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cover of episode The Macro Analysis is Clear: Why We Are Reallocating (Away From Stocks) to Real Estate in 2025

The Macro Analysis is Clear: Why We Are Reallocating (Away From Stocks) to Real Estate in 2025

2025/1/17
logo of podcast BiggerPockets Real Estate Podcast

BiggerPockets Real Estate Podcast

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D
Dave
活跃的房地产投资者和分析师,专注于房地产市场预测和投资策略。
S
Scott
通过积极的储蓄和房地产投资,实现早期退休并成为财务独立运动的领袖。
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Dave: 我认为2025年将是房地产市场的一个转折点,交易量将回升,库存将增加,这将标志着房地产市场健康发展的开始。尽管如此,我并不预期会出现大幅度的价格上涨,但我认为长期租金增长将是房地产未来几年上涨潜力的核心因素之一,因为住房可负担性问题短期内难以解决。 我预计工资增长将继续超过通货膨胀,这将慢慢改善住房的可负担性,但我不认为我们会很快回到历史上的可负担性水平。这意味着对租赁单元的需求可能非常高,我相信未来五年租金增长的理由非常充分,尤其是在单户住宅租赁和住宅租赁方面。 我个人认为,2025年租金增长将较为温和,多户住宅租金增长可能接近持平,单户住宅租金增长可能接近通货膨胀水平。 至于抵押贷款利率,我认为它们将保持在较高水平,不会出现大幅下降。 总的来说,我认为2025年及以后,房地产仍然是实现财务独立的最佳资产类别,虽然不会像2015年那样容易赚钱,但仍存在巨大上涨潜力。 Scott Trench: 我同意Dave的结论,即房地产是最佳资产类别,但我对他的部分分析有不同意见。 我认为2024年美国人的生活水平实际上有所提高,这与普遍的悲观预期相反。与股市和比特币价格上涨相比,房地产价格在过去三年里相对稳定,这使得房地产成为一个更有吸引力的投资选择。 考虑到其他资产类别价格上涨,房地产是目前价格相对较低的资产类别。除非预期所有资产类别都将大幅下跌,否则房地产是目前相对低估的资产类别。我预计2025年美国人的生活水平将继续提高,这将增加对房地产的需求。 至于租金增长,我认为2025年租金增长将较为温和,多户住宅租金增长可能接近持平,单户住宅租金增长可能接近通胀水平。这主要是因为大量新建多户住宅供应,将继续抑制租金增长。 关于抵押贷款利率,我认为它们将保持高位,不会出现大幅下降。 至于投资策略,由于股市估值过高,我计划出售部分股票,并将资金投资于多户住宅房地产。我不会选择持有大量现金观望,因为我更注重财务自由和安心感,而房地产投资更能满足我的需求。 此外,我认为2025年及以后,娱乐、旅游、教育、金融服务、奢侈品等行业将会迎来发展机遇。

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Shownotes Transcript

Is it a good time to invest in real estate)? Yes, and we have proof that real estate may be underpriced, even as we hover around the most expensive average home prices in history. How can real estate be undervalued when prices are at historic highs? Dave is sitting down with Scott Trench, CEO of BiggerPockets, who has condensed ten hours' worth of research into one episode to prove to you that, without a doubt, real estate will be winning over the next few years. Plus, he’s about to make a BIG financial bet on it.

We’ve been talking a lot about entering** the “upside” era recently—the new cycle of real estate investing—and wanted Scott’s take on it, too. He has invested in real estate for over a decade, reached financial independence) through rental properties, and has been openly critical about multiple sectors of the real estate industry** over the past few years. 

Today, Scott makes a** compelling case for real estate as a better investment than stocks, crypto, or gold**. Some specific real estate niches could see prices drop even more, making 2025 (and 2026) phenomenal opportunities to buy. Make your choice: tune into this episode and build wealth while others sit on the sidelines or wish you had done so in a few years. 

In This Episode We Cover:

Why residential real estate may actually be **undervalued in 2025 **

One sector of real estate with** enormous buying opportunities** nobody is noticing 

**Scott’s MASSIVE real estate bet **and why he’s selling much of his stock portfolio

Where interest rates) will be in 2025 and whether they could rise even more 

Rental housing demand and the almost irrefutable case that rent prices) will rise 

Why Scott believes Bitcoin) will be going to $0 in the long term 

And **So **Much More!

Links from the Show

Join BiggerPockets for FREE)

Let Us Know What You Thought of the Show!)

Ask Your Question on the BiggerPockets Forums)

BiggerPockets YouTube)

BiggerPockets Money Podcast)

Rent Growth)

Treasury Yields)

Real Median Household Income)

Median Sales Price of Houses)

S&P 500 Ten-Year Returns vs. S&P 500 P/E)

Join the Future of Real Estate Investing with Fundrise)

Grab Scott’s Book, “Set for Life”)

Find an Investor-Friendly Agent in Your Area)

The Rational Investor’s Case Against Bitcoin)

Connect with Scott)

Connect with Dave)

Check out more resources from this show on BiggerPockets.com) and https://www.biggerpockets.com/blog/real-estate-1071)

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