Inside United’s player data department and Spurs preview
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This is Talk The Devils, the athletics podcast dedicated to Manchester United. I say this most of the time, but what a packed podcast we have in store today. There is so much to go through despite Manchester United not playing in this midweek. It's been another week of worrying news off the pitch with the athletic exclusive of more redundancies at Manchester United. We'll reflect on that. We also take a look at how the drive for data is driving Ineos' reshaping of the club, which is far more interesting than it sounds.

I think. And we preview Sunday's showdown against Spurs as well. Critch will be joining us shortly, actually, to do that sexy bit on data. But for the moment, we've got Andy Mitton, we've got Karl Anka, and we've got Laurie Whitwell as well. Good morning, gentlemen. How are we? I'm great. You sound chirpy. That's good. Andy, chirpy? I'm all right, mate. I think the Manchester United mood is pretty low, but I'm all right. I'm looking forward to this. Andy, I saw Man United win a match last night. That's why I'm pepped. Yeah? Well, the under-18s. Yeah.

I watched a lot of it. It was a great result, wasn't it? In the FA Youth Cup against a Chelsea team who have been more successful in that competition than any other this century. So, top win and congratulations to everyone involved. I'm sure we'll discuss it more. Yeah, we will. Keep your powder dry on that. Carl, we're going to talk about the FA Cup draw first because that's happened since we last spoke and it's Fulham at home in the fifth round. We're back to home draws against Premier League sides. Ooh, that's nice. Yeah.

If it's as entertaining as the last time United played Fulham in the FA Cup, I'll take that. I just hope there's no penalties awarded against Fulham because I wouldn't want to see that happen again. That was quite a meltdown, wasn't it? Well, you know all about meltdowns, don't you, Ian, after your episode last night? Well, yeah, I was at Goodison Park. My goodness me. Right.

It's open though, isn't it, Larry? The Cup this season. I mean, I don't want to get too carried away considering how downbeat we've been about Manchester United on recent episodes. But six wins in eight and Arsenal out, Chelsea out, Liverpool out. Let's get excited for the FA Cup. I mean...

you know, I'm kind of, you know, hoping, thinking that the Europa League might present the chance for silverware because obviously the riches that it comes with if they win it, you know, the Champions League qualification. But United's affection for the FA Cup is, you know, longstanding. It was the competition, obviously, that Sir Alex Ferguson won to kind of give his reign a kickstart. It's the competition that I saw, you know, one of my earliest memories, Eric Cantona putting the ball through a forest of Liverpool players at Wembley. Um,

and that sort of ignited my childhood and so yeah I'm sure if United you know can do the same as they did last season there's fans that will only remember last season for United beating City in the FA Cup final even though it was a desperate season for the majority of it and it's been another even more desperate season this year if they can end it with some kind of silverware you know hopefully at Wembley then I think people might ultimately think back fondly I

I went Carl Intonation there at the end there because I wasn't really sure. If you can rescue silverware from this situation that Carl and Andy have used very choice words on in recent times, then they're not doing badly. Just a word on the women as well. They're also through to the quarterfinals in their competition of the FA Cup. They had a 6-0 win over Lower League Wolves.

in the last round a word for 17 year old debutant Marad Griffiths who scored twice in her first appearance which is a definitely a start to remember and all the big four have been kept apart in the draw United are against Sunderland chances to reclaim the trophy on that side of the club Carl as well to be fair United women could make three consecutive FA Cup finals

if they get Osiris Wembley which would be quite the thing one of the big strengths of the team right now is just their defence their centre back pairing is exceptional and Skinner's made them a team that just racks up clean sheets we know he's best 11 we know his preferred players but

and there might be a case of can you rotate a little bit, get other players up to speed, but look, when it clicks with that team, very nice. Very nice. Yeah, yeah, it's looking up to be fair. Crystal Palace at home on Saturday lunchtime, that's an opportunity to move within four points of Chelsea at the top of the WSL as well for a couple of hours at least. So, yeah, something to keep an eye on certainly, and we'll talk about them more as the weeks go by. The FA Youth Cup though, Laurie, you teased it earlier, 5-1 against Chelsea. That's some result, isn't it?

I think so, yeah. I mean, as Andy says, Chelsea have been a powerhouse of youth football for many years now and maybe this sort of version of the team isn't as strong as it once was. But I do wonder if that's because United made them look that way. I thought it was a really impressive performance and I'm kind of one to not get too excited about academy players because I'm always saying there's a big gap to the first team level and

I kind of want to make sure that there's not too much excitement and too much hype, I suppose, and expectations are over the top. But I thought, you know, they've been doing this for a couple of seasons now. Certainly last season was excellent under Adam Lawrence, the under-18s head coach, and the guys at the academy. It feels like they've got a good, solid group here. And yeah, I thought this was another really good season

overall from many players. Yeah, I mean, obviously Chido, Obi will take the headlines with the hat trick. A kind of repeat of what I've seen previously from him where he doesn't do loads in the game, but he's always on hand to finish the chances. I mean, he actually had a couple more chances that he could have added even more to his tally, but he just has a knack for knowing where to be in the box and then putting the...

you know correct finish on it so James Scanlon got another couple as well but there was performances all over the um the pitch I thought Jacob Devaney the captain excellent performance sort of really strong running as an engine in midfield putting tackles in getting about the place and it was actually beautiful to see when he came off he had a massive smile on his face knew that he'd done a good job and he got sort of uh the the recognized congratulations from from the bench as well um

And I thought also Jack Fletcher, some of the touches that he produced, the pass with the outside of his left foot through to James Scanlon. It looked like, did he really mean that? But then you see it on the replays and you're thinking, yeah, I think he did actually. So yeah, just a really...

enjoyable night to be at Leigh Sports Village. Good crowd there as well. And yeah, hopefully they can go on and keep progressing. Was it, Laurie? Was it a good crowd? I do not think it was a good crowd. 700 odd? No, I think it was a terrible crowd. I would have liked the game to be played at Old Trafford. Yeah, that's fair. And I think 700 is a really poor crowd. Leigh is a major factor. You know, it's midweek in winter is a factor as well. But yeah,

