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Daybreak Weekend: Nvidia Preview, Poland Election, BOK Decision
2025/5/23
Bloomberg Daybreak: Europe Edition
E
Ewa Krakowska
H
Hyosung Kwon
J
Joe Little
K
Kunjan Subani
S
Stuart Paul
W
Wojtek Moskwa
Stuart Paul: 我认为美国政府对第一季度GDP数据的乐观修正预期可能过于乐观，最好的情况是达到0%的增长。关注GDP核算细节可能会忽略更重要的实质：进口增长超过国内生产和使用。贸易紧张和不确定性正在对国内经济活动产生压力。我预计第一季度GDP数据仍然疲软，未来经济前景因PMI疲软和政策不确定性而面临压力。目前的贸易壁垒暂时降低带来了一定的缓解，但这只是暂时的，会影响固定投资和招聘计划。尽管CPI略有上升，但核心PCE可能仅增长0.1%，需要深入分析具体构成。核心PCE中，商品价格因关税而上涨，但服务价格（不包括住房）有所下降。服务价格下跌的部分原因是金融服务和投资组合管理服务的成本下降，这与股市因贸易壁垒上升而下跌有关。近期股市反弹将导致服务价格在未来几个月内回升，同时企业也将开始转嫁更高的关税和投入成本。即使通胀指标总体上表现疲软，但细节预示着经济形势将进一步恶化，物价将在未来几个月上涨。
Deep Dive
This chapter analyzes the second read on the US GDP for Q1 and the PCE for April. Economist Stuart Paul discusses the potential upward revision of GDP data, the impact of trade tensions and tariffs, and the implications for Fed policy. The analysis includes insights into inflation and its potential future trajectory.
- Q1 GDP growth declined at an annualized pace of 0.3%
- Upward revision of GDP data is anticipated, but likely to be around 0%
- Trade tensions and higher trade barriers are weighing on domestic activity
- April's PCE is expected to show 0.1% growth in prices
- Core goods prices are rising due to tariff pass-through, while services prices retreated
Shownotes Transcript