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cover of episode US: Strikes Didn’t Destroy Iran’s Nuclear Program, EU Tariff Threat, UK's China Imports Jump

US: Strikes Didn’t Destroy Iran’s Nuclear Program, EU Tariff Threat, UK's China Imports Jump

2025/6/25
logo of podcast Bloomberg Daybreak: Europe Edition

Bloomberg Daybreak: Europe Edition

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Andrew Cuomo
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Caroline Hepker
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Caroline Leavitt
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Denise Pellegrini
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Donald Trump
批评CHIPS Act,倡导使用关税而非补贴来促进美国国内芯片制造。
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Donald Trump's team
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James Walcock
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Jerome Powell
现任美联储主席,曾任投资银行家和律师,领导美联储应对COVID-19疫情和控制通胀。
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Keir Starmer
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Mark Rutter
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Roslyn Matheson
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Stephen Carroll
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Tiwa Adebayo
Topics
Caroline Hepker和Stephen Carroll: 节目讨论了美国空袭对伊朗核计划的影响有限,以及欧盟对美国进口商品征收关税的威胁。同时,也关注了办公室工作人员对ChatGPT的兴趣日益增长,这对微软构成了挑战。 Donald Trump's team: 我们否认关于空袭效果有限的报告,我们认为空袭完全摧毁了目标。 Caroline Leavitt: 作为白宫新闻秘书,我认为情报部门关于空袭效果有限的评估是完全错误的,并且是对特朗普总统的贬低。 Roslyn Matheson: 作为彭博EMEA新闻主管,我了解到五角大楼的国防情报局发现,美国的轰炸不太可能摧毁伊朗地下核设施的核心部件。同时,国际原子能机构也表示,目前尚不清楚情况如何,但他们怀疑这些袭击是否会严重阻碍伊朗的核野心。尽管白宫方面坚持认为设施已被完全摧毁,但地面监测的缺乏使得核实情况变得困难。目前停火协议虽然存在,但中东局势依然脆弱,外交途径尚不明朗。

Deep Dive

Chapters
Early US intelligence suggests limited impact from airstrikes on Iran's nuclear facilities, contradicting Trump's claims. The UN calls for renewed inspections, and the situation is further complicated by Trump's ambiguous stance on NATO's Article 5.
  • US airstrikes on Iran had limited impact on its nuclear program.
  • Intelligence reports contradict Trump's claims of total obliteration.
  • UN calls for renewed inspections of Iranian nuclear sites.
  • Trump's ambiguous stance on NATO's Article 5 raises concerns.

Shownotes Transcript

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This is the Bloomberg Daybreak Europe podcast, available every morning on Apple, Spotify or wherever you listen. It's Wednesday the 25th of June in London. I'm Caroline Hepker. And I'm Stephen Carroll. Coming up today, an early US intelligence report shows American airstrikes have only had a limited impact on Iran's nuclear programme. The EU warns it will impose tariffs on American imports if the White House keeps a baseline levy on its goods. Plus, struggling to work it out, chat GPTs appeal to

Office workers presents a growing problem for its biggest backer, Microsoft. Let's start with a roundup of our top stories. America's unprecedented airstrikes on Iran's nuclear facilities had only a limited impact, according to early US intelligence findings. A report by the Pentagon's Defense Intelligence Agency says the bombing likely didn't cripple the core components of Iran's program, including its centrifuges.

According to people familiar with the assessments, the U.S. strikes are likely to have set Tehran's plans back by several months to as much as a year. U.S. President Donald Trump's team dismissed the reports, which cast doubt on his claim that the strikes totally obliterated their targets. White House Press Secretary Caroline Leavitt posted on X that the intelligence finding of limited impact was flat-out wrong and, quote, a clear attempt to demean President Trump.

Despite the White House's pushback comments, the assessment will likely only intensify calls from the United Nations nuclear watchdog for renewed inspections of the targeted sites. This as a ceasefire Trump brokered to end the 12-day conflict between Israel and Iran appears to be holding after 24 hours.