I wasn't there, you were there, but I thought 700 was a low crowd. The noise was pretty good. In terms of when I'm saying good crowd, I thought they were really engaged and they really showed their appreciation. The support rather than the numbers. Yeah, yeah, sure. I accept your point. I mean, Old Trafford, there were certainly discussions around holding at Old Trafford, but I

I think the calendar has proved difficult to fit it in. But then again, I'm sure they could have done if they'd really wanted to. So, yeah, I agree on that point, certainly. And that was a theme of the 2022 run, wasn't it? Where, I mean, that crowd at Old Trafford for the final, you know, for the best podcast ever recorded afterwards, was absolutely stunning. So, yeah, I see where you're coming from on that point. I don't know, I suppose, Lee, I'm trying to think, I've not...

I've not seen, for a youth game, I've not seen many crowds of that size, maybe in the UEFA Youth League perhaps. But it didn't feel particularly... It felt like about the right size of crowd for where we were at. But I accept that obviously Old Trafford would have been able to attract a lot more. I think United felt the game against Chelsea would be much more difficult because Chelsea are very strong, but they're undergoing a lot of changes on their youth side.

They've won the Youth Cup nine times. There's only Manchester United won it more than them. But I think United controlled the game, even when the team went down. It's a good group of lads, this. I spent a few days for the Athletic inside that academy system last April. There's a good blend of local lads and a few high potential ones who've been added nationally because the way they recruit has totally changed the

since Brexit, and it's how a good United youth team should look. I think you've got to credit the coaches, the recruiters, people like Dave Bushell, unsung heroes, Tony Whelan's put a lot into the youth system over the years. You've got the host families helping these boys settle in Manchester, and I know everyone's going to talk about Chido, but as Laurie said, there's some brilliant other performances, Jacob Devaney,

He joined United when he was seven years old. His dad was a former professional footballer. He's now assistant manager at Barnsley, Will Murdoch in goal. I met Will last year. Great save, by the way. Great save. And he did well against AZ at Old Trafford in the youth game that I saw as well there. Yeah. So his dad, Colin, was a young professional at Manchester United, part of the youth team that won the Milk Cup in Northern Ireland in 91 from the same village as my great-grandmother,

And I think it's a really good performance. We got Arsenal next in the quarterfinal in two weeks' time. Do you know the record in the FA Youth Cup? It was for Arsenal against United in 2007, 38,000. That was the record until Manchester United smashed it with that 22 final against Nottingham Forest at Old Trafford. So I think the club needed that win this week because...

It's been pretty low, as I was saying, so congratulations to everyone there. Yeah, definitely. We all echo that. Chido Obi, and that is his name, it seems to be sort of accepted that Chido Obi Martin...

is how the media are referring to him as. But Martin, I'm told, is actually his middle name. So it is Chido Obi. So people need to start getting that right, really. And he's forcing people to type this name out week by week, Kyle, isn't he? Because we're right to keep a lid on expectations. Anyone we've spoken to at the club echoes that as well. But when you look back to that 2022 win in the FA Youth Cup, it provided a real platform for Alejandro Garnaccio,

more immediately, but then Kobi Mainu as well to make that jump to the first team. And scoring a hat-trick against Chelsea last night is not going to dampen people's expectation, is it? No, no. We keep trying to put a lid on it and then keep scoring a bunch of goals that try to force it open. I saw more than one person suggest that he should be

given a chance in the first team yet, to which I'm going, hang on, there's another level in the academy still that he could play in. You know, we still haven't seen him on the 23 level right now. Look, he is phenomenal on their 18. I had one person who was at the game message me saying he stole more than one defender's lunch money and he's just physically dominant and his movement in and around the box at this level is exceptional. However, there are

two or three other levels that you need to go to first and the idea of throwing him into a Manchester United team that doesn't score too many goals and is struggling to service some of his more senior strikers does make me a little bit uneasy if he's in a good groove right now let him continue this good groove in an environment that's working well for him so I look forward to seeing him in the future

But yeah, the future doesn't need to start today. No, let him win the Youth Cup first. Just one more mention. Darren Fletcher and his wife Hayley watched the game last night. Imagine what it must have been like for them watching their two sons playing. So Darren and Hayley met at Ashton-on-Mersey School. That's where all the young Manchester United players come from. It was a proper Manchester United story, this. And they both had good games as well, so...

That's it from me on that game last night, which I wasn't even at, but I think there's some relevant points there. You mentioned Tony Whelan, actually, in one of your answers before, and I think we should probably take this opportunity to pay a bit of a tribute to him. He's a legend of the Manchester United Academy. Spent, what, 30 years, pretty much? In fact, more than, looking after the players there and being responsible for so many players.

young men making it to the first team at Old Trafford and obviously having careers elsewhere as well. Tony's a top man. I see him at Trafford FC games. He's firmly part of the community. He's got a lot of

he's been a stalwart of Manchester United. I've lost count of the numbers of interviews I've done with former players who name-check him and Dave Bushell. And it's always, I moved to Manchester, I didn't know anybody. Tony Whelan, Dave Bushell, they were the people who really pushed me in my schoolwork, who checked up on me. Football's only one part of the life. And statistically, if you join Manchester United's youth system as a kid, you're probably not going to make the first team. And I...

I've known Tony for a long, long time. My opinion of him is so high and I think everybody else is at Manchester United. And he moves on. I know I'll carry on seeing him at local football. He's a great supporter of local football. Brilliant. What an innings he's done. Yeah, it was actually quite surprising because it wasn't really... His departure wasn't really announced in a big way, right? It was just kind of...

