8-16-24 McElroy & Cubelic in the Morning Hour 2: Betting Trends that will not disappoint; Stanford Steve talks CFB in 2024
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Welcome back to MacroCubic. Good morning, jocks94.5. 8 a.m. here, Friday, August 16th. Appreciate you being with us wherever you're coming to us from, whether that's on the streaming platform, jocksfm.com. Also appreciate those of you that are joining us up in Huntsville on Talk Radio 730 and 1039, The UMP. You can call and text the show to 058349450.

Or you can call the 800 hotline, 800-239-9569. We got a half hour of kind of freedom here. So if you want to call in, take it wherever you want to go. More than welcome to do that. I'm going to give you some betting trends here in a moment. We got Stanford Steve coming up here at 830. And we really haven't had a ton of opportunities to kind of go into. And I'm not like huge on the lines. Like placing bets in July is just reckless. Personally, I think it's reckless. There's too many unknowns.

There's too many things that could go wrong in camp. Allah, Darius Smith from Missouri, the defense of end hurting his knee, the tackle for Notre Dame. That's out for the season. The tackle for Notre Dame, Charles Jagasaw, Teddy Prohaska for Nebraska tackle out to running backs from Texas out running back from A&M Ruben Owens out. And there's, there's too many things that can go wrong in fall camp that can potentially alter the

What your team is. So while I'm all for, you know, having some fun, making some friendly wagers, I think that's always a good time. I think it helps. Like if you have no interest in Oklahoma state, but you place a $10 bet on them to win the, the big 12 at eight to one, that makes you an Oklahoma state fan for the next 12 weeks. That to me is kind of fun. Like I immediately have interest if you have a little action on it. So that is,

It's something I can totally get on board with. But at the same time, I just think it's just not worth getting into unless we're within eight days of camp being where they need to be. A couple scrimmages coming up this weekend. It's really the final tune-up for a lot of these teams. And then when we move forward after this week and it's kind of game planning mode, likelihood of injuries goes down tremendously. So I would say maybe wait another three or four days.

But if you want to do it now might be the time. We'll have Stanford Steve coming up here in 27 minutes to help us break it down. But I wanted to give you a couple trends, just a couple things that I came across that were really fascinating. It's stuff that you would just never think about, but it's pretty impressive. And it's not going to be exclusive to the SEC either. This is just stuff that has popped up throughout my offseason. And I just keep tabs of these things.

Whether it's brought up in an article or brought up elsewhere, I usually just make note. We will start with the Alabama Crimson Tide. Alabama hosts Georgia at home this year. Am I wrong? That is accurate, right? That is correct. I can confirm. We are for sure that Georgia will be traveling to Tuscaloosa. I've seen the graphic. Okay. If there's a graphic, it's real. As you know. If there's a graphic, it is real. Well...

Alabama, right now, is 20-7 against the spread in their last 27 games at home. They are 26-1 outright at home. Make sure you heard that right. 20-7 against the spread at home. 26-1 outright at home. Got it. Take the money line. Got it. I'm just saying, with what comes to Tuscaloosa this year, obviously, Missouri's in town.

Top 11 team. Georgia, number one team in the country. Comes to Tuscaloosa. Bunch of good opportunities with Alabama at home to make a potential wager. Well, odds are, three out of four, Alabama's going to fare pretty well in those settings. Not just against the spread, straight up. We'll keep it down south. South Carolina is 11-4 against the spread as a favorite team.

The last four years. Now, what's funny is when I think South Carolina, and I'm probably assuming that most people feel the same way I feel. Shane Beamer, South Carolina, they're really good in an underdog spoiler situation. That's the narrative, right? Really because of two games, but yes.

Well, two dating. Well, one is 15 years ago. That one doesn't really impact my, yeah, my thought process, but I just think Shane Beamer. And I think what they did at Clemson, for example, those two, yeah. Down to Tennessee, back to back in Tennessee. And I just think when they are an under, like they, I feel like they would be a team that off the top of my head would thrive in an underdog setting. That's not the case. They're actually significantly better than,

As a favorite. The problem is. South Carolina this year. Is expected to be favored just four times. So you might as well get it while you can get it. By starting on August 31st. Against Old Dominion. Because there's not many chances. To back that trend. The LSU Bayou Bengals. Are 20 and 7. On the over. Since Brian Kelly arrived in town. 20 and 7. On the over.