Meanwhile, President Trump has cast doubt on NATO's founding principle as he arrived at the Military Alliance's annual summit here in Europe. Trump was asked by reporters on Air Force One if he was still committed to Article 5 of NATO, which says that allies will come to the aid of a country under armed attack. Depends on your definition. There's numerous definitions of article, but I'm committed to...

Being friends, you know, I've become friends with many of those leaders.

So the US president's comments, it depends on your definition. It comes as NATO's other leaders try to keep America engaged by promising to ramp up defence spending. So the UK says that it would buy at least 12 new US-made F-35A fighter jets in an attempt to curry favour. And NATO Secretary General Mark Rutter texted the US president to say, quote, Europe is going to pay in a big way.

way as they should and it will be your win. The European Union has planned retaliatory tariffs if the White House keeps its baseline levies on EU goods. Bloomberg has learned that the European Commission is preparing a list of American imports worth 95 billion euros to tax on top of its existing duties. Officials told Bloomberg they expect certain US tariffs will remain in place even if trade talks go well and the EU will respond.

The US has just two weeks left before President Trump's self-imposed pause on tariffs elapses, with only the UK securing any deal on paper so far. Chinese companies are ramping up shipments to Britain in a sign of how US tariffs are reshaping global trade.

Data from Britain's Office for National Statistics shows goods imports from China climbing to £6 billion in April. That's up 11% on a year earlier and the highest in more than two years. Bloomberg's James Walcock has more now. Good things are increasingly coming in small packages.

Imports of low-value Chinese goods in small parcels were up 66% in May compared to the previous year, hitting a UK record. It's the kind of deliveries Xi'an and Timu specialise in, and economists say although trade data is volatile, it's a sign higher US tariffs may be driving cheap goods elsewhere.

Although the shift could put downward pressure on prices, it also has the UK government on watch for unfair competition. In London, James Woolcock, Bloomberg Radio. The Prime Minister, Keir Starmer, says he will push ahead with controversial cuts to UK disability benefits despite a brewing rebellion within his Labour Party. Bloomberg's Ewan Potts has the details.

Keir Starmer says there is a clear moral case to reform the welfare system, signalling he's not going to back down in the face of what could be the biggest parliamentary rebellion his government has faced. Some 108 members of parliament have put their names to an amendment that would sink a key part of the Chancellor's fiscal plans. That number is more than enough to override the government's sizeable Commons majority, risking a humiliating defeat.

At issue is the £5 billion of cuts to the burgeoning bill for disability and sickness-related benefits. Last month, the government announced a dramatic reversal on plans to cut heating payments for pensioners. Keir Starmer now signalling he's not planning a second big U-turn this year. In London, I'm Ewan Potts, Bloomberg Radio.

Well, let's turn our attention to the Federal Reserve Chair, Jerome Powell, who says that higher inflation is keeping rates on hold for now. Speaking to a congressional panel yesterday, the central bank chief repeated his view that there is no rush to adjust policy. If it turns out that inflation pressures do remain contained, then we will get to a place where we cut rates sooner rather than later. But I wouldn't want to say, I wouldn't want to point to

a particular meeting. I don't think we need to be in any rush because the economy is still strong. The labor market is strong.

Powell's comments counter President Trump's calls for an immediate Fed cut and recent statements from Governors Christopher Waller and Michelle Bowman signalling willingness to lower borrowing costs in July. Powell also maintained that the FOMC should remain cautious whilst the impact of President Trump's economic policy becomes clear. The news, though, comes after policymakers voted to leave interest rates unchanged in a range of four and a quarter to four and a half percent last week.

And the former New York governor, Andrew Cuomo, has conceded to younger rival Zoran Mamdani in a stunning upset in the New York City Democratic mayoral primary. According to preliminary results, Mamdani garnered 43.5% of the vote and Cuomo just over 36%.

Here's Bloomberg's Denise Pellegrini. The race is not officially called yet because no one has 50% to the vote, but 67-year-old former Governor Andrew Cuomo has conceded to 33-year-old Democratic Socialist Zoran Mamdani. Tonight was not our night. Tonight was Assemblyman...

Mondani's night, and he put together a great campaign. Mondani, backed by young supporters attracted to his promises of rent freezes and free city buses under New York City's ranked choice, the votes for other candidates start to get redistributed until a candidate gets 50 percent of the vote. And this race is being widely watched as an indicator of future direction of the Democratic Party.

