Shownotes Transcript
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This is Joseph Stalin giving a speech to Soviet citizens. It's July 3rd, 1941. In the months before this speech, Hitler had lined up thousands of troops alongside the Soviet border for some military exercises.
Turns out they weren't just exercises. They were cover for a surprise attack on the Soviet Union. The invasion was called Operation Barbarossa. It was brutal. It marked the beginning of the Soviets' four-year-long entanglement in World War II.
So, great news, the Nazis lost. I don't know if you heard. But the Soviet death toll in World War II was staggering. 25 million Soviet soldiers and civilians were lost. Stalin hadn't seen it coming. Operation Barbarossa had caught him totally by surprise, and getting caught unawares was utterly humiliating. His intelligence had failed him.
The embarrassment of Operation Barbarossa would plant a seed of paranoia amongst the Soviets and decades later land them on an inevitable crash course with NATO nuclear exercise Able Archer 83.
If you go to therapy, as most of us probably should, especially if you're anything like Stalin, you'll recognize that this German sneak attack qualifies as a traumatic event. You think you know someone until they turn on you and ravage your homeland. Textbook trauma. Trauma that, if left unchecked, could cause the Soviet Union to accuse the West of treachery every time they did a military exercise, even though it's really just an exercise, but you're too scared to accept that because of your traumatic history with Germany, who is totally a cheater.
But no, Soviet leaders, to my knowledge at least, didn't go to therapy. Maybe their insurance didn't cover it. I don't know. Instead, they stole the sneak attack move for themselves. They began to use military exercises as a cover for invasion. It's how they invaded Czechoslovakia in the 60s. And the Russians would go on to do the same thing in Crimea, Georgia, and even Ukraine in 2022. And they figured, if it's something we would do, then of course the Americans will do it too.
You'd think the Americans would be all, "Hey, baby, I'm not that guy. I know your last squeeze did you wrong, but it's different between us." But instead, America was all, "They are the focus of evil in the modern world." So let's just say, when it comes to military exercises, the Soviets didn't process their trauma. They didn't have healing. They've got trust issues, and can you blame them? Now fast forward to the fall of '83, which as we all know, was a totally crazy year.
Like I said, crazy year. I mean, who knew Welters could dance like that?
Anyway, NATO is now preparing to start a massive military exercise culminating in Able Archer 83, a rehearsal for nuclear war. What could go wrong?
I'm Ed Helms and this is Snafu, a podcast about history's greatest screw-ups. On season one, we're telling you the story of a snafu that is gigantic, terrifying, and absurd. It's called Able Archer 83, the 1983 NATO military exercise that may have almost triggered a real nuclear war.
In this episode, we get to it. The real deal, the big shebang, Abel Archer itself. NATO practices a nuclear war, the Soviets reach their breaking point, and one man is faced with a cataclysmic decision. We practiced who to shoot, when to shoot. That was our job, was to practice going to war.
This is Brian Regal. He was a Cold War tank driver and a former participant in NATO's massive annual military war game, Autumn Forge, which can best be described as NATO's dress rehearsal for World War III. And it would all end with little ol' Able Archer 83. "It was all a coordinated effort. It's like, you know, the most elaborate, large-scale production of West Side Story ever."
Like West Side Story, Autumn Forge has two teams. But instead of the Sharks and the Jets, fighting over a girl named Maria. Sorry, I just, I love West Side Story. Anyway, instead of the Sharks and the Jets, Autumn Forge has Blue and Orange.
Blue team is NATO, and orange? The Soviets. And just like a play, Autumn Forge has a script. The script has different stages — or acts, if you will — as the drama of a fake war plot unfolds. And let me be clear: NATO is very serious about rehearsing this play. Opening day is tomorrow. The actors are in full makeup and gas masks. I'm talking tens of thousands of military men actively playing pretend war in Western Germany.
They're driving around in real tanks, surveilling in real airplanes, setting up fake supply lines and fake medical evacuations because, Brian says, it's essential that the whole thing feels realistic so that NATO can find the wrinkles in their war plan and fix it. Because next time, it might not be a rehearsal. It wasn't a question of would it happen? It was a question of when was it going to happen?