Since Brian Kelly arrived. Now, last year, everybody knows they averaged almost 46 points per game. Last year, everybody also knows that they allowed 28 points per game. Felt like more. More often than not, 75 is going to get you paid on the over. Based on those two things being added up. Obviously, you're going to be probably playing the over in the USC game. That stands to reason, yeah. I have not seen the number yet.

But if I were to bet, that number is going to be enormous. Probably same with Ole Miss? 92. Probably be the total there. Ole Miss will probably be the exact same, considering that last year that game was 55-49, I believe. Pretty good starting point for a possible over. I don't know if Vegas had it as a 1-0-4, but I think that one comfortably passed the over, probably middle of the second quarter. Tennessee...

has absolutely destroyed teams in the non-conference. They are 11-1 against the spread in their last 12 games in the non-conference. 11-1 against the spread in the non-conference are the Tennessee Volunteers. So you look at it, and while it's not very easy for me to get super fired up about a game against Tennessee Chattanooga,

Kent State doesn't move the needle. Not a lot. Utah's not going to do anything for you? Minimally. But NC State does. At least one. And NC State's week two. And I don't know exactly where that spread's going to fall. But if you look at it, that's going to be pretty interesting. That is one of the sneakiest games of the college football season. I really believe that. I think it's one of the sneakiest games that impacts football.

The college football season may be more than any other. And right now, Tennessee is a slight six and a half point favorite. When I see that six and a half, it makes me think NC State all day and twice on Saturday because they're just begging you, begging you to take Tennessee when they put that number in six and a half.

So in three weeks from now, you're thinking Tennessee will be 11-2 when it comes to 12-2. But what I'm saying is if they're 11-1 in the last 12 games in the non-conference, that's something to factor in when potentially making a play in that NC State game on September 7th. That game will be in Charlotte. It should be really interesting. But right now, man, it's really tough. We don't know what to expect from Tennessee. We don't know what to expect from Nico Iamaleava.

I mean, I feel pretty good about them, but I don't know for sure because I also know this. Tennessee is one of the worst teams in the country as an underdog. How about this? Tennessee, when they're favored, excellent, excellent. When they're underdogs, they are just 4-12 against the spread. And that's just against the spread. That's not outright. That's against the spread as a dog. Well, as of this moment, they're going to be an underdog at Oklahoma.

which not surprised by, I might add, especially considering how much Oklahoma is going to probably put into that game, how much it feels like Oklahoma's got to have it. I'm not surprised by them being a dog in that situation. They're probably going to be an underdog against Alabama. Bama right now, if the game were to kick tomorrow, it would be four and a half point favorite over Tennessee. And there'll be a heavy dog at Georgia. Nearly three touchdowns there. Yeah, you heard that right. Nearly three touchdowns.

And I think that's lean Georgia right now. They have definitely had Tennessee's number, but Damian, your thoughts on Tennessee's, I guess, struggles against the spread in the underdog role. Four and 12. Okay. Since 2020. So you tell me there's a trend. I'd say that's a trend. It is trend. And, you know, for, for as much as I do love Josh Eiffel offense, there have been moments where, you know,

When it's not clicking, it's not one of those, oh, they can kind of build it up. It's dead the entire game. And he's had some. And I think that for Tennessee, a lot of it, again, is just based off just the highfalutin offense that they have. It's one of those when you go back and some of the games that they should have dominated, like the South Carolina in 2022, like that pops in my head where you're just getting done

um, like you've, you've already beaten Alabama. You've gotten that monkey off your back. And then you hit the road as a heavy favorite against South Carolina and they hang 65 on you. Like it's one of those, uh,

Like what, what, anything that can go wrong absolutely went wrong. You know, Hendon Hooker gets hurt. Joe Milton has to go in and even go back last season with Joe Milton as a starting quarterback. And there are games where it's like, okay, this thing is rolling. They beat the brakes off of, you know, the Yukons of the world. The, I mean, Austin Peay gave him a game last season and it's like,

At some point, it's got to be able to just consistently jail well. But what comes with that offense is just high risk, high reward. Man, you are jumping on it. You're hedging the bandwagon so bad. Is he not, Bear? Have you met him? Yes. He will smoke a cigar after that game no matter what happens. And the Monday will be like, I told you. I told you my team was going to do this. I told you. What do they say? Smoke them if you got them. Yeah. I got one.

