn't do, unfortunately.

All right, Senator, we really appreciate you taking the time and we'll talk again soon, I hope. Thank you. Have a great day. Let's face it, the U.S. economy is under stress. National debt rising, trade war shaking the markets. And meanwhile, China is dumping the dollar and stockpiling gold. That's why I protected my savings with physical gold and silver through the only dealer I trust, American Hartford Gold. And you can do this

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You're listening to the No Spin News Weekend Edition. In February, I did a...

event with the chief financial analyst at the Oxford Club. And you may know that I have an association with them all the way back to 2003, and they've done very well for me. And we talked about what might happen under a Trump administration in the markets. OK, but then the tariffs hit and all of that went to hell. And so Alexander Green joins us now.

So, Alex, did you have any idea these tariffs were even being discussed when we spoke in February? I did. I'm a big fan of Trump extending the 2017 tax cuts and deregulating business and extending our –

position as in the energy renaissance, but I'm not a huge fan of the tariffs and I didn't really mention the tariffs because I don't think that they're a positive thing. I do think that they're positive to the extent that we can get other countries to treat us more fairly, but just to protect American businesses is not necessarily a good thing because it raises costs and invites retaliatory actions from countries overseas. Okay, but what happened was that once the tariffs were announced, the markets went crazy in April.

And people lost a lot of money on paper. Now, I said to my audience, hang tough. And the markets did recover. But the uncertainty and the fear that came about because of the tariffs is still there. Would you disagree with that? No, I agree completely.

agree completely you can see that what happens in the market is every time that the trump administration says they're going to impose or increase tariffs the stock market goes down and every time they say that they're going to delay or reduce or negotiate away the tariffs the stock market rallies and the reason for this is is very simple bill

tariffs create uncertainty when businesses don't know what their costs are going to be. They don't buy inventory. They don't hire employees. They can't expand because they're sort of frozen by the uncertainty. And so the reason that the markets have rallied now 25 percent from the market low after Liberation Day to where we are now is simply that

investors don't believe that the worst case scenario is going to be what we're stuck with in the end, that the tariffs are going to be reduced or negotiated away. So to that extent, the market is celebrated. And that's why we're up 25 percent from the lows of two months ago. Yeah, but that's what people want to believe. That's not necessarily that would happen. So I told my audience last week that I have sold off some stocks.

that are speculative, not my core group, not the group that provides dividends, but the ones that are speculative. I sold them because anything could happen on any day. And with these Chinese negotiations and all of that, it's very complicated. Now, when I was in North Asia 10 days ago, I did not see one American car in Japan or China or Korea, not one. And I was on the road.

I mean, where are we going? And I said to myself, you know, in theory, Trump is right. We're getting a hose. These countries are not taking our cars and a lot of other of our goods. They're making it impossible for us to sell them abroad. Biden and most of the other presidents ignored it completely because it's such a hot issue and could go either way. But Trump decided to take it on. Now that leaves the investor

in the land of uncertainty, correct? That's correct. And again, to the extent that we can use the tariffs as a bargaining chip to get other countries to reduce their tariffs, I'm completely in favor. But that's what's happening, Alex. I mean, he's going to have a 10% tariff on everybody. That's the admission fee to do business in the USA. That's going to happen. He's not going to blast that out. But if they make a deal with China, and again, very complicated with China, but China's hurting.

Chinese economy is hurting big time. But investors, they're getting whipsawed every day like this. So then my question to you as a stock picker is, what do you do? Well, there's a few things you can do. First of all, I'm not a market timer. I do commend you, Bill. If you're going to lighten up your positions, do it after the big rally we've had over the last couple of months. That's what I did.

That's what I did. Good for you. But I'm an optimist long term because you can look at the long term chart at the start of the market and it goes up and to the right. So we know that things do well over time. But what you can do now is, number one, you can avoid investing in companies that are hurt by tariffs and not just by tariffs.

tariffs of countries exporting to the United States, but also countries that are exporting that face retaliatory action. So you can avoid the companies that have the big tariff problems. You should also be aware that one of the reasons you don't see a lot of American cars

on the road when you go overseas is quite frankly, they make very good cars in South Korea and Japan and other parts of Asia. The best selling sedan in the United States is the Camry, then the Corolla, and then the Civic, and then the Accord, and so on. So it's even Americans that like a lot of these Asian made cars.

But as an investor, you want to invest in those companies that have such a competitive advantage or either not hurt by the tariffs or they operate in industries that are resistant to the tariffs. A lot of service companies, for instance. Well, that takes a lot of research, though, Alex, for the individual person to figure that out.

I mean, you're going to be up real late trying to do that. No, you're right. Listen, Bill, I'm a stock picker. That's the kind of company I'm looking for. For the average investor, you know what they should really do is do what you've done with your core portfolio, which is sit tight and ride out the inevitable ups and downs because you're right. No one knows exactly how this is going to play out. Not even Donald Trump. Because he only controls a lot of the information.