Nick Cox, I think the Academy director, sent around an email to people and expressed what you're saying there, Andy, in terms of the great work that he's done. But it was sort of, I think, put on United website as a kind of roundup. And I think that was perhaps a reflection of his

determination to stay out of the spotlight even though he's helped all these people throughout all the years and I think that kind of shows the kind of character that he is and so therefore we're giving him his garlands right? Yeah he's dead modest he'll hate the attention so we should take it one step further and save up for like a statue of him in Urmston Town Centre so he can't even go shopping Get him on the pitch before the Ipswich game or something like that that would be a real recognition of what is a

Totally, Ian. I know we say this with a smile. No, no, I'm serious. Absolutely. Complete stalwart of Manchester United. Yeah, and obviously the academy is such an important part of the club now and always has been and I'm sure always will be.

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Right. It's critch time, ladies and gentlemen. Cool.

Can I go for a wee very quickly? Yeah, you go for a wee, mate. Keep it in the podcast. Keep it in.

you could have done that at any point I know but I didn't just sneak off I didn't want to interrupt yeah but then you might think is he coming back is this a nervous wee or have you needed it no no I've literally necked like a whole like two pints one of Barocca and one of water and I've just we've been sat here for like 45 minutes you're going empty why Barocca where have you been Barocca daily mate is it oh right same same same is it he's what he's necked a pint of Rioja

Oli, you've got to keep playing exactly that line as well.

Okay, let's welcome your friend and mine, Mark Critchley, on to Talk of the Devils. Mark, Critch, thank you for being here. Boys, how are we doing? Brilliant to be back. Pleasure as always. Good. We'll get into your data department deep dive in a moment, which actually is an extremely revealing read on The Athletic and lots of interesting detail in there for Manchester United fans. But I wanted to start

this section by talking about Adam Crafton's exclusive story on The Athletic from Tuesday that Manchester United are planning on making more than 100 members of staff redundant. That obviously adds to the 250 who will let go in the summer. Andy, what's your reaction to this? Well, it was the direction of travel established. I've said it on this podcast from when I spoke to Jim Ratcliffe. There'll be more departures and there'll be more appointments as well. And some of them will be

high level. I feel firstly, sorry for people who are losing their jobs on a human level. Said that right along. People have done nothing wrong, but work hard and are paying the price for the failings of others. Equally, cuts were needed. I don't like using the word bloated because I think it can infer that people weren't pulling the weight, but the workforce in comparison with other clubs was bloated and

And had Manchester United stayed as a successful Champions League high-achieving team, this wouldn't be an issue. But they didn't. So this is where the cuts are coming in. And I know good people who've left the club, who are going to leave the club. I don't think the people who are going know yet. And I think it will be more targeted now.

And I've had a couple of different versions and none of them are as high as some of the numbers that have been reported. What do you mean, sorry Andy? More targeted as in maybe not redundancies. Maybe people are deciding to leave of their own accord. I certainly know a couple of examples of that for various reasons. Maybe they're not overly impressed with the way the club's gone, so they've made that decision themselves.

maybe they're retiring, for example. But it is a further slimming down, but I also think there will be new appointments. I think it's a pretty concerning development. I know we've been sort of trailing this, right, but to have potentially another 200 people go when they've already chopped 250, and these are some of the serious numbers that are being discussed. What is the number, Laurie? You just said nearly 200 there, and obviously Adam's story was over 100. What?

Which is the more accurate, do you think? I'm not sure, obviously. We'll find out in the wash. I mean, Adam's story is excellently sourced, but I think the information is 100 to 200. But from speaking to people, there's a sense that perhaps it might be as much as 200. And that comes after last summer where I believe the original messaging was that this would be the ripping the plaster off message.

this is the only round of redundancies that will happen so either something's changed or that was not the right messaging to be putting out at that moment and yeah

I totally accept Andy's point and Ineos' point that the trims, I think, probably weren't necessary. But then United are a different kind of club to other clubs. You can't really compare them as like for like because some of the clubs outsource their catering, for example, or they don't have the same scale of commercial department. And maybe Ineos think, OK, we don't need that kind of size commercial department because...

football first but actually the commercial department was making money for United you know the reason why United lose money is because they've been signing bad players you know or spending excessively on players that's why they're in this situation so then to sort of I guess make people redundant for that feels out of kilter really but listen this is what Sir Jim Ratcliffe wants I'd be interested to know if there's been any kind of proper research done into the number of staff that is required to

a club like Manchester United or whether it's a kind of a random figure that wants to be implemented so yeah I think there's plenty to go at in this scenario

Yeah, definitely. I mean, Critch, just to spell it out really, Andy mentioned that these cuts were necessary. The finances are stark, aren't they? Yeah, look, I mean, it's something that I've been writing about for the best part of 18 months now, even before INEOS came in. United's financial situation was clear and you can look at it from a number of different perspectives. We've spoken a lot about PSR and FFP, you know, until our heads have fallen off, we've talked about that. And United still have...

it's still tight on that measure and there's going to be, you know, difficult decisions that need to be made in order to make sure that they come under that threshold.

But there's also the cash problem that we've written about recently as well. You have, yes, PSL, we all focus on that, but the club hasn't been generating money. If it hadn't been for the money that Jim Ratcliffe put in last season, and if it hadn't been for the money that they have essentially spent on their credit card, the club would have a negative cash flow. There'd be more money going out the club than there would be coming in.

and on top of that you've got five years of consecutive losses so the picture that you build when you look through the accounts is one that is a club that does need difficult decisions to be made but I personally though I would never sit here and advocate it for to be ordinary people who are earning you know not significant sums of money to be the ones who pay the cost for that but

Unfortunately, within football, within wider society, under capitalism, if you like, that is often the case. One thing I would be concerned about, and I think Andy touches on it there, and it's something that's actually come up in other pieces that I've been writing about recently too, United doesn't feel like a place where people want to work so much anymore. Do you know what I mean? Andy's talking about people perhaps leaving of their own accord.

the culture, you know, United to work for a club of the size and the stature and the presence of Manchester United used to be such a, such a cashier. You'd have people go in there where they might be able to get paid better at different clubs, but they'd want to work for United. I just worry maybe some of that is being lost in the wash here is, is,

as Ineos Ratcliffe take decisions that okay maybe necessary but are they really in keeping with the culture and the values of the club yeah on that point Kyle how damaging is this news because it feels like the bad news just keeps on coming at the moment really doesn't it whether that's on the pitch or off it it's been a difficult week no midweek game means you can spend a little bit more time talking to people in and around both Manchester United and other football clubs you want to get a lay of the land see how clubs are doing post transfer window but

And a lot of the noise I'm hearing around Manchester United isn't great. United being negative clash for five years is down to bad business decisions and wages being spent on football players that have not been able to get Manchester United to get into the Champions League and stay into the Champions League. And now people much lower down the pyramid, however you want to call it, are suffering. How would you go about solving that? No idea. When football matches...