We were preparing to fight Armageddon. That's what we were told. That's what we believed. You know, that's what we trained for. We were training to fight the end of the world. The problem with Autumn Forge's realism, of course, is that each year the Soviets watched, becoming more and more fearful. They wondered, is this one an exercise? Or is this the year when the exercise turns into a surprise attack? ♪
So in 1983, like every other year before, the Soviets took their seats in the front row of NATO's grand production of World War III. And this year, they were in for one hell of a show.
Yeah, so they even made a fake newscast about it, which might seem really bizarre. But it just goes to show you how committed they were in producing this thing. They really wanted it to feel real.
Act 1: Autumn Forge. Orange invades West Germany. Of course, the Soviets are the aggressors in our little war scenario here. I mean, they are the evil empire after all. And then, Blue approaches the Iron Curtain to try to hold off the aggressors.
Yes, the invasion isn't real. But there are real NATO tanks and very real guns marching right up to Soviet territory here. And the Soviets are watching.
The plot continues. Blue struggles against the might of the Orange forces. The Orange are and have been making penetration against the Blue forces. NATO's going to need some backup, which means now it's time for Act Two. 16,000 American troops board planes in the United States, fly over, and are dropped right into the Autumn Forge Theater. These GIs have flown 12 hours from Fort Hood, Texas, to take part in the multinational maneuvers.
Now, this phase of the exercise happened every year, but this year, NATO would make a change. A change that would add just a dash of paranoia to what was already a recipe for disaster. Over the course of eight days, all these 16,000 troops were flown in under total radio silence.
This isn't the kind of silence you get at a, like, a convention for mimes. I don't know. No, this is radio silence, which is what the military does when it's trying to avoid enemy surveillance. And it made the Soviets wonder, what are they trying to hide? Meanwhile, in the real world, the United States would make a dramatic move, and the Soviets believed their worst fears were being realized.
Interrupt our regularly scheduled program to bring you an NBC News report. Good afternoon, everyone. I'm Tom Brokaw, NBC News in New York. And here is the latest situation as we now know it on the island of Grenada. It has been invaded by a multinational force. The bulk of that force, about 1,800 American troops. On October 23rd, 1983, the United States invaded the small island nation of Grenada, a tiny Caribbean island, but an important Soviet ally.
Grenada had been ruled by a communist government for years. It was going through a violent power struggle when the United States invaded. Reagan claimed he was just trying to help, restore democracy. But even U.S. allies condemned the invasion, and the Soviets believed it was proof of just how aggressive America could be. Meanwhile, the Autumn Forge script continued to escalate. Orange attacks Blue's supply lines. Blue retaliates. Orange uses chemical weapons. Not cool, guys.
The invasion continues. And all of a sudden, according to the script, there's nothing left to do but start launching nuclear missiles. And that's what brings us to Act 3, Able Archer.
You may wonder, like I did, where the name Abel Archer comes from. I'm so glad you asked. I actually don't have an answer for you on that one, but don't worry, I have something better, because during our research we discovered that while there is no known source for the name Abel Archer, there does exist a porn actor named Abel Archer who stars in skin flicks such as Reality Dudes and The Balls of Wall Street. Any of you girls order a large with extra cream?
This is true. And yeah, apparently he didn't even know about the war game. He just came up with it all on his own. Anyway... It was a week just like every other week. This is Gene Gay, a participant in Able Archer 83. NATO headquarters is located in a village called Mons, Belgium. Mons Town Center looked like every classic European city. All cobblestone and Gothic architecture.
But a few miles out, there's NATO's military headquarters. Stately, square, modern. That's where Gene and his colleagues are as Act III, Able Archer, kicks off in early November. The whole purpose of Able Archer was the emphasis on the practice of the nuclear weapons release procedures. Here's Colonel Spike Callender, another vet who was also involved in Able Archer that year.
Now, a few different NATO countries had nukes and they didn't need permission from their pals to use them. But the whole idea of NATO is that if the Soviets invaded one member, all NATO countries would coordinate on a nuclear defense. You ever hear the phrase big ships turn slowly? In 1983, there were 16 NATO member nations, each with their own languages and protocols.