He can't know what the other side is going to do in retaliation for what we do. So that's all the uncertainty. That's why the stock market is up and down is because no one really knows how this is going to play out. But let me just say that research shows that if you miss the best

10 days in the market over a 20-year period, your returns are cut in half. So if someone gets out of the market completely, they run the risk of missing some of the biggest gains because you just don't know. Because things could be resolved very positively for American businesses, and that means good things for corporate profits and good things for the stock market. There's no doubt that could happen. I mean, but China is the key to it, and China is very rough.

You know, when I was speaking to them, I made this point to China. I said, you know, in the United States, if we have a recession, people have 401ks. They can refinance their finance or mortgages. Many people have savings accounts to fall back on. You guys have nothing. OK, nothing. And your 1.5 billion people have to eat.

Your economy goes south, it crashes because the worldwide economy would be affected. All right, you're going to have a problem. So it's best for you, China, and the United States to make a trade deal. That was my presentation. There was no pushback because the Chinese people have no reserve.

They don't have any money. That's communism. No, you're right, Bill. There'll be political unrest. They're already afraid they quit publishing how many young people are unemployed because they don't want them to see that it's a nationwide problem. But the government will employ you there. They have enough resources. So if you're out of work, they'll give you a broom.

and you'll get enough to feed yourself. But if more factories close, and that's what's happening now in China, the factories that make the hats and the shirts and all of that stuff, they're closing. And because this month was the worst month for Chinese exporting into the United States in 25 years.

And that'll continue. The Americans hold some advantage. And I don't want to get into microeconomics, but the last question I have for you is that people are terrified, Alex, because this is beyond everybody's control. You know, human beings like to control their environment. They like to control their money, their security. They can't control it.

And if you've got IRAs, if you've got college funds, if you've got mutual funds, you can't control that. You're at the mercy of forces far beyond you. And I don't think that's a healthy thing.

Well, you're so right, Bill. With these tariffs, nobody knows. But think about it. Under ordinary circumstances, you don't know what GDP growth is going to be. You don't know what inflation is going to be. You don't know what corporate profits are going to be. You don't know whether the market's going to go up or down. Uncertainty is just part of the cost of admission when it comes to investing. No one can tell you.

what all those things will be. But we can look back at history and see that nothing has outperformed a diversified portfolio of U.S. stocks over time. And the best thing that most people can do with all these uncertainties they're facing is not to freak out and run to cash. Because if you do that, the risk that you run is that while you're in cash, the market does something like

It's done the last two months, which is it goes straight up. And then you're faced with the choice between, uh-oh, do I stay on the sidelines while I'm missing all the action, or do I get in and, having missed the rally, be in for the next sell-off? And that's the position you want to put yourself in. So I think what you've done is wise, Bill. You trim back your more speculative positions if you're uncertain about what lies ahead or particularly anxious about what lies ahead, but stick with your core portfolio because

even after 9-11 and after the pandemic and after this tariff episode is behind us, we know that over time, sales rise, profits rise, and stock prices rise. And so the average person should really be doing what Warren Buffett suggested you do, which is sit on your hands and just ride it out. All right, Alex, Chief Investment Strategist of the Oxford Club. We really appreciate your expertise. Thanks for taking the time today.

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All right, social disorder. So one of the big downsides of living in America is that our security, personal security, has declined dramatically in 50 years. After World War II, pretty sane, safe society. Wasn't a lot of craziness going on. Now it's out of control, particularly in the cities run by the left. Social disorder is rising to a point never before seen in the world.

not just in the United States. Some stats. Right now there are 19 million homes without fathers in the United States according to Census Bureau. Nearly one in four kids don't have a dad. Ethnic breakdown. Asian homes 15% without fathers. White 20, Hispanic 29, blacks a whopping 50% of African American homes do not have a father present.

Children, four times more likely to be poor without a dad. 71% of kids who abuse substance come from fatherless homes. 85% of youth in prison, fatherless homes. 90% of runaways, fatherless homes. 60% of youth suicides, fatherless homes. The USA has the highest rate of children living in single-parent households of any nation in the world.

Joining us now from Wake Forest, North Carolina is Pastor John Amanchuku. He is a father's advocate. He has written a book called Hoodwink, 10 Lies Americans Believe and the Truth that Will Set Them Free. And he is an activist as well as being a pastor.

So I asked for you, Pastor, because I know that you're deeply emotionally involved with this subject, and that's what I want. Why, why has fatherhood declined so dramatically in this country? Well, I would say, as it relates to the black community, that it has been social engineering. From the 1890s all the way up to the 1950s, the black marriage rate rivaled that of whites.

But in the 1960s, Lyndon B. Johnson came along with his Great Society Plan, a strategic plan as a means of removing the black man from the home and replacing him with a $300 check. Out goes dad, and here comes Big Daddy God government coming in replacing the father. Okay, let me stop you there. That is a widely believed theory.

But dad doesn't have to leave the home. Dad doesn't have to walk out the door, no matter what Lyndon Johnson did, correct? That is true, and I agree with that. That's the reason why I haven't left. However, during that time frame, in order to receive certain government assistance and programs, dad had to leave. And so for a family to-- Well, why couldn't dad get a job to support his family, as African-American fathers did?

from the Civil War times until post-World War II. When you create welfare states, you shift the ideology and the framework of a person's mind. These are Marxist tactics and strategies that were pushed on the black community by the Democrat Party. But the black community accepted them. Don't they have responsibility?