Vanderbilt. Oh, boy. Everybody wants some action. If you're going to watch a Vanderbilt game, you probably got to have a little action. Maybe. If you want it. Just for fun. Or just for the love of the game. Yeah. That, too. Vanderbilt is an atrocious 2-10 against the spread following a straight-up win. Ouch. So, if they pull a big win this year, say Vandy goes and handles their business significantly...

Against Alcorn State. Okay. Okay. Where they're a four touchdown favorite. There we go. Then you got to love. Throw the house at Georgia State. Georgia State the following week. You got to love. It's there. Georgia State. Ball State. Vandy will be a favorite as well. Okay. And then Texas comes to town. So no matter what the spread is. Tough sled. Baby, we going to Sizzler.

Tough sledding there. All right? I still have a few more for you guys. We'll take a quick break. Before we get a break, we'll get to Don Don. Don Don, what's going on, my friend? How are you? Hey, Greg. Good to see you the other night, my friend. Yes, sir. That was a good time.

Hey, listen, I need you to help me settle something with Damian, my buddy Damian. Me and him are going round and round about Auburn's new receivers. He gets mad at me for calling him the freeze forward, but that's okay. But I want to make a comparison. When Julio Jones committed to Alabama in his class, who always came in as a wide receiver? Because that was back in your playing days with Julio in that class.

BJ Scott was an athlete, but he started at wide receiver and then kind of transitioned to corner. I think Darius Hanks was in that class. All the classes kind of run, like Darius Hanks might've been 07. Julio was 08. Darius Hanks might've been 07. Maybe 08. I really don't know. I think he was 07. Marquise Mays was in there as well. I would say Mays was probably 07. So I think,

Julio, I would have to double check, but I don't remember exactly what wideouts. I will look it up right now. Yeah, the reason I'm asking, I'm just saying that Julio Jones and Beckham and everything, that's what started building y'all's dynasty and everything. And as an Auburn fan, I'm hoping that this is going to start building us in the summer. And I asked you the other day about the Penn State kid, and I know you covered him some games and everything. And I think...

I think he's kind of like the later of the room, him and the kid, the Lewis kid and the Jackson kid. The three transfers are basically the leaders helping these guys. But Justin Hoagerson had a great interview with Malcolm Simmons that you guys might want to listen to. And I think that kid is an unknown that's really going to do something for us, Greg. Yeah, I mean, he's got some top-end speed for sure. And I think there's a lot of...

A lot of upside there. I mean, we've seen Anthony Schwartz a couple years ago for Auburn and just how much fear he put in the opposing team. Problem is he was not a real consistent catcher of the football. But he was a guy that scared a lot of defensive coordinators. So, I mean, there's a lot of value even if he's not a significant role, a significant player. There's a lot of value still in having him

As a guy that is going to open things up and run some crease routes and clear things out to allow for guys to run underneath if he clears out the safeties over the top. Exactly. But on the comparison about Malcolm Simmons, do you remember a kid that played with Jared Stenum in the 17th year called Ryan Davis? Yeah, I remember him.

Yeah, that would be who I would compare Simmons to because I'm hearing through the grapevine with everything I keep up with that they're going to use Malcolm Simmons on those jet sweeps like that, like they used to use Ryan Davis for. That'll be great. I mean, hopefully that'll work out well for him. I mean, I don't know who's playing what role yet. I haven't heard any of that stuff yet.

I haven't even really tried to reach out to find that out. Cause I'm not sure even at this point, if they know for sure, but I'm sure they're trying everybody and everything cross train a bunch of dudes and, and assessing who can do what.