But when the fate of the world hangs in the balance, NATO needed to be able to turn that big ship fast. The whole idea was, if you ever had to do it, you didn't want to do it for the first time. Here's how the whole thing is supposed to go down. They force things to happen to make you react to it as if it was the real-world situation.
The planners came up with an escalating war scenario, and the players are given a challenge. As the scenario escalates, when will you step in and recommend the use of nuclear weapons? Which nuclear weapons should we use? How many? And where? The men reference their binders of war plans, come up with a strategy, and rehearse the approval process for launching nukes.
When you had reached a point where, yes, the president or the prime minister agreed that these weapons were required and then would give the, in effect, the official release to it. During the war game, once our pretend president approves the fictional nuclear launch, the Able Archer communications ricochet back down the chain of command, finally reaching the folks who launch the fake nukes.
Which is exactly what it's like in the movies: two men sitting at opposite ends of a nuclear control room, confirming the codes and simultaneously turning the launch keys. Now, Able Archer, compared to the rest of Autumn Forge, is extremely pared down. No more helicopters and tanks, just men in a bunker with phones. But even though there are fewer players and the stage is largely empty, this is where the stakes are highest.
I guess that's the thing about nuclear wars. When it gets to that point, all the thousands of troops and tanks and infrastructure just don't matter. It all comes down to a few people in a room letting the nukes do all the work. And this year, the Able Archer players had a few new weapons on their nuclear menu: the Pershing IIs and the ground cruise missiles, the nukes that were scheduled for installation imminently, the nukes that could obliterate Moscow in seven minutes.
Now, it's important to say that even though Gene was practicing nuclear war with the new Euromissiles, they had not yet been installed in Western Europe. That deployment date was still a couple of weeks away, but the Soviets saw deception everywhere. And as Abel Archer kicked off, they feared those missiles may already be in place.
So, the first week of November 1983, a few miles outside the lovely town of Mons, Belgium, Jean, Spike, and their colleagues filed into a bunker carrying binders full of nuclear plans to hear their Able Archer War Game Challenge. Earlier this year, communist hardliners in Moscow took over the Kremlin. Since then, the group has expanded their influence in Eastern Europe and the Middle East. Now, they have officially invaded Western Europe.
So that was the kickoff and that was my work as I started out that week. Which brings us to November 4th, 1983. The bunker deep inside NATO headquarters in Belgium is buzzing to life. The communications machines are switched on.
The lines tested. "Exercise, exercise, exercise. Testing communications, over." And the Able Archer planners begin performing the war game script over the airwaves. The script's plot is getting more and more dire. Remember, they're trying to lead the Able Archer players towards a fake nuclear war, so the planners keep escalating the narrative. "Exercise, exercise, exercise. Orange has invaded Germany, over."
and relaying all this drama on NATO's secure communications line. But of course they had company. The Soviets had picked up the signal. Now all this time, the communications are going backwards and forwards, being listened into by the Soviets, who knew this was an intended exercise. Here's historian Taylor Downing. And each signal was begun with the sort of three words, exercise, exercise, exercise. Exercise, exercise, exercise.
But the Soviet analyzers who were analyzing the radio signals that are being picked up are starting at this point to get really quite anxious. And they're now starting to think, is this actually a real NATO exercise? Is this genuine? Or is it what they feared was, the Russian word is "maskarevka," deception. Is all this a deception to delude us to the fact that NATO is actually amassing its resources to prepare a nuclear assault?
Now, as you and I both know, NATO is absolutely not planning a nuclear assault upon the Soviet Union. They want to play the war game, learn their lessons, then go catch Flashdance or risky business. But the Soviets don't know that. All they know is that under Operation Ryan, intelligence from Soviet spies seems to keep supporting their assumption that the West is definitely planning a nuclear attack.
Also, this year, strangely, Autumn Ford's troops flew in under total radio silence and the U.S. just invaded Grenada. And now what they're overhearing from the Able Archer war game is feeling kind of intense. So the Soviets were left wondering, what is that Wiley Reagan really up to? Well, actually, I would fucking love to tell you what Reagan was up to on November 4th.