Of course they have personal responsibility and accountability to it. I haven't succumbed to it because I understand scriptures. The Bible says if a man doesn't work, neither shall he eat. But there are a lot of people during that timeframe after going through harsh treatment by the federal government and through state laws, through Jim Crow, who thought it was necessary to gain much of their achievement through policy. And they,

bowed to the altar of Lyndon B. Johnson and they thought that government was their best way out. Do I agree with that? Of course not. I'm a Christian conservative. Let's say that's true. But we have now an epidemic of fathers in 2025 that's just split. They don't care. There's no contact. They're gone. And is there peer pressure? And I don't want to make this just about African-Americans because it's obviously...

All ethnic groups are affected by it. - Sure, it's the pandemic. - Right. Is there peer pressure on these people? I would never associate with a father who abandoned their children, ever. Why isn't that mindset prevalent? - Well, as you consider this, you know, C.S. Lewis once talked about chestless men.

And I do believe that that's part of the problem as well, moving away from the social engineering of the Democrat Party. It's also you're dealing with a case of chestless men and men who have sacrificed their role at the feet of feminism. But again, that's a choice. That's a choice.

I agree, Bill. I've been married for 17 years. I have three children. I'm still leading my family. I believe that men are called to provide and protect and be the priest of their home. But this is typically what we're hearing today as a result of why men have abdicated their role and responsibility and left the home. Because they're fighting with the onslaught of feminism. They're also contending with... That's just an excuse. I mean, if you go to a prison, and I'm sure you've been,

And you talk to these violent criminals, almost every single one of them had either an abusive father beat the hell out of them or no father. Sure. That's what drives violent crime. No supervision. Mothers once once the boy becomes 13, 14, mothers can't control a boy physically, can't control him. OK, that's what drives the whole thing. But when these men go out.

and socialize with other people, there doesn't seem to be any stigma for leaving your kids. I don't get it.

- Yeah, I agree with you, Bill. However, I do think that it needs to be a stigma there. You know, I think the role and the responsibility of the father needs to be made clear and men must hold to it. You know, I'm leading a national campaign where I'm calling men out to the forefront to stand up and to fight for the nuclear family. I can only express to you what I am hearing from men in this culture. However, I do think that it's a part

of the fallen nature of man. Man, since the beginning, has abdicated his role. They've chosen to be, for the lack of better words, out to lunch when they should have been the priest of their home in place, standing and leading. But the only thing that's going to reverse that, government can't reverse that. I think you would agree with me on that. So government can't legislate good parents. They can't.

I mean, they can put you in jail if you beat your kid up or you neglect your child. They can take the child away, which is, you know, in a lot of cases worse than keeping a child there. So the government can't do it. It's got to be societal pressure on the fathers who are derelict. OK, and it's not there. There's a reason the United States leads the whole planet.

and fathers not being present. There's no stigma to it here. That's what has to happen. And because there's so much secularism, they don't believe in God. They don't believe in the Bible. They don't believe in anything. All right. I don't even know what the solution here is. If you know, please tell me.

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See your child learn perseverance and self-expression with everything they imagine and create. Visit lego.com slash preschool to learn more. Well, I think that the solution, first and foremost, is a Christian home and men bowing to God, first and foremost, and being laid by God. They won't do it, Pastor.

Because God doesn't want them to take narcotics. God doesn't want them to be out getting drunk. God doesn't want them to be out doing whatever they're doing. And if they're not going to do it, they're not. Even if Jesus came down tomorrow, I submit to you that a quarter of the population would go, I'm not going to do it. Last word.

Well, no, Bill, I hear what you're saying, and I'm wrestling with it myself daily as a counselor and lead man. However, there are some men out there who want that. They want the tough father figure. They want to have the coach-slash-athlete relationship. They want to be challenged. They want to be checked, and they want to be corrected.

But so there is a crop of men out there who still want to be a part of the nuclear family and leave their homes and not abdicate their role. Yeah. But we need more guys like you to go out there and spread that word. But man, it's tough because the entertainment industry, they don't give a hoot. You know that. All right. Nobody, you know, the politicians are afraid of it because if you say, hey, 50 percent of African-American homes don't have a dad, you're a racist. OK, so you just say that you're a racist.

And so that's the society that we live in. It's so difficult to get through. But that is the only solution to the social disorder. Having responsible parents, not just fathers, but the father has got to be the supervisor of the son. Right.

Yes, I agree with that, Bill. Fathers need to take responsibility. Biblical responsibility is placed upon the man. If the marriage and the family succeeds, it's because the man has done his part to show humility and to guide and to lead his family. Most important thing.

Most important thing. And we're not seeing that across the board, but I do believe that revival comes when that takes place. And so as we model this before men and we make masculinity and fatherhood and protecting the nuclear family something that's prominent, we'll see a revival there. This is why I fought against it. All right. I think the politicians have got to start spreading that message as well. Hey, happy Father's Day, Pastor. Thanks for taking the time to talk to us. We really appreciate it.

Likewise. You too. God bless you. Okay.