Israel Strikes Iran’s Nuclear Sites, Key Military Chief Killed, Oil & Gold Surge
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This is the Bloomberg Daybreak Europe podcast, available every morning on Apple, Spotify or wherever you listen. It's Friday the 13th of June here in London. I'm Caroline Hepker. And I'm Stephen Carroll. Coming up today, Israel attacks Iran's nuclear and ballistic missile programmes while killing key figures in the regime in a major escalation of hostilities. Tehran vows to deliver a harsh blow against Israel and the US as President Trump says America was aware of the strikes but not involved.

And crude oil prices jumped by double digits in the biggest gains in more than three years. Stocks drop and gold rises as investors rush to safe haven assets. Let's start with a roundup of our top stories. Israel has launched waves of airstrikes against Iran's nuclear programme and ballistic missile sites. The attacks are a significant escalation in the conflict between the two countries with consequences for the wider Middle East.

The operation also targeted Iran's nuclear scientists and generals, killing a number of high-ranking military officials in the country. Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu says the strikes will continue for as many days as it takes to remove this threat. Israel will never allow those who call for our annihilation to develop the means to achieve that goal. Tonight, Israel backs those words with action. We struck at the heart of Iran's nuclear enrichment program.

We struck at the heart of Iran's nuclear weaponization program. We targeted Iran's main enrichment facility in Natanz. We targeted Iran's leading nuclear scientists working on the Iranian bomb. We also struck at the heart of Iran's ballistic missile program.

Israel's Netanyahu speaking there as the country's defence minister, Israel Katz, says he's declaring a state of emergency after what he described as a pre-emptive strike against Iran. The Israeli military says Iran has launched over 100 drones towards Israel and that their air defence systems are responding.

Explosions were heard across Tehran and in the city of Natanz, home to one of its nuclear sites, according to videos and local media. Iranian state television reported that the head of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, Hussein Salami, was killed, as well as the chief of staff of the country's armed forces. Iran TV is also reporting that 50 people have been injured in the strikes.

In a televised address, Iran's armed forces spokesperson said that Israel and the United States will receive a, quote, harsh blow in response. U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio says that the United States was not involved and warned that Iran should not target U.S. interests or personnel.

Tehran has repeatedly insisted that its atomic activities are for peaceful civilian purposes only, but it has significantly expanded uranium enrichment since 2019 and in response to President Trump's withdrawal a year before from a 2015 nuclear deal signed under Barack Obama's administration.

Professor Matthew Bunn, American nuclear and energy policy analyst at Harvard, believes that the attack will make the potential for retaliation more of a reality.

I think this will make Iran even more determined that it needs to move directly toward producing nuclear weapons. My guess is that it will try to rebuild its program at secret locations. So that was Professor Matthew Bond speaking there.

as Nicole Gradjewski, a fellow in the nuclear policy programme at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, who specialises in the region, has posted this on social media. If you were to ask the worst-case scenario, this would be close to it. Netanyahu's government ordered the strikes in apparent defiance of the US president. Fox News says Donald Trump was made aware of the strikes before Israel launched them, citing a phone interview between the president and one of their anchors.

That comes after Donald Trump had said earlier yesterday he didn't want Israel to attack, adding that his administration remained committed to a diplomatic resolution to the Iran nuclear issue. Former NATO Supreme Allied Commander in Europe, Wesley Clark, says Israel has forced America's hand. President Trump does not want a war, he said that, but also he does not want an Iran to have nuclear weapons. So I think...

Prime Minister Netanyahu has taken the decision away from President Trump at this point.

The strikes by Israel on Iran come after the US had earlier ordered some staff to leave its embassy in Baghdad and authorised families of military service members to move out of the Middle East. Officials at the time had said the decision was due to heightened security risks after Iran threatened to strike American bases if it were attacked over its nuclear programme.

Now to the market reaction. Oil prices have surged by as much as 13% as the news of the strikes raises fears of a wider war in the Middle East. Brent topped $78 a barrel in the biggest intraday gain since March 2022. Vanda Insights founder Vandana Hari says that markets are expecting retaliation. The big question for oil would be how and when Iran retaliates.

On the second part, I would imagine they would want to keep an element of surprise, so probably not in the next few hours or even days. So this could drag on potentially, which means the risk premium that has crept into crude will also likely stay intact.