I know, because we checked the presidential photo archives. While the Soviets were imagining Ronald Reagan sitting in the Oval Office with a maniacal grin on his face and nuclear plans spread across the Resolute Desk, he was actually, quite literally, feeding acorns to squirrels on the White House lawn. "Here you go, little guy. Here's a big one for you. God damn it, you're cute."
You seem like you've got it all together up in your little tree. I've got a whole stash of these in my desk, little buddy, don't you worry. Adorable presidential respite? Or an insidious ruse? I'll say this for Reagan: the guy contains multitudes. Meanwhile in London, it becomes clear to one double agent that the KGB is convinced a nuclear war is imminent.
Here's our old pal Oleg Gordievsky. Remember, he's a Western spy pretending to be a loyal KGB spy who is pretending to be a Russian diplomat. I mean, the guy's a human nesting dog.
Anyway, it's November 5th, 1983. Gordievsky is sitting in the Soviet embassy in London when he receives a telegram from Moscow.
The Telegram tells the spies to keep close watch on the movements of British politicians. It says, "Since the U.S. and the U.K. are such close allies, surely the British will be involved in any sudden nuclear attack." And so it literally tells them to go hang out outside Prime Minister Maggie Thatcher's house and watch for any indication that the West has decided to attack. Because, the Telegram said, once that decision was made, the attack would be coming in seven to ten days.
I knew it was a dramatic moment. I knew Moscow was nervous.
For 25 years, Brightview Senior Living Associates have been committed to creating a vibrant culture and delivering exceptional services, making Brightview a great place to work and live. If you're looking for a rewarding opportunity to serve your local community and grow, we want you to join our team. Brightview Senior Living is growing and actively seeking vibrant associates to join our community teams, including directors, healthcare, activities, hospitality, and dining. Apply today at careers.brightviewseniorliving.com. Equal employment opportunities.
Text BVJOBS to 97211 to apply.
Hey, everybody. This is Jodi Sweetin from How Rude Tanneritos. And I have to tell you all about Hyundai's most electric EV lineup yet and how it will completely change the way you look at and feel about EVs, specifically Hyundai EVs. Now, let me tell you, as a Hyundai owner, I'm not a Hyundai owner.
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November 6th is quiet. It's Sunday, the Lord rests, and all that. Ronald and Nancy Reagan wake up at Camp David and head back to D.C. The night before, they stayed up late watching The Wicked Lady, starring Faye Dunaway. The Wicked Lady. I'd make a dangerous enemy. You make a dangerous partner. Reagan writes about it in his journal, naturally. It was embarrassing. Damn near pornographic.
He doesn't even write out the word "damn." He literally writes "D--in." Oh my god. What a dork. But while Reagan is writing Rotten Tomatoes reviews in his diary and feeding the squirrels, Andropov isn't having such a good time. The 7th/8th of November is the anniversary of the revolution in Russia back in 1917. And this was a big public holiday in the Soviet Union. There was always a big parade in Red Square.
But Yuri Andropov doesn't give a speech at the parade in Red Square as he ordinarily would. Instead, he lays in a hospital bed in a secure clinic 20 kilometers outside of Moscow, dying of kidney failure.
All the roads to it were very heavily guarded. Nobody could get into it, you know. It was far away from prying eyes of reporters or dissidents or anybody else. It was completely surrounded by a ring of KGB security. All the other members of the Politburo would come out in their limousines to visit him. And never leaving a drop-off side was the aide who carries the Cheget, the Soviet's version of the nuclear football.
It's named after a mountain in Russia. I assume because they don't play football. There was a feeling in Russia that if the West is going to attack, they'll probably attack while we're sort of off our guard, while we're relaxing, while we're on holiday.
Now, we don't know what happened in that hospital room, but here's what we do know. We know that Andropov was dragged into World War II as a young man when Operation Barbarossa traumatized the Soviet Union with a surprise attack under the ruse of military exercises. We know that he conceived of Operation Ryan to preempt a surprise nuclear attack from the West.