Well, time as well. I mean, that was a suggestion that Sir Jim Radcliffe made to you, Andy, in your interview for United We Stand. I mean, to spell it out, they've not just made losses in the past five years. They've lost £370 million in the last five years. There was a £113 million loss in 2023, 2024 alone. This is a serious issue for the future of the club, really, to be honest, with numbers that high.

And obviously, it's been reported as well that meeting the PSR requirements for the Premier League has needed United to have extraordinary allowances for losses during COVID that no other club seemed to need. Also, as well, now the extraordinary cost...

in the last tax year of Sir Jim Radcliffe's investment in Manchester United as well. What was the impression you got from him, Andy, when he spoke to you about this? It's been a very complicated deal, Ian. And you can trace the problems back to 2005 with the Glazer takeover. So, I mean, this is the elephant in the room here. If the Glazers weren't involved in Manchester United, then Sir Jim Radcliffe would have...

a much easier job to do a job that's been complicated by financial fair play rules which didn't exist when the Glazers took over the club is in debt partly because of interest payments to service the the loans taken out by the Glazers following their highly leveraged buyout they took dividends for for many years as well how high are those payments now the interest payments every year do we know a number Critch maybe this is your department

Yeah, they've risen in the last couple of years to about, you're looking at about 32, 33 million per year in the last couple of years. That's because there is rising interest rates around the world. It costs more to borrow money now and United have...

have been in debt since the glazer takeover right so they're yeah and the debt's in dollars as well isn't it so the exchange rate also has an effect negatively at the moment this this is getting into areas which i absolutely have no understanding of and it's concerning that i'm the expert on this podcast trying to explain it but essentially yes uh and i the dollar value is very strong at the minute and it's only predicted really to get stronger and that means that those interest payments will will increase

So I keep coming back to thinking, Jim Ratcliffe's done a deal, but is it a good deal? And if not, could a good deal be done? For who? For him. Has he bitten off more than he can chew? The Glazers have so much control. They only went to market when they realised that this couldn't carry on. The club couldn't continue losing so much money.

So in desperation to stay in the Champions League, they'd make these Varane and Casemiro type purchases, you know, off the shelf. This guy's going to improve the team tomorrow. And they did. But INEOS are going for a very different strategy, which long term should see a better Manchester United. And Manchester United didn't need a benefactor, but equally they're being weighed down by the debts. It's a huge football club with massive potential. And, you know,

And it's all just hit at the same time. So I've been writing for 20 years about Old Trafford and the need to stay with the times. And people ignored me for like 15 years until it became more of an issue. They really did. They'd mock you and say, what are you on about? We need a number nine. I said, no, no, no. I'm a stadium nerd. I know what I'm on about. It's starting to slide. It was the best stadium. Jim Ratcliffe's done this deal. He's putting his own money in.

I've said a few podcasts ago, anyone could have come forward to put money into Manchester United. Anyone in the world could have come forward to. I think he's made some mistakes. It looks really weird when they make a big fanfare over Dan Ashworth and then he loses his job. We've spoken at length about the ticket prices. That's going to become a major issue. That's going to dominate the fan culture for the next few months because a rise is coming and we don't know what that rise is going to be.

But the Glazers are the root of all this. And it's really interesting talking to Jim Ratcliffe because in one paragraph he's like, the Glazers are fantastic people. Absolutely wonderful, fantastic people. The next paragraph, this has been a complete shit show. We've got to change everything. So he's walking the thinnest of tightropes. Not that I know of any fat tightropes. LAUGHTER

I don't have any solution. But on that, Andy, has he not contradicted himself as well in the interview? Because he talked about inheriting a financial situation that only time will solve. That's what I was referring to before. But at the same time, while he's been in charge of Manchester United seemingly...

They've spent £21 million pretty much to back Eric Ten Haag, then sack him and his backroom team, appoint Ruben Amorim, bring in his backroom team. The Danish for the situation cost an estimated £5 million. They spent £200 million on...

who have not made the biggest impact on United as well. And that's all his financial mismanagement, really. All viewed with hindsight, none of that looks good. You could also say, why bring Ruben Amor in mid-season if he's not going to be given significant amounts of money to change the system? He would have been quite happy to stay at Sporting and that becomes more prevalent with every Manchester United defeat. At the time when people are calling the shots, there's a big main...

sway of opinion for Eric Ten Hag to stay at Manchester United. And he did have a long contract. So he would have been needed paying off anyway. What really baffled me, and I said it on the pod at the time, why give him a new contract? They felt they had to trigger it, didn't they? Because otherwise he would have been a lame duck even more than he was. But that was also because of them going around looking for a manager, wasn't it? I think this is a case of...

It can be fairly straightforward to recognize problems that other people are making, but then you wade into an environment and then you start making your own ones.