I think, and thank you for saying that we might be a sleeper this year. I don't really know. You don't know. But those first five home games to me are the key to the whole year. Oh, there's no denying that. I mean, starting off and getting off to a fast start. Appreciate the call, Don Don. Getting off to a fast start is enormous. And we know that Auburn's long been a momentum team. And if they get out to a hot start, that home field environment will be

It will strengthen, and that will only make them more difficult to play as the season goes along. The one thing that would scare me about Auburn this year is I think on paper they match up real well with a lot of teams. I think you should feel real confident about how things set up for Auburn. And I look at just, you know, let's just use we're already kind of in the gambling world. Let's lean in a little further. They'll be favored in each of the first four considerably. The tightest game on paper in the preseason would be that Cal game.

And they're a slight dog currently to Oklahoma. I mean, slight, slight, slight dog to Oklahoma. So you get to off to a five and oh start. Even if you get your teeth kicked in at Georgia, it's not the end of the world. You can go back feeling really good with a five and one start. And then, hey, the ball's on your racket. But your season's going to be defined with the road trip to Missouri and a road trip to Kentucky. I mean, that's where it's all... That's where it's going to be. I mean...

You beat Oklahoma? Great. That's awesome. You're 5-0. But you could very easily lose three in a row. And that would dismantle any and all momentum that was created in the first five weeks. Now, I love their chance against Vandy, naturally. I love the chance against ULM. I think the A&M game is a toss-up. It's at home, at least. But I could see them losing the A&M game, and that's a tough game, too. So all goodwill could be lost very quickly if you don't handle business well.

against Oklahoma, Missouri, and Kentucky. Those are the three that I think has a chance to really define what this season could be for Hugh Freeze in year number two. All right, when we come back, take a quick break, continue with some AP poll.

Or not AP poll. What am I doing? But gambling trends. I still have a few more that I wanted to tell you guys about that are really kind of interesting. And like I said, it's not so you can go out and just, you know, lay the mortgage on, you know, Florida and the non-conference. Like, I'm not suggesting that. But there are some very interesting SEC-centric trends that I think are interesting beyond that of trying to create an edge and making money. It's more assessing the team through the eyes of the experts in Vegas.

And that, to me, is fascinating. All right, when we come back, we'll go into a few more of those. And I have some that are national as well before Stanford TV joins us here in eight and a half minutes. Next on McElroy and Kubrick in the morning on Chalk 75. Catch up with all things McElroy and Kubrick in the morning by subscribing to the podcast. Mythically, he's grown. He's almost like a little bit bigger than...

A player, right? Like the myth of Bo Jackson. Like, rate, and download the show from the Jock Cup or wherever you get your podcasts. Welcome back. McElroy Cubic in the morning. Jock's 34.5. Stanford Steve coming up here in a couple minutes. Wanted to give you a couple more trends that are fascinating. Like I said, you don't have to be a gambler to absorb this information and find it interesting. Like, I...

Am I going to go out and play Liberty as an underdog every time they're a dog? No, but the fact that they're 12-3 as an underdog in the last 15 situations like that is pretty dang interesting. First of all, how often is Liberty an underdog? It doesn't happen often. It's not often. How about this? UNLV is 17-4 against the spread in non-conference games. Dang. 17-4. UNLV.

And they have a couple big opportunities, too. UNLV, they got Houston. I mean, they have a couple games that are pretty interesting. Barry Odom does a really good job. How about this one? Oregon State. Beavers. The Beavers. Oregon State's 25-5 against the spread at home. 25-5. That's an impressive stat. 25 out of 30. That's insane. That's an impressive stat. All right. That is insane. Really, really insane.

How about this one if you're interested in some week one action? West Virginia, 16-6 against the spread at home last four years. 16-6 at home last four years. Guess who they play week one at home? That'd be Penn State. Penn State, top eight team in the country coming in to West Virginia. It's a little old West Virginia. Three guys on their roster that have rushed for 750 last year.

Three guys all rushed for 750 plus. I see what you're doing. Only team in the country going there. And how many consecutive times did Michigan run it against Penn State en route to victory? Oh, 50, about 56 times or something like that. I think they ran it on the final 42 offensive snaps. That's insane. Just saying. There might be a recipe there. How about this one? Everyone's favorite lovable loser. Rutgers. Rutgers.