We know Russians believed a surprise attack would come during a holiday. And we know that now, during a holiday, Andropov was dying in a hospital bed, with nuclear codes within reach, all while NATO rehearsed a nuclear war. It's impossible to know what thoughts go through a person when they're in that physical state, but it's difficult to imagine that it didn't have some effect upon his mental outlook.
Oh, and one other thing. We also know that if the Soviet leaders believed an attack was imminent, they had a policy to launch a preemptive strike — to take out enemy weapons before they were even launched. One can only wonder if what was really going on in that hospital room on November 7th was the Soviet leadership preparing a nuclear attack of their own.
So obviously there was a lot of activity on the GRU side. This is Oleg Gordievsky again, back in London during Able Archer. He's talking about the GRU, the Soviet military's intelligence department. Now, this is a little technical, but it's important. So let me break it down for you.
The KGB, Oleg's employer, is the official intelligence organization for the Soviet Union. But the Soviet military had their own intelligence department called the GRU. It was their responsibility. It was their department which was responsible for the countermeasures and for monitoring what was happening in the NATO countries.
So, like, I don't know, concerns that NATO is about to launch a bunch of nukes? That would be the primary concern of the GRU, not necessarily the KGB.
The GRU also had a bunch of spies in London, also posing in the embassy as Russian diplomats. And Gordievsky remembers that during Able Archer '83, those GRU guys were looking pretty stressed out. "I remember that we were sitting in the loft of the embassy, and they were sitting in the basement. And they were sitting like mice day and night during the Able Archer exercise."
One reason Gordievsky could tell the GRU was busier than usual is because all of them were skipping the mandatory morning meetings with the Russian ambassador. In those days of Abel Archer, none of them, to the irritation of the ambassador, was present. For example, the head of the GRU station in London was a man by the name of Yezhov. People laughed at him because Yezhov means hedgehog, and he looked like a hedgehog.
Always with the sick burns, Gordo. He cracks me up. Anyway. He was sitting all the time with the papers. Gordievsky says it was unusual for the hedgehog to be head down buried in papers. It was clear to him that something was happening that was very important to the GRU.
Gordievsky also says that the GRU had a signal station in a building opposite the embassy across Kensington Palace Gardens. There, a GRU radio communicator would intercept signals like military communications. And he was coming from that building, crossing the road quickly, and in the embassy and down to the basement.
"Gordievsky watched this poor guy run back and forth all week long. And listen, when you're a top-secret GRU spy, you don't leave yourself vulnerable to being seen or followed. So whatever was happening, it must have been urgent."
And back in Belgium? Well, the temperature was going up there, too. The Warsaw Pact started to use chemical weapons. That's Taylor Downing again, talking about the Able Archer script. It's November 7th. And the planners decided they had no alternative but to respond by NATO forces using chemical weapons. Remember, we're talking fake chemical weapons here. Then on Monday, the 7th of November, in the script...
The Warsaw Pact are taking out various NATO command posts. For instance, the US Air Force Command Center at Ramstein in West Germany is in the script destroyed. Exercise, exercise, exercise. Orange is undeterred by Blue's use of chemical weapons. Orange has attacked Ramstein with chemical weapons. Blue, what's your move? The planners sitting around their tables and looking at the maps on the wall have to decide how to respond.
And at this point, they begin to think about a nuclear execution plan. And on Tuesday, the 8th of November, NATO decides that the only way it can respond is with a nuclear response. And the planners start working out how many megatons of bombs they need to request the use of, which key targets across the Soviet Union will be targeted.
Part of my role during this time was to integrate the new weapons into the NATO arsenal and operational plans. That'd be our man Gene. And then these new weapons included the ground-launched cruise missile, which were being deployed into NATO military bases across Europe, as well as the improved U.S. Army Pershing II missiles.
Over in London, some poor GRU bastard is listening closely to Abel Archer communications, prepared to sprint across Kensington Gardens to the Russian embassy and deliver messages to Soviet military intelligence. And then, within Abel Archer, Blue comes up with their next move: they are going to hit Orange with a nuclear strike.
And now they do something that NATO had never done before in this regular exercise. They change the codes that they're using. - Able Archer, Able Archer, Blue is requesting use of 25 nuclear missiles for use on orange targets. Please submit for presidential approval. - The Soviet guy listening must've been like, "They didn't say exercise, exercise, exercise. They didn't say it. They didn't say exercise."