Ineos are making mistakes because every football ownership group, every sports ownership group, to some degree, make some sort of financial mistakes or some form of decision-making mistakes. One of the problems right now with Ineos is they're currently having to do two jobs, which has sought out a lot of the mess that has been created by the Glazers, while also trying to minimize the amount of mistakes they make before they go off and do whatever they have to do next. When Critch writes about how much money is owed in transfer fees...

right you're just like right okay so you've got a payoff 319 million 319 million and is it what 148 million 154 I want to say in this year yes which we should say is like most clubs do this right but United I think in the

In the Premier League, they're second behind Chelsea on that measure. And it's more the point, coming right back to the start of this conversation, what Andy said, is that they've been spending that consistently despite not being a Champions League team, despite not being a consistent top four side. They've spent a Champions League budget on a Europa League lifestyle, whatever, right? They haven't been able to cash the checks that they've been writing, essentially. And that is a legacy of the Glazers, I think. And it's important that that is...

front and centre and I agree that INEOS right now they've got this huge task ahead of them to try and turn that around and that is going to involve making difficult decisions ones that people won't agree with

I do think at the same time, INEOS need to be held accountable for all the reasons that we've just said there, and they're making mistakes on their own watch. And they might argue, look, you can't make an omelette without breaking a few eggs, right? And at least they're trying to change something. That is the argument they will make, and that is at least something compared to, let's face it, 15 years under the Glazers, 20 years under the Glazers, where basically nothing really changed, nothing really happened. There was no attempt to improve things whatsoever.

So it's a balancing act. I think both do need to be held accountable at the same time. Yeah, OK. I mean, there's also stories emerging now on The Athletic in the last few days, Laurie, about INEOS's wider interest in sport. A pretty concerning episode with the New Zealand rugby team, issues in sailing, also wider issues with the non-sporting

interests of INEOS as well. I mean, how concerning do you think it is for Manchester United fans, all this? Jacob White had written an excellent piece on this topic on The Athletic. Yeah, I think that combined with the redundancies just paints a clear picture as to how difficult this really is. And maybe...

there was an expectation that the initial round of redundancies and INEOS coming in and kind of being more tight with the finances, you know, making decisions like in the January transfer window where they don't go for Matthijs Tell, who's, you know, five million pound loan fee. They say, no, we can't afford that. We want to be correct about our financial decisions.

actually this is going to be a long time fixing and we might come on to it in terms of you know potential summer transfers we're sort of flicking it ahead to that already and speaking to people around that you know they they

it's the same situation it feels like where it's either a sale to get a really big signing in or they're going to have to be really cute with what they go and do and I think the broader picture of Ineos' sporting interests yeah it's surprising right I mean getting into a legal fight with Ben Ainslie it feels unedifying getting into a legal fight with the New Zealand rugby team feels unedifying particularly when it

In Jacob's piece, the INEOS deal worth £22 million, I think six-year deal. So you're not talking huge sums of money for what INEOS as a global company are able to produce. And I think there's been also reports on the credit rating of INEOS as well, sort of more recently in terms of the change in income.

dynamics around the world, that's what they're putting it down to. But equally, you're sort of putting all these things together thinking, okay, what is the reality of the situation? Ratcliffe has put his own money in. That is by far above what the Glazers have ever done. They've dragged the club down and Critch's point about the interest rate, 30 odd million per year, that is scandalous. That is obviously...

a player, wages, that is so much money. I mean, how many staff is that at the club? Whatever you might want to say about keeping it streamlined, it's absolutely outrageous. Well, especially considering how much money Sir Jim Radcliffe has paid for this investment that has gone entirely to the Blazer family. That's it, and then you get into the stadium situation. They could have wiped all of this out easily and still had change and still had 70% of the...

the club still in their pocket as well. They've fixed the system to their means, haven't they? By making the shares, you know, worth 10 times what they are on the New York Stock Exchange. You know, I don't know how that's allowed. I don't know how the leverage takeover was allowed. And so, and then you get to this point about the stadium and, and, and,

we've talked about before, just very touch upon it quickly, but would they allow Jim Ratcliffe to actually put his own money in to help build a stadium if that meant he got equity? The feeling is no, because that would dilute their own investment, which is just, it's very, very sad. And I think that's what this whole period now is ramming home to people, that it's a long, long fix and a very complicated one.

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Okay, well I've teased it before, but the main reason Critch is with us is not just to crunch numbers, it's also to crunch some data analysis with us. So more crunching numbers then, basically, yeah? Sort of, but you need to explain why you've crunched numbers to work out why number crunching is an interesting topic for Manchester United at the moment. I mean, what's the story with this? You've written it on The Athletic, I'm sure people have read it already, but for those who haven't,

What is the story?

And the truth is that for a long time, United weren't doing very much at all. The first Premier League clubs, if you talk about the pace setters in this field, they were hiring their first data scientists around 2010, 2011. United only did that in 2021 with the appointment of Dominic Jordan, who was the first director of data science there.

Now, people would have been aware of him coming in. Again, there's been more and more questions since what are United doing in this field? And Dominic Jordan actually left the club last summer. And so there has been something of a vacuum there. So we just wanted to answer a few questions about that.

It's a story of being in a very innovative, cutting-edge field and trying to play catch up to your rivals. It's going to be difficult. That's what United have spent the last two and a half years doing, speaking to people around the club, people with knowledge of the field. The message was, yeah, United have basically made progress. They've put the building blocks in place, done a lot of the foundational work that was necessary in order to compete with the pace setters within the Premier League.

But there's still a lot of work left to do. And I don't think it's been helped that over the past nearly past year or the past six months, certainly, they've had no director of data science since Jordan left. There's been no stable director of football given John Murtagh's departure, who set up this department and then the departure of Dan Ashworth after that, obviously.

And all this feeds into, you may remember Jim Ratcliffe sitting down with a fanzine called United We Stand back in December and saying that the data analysis was from the last century.

Is that fair? That's the question that we were essentially trying to answer. I don't think it's totally fair. Like I say, I think there's been progress. I think the club has done the basic foundational work that it needs to do and that you would expect it to do in that time. Ratcliffe, you know, he shoots from the hip quite a lot, right? We've come to know that now. So it's not always the fairest representation that he puts forward when he's speaking publicly. But...