Harry adds that understanding the US's role in what comes next, it will be crucial. Earlier this week, JP Morgan warned that prices could reach $130 a barrel in a worst case scenario in the Middle East. In other market reaction, equities are selling off in Asia and futures for Europe and the United States are sharply lower. Eurostoxx 50 futures down 1.8% this morning on Wall Street. S&P E-minis down 1.6%.

We've seen a move to Haven Assets as well. The dollar is strengthened by three-tenths of 1% on the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index, reversing some of its recent weakness. The euro is currently trading four-tenths weaker at 1.1535 against the dollar. Gold prices have also risen close to record highs, currently trading at $3,428 an ounce, up 1.25%.

Now, let's get to some other news this morning. One of the two black boxes from the Air India plane crash in Ahmedabad has now been recovered. According to the Hindustan Times, the recording device has been secured. The second is yet to be found. 241 passengers on board the Boeing 787 Dreamliner, which was bound for London, died in the accident.

A 40-year-old UK citizen is the sole survivor. Laura Savino is a former United Airlines captain. She says the industry will be working to understand what went wrong. We know that they were highly trained. Was there something mechanical that they were able to do?

Was there some sort of a pilot oversight? Pilots are very keen on understanding when a crash happens to ensure that they themselves don't repeat those mistakes. Former airline captain Laura Savino speaking there. Boeing CEO Kelly Ortberg, as well as the head of commercial aircraft, have both cancelled their plans to attend the Paris Air Show, the industry's most important annual gathering following the incident.

And just one more word on market reaction as the shekel has just begun trading in Israel, sliding 2.7% against the US dollar following that attack.

Well, those are our top stories this morning. Today, we have full coverage of Israel's attack on Iran for you today and the response that we're getting. We'll have reporting from the Middle East. We'll have global reaction and the turmoil that it sparked on markets. And if you want to check out Bloomberg's latest coverage of this, we have a live blog running. It's on the front page of Bloomberg.com. Also, of course,

It's looking at all aspects of this, how countries around the world are reacting, how businesses, we talked about some of the flight disruption across the Middle East region as well, and some of our latest analysis too. Yeah, absolutely. In terms of Bloomberg Economics, their analysis of this situation, the risks are high that this will escalate into a broader regional conflict. That is the deeper issue.

between these two long-standing adversaries, Israel and Iran. I think it's very interesting to note, however, that...

We don't yet fully understand the US's position, and this is what we're trying to understand more fully. The reaction, though, from within President Trump's own party in Congress does seem to be universally supportive, though, of Israel. And as we say on that Bloomberg blog, we've been talking about the House Speaker Mike Johnson. He has posted on Twitter,

social media that Israel is right, in quotes, and has a right to defend itself. So that's reaction that we're getting from the United States in this early hours period here in London. Yeah, indeed, and hours after those strikes as well, Donald Trump was speaking to Fox News and said that he was aware of Israel's action before it happened.

and that he hoped that Iran would continue negotiating as well. Plenty more, of course, on all aspects of the story, including reaction and what this means for global markets, for the economy, on our live blog that's running. But let's get to the details of what has happened overnight. A major escalation in the region with Israel launching those airstrikes against Iran's nuclear project.

and ballistic missile sites. Let's go live to Israel and Ethan Bronner, our Israel bureau chief, is with us for more. Ethan, good morning. What, first of all, do we know about these attacks and the damage that was done by them? Well, the

They're not handing out too many details. They did say that they sent 200 aircraft that were involved in these strikes. They have named three key people that they have killed, the chief of staff of the military, the head of the Revolutionary Guard, and the head of, I think it was called the Emergency Command in Iran.

In terms of the actual damage, they have not handed out too much information. But there's no question that Natanz has been attacked, one of the enrichment sites and so forth, where there's a bunch of sites across. There have been five waves of flights against Iran, and they're saying it could last days. I was told by someone it could be up to two weeks. Iran has promised retaliation. What might that be?

Well, in theory, they've announced that they've already sent around 100 drones. They take some hours to get here. But Iran does have some hundreds, perhaps a couple of thousands of ballistic missiles. These are very, very powerful and large weapons. And they've sent several hundred at Israel in the last year when they had their exchanges in April and October. So we have to assume that that's what's coming our way in coming hours or days.

