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cover of episode Daybreak Weekend: Nike Preview, TheCityUK, China Eco Survey

Daybreak Weekend: Nike Preview, TheCityUK, China Eco Survey

2025/6/21
logo of podcast Bloomberg Daybreak: Europe Edition

Bloomberg Daybreak: Europe Edition
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Eric Zhu
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Julian Harris
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Karishma Vaswani
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Leo Kehnscherper
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Michael McKee
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Poonam Goyal
Topics
Michael McKee： 预计五月份PCE物价指数和核心PCE物价指数会略有上升，但实际情况可能并非如此，因为CPI和PPI数据较为温和。消费者仍在坚持，但并不特别热情，而且至少目前来看，通货膨胀得到了控制。美联储目前的状态是他们想要的，他们现在不需要降息或加息，所以他们乐于维持现状。 美联储没有足够的信息来做决定，他们目前的预测可能发生，但并非一定会发生。共和党人可能会因为鲍威尔没有降息而为难他，鲍威尔会尽可能回避财政政策问题。鲍威尔表示，可能要到9月份才能对经济走向有真正的了解。克里斯认为关税只会导致价格一次性上涨，不会持续造成通货膨胀问题。克里斯认为7月份降息是有可能的，但他不认为委员会的其他成员会同意，因为他们掌握的数据还不够。 Michael McKee： 我预计PCE物价指数将小幅上涨，但温和的CPI和PPI数据意味着实际情况可能并非如此。消费者支出稳定，但并不乐观，通胀目前受到控制。美联储对当前状况感到满意，没有立即降息或加息的必要。美联储的预测缺乏确定性，依赖于未来数据。鲍威尔可能会在国会面临共和党关于降息的质询，并将避免评论财政政策。真正的经济走向可能要到九月才能明确。沃勒预计关税只会导致一次性价格上涨，不会引发持续通胀，并认为七月降息是可能的，但不太可能得到委员会的支持。

Deep Dive

Chapters
This chapter analyzes the upcoming release of the Personal Consumer Expenditure Price Index (PCE) and Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's testimony to Congress. Experts discuss inflation expectations, potential rate cuts, and the impact of tariffs on the economy.
  • PCE price index expected to rise slightly
  • Fed's summary of economic projections suggests no immediate need for rate changes
  • Powell anticipates two rate decreases this year, but there is uncertainty among Fed members
  • Powell's testimony will address monetary policy, with potential political pressure regarding rate cuts

Shownotes Transcript

Bloomberg Daybreak Weekend with Tom Busby takes a look at some of the stories we'll be tracking in the coming week.

  • In the US – a look ahead to U.S GDP and personal spending data and Nike earnings.
  • In the UK – a look ahead to TheCityUK's annual conference.
  • In Asia – a look ahead to Bloomberg’s China economic survey.-----------------------------------------------------------------Guests:-Michael McKee, Bloomberg International Economics and Policy Correspondent, to preview next week's U.S GDP/personal spending data.- Poonam Goyal, Senior U.S. E-Commerce and Retail Analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence, to preview Nike earnings.           -Leo Kehnscherper, Bloomberg European Asset Management Reporter, looks ahead to TheCityUK's annual conference. -Julian Harris, UK Economics Editor, looks ahead to TheCityUK's annual conference. - Eric Zhu, China Economist for Bloomberg Economics, discusses Bloomberg’s China Economic Survey. -Karishma Vaswani, Bloomberg Opinion Columnist in Singapore, discusses her column: “US Rethink on Australia Subs Is China’s Win.”

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