There is absolutely still a lot of work to do to catch up with rivals. How crucial is this, Carl? I mean, Critch and Mark Carey have written the piece. They mention in it that stats are beginning to creep into signing announcements, which maybe shows a little bit of how the influence of data is getting towards the forefront of Manchester United's thinking. So Patrick Dorgue won second most ground duels and attempted fourth most take-ons of any defender in Serie A this season. That was in the announcement when Dorgue signed.

Yeah, it was. And I... Yeah. Hmm. Hmm. Explain those noises, please. All right. Okay. How important is it to make sure your data team is up to snuff? It's very important. It's crucial, right? The number one problem with United outside of this huge financial bin fire is recruitment. And...

If you look at the teams right now in the Premier League that are experiencing success, they have got recruitment nailed on or they have a very clear idea as to what their recruitment is. Now, the importance of making sure your data is accurate

however, whatever adjective you want to use, is that feeds into your recruitment, not just recruitment on player level, but also recruitment on coaching staff and recruitment on blah, everything essentially. So you get your data good, you get the people who are good at data, they're really, really empowered to do that. And then also, crucially, and I think this is another bit that has been an issue around Manchester United, is you have people that know how to turn the data into information. So you know the...

In the computing science, data is numbers and information is the bit that explains it. And we at The Athletic, when I'm... And Laurie's experienced this, Critch has experienced this, everyone, all of our writers have experienced this. If you need data on a football player, you need a heat map, you want to have some analysis on a football player, you go over to the data team. It's a bit like a James Bond film where you go off to meet Q and he gives you a poison pen.

Let's say Laurie wants to get a shot map of Rasmus Hoyland. Remind me never to borrow a pen off you, Carl. That won't take long either, by the way. Right. Let's say Laurie wants to get a shot map of every single shot Rasmus Hoyland's taken this season. He'll go off and talk to Mark Carey or Tom Harris or someone in our data team and they'll go into the data team and get you, get Laurie a shot map. However, they don't just give Laurie the shot map. They also give him information as to how to use the shot map properly. The point is, very important things. Hoyland's left-footed.

If Hoyland's taking loads of shots from outside the box, whether or not that's a good thing or a bad thing. They'll also point out if Hoyland's taking loads of shots that are being blocked, which suggests he's trying to shoot through a crowd of bodies. So that way, Laurie's a better writer and doesn't just say, Hoyland's taking loads of shots between the information bit. And again, this piece that Critch and Kerry have done is fantastic. And this week I've spoken to a lot of data people who have read it and gone, what is going on over there?

And the overwhelming feedback from the data nerds is, one, United are running lap five of a race at a faster rate than they're running lap three. But also football clubs like Brighton, Forest and whatnot are on lap 30, just going great. And two, there's very clearly a problem in terms of who is turning that data into information and usable information to the people involved.

Who need it? And there have been times where I've spoken to John Murtagh and John Murtagh is talking about data and I'm going, that's not a good sentence. What type of things? What's not a good sentence? Okay, so one of the big rules we have in the data team

sample size right so very early in the season you come on and go oh so-and-so is doing well can I have a look at how many shots he's taken and the data team goes try not to wait until the 10th Premier League game of the season because the sample size isn't big enough some players can run hot some players can't run hot and sometimes you see someone who mentions a stat you're like the sample size isn't big enough that's not good data that's not a good use of data or try and refrain from using statistics when you are referring to a single centre-back

Because being a centre-back is very, very noisy, right? Data can show you how many tackles a defender or defensive midfielder is making. They can't tell you if the fact that they're doing loads of tackles is a good thing or a bad thing. Are they doing loads of tackles because their team is on the back foot and they're really busy? Or are they doing loads of tackles because they're actually good at doing tackles? You need a person who can turn it into information. And I felt this on more than one occasion, talking to people at United. Not this current United set-up,

But a couple of years ago, I was just like, hang on, what? You know, five years ago, I asked Ed Woodward, I said to him, why have United, a club with the highest wage bill in the league, fallen so far behind Liverpool and City? And he replied, recruitment. It's not everything, but it's pretty close. You have to get it right and we haven't.

We got it in particular not right five or six years ago, but I want to try and explain how it involved. We've changed the recruitment department so it doesn't look anything like it was in 2014. We've invested a lot. We're confident that we have a disciplined process that works. That's partly evidenced by what happened in the summer, but we need to be judged over a period of time.

We've put a big investment into a software system we have. It's a bespoke system. It's not off the shelf. It's called TrackerMan, and that started 14 years ago. And then I said to him, it's not hackable, is it? Because some major football clubs in the northwest of England were hacking into the software of rival clubs. And he said, we've gone through it with really good cyber experts. We've added every single piece of bought data, Yscout, Opta, to our system. The data can be manipulated in clever ways.

We've added scouts increasing from 12 to 60, including Academy scouts for greater breadth and depth.

That allows us to act quicker when someone pops up. We should have a track of a record of watching a player at 17s or 23. We should have a richness in those report. We looked at the size of our data and video analysis teams, the PhD types who spend a lot of time inside. We realised we needed to invest there and we've increased that by three or four times. We've taken the chief scout role and evolved that.

We weren't set up for it. I'll never forget David Moyes getting everybody together, the scouts, analysts and chief scouts in a room and asking why they couldn't recommend a single player to him. That was not a good meeting. We feel the process is more robust now. Now that was five years ago. It clearly wasn't robust, was it? So you talk to the data analysis at other football clubs.

and they all say the most successful clubs using data, it's not necessarily how much data you have or how many programs you're feeding into it because you can buy subscriptions to a lot of these private companies and plug them all in. It's are they servicing a consistent plan? And this is the recruitment thing. The data can help you identify players you want to recruit. You need to be able to plug into the machine. These are the players we're looking for and we want to look for this over a long stretch of time.

So the problem with that Woodward quote is if you look at the last five years of Manchester United's recruitment, what is the consistent recruitment plan? They haven't listened to the data, have they? As Critch points out in his piece, they panic at times and they go for who's available, agents' proposals. Horribly, horribly undermines the use of data. And you look at a football club like Brighton, they know what they're doing in terms of what they're plugging into the machines. They have got less pressure as well, haven't they, Brighton?