11-3 in the last 14 games against the non-con. Speaking of more week one action, Florida, the Gators, just 5-15 against the spread in non-conference action over the last five years. 5-15 against the spread, non-con action, last five years. Bet the house on Sanford. Got it. Wow, you love Sanford. You don't? I do. I mean, I'm a hatch guy. Hatch attack. You better believe it. Right now, Gators are about a three-point dog.

At home to the Miami Hurricanes. A couple more before, you know, we move on to Stanford Steve. This one is the least surprising thing you've ever heard. Iowa.

It's 42 and 20 on the under. The last 62 games. That is the lock. Of all the stats that you've given me, that's the one I'm like, yep, you can go ahead and now you can put the mortgage on that one. That was probably just last season. Can confirm. So, I mean, that's a lot. 42 and 20, not surprising. That's a pretty significant two to one advantage. I mean, you got 16% in advantage there. Yeah. This one might surprise you.

When I say Pittsburgh, would you describe them as an over team or an under team? I'd lean under. They feel like an under. They do feel like an under team, right? Right. You just think of like swirling winds that formerly known as Heinz Stadium, now Accenture Stadium or whatever the heck it is. Something like that. They're actually 33 and 16 on the over. Isn't that interesting? I would have never guessed that. Would never in a million years have guessed that Pittsburgh is 2-1 over to under.

Would never in a million years have guessed that. Found that absolutely fascinating. The problem with Pittsburgh is that they're also 0-6 against the spread in the last six games as a road underdog. So when you go 0-4, it's never good. Never good. I'll tell you what is good is the train. Train...

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Just a week away from the season getting underway. We have a lot to look forward to. We'll be previewing week zero all next week. So it is on us. Thought I was going to have to go to Dublin. Don't have to anymore. So pretty fired up about just chilling. There was a chance you were about to be on that guy? Not just chance. Oh, it was almost like set in stone. It was assigned. Oh, man. Oh, yeah.

Don't have to no more. Yes. Chilling. You'll be able to listen to the dulcet pipes of Joe Tess and Jesse Palmer on that one. Now, here we go. But I know another guy is going to be there. He's Stanford Steve. He joins us every week throughout the season. Thanks to our friends at Atlas Senior Living 34.

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Nothing, man. How are you doing? You getting fired up? Pretty fired up, yeah. I mean, my excitement's tempered. A week from today, I'll be jacked. But until then, there's still some work to be done. I feel a little unprepared for the season to be here. I weighed 229 this morning. I'm down four pounds. I have about 10 to go. I need to be under 220 before the season starts. I don't know how that's going to happen, but...

According to Dana White, all you got to do is just not eat. It's amazing how these things work. And I guess there's shots that can help you with that, too. So I'm debating those, you know, just dialing it up, whatever. Yeah, you're talking to the wrong guy if you're looking for clues on that stuff, Greg, just to be honest. So, you know, I got nothing for you there. Just trying to create an edge. That's all it is. Just trying to create an edge. I was going through some trends.

You always help us out with some handicapping. There's some stuff that's just fascinating to me. Like, for instance, the best coach against the spread since 2019 is Chris Kleiman. He's 40-21-2 against the spread since 2019. It's not surprising, though.

However, as the world now has changed beneath our feet, I think Kansas State was one of those teams that had a real advantage in the trenches against some of the teams they faced. That's not going to exist anymore. What you get with Utah, what you're going to get with Arizona, what you've had with Oklahoma State for the last, I don't know, 10 games, is teams morphing more in that direction. So when you look at the Big 12 and you try to size it up, is there a direction you think the league goes?

