Where Do The GOP Presidential Campaigns Go From Here?
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It's Live in the Bream with the host of Fox News Sunday, Shannon Bream. All right, folks, I don't want to give away my age, but I have known our next guest for a long time. Back in my days as a baby lawyer before I ever worked in news or television. And yet he still looks the same. He is an author, a legal commentator, one of my favorite guests on Fox News Sunday and wherever else we can get him. Horace Cooper, welcome to Live in the Bream.

Hey, it's great to be on. And I think you were seven and I was 10 when we first met.

Yes. But listen, Americans now have to make some difficult decisions because we are in an election year. And that's where I want to start. As we are chatting, I'm in New Hampshire and we're getting ready for the primary here on the GOP side. Democrats are doing sort of an unsanctioned thing. They've been fighting with the DNC. So DNC says this one's pretty much not going to count. The president is not on the ballot. That's a separate discussion we can get into. But let's talk about the GOP.

The gloves are really off. They always are with President Trump, but they really are now with him and with his former ambassador to the U.N., Nikki Haley. So what do you make of where we are? Chris Christie dropping out. Where does his 10 percent in New Hampshire go? Do they show up? What is your state of the race?

So I've been watching this. Obviously, I'm a fan of politics. As a man of the right, I am hopeful that we can get our ship of state, America, turned so that we can improve things. We don't have to go over the fact that we've been experiencing an economy that the president tells us is wonderful and the average American say that it's probably the worst in their lifetime.

As a consequence of that, it didn't surprise me that we had such a large number of people who stood up and said that they were prepared to challenge our president. Now, I came on your program and I said the cake was baked. It is highly likely that Donald J. Trump is going to be the next Republican nominee. The question is going to be, how nasty is it going to get

before we end up with that result. I can tell you, I don't endorse. I'm affiliated with an organization that's a nonprofit. And I look at these folks who embrace faith, freedom, and our American heritage. And I go, we've got a basket full of wonderful, um,

among those. But if you're asking me what's likely to happen, I'm not convinced that Donald Trump is going to win as well as he did in Iowa, but I predict that he is going to carry New Hampshire. And the real question is, can we get to South Carolina with this race still wide open, or will it be wrapping up? And that's going to be a function of nasty or nice.

Yeah, I mean, where did these campaigns go from here? We know that DeSantis campaign just didn't make the same investment in New Hampshire. They really wanted a good showing in Iowa for them coming out of their second place, especially when polls had showed that DeSantis had slipped out of second place. They feel like is a victory, but they know there's not good news for them in New Hampshire. So they've done some visits, but really they're moving their focus to South Carolina. So we expect President Trump is going to have another resounding win here, but we'll have to

see once Tuesday comes. New Hampshire, of course, is a place where undeclared voters or unaligned voters, that's the biggest group here. They're free to vote in either the Democrat or Republican primary. We know that Nikki Haley had significant Democrat and independent support that showed up for her in Iowa where you could switch your same day registration. Does that turn out

work for her here in New Hampshire in any substantive way? Or do you think independents say, well, it's over. Trump's going to be the guy. It's inevitable. Or does Nikki Haley convince those folks, yeah, come out and vote for me on Tuesday and maybe we get within striking distance?

Well, I kind of see it as drink your own poison. It is very likely that those independents and even some Democrats are going to give her a boost. Not enough, I predict, to win in New Hampshire, but enough to cause some serious heartburn. Oh, no, I don't mean about how close the race is, but I mean causing Republicans to

Later, to sour on her, you can't win the Republican nomination by being seen as the most attractive to the other team. That's a problem. And personally, I think the governor of New Hampshire and Haley's campaign manager ought to be talking up how robust

Their support is among Republicans and not leaving it as a possibility that they're getting support from non-Republicans. When you get further away from New Hampshire, it's going to be considered a very, very negative consequence that there were non-Republicans that boosted you.