Ethan, what do we understand about why Israel chose to take this action now? Well, we have...

what we knew before and what the prime minister and military officials have said this morning. So what we knew before, which is quite significant, is that Israel has long accused Iran of seeking to destroy it and of building nuclear weapons to that aim, to that end. And what has changed in the last months is that proxy militias that Iran runs in the region, Hezbollah, Hamas,

and so forth have been severely damaged by Israel. And so Israel felt that this was, and Iran also, the attacks that Israel carried out on Iran, its air defense and missile making capacity had been severely damaged. So before these could be heavily rebuilt, Israel felt this was an important moment to take advantage and to act. But two other things. One is that

They say, this is what they've been announcing this morning, that they have been watching Iran secretly and rapidly work to weaponize their enriched uranium. That is that they're actively working toward a nuclear weapon, according to Israel, in recent weeks in a way that they've not announced. And of course, this president, Trump, while officially and publicly saying

opposing this kind of activity, I think there has been a bit of a wink and a nod by him. And we'll see, but that's my impression. And so all those factors together are what drove Israel to do it. Look, there are doubtless political issues as well. This particular coalition, this particular prime minister,

And, of course, in the wake of October 7th, Israel is in a much more aggressive military pose than it has ever been before. But then it does mean that Iran, Israel and the U.S. are locked potentially in an escalating crisis. What does the wider region think about this? We've had initial reactions from countries like Oman. What does it mean for the region?

Well, it obviously endangers the region, as you suggest, and many in the region are pretty unhappy about it. That's all clear. You know, from I think from the American perspective, I think it's unlikely that the Americans would not help defend Israel. I think that they will help defend Israel. In October and last April, when these missiles came back at Israel from Iran, a bunch of

other countries helped Israel, both the UK and France, and also quietly some Arab countries. I doubt that the Arab countries are going to do much to help Israel this time. I don't know about the UK and France, which have been angry at Israel over its war in Gaza. But I do think the US will help out.

I mean, I think the other thing to remember is that Israel has a pretty exceptional air defense system itself. It's got an excellent bomb shelter system. And so I'm sure some damage will happen here and doubtless some deaths. But I doubt it'll be extensive. But we'll see.

Okay, Ethan Bronner, our Israel Bureau Chief for now. Thank you. Now, let's turn to our EMEA News Director, Roslyn Matheson, who joins us now for more detailed analysis. President Trump was made aware of Israel's strikes on Iran before they were launched. But this amidst, of course, the sixth round of nuclear talks that are

between the U.S. and Iran on Sunday. Roz, how much did the U.S. know and back the Israeli attack in terms of our analysis? Well, they're saying that they were not involved in these strikes. They said they were aware of them beforehand. That includes the Secretary of State Marco Rubio's comments on that. But, of course, you saw the U.S. president only yesterday saying that he really didn't want Israel to be striking again.

in this fashion in the nuclear sites, saying that he was concerned about what that would mean for escalation in the region. And even though he himself has threatened Iran, said the US could come at Iran directly, he first wants to give these talks a chance and he really would prefer a deal with Iran on its nuclear intentions and its nuclear enrichment. And those talks that were scheduled for Oman on Sunday must now be quite up in the air

as a result. It's the language from the U S was quite cautious overnight. They're not exactly endorsing the Israeli action. They're not overtly criticizing Israel publicly for it, but you can imagine there's been quite a sense of just quite potentially behind the scenes and, and what it tells you about the relationship between Benjamin Netanyahu and Donald Trump, that Netanyahu felt he could go ahead, um,

in the face of what was quite clearly US concern about such a move. Does that mean that Donald Trump no longer has leverage over Netanyahu? Arguably other leaders lost leverage as well against him. Or was there some kind of tacit understanding behind the scenes on this? But certainly it seems that they went ahead in the face of the US attack.

advising them not to. We're starting to get reaction to the events that have unfolded in the past few hours, including from around the region as well. What have we heard in terms of Middle East reaction? Well, obviously, there's been expressions of concern. Oman, which has been the place that's been hosting these talks, and obviously keen to see them continue, but also Saudi Arabia, which is no particular friend of Iran, you'd have to say, but also

no doubt very concerned again about the prospect of escalation in the region. I mean we've had years of recent conflict including directly between Israel and Iran that seem to have settled down and all the hope had been that there'd be an opportunity to move towards a more regional stability that really throws this in the air with the strikes that have happened

And so Saudi Arabia, very concerned about that country's closing airspace in the region. So you get that kind of sense of disruption for a start.

to activity there, but also you get the worry that Iran will retaliate at some point. They've sent some drones towards Israel this morning, but you wouldn't say that 100 drones is really their prime retaliation. We have got a statement out from the Prime Minister here in the UK on this issue. The reports of these strikes are concerning.