Wow, that's a great way to put it. On our game day call the other day, I was just saying, I believe the Big 12 is going to be the fans' favorite league because you're going to have way closer point spreads. When you look at the SEC, I think you could tier teams. Obviously, Georgia's up there, but the teams that were ranked,

And then, you know, the teams that aren't ranked in the Big Ten, I think it's even more so. I think you have your big name brands and just look at the poll. I think they nailed it. Like that, those tier of ranked teams in the Big Ten, I think there's a big drop off to the next group of teams. But in the Big 12,

You mentioned new teams coming in. It just seems so volatile. Like, you know, you have teams that have pride themselves on offense. You mentioned Kansas State, right? You know, what they've done with climbing coming from North Dakota State and what they've built themselves on. But then, like, I look at a team like Utah, and I'm reading about Utah, and Utah has been as fundamentally sound, you know, really want to pride themselves on the lines of scrimmage. See what they did in the portal, and then you see what you get Cam Rising back.

they love what they have on the perimeter. Is Utah going to sling it all over the field now? Like, that's the sense I get, that they're going to throw the ball a lot more than they ever have. They don't really have a true running back, which they've always had. You know, Coach Witt said that's going to be by committee. So that's like a fascinating thing to me. So the Big 12, to me, looks really, really wide open, you know,

With the new teams, I just feel like, you know, I saw West Virginia is going to play Arizona. That's a conference game. That's nuts to me. Like, I get everybody hates changing it, but, like, to see that in

and know that that's a conference game is going to be pretty eye-opening. So I find it, you know, the biggest, you mentioned, you know, having a little anxiety right now before. I'm just trying to put all these names I'm reading about to jersey numbers. And that's, I mean, I know you call them games, but the way guys love changing numbers, the idea of wearing zero now, I'm not a fan of. But just that, like trying to throw the video game on and just seeing it too,

I've tried to do just to be familiar so it won't be a shock that first time we see it.

Yeah, and to add insult to injury, I mean, first of all, what could go wrong when West Virginia goes to Tucson? I mean, it's just culturally both programs so aligned. It's going to be lovely. Stanford, by the way, on a brutal 4-15 against the spread skid at home, which is surprising given just how difficult a home field environment you guys have there on the farm. Looking at some other stuff here.

And look, there's a few win totals that I've found myself gravitating towards. I haven't necessarily made any plays yet, but a few that I'm really keeping my eye on. We'll start with Michigan. Open at nine and a half, down to eight and a half, kind of hovered at nine there for some. I don't know how on earth you can play the over, but some people continue to, and I just don't know why. So how are you assessing Michigan heading into this year?

Michigan, I feel like, is a big wild card. You know, when you look at what they've – everybody talks about what they lost, right? But what do they – I haven't heard anything about the guys that they've brought in. Obviously, they had a recruiting class where guys are going to come in.

And I'm sure we can get to that. But the impact freshman, I think, is a whole other conversation for teams that we see in that first-day people. But Michigan, the question is quarterback. You know, J.J. wasn't going to wow you with stats in, you know, five touchdown games and 300-yard games. And now you bring in a competition where it sounds like three guys are still in the mix. And you see Alex Orji as the biggest name.

with being on Bruce's, you know, freaks list. But they're going to have to throw the football. Like, as much as, you know, we talk about, say, a Steve Sarkeesian, you know, we have another year of tape on them, right? People are going to have tape on Michigan. And when I look at them, they're going to need to be better on offense.

And, you know, they lost their best two wide receivers, still got a stud at tight end, but that's not going to fear teams when he's your number one option. So Michigan, I look at the other, I do think Texas has their absolute hands full going to Michigan there week two. Just to contrast the styles, you talk to people at Texas about how they love

what they brought in on the defensive side, knowing they don't have to bring extra guys to bring pressure to the passer, but they relied on those two guys in the middle so much and they helped them. And I just think about them being on the road last year, like the ability to go on the road and know you're going to stop the run. That's,

That's a huge factor for teams. And I don't know if Texas is going to be able to do that. Michigan bring back position. So I look at that's a, that's a huge win total. That's a monster game. If they were able to win that, you've got to really think they might go over. But I don't, I don't see, I think Texas is going to struggle in that game, but pull it out. So I'm with you on Michigan in the under, I do not have them making the playoff this year. Yeah, I don't either. I just don't feel real confident. I think they might,

It wouldn't surprise me if they lost four games. I mean, I think it's possible. I think it's unlikely, but it's possible. Is there a win total that you just can't avoid right now? Like, to me, it's Rutgers. And I know that's just sicko mode. I don't care. No. Like, Rutgers is the biggest beneficiary to the abandoning of divisions in the Big Ten. Mm-hmm. And...