Well, so where does everybody go from here if what is expected President Trump has another strong win? Haley, unless she scores an upset, which is unlikely, but nothing in politics is impossible. How long did she and Ron DeSantis hang on? His team says they're going to do Nevada. They're going to do South Carolina. They're going to go anywhere they can pick up delegates. And that that is the long game. You just keep picking up delegates.

But, you know, you run out of money. You run out of donors at some point. Where did those two campaigns that aren't named Trump go from New Hampshire?

Here's my view. The DeSantis campaign is on here as a backup. In the event that any of these trials go forward, in any event that any convictions occur, I am the most conservative candidate running. And typically, the more conservative you are in the Republican primary, the more likely you are to be selected. If there is a contest,

Between Haley and DeSantis.

It's my experience that watching the Republicans, the more conservative candidate is likely going to be favored. So when we leave New Hampshire, it's really going to be a question of where is it that there is a significant number of people who could make up this never Trump community? Can that get you a consistent 20 to 25 percent?

I'm actually doubting it as we get further away from New Hampshire. On the other hand, can the backup guy get you 20% to 25%?

I don't think so, but I think it at least lets you continue. You get to wake up tomorrow as the I am the backup plan. Now, Phil Graham once told us that the money, mother's milk of a campaign, was all of the support and financial contributions that he was able to access to. That would be President Phil Graham. Oh, no, he didn't succeed. And this is the issue.

I don't know that it is Donald Trump's money input at all that is giving him the advantage. It is really the party. A lot of the people I talk to when I'm in Texas, the county, the county that I live in, they went 78 percent for Donald Trump in 2020. That's the campaign that he didn't win it.

It's really going to be a challenge in that kind of constituency to be able to topple him at this point. We'll have more live in the bream in a moment. Hey, everyone. It's me, Drew Alfoalo, host of the comment section show. Come join me and one of my iconic special guests every week on the show as we dive into the dreaded comment sections of our tagged videos and take down the most terrible men on the Internet, period.

Somehow they won't go away no matter what I do, no matter how incredibly awful and mean I am to them. But I don't mind doing this work. In fact, if I'm being honest, I think it's God's work. So make sure y'all follow me on Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts for new episodes every Wednesday. So we move forward and the polls have told us for a year that people do not want a rematch of 2020. But that's probably what we're going to get, right?

So does that then open this third-party lane, whether it's Manchin, whether it is Larry Hogan, although he is now endorsed Nikki Haley? You know, there's chatter about her that no labels would be interested in her third-party run. I hear a lot of people that are not thrilled with the option they think of a rematch. I think back to Ross Perot, we're old enough to remember 18, 19% that he took. I

Do you think for all of his flirtation with the American people, Joe Manchin or anyone else will mount an actual serious third party run? No labels has gone to DOJ saying they're coordinated efforts to keep us off state ballots. We want you to investigate. It seems like there's a segment out there that would be interested in that option.

Well, we often get third party candidates, but I think we should look instead of at Roth Perot, we should look at 1980. Remember a guy by the name of John Anderson?

He was the third party candidate who was running against Jimmy Carter and Ronald Reagan. It would not surprise me if in 2024 we see something very close to that, maybe with the no labels party. And that is a growth, not quite a fringe.

that tried to claim that the candidates who are running are not sufficiently representative of the American people, and they try to take that space. In that particular case, Anderson got 6% of the vote, 6.5% of the vote. If somebody got 5% as an independent in 2024,

I don't know that it shapes the outcome of the race, but I think it would make it more likely that there would be a larger electoral victory for whoever the ultimate winner is. In that race, if I'm not mistaken...

Ronald Reagan, everybody remembers the 49 state sweep in 1984. But he won 44 states in 1980. We haven't seen that kind of margin in quite some time. And so if we had a no labels candidate,

I don't see a scenario where that's in the 20s or the 30s, but I do see a scenario where it could be close to 5% to 10% of the vote.