And we urge all parties to step back and reduce tensions urgently. Escalation serves no one in the region, according to Prime Minister Keir Starmer. Stability in the Middle East must be the priority and we are engaging partners to de-escalate. Now is the time for restraint, calm and a return to diplomacy. European countries have largely been sidelined in the nuclear negotiations between the US and Iran. How relevant do we really think...

the Europeans are going to be in this? What do you think is going to be their response and their stance whilst countries in Europe have been increasingly at odds with Israel over its actions in Gaza? Well, that's right. So there's already those tensions over Gaza and countries in Europe plus the UK have grown increasingly vocal about the humanitarian situation and directly critical in a way of Israel. So that relationship is already...

pretty fraught. But you'd have to say that that criticism has not particularly deterred Netanyahu in Gaza. So criticism of this action is unlikely to deter him when it comes to Iran as well. I mean, it seems again, there wasn't a lot of wholehearted endorsement

for this action. You didn't see reports that there was a lot of collaboration with militaries from other countries to get this done. And so there is a sense of stepping back from it and showing displeasure simply by not being involved. But again, the European and UK criticism of Israel has been picking up

for months with no discernible impact. Indeed, it seems like they're still continuing to buy weapons from Israel. At least some countries are. And in beefing up their own defence in Europe, it's very clear that they will probably have to rely on some equipment

Yeah.

No, indeed. Ros, thank you so much for being with us this morning. That is Bloomberg's EMEA News Director Roslyn Matheson. One other piece of breaking news this morning from the IAEA, which is the UN's atomic oversight agency. Effectively, they say that there is no increase in radiation at Iran's Natanz site. This is according to AFP news agency. So monitoring, of course, those nuclear sites and any possible fallout from the attack after that. So that's the latest news there.

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where money means more. Well, the story is reverberating across markets. Oil prices spiking as much as 13% at one stage. Equity futures in Europe and on Wall Street are slumping. Our Market's Live strategist, Mary Nicola, joins us now for more on

that. Mary, let's start with the oil price reaction. In context, how big are the moves that we're seeing? Yeah, if we look at previous history and what we've seen days when we get these risk-off reactions, it's quite big. And so, for example, we've seen an 8% increase in Brett Crude. And of course, the implications are large because, of course, we're seeing a sigh of relief

about inflation and the implications of inflation. And now this is coming back to haunt us. So the fact that we're seeing oil prices spike again, of course, you're going to see some concerns about inflation, especially in places like India. Yeah, indeed. In terms of the rest of the market reaction, then the move to safe haven assets, the dollar, gold nearing a new record high. Investors, how concerned are they if you look across those markets?

Yeah, it's been very clear since the news first hit the wires that investors are flocking to safety. So when we first heard the news, your typical reaction of gold, the Swiss franc and the Japanese yen were doing very well. The U.S. dollar wasn't catching very much a strong bid, but it was against a lot of the EM currencies.

So there is clearly a risk-off reaction. Clearly, the risk-off reaction is not only in currency markets, but obviously in equities as well. And so in general, but what we've seen in general is the fact that gold has been a clear indication of flight to safety.

Yeah, I mean, looking ahead to what we should be expecting for the trading day ahead, equity futures sharply lower in Europe and on Wall Street as well. And, you know, the euro under pressure because of the strength that we see returning to the dollar as well, a similar move in the pound too.

Yeah, and it's likely to stay a risk-off move. If not, it might even be exacerbated, especially if we're looking, if they're discussing a retaliation. And if that retaliation happens during the trading hours of London or New York, that just only exacerbates the pressure. The fact is that geopolitical uncertainty is very strong and it lingers.

And as a result, it's a matter of, in many of these cases, it's a matter of traders would rather sell first and then ask questions later. Okay. Mary, thank you so much for being with us this morning on Markets Live. So, with the latest on the markets, which, of course, we will keep across for you throughout the morning and as soon as London starts trading, of course, that will be very important to understand what the market reaction is once London is awake.

Well, let's bring you more analysis now on the story that we're following throughout the programme this morning, this attack by Israel on Iran's nuclear and ballistic missile programmes. We've been discussing this with Javed Ali. He was former senior director for counter-terrorism at the US National Security Council during the first Trump administration. He's now an associate professor of practice at the University of Michigan. We started by asking him why this strike represents a significant escalation in the conflict.