I look at it right now. They are favored in six games and a handful of those games in which their dogs are at home, like Washington at home. They're, they're a slight dog in that game at Maryland, slight dog at Nebraska, slight dog. Like I know that they're not going to run away from anybody because of the way they play. Yeah. But if they're sitting there,

At six wins, how can you possibly... The total is sitting there at six. How can you possibly not feel great about the over? Against the quarterback position. Again, a new face in a new place. Kallik Maness has shown flashes. But I go back to Rutgers. Seattle is always going to play to his strengths. I watched that Ohio State game last year. They...

They bled the clock. They wanted to stay in the game. You know, they were fighting, you know, for their lives. They had a great, like, 10-play drive going, and they throw a pick six right before the half, which is a complete dagger, where you lost all momentum. You had your stadium packed. So their margin for error is not large, and it's not big at all. But when you look at what you factor in, what they don't have to play

I think they do a good job of, you know, I think of teams like they go to USC. And, like, say USC goes to Michigan too. USC has always done a good job of dictating tempo and how the game is going to be played. It didn't work out because the defense was so bad. But, like, who dictates in Rutgers-USC?

You know, Lincoln does a great job with getting the ball to his guys, but Rutgers, for some reason, always makes you, you know, slow it down. And then you think about the pace of play this year, and every coach I talk to is worried about their depth. Their depth up front on the defensive line always seems to come up. Are teams going to adjust their play style because...

because of plays and number of plays in a game, knowing that the season is going to be a lot longer for the good teams. That's something I got to see these first couple weeks. You look at trends over and under. Everybody has an association with their team and whether they're an over and an under team, right? Yeah. And I think that's going to change this year because I honestly believe coaches have thought long and hard about assessing what they have on their roster, knowing what other teams have,

And everybody kind of being on the same page is not knowing what you have from a depth perspective. So that's a little – week zero is very, very interesting to watch what those trends come out to. When you think about – and if we visit with Stanford Steve, we'll put a bow on it this way –

Is there anything here in the preseason that you just ran to the window for that you were like, all right, whoa, whoa, I love that. Hadn't thought of that. Let's go. Is there anything? Before the injuries, I was on Texas under. I just, the idea of going week to week in the SEC is something, you know, I think I saw somebody ran a thing about the biggest stadiums, Texas and Oklahoma playing in the Big 12. It's not even close to what

to what they're running into in the SEC. I think the biggest stadium in the Big 12, not Texas, Oklahoma, or the Red River, obviously, because they play there. I think it was either Manhattan, Kansas, or Iowa State. And you just think Oklahoma coming off a Tennessee game and going to Auburn, that place is going to be juiced to the gills for them to come in knowing they've got some fresh meat coming in there. Now Oklahoma has a defense that they're going to rely on, and that's what you want.

when you go into those places, but you saw Oklahoma not be able to do it last year. Hadn't got the Texas win. A couple weeks later, went to Kansas and just couldn't do it.

Didn't have anything to rely on. The lack of identity on the offense, I think, caught up to them. But Texas is a team where I just feel like you're going to get – you're walking in everybody's team. You're going to get everybody's best shot. And 10-and-a-half, 10-and-2, you still probably can make the playoff if you do win double-digit games. I just feel like it's tougher than –

tougher than said deal with Texas. So I just think it's asking a lot coming into that conference and winning 11 games to go over. I like under on Texas. Love it. Very good stuff, Steve. Awesome. Always enjoy visiting with you, buddy. Look forward to having you back again this fall and hope you have a great start to the college football season next week in Dublin. I think we're on a show today together, by the way. Are you doing that live or is that in the can?

Uh, no, I'm, I'm, I'm prepping right after I get off the, off with you, buddy. You have three questions. What is there for prep? It's literally, it's like, I got to know what the questions are. All right. Do you want me to give them to you right now? All right. And I got to know if I'm going to be, you're going to take all the good stuff. So I got to have something good if I follow you. Oh yeah. You're dead. Like all the good stuff's already been spoken for.