I mean, Brighton have got a whole access to, as Chris puts in his piece, the gambling databases that Tony Bloom has organised. And there's more. They can take a chance on a player. But equally, they do get deals done that United could have got done if they'd had the wherewithal and the kind of aggression for it. And you want a good evidence of how data can't do everything. Brighton aren't very good at finding your defenders. Look at the Brighton first team.

They're not getting defenders. They're not even plugging in defenders into their data department because Brighton's setup is you buy them cheap, you flip them. And right now, most of the players that are going for a premium are attacking players. So Brighton aren't

trying to look for centre-backs with the same verb they're trying to look for wingers and strikers because those players are going more. Nottingham Forest, okay, they churned a lot, a lot. Oh boy, did they. They churned a lot and they made a lot of silly mistakes in there, whatever they're doing, but they've now evened out and they have a very clear idea of what they want to do. You look at Bournemouth, Bournemouth's use of data is creating this team that presses very, very, very, very high and they have

Just legs in there. Bournemouth's a good example of providing exactly what the particular type of manager they're appointing needs as well. He's a brilliant manager. Exactly. And he's got a brilliant sports background. And then you look at the last five years of instability at Manchester United and problems with recruitment, and it suggests that even if United had the data that was as good as Liverpool right now, they probably don't necessarily have the same set-up and ABC decision-making to come up with the same...

and results that Liverpool do. There was a very, very good piece, a very good interview with some of Liverpool's recruitment team, where they just revealed there is a section in Liverpool's data department where they have players who are good but won't be good for this Liverpool setup. So you mentioned Brighton, and I think Laurie makes a good point about pressure. So United identified Caicedo, for example, from Ecuador. Mm-hmm.

And it is a very different jump going from Ecuador to Manchester United rather than going to Brighton where the pressure is lower. And United have tried at several points to get in at younger and failed. Donny van der Beek, ask him about Donny, Donny, ask him about Donny. Why aren't you asking him about Donny? He couldn't hack it as a Manchester United player.

Caicedo went to Brighton where the pressure is a lot, lot, lot less. Caicedo had to go out on loan as well, which is a thing a lot of people forget too. You go to Man United and you smile and you sign and your social media goes through the roof and you have two bad games. You're getting absolutely slaughtered on a global scale. Your partner's getting pernicious abuse. It takes a certain type of person who can deal with that and it's unfortunate, but that is also the reality of it.

smaller, more nimble clubs, they've definitely used data better than Manchester United. I hope that Jim Ratcliffe is right. I hope that the use of data, but then the last movement in that department was a departure. One of the senior analysts moving to Bichitkas. It's not just about recruitment though, is it, Critch?

No, exactly. It's not just about recruitment. And I think when we talk about data, people talk about signings because it's the area where people, it can make the most impact and you see it on the pitch. And that's been the criticism that's been leveled at United over the last few years in terms of the recruitment. But it's not just that, it's wider than that. It

At clubs like Brighton, at Brentford, at Liverpool, at City, it feeds into absolutely everything else that goes on in the club, all those other departments. And I think that was also one of the key criticisms that really came across to me within this piece is that because United have been started at this so late, they've had to focus on recruitment more so than other departments. So if you think that data's not... You can't see the impact that data's making in recruitment, it's not really making that much of an impact across the rest of the club because they're having to put everything into recruitment. And just think about...

how much of a difference could be made if it had been really integrated into, for example, the medical department last season when there was all those injuries and if they'd been able to prevent those injuries. Think about how it could go into...

performance and opposition analysis and just winning more games essentially right to get into the Champions League and sort the finances out so there's always a huge focus on what data can do for recruitment and there's absolutely no doubt that United can make huge strides within that and a lot of the work has gone into that so far so perhaps you'll start to see the benefit at some point but

it's the other areas of the club as well where it could come in, where it could work and it could have a huge benefit that people perhaps don't always pick up on and realise. Yeah, and they'd realise if they read your piece because it is extremely detailed, it's extremely interesting as well and I'm sure now people understand why that has been a very important topic for us to talk about on the podcast. We'll talk next week about how it might affect Manchester United's recruitment heading towards the summer as well because of

The stories and the speculation and the interest in targets has already begun there. We need to preview a football match which is taking place on Sunday. El Calamitaco. It was dubbed by one of my friends, considering this is two so-called big six sides who are currently locked in a battle for 13th place.

The thing is, Laurie, we reflected on this when you weren't with us last time. United have actually won six of the last eight building into this game. Spurs have lost five of the last eight. So in terms of a moment, there's one team who are suffering far more than the other. Yes, I'd love how the Arsenal FA Cup...

is that's a win right in this in this little sequence that counts listen I don't know what the data nerds would say about that victory on penalties yeah okay don't worry about it yeah even Spurs fans would accept we can class that as a victory absolutely it's just obviously the two defeats at home to Brighton at home to Crystal Palace were pretty dispiriting so you've got this kind of it's

It's not feast or famine, isn't it? It's kind of like eating well and starving maybe. But yeah, it's going to be a really fascinating game. I'm going down there. I'm really looking forward to it because it sort of feels like you've got two guys that have been questioned a lot. I mean, they've been kind of bracketed together, haven't they? It's like these two guys that are so dogmatic that they can't possibly change their ways.

slightly different in how they approach things you know Angie's high line or Ruben's sort of back three system I feel like the formation is so much more a part of what Ameren wants to put on the pitch like a high line can you can kind of tweak that maybe for one game and it'd be okay although Andrew

saying no absolutely not although I think he did do a little bit in a recent game so yeah fascinating to see how it goes Liverpool away yeah so I mean Villa were the one that I saw they were all over them weren't they from the get go it looked kind of kamikaze the way they were passing out from the back with the

players they've got at their disposal he might get a one or two back I'm not sure but you know he's obviously been massively hammering the injury issues people have been questioning whether it's his style of play that have led to these injuries that was the same kind of thing that Ericsson Haag faced last season so I just find all that kind of stuff really fascinating and hopefully a kind of fun chaotic football game breaks out well if the League Cup ties anything to go by that's exactly what we can expect yeah Andy as well I

They've not won at home in the Premier League since November, Spurs. They've won in the Cup twice, one being that League Cup tie against United, the other one, the League Cup tie against Liverpool, the first leg of the semi-final. I didn't realise their record was so bad there. I did. We think we're miserable going to Old Trafford. I did, because I went there a few weeks ago and Leicester City beat them. Yeah.