And suddenly this change of code now is the final straw. The fact they're changing the codes, which they hadn't done before, clearly signified to the Soviets that this wasn't just a war game, wasn't just an exercise, but this was a real preparation for the launch of nuclear weapons.
And the KGB center, hearing these reports of NATO mobilizing to prepare to defend itself, starts sending out increasingly urgent messages to its residencies abroad to tell its agents to look for imminent signs of nuclear warfare. You must look for even the slightest hints that missiles are being readied.
Let's check back in with comrade Gordievsky. When it was a flash telegram, it was a super urgent telegram. On November 8th or 9th, he can't remember which, Oleg Gordievsky received a flash telegram from the KGB center. Saying the Americans are now in the middle of their exercise. So be ready for everything and watch thoroughly because we don't know what may happen next.
The Telegram claimed that American bases had been placed on high alert. Now, that was not true. American bases were not on high alert. They had just tightened up security in reaction to a recent bombing in Lebanon. But the KGB does not know this. The Telegram states that one explanation for this high alert is that, quote, the countdown to a nuclear first strike had begun under the cover of Abel Archer. They realized it was more panic and hysteria than ever.
Meanwhile, President Reagan and the First Lady pack their bags at the White House, preparing to leave D.C. for a little trip. "Well, in a few moments, as you know, Nancy and I will be aboard Marine One to begin the first leg of our trip to Japan and Korea." Naturally, their cameras pointed at him, so of course he can't leave without a little Soviet jab. "The Soviet shooting down of KAL 007, their continued military buildup in Asia, are grim reminders to us."
that we live in a dangerous world. I will reaffirm America's commitment to remain a reliable partner for peace and stability in the region and in the world. And that's the spirit of our trip." Moments later, Reagan boarded the helicopter, his aide a few paces behind him carrying the nuclear football. And what's Andropov supposed to make of all this? Was Reagan priming the public, reminding them how evil the Soviets are, before he cracked open that briefcase and blew them all to smithereens?
Now, a little while later, over in Belgium, the Able Archer players receive a pretend message that the pretend president has approved the use of pretend nuclear missiles.
Not real ones, guys. I know you get it by now. I'm just trying to be perfectly clear. And to be fair, the Soviets don't get it. They're on the Able Archer line and all they hear is... Able Archer, Able Archer, use of nuclear weapons is approved. And it's around this time that the Soviets start mobilizing their entire nuclear arsenal.
Soviet leaders had a fateful decision to make, and they needed to make it fast. If NATO is in fact launching nuclear weapons, the Soviets would need to launch their own urgently. If they didn't, their missiles could be taken out in the first wave of the American attack. But if they hit the button and they're wrong, then they've started a war and ended the world as we know it.
The whole crisis comes to a head really on the evening of Wednesday, the 9th of November, 1983. That night, in the middle of holiday celebrations across the Soviet Union, military officials received phone calls. Party time is over. They were needed back at work urgently.
"A lot of the Soviets who were mobilized in this nuclear operation, they remember that 24-hour shift that they were on very, very clearly as being the most anxious point of their career." The Soviet military went on a state of nuclear alert unlike anything before. And this? This is not a rehearsal, my friends. This was real.
Thousands of warheads were mobilized and prepared to launch nuclear weapons, that is, are sent to their battle stations. Each of these ICBMs has, well, the average was about six warheads. Each warhead was something like 40 times the destructive capability of a Hiroshima bomb. Commanders who manned the Soviets' nuclear missiles were told to stand by and await launch instructions that could be coming any time in the next few hours. The Soviet leadership
stayed up anxiously waiting for signs that the Americans had in fact launched an attack and prepared to retaliate in a full-scale nuclear assault upon Western Europe and North America. And they sent out a message effectively saying, you know, are these guys about to attack us? Are they about to launch nuclear weapons? The courier at first brought me the message.
This is Rainer Rupp again, aka Agent Topaz. He's in Brussels at his job in NATO where he's working undercover for the East German Stasi, a close partner of the KGB. It's November 9th, 1983, when he receives an urgent message from a Stasi courier. "High alert. The Russians are really scared. They want to know everything. NATO is preparing for war and so on."
