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cover of episode Daybreak Weekend: Fed Meeting, BOE Decision, BOJ Policy

Daybreak Weekend: Fed Meeting, BOE Decision, BOJ Policy

2025/6/13
logo of podcast Bloomberg Daybreak: Europe Edition

Bloomberg Daybreak: Europe Edition
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Caroline Hepker
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Dan Hanson
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Doug Krisner
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Drew Redding
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Michael McKee
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Paul Jackson
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Phil Aldrich
Topics
Michael McKee：我预计美联储在短期内不会改变利率，可能要到九月才能对经济有足够了解，以决定是否需要采取进一步行动。目前通胀基本受控，但关税的影响是未知的，需要观察六月和七月的通胀数据。没人知道特朗普会做什么，这使得很难预测关税的影响。关税对价格有直接影响，这可能会影响CPI和PPI的其他类别。美联储认为目前不需要采取行动，因为通胀受控，经济也在维持，但会关注失业救济金和经济增长。关税的担忧影响了第一季度的GDP读数，第三次读数预计变化不大。第二季度的GDP预计会有较大变化，因为进口减少会人为地增加GDP。美联储可能会平均这两个季度的数据，但这并不能清晰地反映实际情况。消费者仍然感到不安，但似乎并没有减少所有购买。汽油价格下降给消费者带来了一些额外支出，但食品价格上涨。由于人们减少旅行，机票和酒店价格下降，这表明存在一些不安情绪。特朗普对美联储主席的人选有自己的想法，包括Scott Besson、Kevin Warsh和Kevin Hassett。特朗普似乎想要一个会降息的人，但即使他喜欢Kevin Warsh，后者在通胀问题上一直持鹰派立场。特朗普可以填补一个州长职位和一个美联储主席职位，但他无法完全控制货币政策。即使特朗普任命了一个希望降息的人，如果其他美联储成员认为通胀仍然是一个威胁，他们也不会同意。

Deep Dive

Chapters
This chapter analyzes the Federal Reserve's upcoming decision on interest rates, considering factors such as inflation, economic growth, and the potential impact of tariffs. Experts discuss the likelihood of a rate change and the implications for the future of the Fed's leadership.
  • No change in rates expected in the short term.
  • Inflation is currently under control, but tariffs remain a wildcard.
  • Jerome Powell's term as Fed chair ends in May 2025, leading to speculation about his successor.

Shownotes Transcript

Bloomberg Daybreak Weekend with Tom Busby takes a look at some of the stories we'll be tracking in the coming week.

  • In the US – a look ahead to next week’s Fed decision.
  • In the UK – a look ahead to next week’s Bank of England decision.
  • In Asia – a look ahead to next week's Bank of Japan decision.

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