And I was speaking to loads of Tottenham fans and they were saying the injuries are really bad. It was quite interesting that one of the wins was against Elfsborg in the Europa League and their three goal scorers were all academy prospects. So those goals were scored quite late on. But the form is terrible. It's absolutely terrible. They're getting battered to

Liverpool put four past them. As you say, they got knocked out of the FA Cup by Villa. And when I saw that result on Sunday, I'm thinking, if this was Man United, it'd be kicking off even more. They're having an atrocious season and they're below Manchester United in the league. But if they win, they go above Manchester United. Everton are a little bit closer now after last night as well, aren't they? That game in hand. Yeah.

Tottenham came to Old Trafford early this season and looked like Brazil in 1970 and that's what worries me. Manchester United are not that good. The league table is not lying. These are two really poor teams and Tottenham have had far more... Their injuries this season have been like Manchester United's last season. There have been some good performances at their ground in recent years. Even for parts of that cup game, I know Ruben Amorim felt that there were passages of play that really impressed him.

but come on if Leicester City can beat them Manchester United have got to get a result there confident Critch? Well I was at the the League Cup game and weirdly I came out of that feeling like yeah I would be more confident coming into this game on the back of that even just because exactly what Laurie's saying actually it was so chaotic there was so much space to play in and Spurs give you that room that it almost feels suited to this United team at the moment erm

I think United are tied at the minute. They try to control games, but they're not quite up to it. And so they actually just revert to the methods that we saw last season where everything's very direct, everything's back to front. And that actually suits them more. And I just wonder whether that's going to be the avenue in which...

it's possible to get a result out of this. But you're looking at the table now. I mean, what is it? Is it two points off 16th? I don't know how we got into this mess, but there's suddenly a lot riding on Sunday and it feels like, yeah, it's a bit do or die, but I can see that just the nature of the game, the flow of the game really actually suit United and

For that reason, I've gone into it with a little bit more confidence than usual. Yeah, next three league games, Spurs, Ipswich, Everton, all teams around Manchester United. They're not quite relegation six-pointers, but they may be sort of lower, well, no, upper top, hang on, upper lower half six-pointers. Is that where we are? The upper lower half? The heady heights. Forgive me.

You think that's complicated to say? Let's work out where Patrick Dorgue is going to play. We had so many comments about this, Carl. So me starting the last podcast with it, which maybe was a bit giddy, I suppose, on reflection, considering United had won the game and it wasn't really the biggest of issues. But it felt like a big issue because we had so many comments before the last podcast and we've had so many comments since about an athletic writer who wrote about Patrick Dorgue playing predominantly on the right for Lecce and then was surprised when he did it for Manchester United. Yeah.

Yeah, but if you finish reading the piece, you'll find a big, big graphic. Here's where Dogu would fit in best for Manchester United. And where has he stood? The left. Come on.

Get past the third paragraph. How do you know where he's best for United? Is this you or is this our data team? Data. This is me, this is data, this is people I've talked to who've watched Dorgut, Feleche, and also people who watch Manchester United. Like, come on. Do you think Ruben Amarin was having a... I've heard a pop at you there with the old Wisecout comment in the post-match press conference. I don't think I've seen... I've been in enough press conferences for Amarin to know my name yet. So I think I'm... Never know. I think I'm just...

Skulking at the back, yeah, yeah. Skulking at the back. Well, listen, maybe he'll read it to the end and maybe he'll switch him over to the left for the next game. People were fixated on the result. Yes, Manchester United won the game. And let me be very clear, I like it when Manchester United win football games. I get very annoyed when Manchester United don't win football games. Sometimes you get annoyed when they win football games as well. Okay, so I get annoyed when Manchester United win football games in a non-convincing manner because it makes me worry that they're not going to win the next football game.

And if you are beating a team that's going to get relegated with a goal that very clearly is offside... It wasn't offside. The linesman didn't put his flag up. You spend the first half just not really moving the ball with any pace or intent, I'm going to get annoyed.

if Amrin puts Dogu at right wing back on Sunday that is at his discretion and that man that man has forgotten more about football than I will ever learn about football he's a far better football player a far better football manager and far better in press conferences with a microphone in his mouth than I am but I just think so do you think he'll start at right wing back then? I don't know

I am mentally preparing myself for that. I'm sure our listeners are preparing their fingers for that as well. And I'm preparing myself for it on the next podcast. We'll see where Patrick Dorgue ends up. I promise I won't start the next pod on it, especially if Manchester United win. But let's leave it there. That has been a bumper episode of...

hasn't it just, of Talk of the Devils. Critch, thank you for coming on, mate. Thank you for helping with those two very important but complicated topics to explain. I hope people listening along now are more informed about the situation at United. In fact, we had...

a section on Louis Saha, including hearing from the great man lined up for this episode, which we'll bring to you next week because Kyle's been in conversation with him. But yeah, we will speak to you after Spurs, whatever happens. There should be chaos, but then Manchester United...

embracing that still so let's see what it brings and just one more thing before we go as well we want to tell you about the Connections Sport Edition which is a new game for sports fans from The Athletic it's basically a daily dose of trivia so it's satisfying to try and solve and I can tell you that it is very very addictive as well you can play now at theathletic.com forward slash

connections. Right, if you want to get in touch with the podcast, you can do that. Devilspod at theathletic.com. But thank you to Laurie, thank you to Carl, and thank you for listening along as well. We'll speak to you on the next one. Take care. Bye-bye. The Athletic FC Podcast Network.