"As far as Rainer Rupp is concerned, it's just another day in the office. There's absolutely nothing going on. No, no, no, we're not preparing any sort of assault at all. It's just another regular day at work at NATO headquarters." Rainer Rupp is instructed to respond urgently. He reaches into his pocket and takes out his spy calculator. It's pouring rain. Rainer runs to the designated phone booth. He's out of breath. He's paranoid. He looks over his shoulder. Has he been followed?
He puts two francs in the coin slot and dials the number. An elderly woman answers the phone. Reiner says the code phrase: "Hello, Grandma. I'd like to come visit you this weekend." There's a pause and then a click. Now he knows "Grandmother" is recording the call. He raises the calculator to the receiver, presses a button, and it makes a noise.
Encoded in the crackle is his urgent message. NATO is not preparing an attack. There are no plans for a secret surprise attack. Stand down. He hangs up the phone. No, we aren't. I mean, I don't see anything of that happening in NATO. Now, somewhere in East Germany, Stasi agents rush to the home of the elderly woman, retrieve the recording, and decode the bleepity-bloopity message that could save the entire world as we know it.
They'd send an urgent telegram back to the KGB in Moscow: "NATO is not preparing an attack." And when the KGB receives this message, the panic will all die down. Reiner Rupp will have single-handedly ended the nuclear scare, popped the champagne, the world is saved, right?
Of course not. It might well have just been another form of deception. And these supremely paranoid KGB officials are seeing Maska Rofka everywhere. You know, they're all out to get us. That Reiner Rupp had been taken over and been told to send this message. I mean, it sounds paranoid, but at the same time, like, how are you supposed to trust a spy? Of course, I was only one agent and they had their other views.
Sorry, Reiner, we know you tried your best. The KGB doesn't trust him. The one man who could solidly confirm that NATO was not preparing an attack on the Soviet Union, and even at this moment, where it seems like things could not get any worse, they do.
For 25 years, Brightview Senior Living Associates have been committed to creating a vibrant culture and delivering exceptional services, making Brightview a great place to work and live. If you're looking for a rewarding opportunity to serve your local community and grow, we want you to join our team. Brightview Senior Living is growing and actively seeking vibrant associates to join our community teams, including directors, healthcare, activities, hospitality, and dining. Apply today at careers.brightviewseniorliving.com. Equal employment opportunities.
Text BVJOBS to 97211 to apply. Hey, everybody. This is Jodi Sweetin from How Rude Tanneritos, and I have to tell you all about Hyundai's most electric EV lineup yet and how it will completely change the way you look at and feel about EVs, specifically Hyundai EVs. Now, let me tell you, as a Hyundai owner, I'm not a Hyundai owner.
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It was an extraordinarily tense time. This is John Perutz. Lieutenant General Leonard Perutz was my father, and he was in Germany while I was in high school when the events of the Soviet war scare took place.
John's father, Lieutenant General Leonard Perutz, was a high-ranking intelligence officer for the U.S. Air Force stationed in Germany. And it was during Exercise Able Archer when a memo from the NSA landed on Leonard Perutz's desk about some concerning Soviet military movements. "The first thing they noted were some heightened activities by some Soviet aircraft across the border in Germany."
The memo said that as of 1900 hours on November 2nd, Soviet fighter-bomber planes in East Germany were on high alert. By itself, it wasn't enough to be extremely alarming. But then a few days later, he got an update. And the picture got a lot scarier. We found out that some Soviet Air Force unit got approval to arm their aircraft without their jamming pods.
Now, the electronic jamming pods are a pretty standard piece of equipment on a military aircraft. They're actually an essential piece of equipment on a military aircraft. They can jam a radar, letting the flight go undetected by enemy surveillance. And there was speculation as to why would they be allowed to get ready to be on alert and get ready to fly without that. And there was speculation that, well, maybe they had a different payload than they were used to.