In New York, Denise Pellegrini, Bloomberg Radio. And those are our top stories for you this morning. Right, in the markets, this ceasefire between Israel and Iran seems to be holding. Oil prices are up by 1.2% for Brent crude futures this morning, but we're still trading.

on the 67 hand or 67.98. So there is relief there. Also, we saw the Nasdaq rising 1.5% on Tuesday, notching up another record high versus February. So we've seen a huge rebound for the Nasdaq, something like 30%.

The S&P 500 also climbed 1.1% yesterday. Stock futures this morning are positive, up two-tenths for the euro stocks, 50 futures this morning. It's interesting, though, the markets took Powell's testimony the first day of it yesterday as dovish, which I thought was a little bit strange given that he reiterated this idea of no rush to cut interest rates. But markets did boost today.

bets on a reduction there. Looking at July, it would seem. So, let's see if that changes again today. The other thing to think about too, so European stocks yesterday really rallied 1.1% at the close of the US stocks, 600 lifted by airline stocks. And then just looking at the bond markets, 10-year US yields of 4.3%.

In a moment, more on that US intelligence report on the effect of US strikes on Iran, plus the rivalry, the curious rivalry between two artificial intelligence names for the battle for the office, the workplace who's using AI at work. A word first, though, on another story that's caught our eye. This morning, dating apps are out, matchmakers are in. I really like this story. It's hilarious. At what point could we have told this story over the past 20 years? Uh,

Well, yes, but I think it's the cost of the matchmakers that has surprised me. And also, so this is Bloomberg's Ignacio Gonzalez and Lara Sali have been writing about dating. I did not know that Match Group, which owns Tinder, has been seeing the number of paying clients online decline for hours.

eight consecutive quarters. So actually, yes, the apps are grim. They are becoming less popular. Apparently, match groups, a business isn't expected to return to revenue growth until 2027. But the organisations that are making money and apparently growing are these matchmaking services that cost...

if not tens of thousands of pounds slash dollars slash euros. This just feels like one of those moments where you have sort of a cyclical turn in an industry where all of a sudden dating apps were huge for a certain amount of time. And maybe this is the move on to the next phase. People are going back to in-person connections. But a very interesting read from our colleagues talking through, speaking to those matchmakers and some of the people that use them.

and what they expect out of it and whether or not they think it's good value for money. Yeah. Well, it is if you find it. Well,

Well, that's the point. But then if you don't, are you going to be annoyed that you spent thousands of dollars on a service that didn't yield results? And I suppose what's the science behind it? A really interesting story. We'll put a link to it in our show notes. And you'll find it, of course, on Bloomberg.com and on the terminal. Now, there is a ceasefire holding between Israel and Iran. But Bloomberg has learned that U.S. intelligence assessments show only limited impact from U.S. airstrikes on Tehran's nuclear program. This is despite President Trump saying at the weekend...

that the strikes totally obliterated their targets. Joining us now is Bloomberg's EMEA News Director, Roslyn Matheson. Good morning, Ros. What do we actually know about the damage done to Iran's nuclear program? We have this assessment from the Pentagon and also the IAEA. They clash with President Trump's view. Well, that's right. It's actually interesting to see the White House actually criticizing its own intelligence program.

because as you say, the Defence Intelligence Agency at the Pentagon has found at least an initial assessment is that it's unlikely that the US bombing crippled the core parts of Iran's

nuclear facilities below the ground. Of course, they're deep underground, including their centrifuges. And on the back of that, you've got the IAEA, of course, the UN energy monitors who've been saying for days it's very unclear what's going on, but they doubt that these strikes set back

Iran's atomic ambitions significantly. You know, could it be months? Could it be years? And of course, the question above all is, where is this uranium that's enriched already to a 60 percent level that the IAEA has lost track of? So those bits of evidence in the satellite images that we've got suggest that it's unlikely that significant damage was caused to these

To this light, of course, the view from the White House is that they've been totally obliterated. And that's the line they're sticking to and in line with the Israelis who have said that a key part of their goal in their own strikes against Israel was to destroy these facilities. And so the question really is, as the dust clears, metaphorically and literally, do we get a better sense of

of those facilities. But without enough IAEA monitors on the ground, and there are limited numbers there, it's very hard to verify exactly what's going on.