What makes this qualitatively and quantitatively different is just the scope and severity of it. It has apparently hit one of the key sites in Iran's nuclear enterprise, Natanz facility, one of the key uranium enrichment sites. But what I find very interesting on top of that, which is certainly an escalation between Israel and Iran, is the fact that several very senior Iranian officials

Military officials and or nuclear scientists have been part of that nuclear program within the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps have been apparently killed or injured. And so Israel has really hit Iran hard, both in terms of the physical infrastructure of Iran's nuclear program, but also the human capital of it and done it in one fell swoop. On the question of those individuals that were targeted, how damaging a blow is that to Iranians?

Iran's military? Well, Iran has a large military and these aren't the first very senior Iranian military officials or even nuclear scientists who've been killed over the last 20 plus years. And going back to something your listeners might remember in January 2020, when the United States was

struck and killed in a targeted operation. Qasem Soleimani, who was not the head of the IRGC, the Revolutionary Guard Corps, but

an element within it, the Revolutionary Guard Corps Quds Force, which is Iran's unconventional warfare wing and a very powerful organization. And Soleimani was arguably the second most powerful man in Iran. And so if the United States could kill Soleimani in Iraq,

And Iran withstood that and his replacement is a guy named Ismail Ghani. And the IRGC didn't, for the most part, or the Quds Force didn't really miss a beat in the aftermath of Soleimani's death. I think Iran will have to wait and see how much pressure Israel continues to apply. But there are dozens of other generals probably that could...

move up the ranks to fill the leadership positions. Iran has said that Israel carried out this attack in coordination with the United States. President Trump has said that the U.S. remained committed to a diplomatic solution. There is a significant disconnect here. What do you make of this Iranian accusation?

The Iranian defense minister yesterday said that even if the U.S. did not overtly support an Israeli attack against Iranian nuclear sites or military officials, what we've seen play out, that he said that Iran would still hold the U.S. accountable and would potentially attack U.S. military facilities in the region, of which there are several, with

within reach of Iran's missiles and other capabilities. Now, they haven't followed through on that, and maybe this is just rhetoric. And as far as we know, the U.S. was not directly involved, at least in firing the weapons or...

sort of the actual manifestation of the attack. Now, there could have been other types of support behind the scenes, but as far as what is being reported publicly, there's no overt U.S. hand to this, but it doesn't mean that Iran still won't try to hold the U.S. responsible. But if they do, I think then that would only further put

Iran in a very difficult spot because the U.S. could hit Iran exponentially harder than Israel has already hit it.

What do you expect the response to be from Iran? Is the country capable of fighting back? And what does it mean, very importantly, for the wider region? Yeah, and this is something I've given a lot of thought to, certainly over the past few hours. And as someone who has studied and observed Iran, certainly in my government career and even before that, I would have to assess they have a significant amount of capability that they have not either used or lost yet.

even up until today. And I expect the Iranians to retaliate because they have been hit hard

by Israel harder than Israel's ever hit them, even going back to last year. And again, the scope and scale of what's unfolded. So will it be, will it look like the Iranian response in April where they fired hundreds of, or up to 300 crews, ballistic and missiles and then drones against different targets in Israel? I suspect that's

potentially an option, and they probably have thousands and thousands of those types of weapons that they haven't even used or lost. They probably have a plan to consider attacking maritime shipping in the Persian Gulf, either with those same type of weapon systems or other type of attack.

It's been well documented that Iran has offensive cyber capabilities that they used against different targets throughout the world. So will Iran unleash those? Iran has the axis of resistance with Hamas, Hezbollah, the Houthis. But as we know, they have been significantly degraded over the past year and a half by Israel to an extent.

the United States, so I'm not sure the Axis of Resistance partners are going to be able to do much for Iran. But then Iran also has this unconventional warfare wing that I talked about, the Quds Force, and they have an intelligence service, the Ministry of Intelligence and Security, and they can operate globally, may not be able to do what Israel did as significantly

But they could probably try to engage in targeted assassinations or kidnap plots or other things. And these all sound pretty terrible to contemplate, but I think this is the reality of what Iran must have thought through in terms of options if...

Israel launched the kind of campaign that it actually has. So I think this has the potential to get very nasty with both sides. And I do think Iran is going to have to at least try to hit back in a way that it hasn't yet because they have been hit so hard by Israel.

This is Bloomberg Daybreak Europe, your morning brief on the stories making news from London to Wall Street and beyond. Look for us on your podcast feed every morning on Apple, Spotify and anywhere else you get your podcasts. You can also listen live each morning on London DAB Radio, the Bloomberg Business App and Bloomberg.com. Our flagship New York station is also available on your Amazon Alexa devices. Just say Alexa, play Bloomberg 1130.

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