Here's three questions. You go first and it's two minutes. It's nice to know that you're getting paid for this work today. Steve, what stands out to you most about the first preseason poll? That's the question you have? Are you kidding me? That's what you wanted to answer? You don't have that question? Oh, I do, but I have 37 other questions that I have to answer too. Unreal. That's why your pay scale is a lot higher than mine. Yeah, whatever. I'm not on game day.

Is it bad that I'd rather be in College Station week one than going to Dublin? Is it bad? Well, you're going to College Station week one. I know, but I'm more fired up for that. Yeah, but this is week zero. People are mad at me. Well, I mean, it's a long way to go before the season. We might have had that game assigned to us before somehow finding some mysterious exit.

Oh, okay. We were almost there with you, but I get what you're saying. It's all fun. It's super fun to do that game and whatnot. It's going to be awesome to watch, but it's a long way to go. Yeah, it is. I'm sure you won't be jet lagged, nor will you be hungover at all. No way. No way. You're a pro. You're a real pro. I don't have to get up early for the show. That's what's great. Well, that's what you think.

You guys, I've heard Coach Saban's going to want to have an extra production meeting at 6A local. So get ready. Make sure you bring your notes. Will do. All right. Stanford Steve. Talk to you in a bit, buddy. Look forward to it. You got it. Thanks, bud. All right. Stanford Steve joining us here on McElroy. Keep looking in the morning. Come back.

I'll tell you one or two more trends before we get to Kirk Bowles. Gives us an update what's going on at Texas camp here in 10 minutes. It's next on McElroy and Kubrick in the morning on JOC 74.5. Catch up with all things McElroy and Kubrick in the morning by subscribing to the podcast. Mythically, he's grown. He's almost like a little bit bigger than a player, right? Like the myth of Bo Jackson. Like, rate, and download the show from the JOC app or wherever you get your podcasts. McElroy and Kubrick in the morning, JOC 74.5. Still have a lot to get to before...

Thanks, Finish Up. The next hour, we're going to give you the most stable programs in the country as far as coaching turnover is concerned. Going to have Kirk Bowles join us here in seven minutes to help us break down what's gone down in Austin, Texas over the last few weeks. It's been tough camp so far, man. A couple injuries, significant injuries. Two running backs. Has that position really, really thin. So that is of concern. Before we get to Kirk,

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of those reliable trained units. Remember, if you have a problem with your electrical, plumbing, heater, air, just pick up the phone and call the Bear. It's 205-497-BEAR. That's 497-BEAR. A couple more trends before we get you out of here, before we get to Kirk Bowles here in just a minute, talk a little Texas. Everybody's hot on Virginia Tech this year. Understandable. I like Virginia Tech. I think they're a good team. I just don't know if I'm going as far as to say they're a 10-win team.

I think they caught fire at the end of the year last year. They changed their offense, thus changed their identity. It was the correct move. It was the correct change. But they have a ton of guys back, and I think a lot of teams in the ACC have spent an entire offseason figuring out a way to slow them down. Well, last year, things have worked out pretty well for them. It's pretty amazing when you can go 4-19 against the spread in your last 19 games, and

following up an outright win. Now, this is pretty wild. To win a game and not being able to tie performances together is a real, real issue. 4-19 against the spread in the last 19 games for Virginia Tech after an outright win. Maryland. Maryland's kind of a sneaky, trendy team this year. Like Rutgers, they're a team that doesn't have to play in the Big Ten East anymore.

Mike Loxley is still there. Talia Tungabailoa is not, but they have quality depth at quarterback because of the arrival of the transfer, MJ Morris, from NC State. They are 15-6 in non-conference games. That's pretty sporty in their last 21 to win 15 of them against the spread. That's pretty sporty. That's good. And then finally, finally, you like over in Louisiana Tech action, a little midweek action? Yeah.

31-15 on the over since 2019. Louisiana Tech, take the over pretty much every chance you get, including against Nickel State on August 31st. Kirk Bowles is next. This is McElroy and Cubelik in the morning. It's time for Bob's Dare to Compare. You get style. You get features. You get quality and thousands of dollars in savings.

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