Roz, this is, of course, as we're watching for further developments out of the Middle East as well. We've had some comments from the Iranian president, Massoud Pazesky, as well, talking about the great wounds that were inflicted by the strikes from Israel as well and claiming that Israel's failed to achieve its goals in Iran. The ceasefire 24 hours on does appear to be holding? It does appear to be holding, although it's very fragile. I mean, even as we saw yesterday,

of an extraordinary 24 to 48 hours. And we had at least a little bit of concern that the ceasefire, which we weren't quite sure when it was going to take effect, having an early wobble with a strike from

from Iran and then Israel feeling the need to respond to that. So it's incredibly fragile. I mean, these are two countries who've been firing missiles and drones at each other only days ago, and getting the two countries to stand down is very difficult given their history, given, of course, the weakening that Israel has done against Iran through its proxies, Hezbollah in Lebanon, its continuing war in Gaza against Iran,

There's a lot of complexity there. So it's very difficult to get a ceasefire and make it stick. And beyond that, it's really hard to get a path towards some kind of more stable diplomacy. Of course, we've seen many rounds of talks to try and get

some kind of deal over Iran's nuclear program. Those talks have gone nowhere. Maybe now they've got a small window. I mean, Iran has obviously seen that Israel and the US mean business. So that might prompt something. But how or when diplomacy can get a chance here, that is also very unclear. Meanwhile, NATO, the NATO gathering, the Secretary General Mark Rutter has dialed up the flattery of President Trump to kind of warp speed.

The president, though, on board Air Force One, you heard him there kind of crackly talking about collective defence. It depends on your definition. This will surely alarm Europeans. Well, it certainly will, because they spent months and months preparing the ground for this meeting, this summit meeting.

NATO leaders and the idea being to basically avoid Donald Trump saying or doing anything that might cast further doubt on NATO. So careful preparations to get people to agree to this 5% defence spending amount. Of course, Spain not yet there, which is awkward and

for Ruta and NATO as a whole, other countries dragging the chain also arguably on that and trying to avoid Trump again putting the question mark over Article 5, which is this framework really under which NATO operates, the idea that you defend each other when needed. I mean, Article 5 is pretty clear on that, but Donald Trump already on the plane over musing aloud about what

it might mean. And that's really what we've been expecting, the idea that for Europe at least this has all been a significant change

wake-up call for Europe when you're thinking about the future. You've got to presume that the US may not be there, even despite the Article 5 existing, or coming to aid in a different way than you'd expect, different kinds of assistance. And that's certainly the parameters that Donald Trump now seems to be laying out. So whether he commits to something at the end of this remains to be seen. We'll see in a press conference later today. But certainly it's off to a bit of a wobbly start.

Okay. RMEA News Director Rosalyn Matheson, thank you. For enterprise organizations, managing all your food needs is a tall order. But with EasyCater, you get a single workplace food vendor with the tools and resources to make it easy, giving teams across your organization an easy way to order from a huge variety of restaurants, all on one platform, all while consolidating your corporate food spend so you can control costs, streamlining billing and payment and simplifying reporting.

EasyCater, your business tool for food. To learn more, visit easycater.com slash podcast. How can you grow your business from idea to industry leader? Bring your vision to life with smart business buying tools and technology from Amazon Business.

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Now, as more people start using artificial intelligence tools at work, competition is heating up for enterprise contracts. So Microsoft, the dominant supplier of workplace software, is seeing its AI assistant co-pilot lose out to OpenAI's chat GPT. The behind-the-scenes dogfight is complicating an already fraught relationship between Microsoft and OpenAI. Our reporter Tiwa Adebayo is here with more on this. Tiwa, good morning.