Let me do some military translating for you. The electronic jamming pods are heavy. Leonard Perutz's analysts told him, "The planes are experiencing weight issues. They're trying to rebalance the aircraft because the weight distribution is changing. It's our theory that they're taking off the jamming pods because whatever they're loading onto those planes is too heavy. And we think they're loading real nuclear weapons." "Interesting. Anomalous."
Something you should know about Leonard Perutz: He was a military man his whole life — procedures, chain of command. I mean, "Protocol" was practically his middle name. Actually, it was "Harry." But you know what I mean. So when he got that frightening report from his analysts, Leonard Perutz immediately called his superior, four-star General Billy Minter. "And he had to report to him, 'Hey, sir, there's some anomalies.'
The Soviet forces seem to have, the air forces have gone on a heightened alert. Heightened alert with bombs in tow. General Billy Minter asks Perutz what he thinks. He said, you know, Lenny, should we heighten our alert level? Should we put our air force on alert? In that moment, Leonard Perutz was completely unaware that his next move might determine the fate of humanity.
He had no clue that the Soviets had intercepted Able Archer radio communications, in which NATO ordered the pretend launch of 25 nuclear weapons upon Soviet targets, and that the Soviet leaders were awake that night waiting for those missiles to appear on their radar screens. All he saw was real Soviet bombs being loaded onto real Soviet planes, and he had a decision to make. Option 1. Put the Air Force on alert. Pass the intel up the chain of command.
But what would Reagan do with this information? Would he start a war? And what would the Soviets do if they saw us reacting? Option two, wait and watch. Risk getting it wrong. Risk the fate of the world. If he waited while the Soviets launched nuclear bombs from their planes, the world would be forever changed, possibly destroyed. And it would be all his fault. All right, my nerves are totally fried, so let's recap where we are in a fun way. Let's do it in song.
Well, the Soviets were paranoid that any military exercises might just be cover for an actual attack.
And so they had all of their spies looking for signs of an attack and basically were swimming in a stew of confirmation bias. And then NATO begins, Able Archer, it's a giant exercise and it fulfills all of the Soviets' worst nightmares.
They loaded up all their planes with bombs and all the leaders retreated to the bunkers. And now their fingers are hovering over the buttons and they're going to launch missiles at each other and start a huge nuclear war. And it's down to good old Leonard Perutz who has no idea what's actually going on but has to make a crazy decision.
Next week. Oh, no, we have to wait until next week. Yeah, sorry, everybody. This is how we did things before Netflix gave you bingeables. Next week on Snafu. And General Perutz makes a really critical decision at this time. He's not making this decision based on any knowledge about what's happening.
That decision made is attributed to out of misinformation. It's even described as out of ignorance. So there are two versions of this. There's the version the CIA initially put out, and then I FOIA'd the State Department and got its version. And its version is pretty interesting. Speak truth to power, even when it hurts.
Snafu is a production of iHeartRadio, Film Nation Entertainment and Pacific Electric Picture Company in association with Gilded Audio. Our lead producers are Sarah Joyner and Alyssa Martino. Our producer is Carl Nellis, associate producer Tori Smith. It's executive produced by me, Ed Helms, Milan Popelka, Mike Falbo, Andy Chug and Whitney Donaldson.
This episode was written by Sarah Joyner with additional writing from me, Elliot Kalin, and Whitney Donaldson. Our senior editor is Jeffrey Lewis. How upset are you about this fact? Olivia Canney is our production assistant. Our creative executive is Brett Harris. Additional research and fact-checking by Charles Richter. Engineering and technical direction by Nick Dooley. Original music and sound design by Dan Rosato. Additional editing from Ben Chugg.
Some archival audio from this episode originally appeared in Taylor Downing's fantastic film 1983, The Brink of Apocalypse. Thank you, Mr. Downing, for permission to use it. Special thanks to Allison Cohen and Matt Azenstat. ♪
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Text BVJOBS to 97211 to apply. This episode is brought to you by FX's The Old Man. The hit show returns starring Jeff Bridges and John Lithgow. The former CIA agent sets off on his most important mission to date, to recover his daughter after she's kidnapped. The stakes get higher and more secrets are uncovered. FX's The Old Man premieres September 12th on FX. Stream on Hulu.