And the real question is, is America a center-right country or is America a center-left country? If America is a center-left country, then it's possible that the no-labels candidates steal enough from the right,

to give Joe Biden or his party a chance at a reelection. I don't think we're a center-left country. I think we're a center-right country. And so you could begin to see a fairly large victory, even if the actual popular number is pretty narrow.

You think as you're saying this, I'm thinking back and thinking to now, do you think we ever have another situation where somebody wins 48 states? And kind of like I think about the Supreme Court confirmations that, you know, even back in justices Ginsburg and Scalia's days, I mean, it was like 95 to one or whatever it was, people missing. But I mean, those votes were really close like that. It was a day that we think is gone for Supreme Court confirmations. Do you think the idea of a 48 state sweep is gone, too?

Yeah, I think we're a little bit too divided for that. But I think you could get into you could get to 40 again, especially with the no labels party in place. The real story, and that's why I really do want to just chat briefly about New Hampshire and Joe Biden. The real story of the latter part of the 2020s.

has been probably since about 2016, has been the decline in the real mainstreaming of the left.

the Democrats. Gallup just had their numbers out, and it is showing that the largest number of Americans today identify themselves as independents. But the real takeaway story is just how few the number of Americans are who think of themselves as Democrats. Now,

Now, I was not able to vote. I was just a little kid watching the news and watching, I guess it was Dan Rather. And there was Mr. Chancellor, I think, on NBC, maybe on ABC. I don't remember. But when Lenny Reagan won in 1980, a majority, more than 50 percent of Americans identified themselves as Democrats.

I mean, you could go all the way back to Eisenhower, and it was almost a two-to-one advantage between the Democrats and the Republicans in terms of ID.

We're now seeing the Democrats at the lowest level, under 27 percent in I.D. among Americans than we've seen them since the dawn of the 20th century. This is an amazing collapse and very little coverage is happening of it. And it is a collapse caused by

by what is really the extremism that the American people are watching. Our president chose not to run on the ballot in New Hampshire.

Essentially arguing that Iowa and New Hampshire are made up of Americans that are not representative of what is America. I'm not sure how you can go to a state and cast it off in that way. The party of the left is overwhelmingly, from my perspective, in sync with the attitudes of the both the left and the right coast or the West Coast and the East Coast.

Why was the race so close between Mr. Dean? What is his name? And our president, Joe Biden. Yes, Mr. Phillips. Why is the race so close? That ought to be the question. He's the standing president. They have a write-in campaign. They do.

It's going to be reported, but it's not going to get much attention. The truth of the matter is our president is a victim of the division in his party. It is veering way out of the mainstream. So that gives more space for

for no labels to come in, not to take away the oxygen from the right, but to take many of those remaining members of his party that really kind of feel they don't have a home anymore, that their party has been hijacked. In 1980, when running Reagan won,

a handsome victory, it was precisely because of Reagan Democrats, people who were Democrats who decided that they couldn't abide. Many of those people now call themselves Republicans. It was all the way to George W. Bush.

In 2004, we saw some of the highest numbers in almost 100 years in terms of identification as a Republican. Those numbers are down again, but they're in the upswing. According to Gallup, even with the majority of Americans, the largest number of Americans identifying as independents,

There are more people today identifying as Republican than Democrat. The real story that I think political scientists ought to be paying attention to is that emerging on the left because it no longer represents the mainstream of America. And if you keep doing that, you could create a scenario where you lose 40 states.

Well, we shall see how it pans out from New Hampshire and beyond. Horace Cooper, thank you very much for your analysis. I love picking your brain. Now, if people want to hear more from you, where can they find you?

So I've just wrenched off onto Twitter, the real Forrest Cooper. And of course, you know, I have two books out, how Trump is making Black America great again. And also, put y'all back in chains, how Biden's policies harm Blacks. Well, Horace, I think I know how you're going to vote. Now we will wait to see New Hampshire and the rest of the country. Forrest Cooper, thank you very much for joining us on Live in the Bream.

Oh, it's always a pleasure. Looking forward to coming on again soon.