How big do you think the rivalry between Microsoft and OpenAI is? Well, the answer is it's pretty big. It's certainly very lucrative and it's actually still growing. It's something of an unlikely situation actually given that Microsoft has invested nearly $14 billion in OpenAI since 2019. So, you'd think they might be all in on the firm. But

Actually, also in that time, Microsoft has backed other rival AI startups. They've built their own models and they've stalled OpenAI's restructuring plan. So the relationship is slightly fraught. On the other side of that equation, you have OpenAI. They've signed deals with rival cloud computing partners, so Microsoft rivals.

And, for example, they've recently agreed to acquire AI coding assistant Windsurf, which directly competes with Microsoft's GitHub Copilot. So the two seem to be the frenemies in the tech world at best. But they're also, of course, competing for market share in the corporate world. OpenAI is

says it has 3 million paying business users, whilst a Microsoft spokesperson said Copilot is being used by 70% of the Fortune 500, and their paid users have tripled compared with this time last year. So, it does seem that Microsoft is slightly edging ahead in that corporate race for now. But as our reporting shows, that could all be about to change.

So, what are they competing on, I suppose? What are the selling points for each of these companies with their products? Well, that's the thing, Stephen. They're quite similar. So, both companies are essentially pitching AI assistance that can help with the sort of labour-intensive administrative tasks in the workplace. So, writing, research, analysing data. And they're saying that they can free up workers to focus on more meaningful challenges.

And it gets worse because both chatbots are largely based on the same open AI model. So very similar offering on both sides. A Microsoft spokesperson is quoted in a really detailed story about this on the terminal. And they say that what sets them apart is fine tuning the technology for business use. So after all, Microsoft has been in the corporate space for much longer.

programs like Outlook and Excel, for example, they're workplace staples. So they know what's going on. And whilst ChatGPT dominates the consumer space, Microsoft says they're in tune with business needs. And that's why they have Barclays and Accenture, for example, as clients. But

But our reporting is showing that many office workers are convinced that ChatGPT is the better product after using it in their personal lives. And so now they're actually convincing their bosses to make the switch over to OpenAI.

Hmm. So in terms of the border effects, then, on the use of AI on the workplace, I mean, I must admit, I've been messing about with AI, but it is much more, you know, at home to the things for things outside of work is obviously going to be coming to workplaces in a big way.

Yeah, I mean, there's been a number of reports saying that there are benefits of using AI in the workplace in terms of productive capacity and also really speeding up those menial tasks. For example, this week, there's new research from MIT that says AI agents can raise worker productivity by 60%. So, AI agents being complex sort of artificial intelligence models that can work autonomously and can actually be fine-tuned to employee personality types as well. So,

some pretty high-level things going on. Some are really just banking on this technology for a breakthrough. We heard from Andrew Bailey recently, governor of the Bank of England, who suggested that AI could be used to sort of counter the collapse in the UK's long-term growth rate by really boosting productivity.

But having said that, there are concerns about the potential for AI use at work to lead to job cuts, especially when it comes to junior roles. Those are the ones that usually comprise of more of the administrative tasks. And they're largely taken up by graduates who are already facing a difficult job market. So some concerns there. It's not all positive news when it comes to AI in the workplace, but it's certainly making an impact so far.

This is Bloomberg Daybreak Europe, your morning brief on the stories making news from London to Wall Street and beyond. Look for us on your podcast feed every morning on Apple, Spotify and anywhere else you get your podcasts. You can also listen live each morning on London DAB Radio, the Bloomberg Business App and Bloomberg.com. Our flagship New York station is also available on your Amazon Alexa devices. Just say Alexa, play Bloomberg 1130.

I'm Caroline Hipker. And I'm Stephen Carroll. Join us again tomorrow morning for all the news you need to start your day, right here on Bloomberg Daybreak Europe.

For enterprise organizations, managing all your food needs is a tall order. But with EasyCater, you get a single workplace food vendor with the tools and resources to make it easy, giving teams across your organization an easy way to order from a huge variety of restaurants, all on one platform. All while consolidating your corporate food spend so you can control costs, streamlining billing and payment and simplifying reporting.

EasyCater, your business tool for food. To learn more, visit easycater.com slash podcast. Every business starts with an idea. How can you go from daydreamer to industry leader? Amazon Business accelerates your journey. With smart business buying, get everything you need to grow in one familiar place, from office supplies to IT essentials and maintenance tools.

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