Andy Staples, who covers college football for On3 Sports, tells McElroy & Cubelic why 5 SEC teams will make the Playoff & what's going to happen with the NCAA settlement
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McElroy and Kubelik in the morning starts now. All right, welcome back in. McElroy and Kubelik in the morning, 820 a.m. Monday, July 29th, right here on JOX 94.5. Appreciate you tuning in. Listen online, joxfm.com. Apps in your app store, iPhone, Android. You can download that for free. Get to Andy Staples here in just a moment.

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Why Missouri will or will not make the college football playoff this year? Where are you on Missouri? And give us the reasons you think that Eli Drinkwich could take his team to this year's college football playoff. So the reasons they could is that offense is going to be humming because Brady Cook is a very capable quarterback. Luther Burden is one of the best receivers in the country. The offensive line comes back mostly intact. And then they do add Caden Green from Oklahoma, uh,

I'm, you know, they got a couple of transfer running backs. They got Marcus Carroll from Georgia State. They got Noel from Appalachian State, who, you know, Cody Schrader gave them so much. But I think those guys that want to punch, they're going to be able to run the ball really well this year, too.

Why they might not make it is look at all they lost on defense. I mean, Darius Robinson, first-round edge guy. Tyron Hopper, tackling machine in the middle. Ennis Raikstra, Chris Avin's drain. NFL high-round draft pick corners.

That's a lot to lose, and you lost your defensive coordinator, Blake Baker, and you lost staff members who follow Blake Baker at LSU. So that's the tricky part is can they be as good defensively as they were last year? I don't think they have to be quite as good as they were, but I do think they're going to have to be pretty good because they're losing so much, and it's going to be quite a lot to overcome.

What about just the schedule? And I know a lot of people have pointed to, well, it's easy. It's manageable. Well, here's the problem with the schedule, Andy, is that it might be easy. It might be manageable, but they don't have a lot of margin for error. And if they're being measured against teams from the Big Ten that played a quality non-conference opponent or that have the same amount of losses in the loss column, but maybe a better win or two than what you've experienced, then

Then Missouri might be on the outside looking in because their schedule strength won't hold up. So when you look at the schedule, let's assume they lose to Bama. Let's say they go on and lose at A&M. Are they going to have enough meat on the bone for the playoff committee to put them in?

That's a great question, Greg. And it's something I'm wondering about because I don't know that we know this yet. Like I want the committee to reward the teams that played harder schedules. Like I want Texas or Michigan to get the benefit of the doubt for playing one another or for the team that won that game to be rewarded for playing that game. And the teams that don't schedule like that, I feel like they should be the ones that get punished because

for not playing those games. So the best non-conference game on Missouri's schedule is Boston College. We'll see with Bill O'Brien how good they are, but I would imagine we're talking about probably middle of the pack ACC team. That's not the kind of challenge you want. And you talk about the margin for error.

Missouri did get one of the better schedule draws in the SEC, but when you look at it, it's still not easy. It's still very hard. Let's say they lose to Alabama. That means if we're saying you're going to make it at 10-2, and I do think an SEC team at 10-2 is probably going to make it, probably. But let's say you do that. That means you have to win. You have to go 2-1 against Texas A&M, Auburn, and Oklahoma. That's not easy.

Not at all. Andy Staples of the On3 Sports Network with us. Kind of random just staying with the playoff because you said there's going to be some unknowns. When we enter November, how many teams realistically do you believe will be in the conversation vying for a playoff berth?

Well, because the Big 12 is going to be so competitive and their champion's definitely in, we don't know yet if they'll have an at-large team possibly in there. I mean, we could be talking about like 25 teams still being in the mix. And then we also don't know exactly how many group of five teams we're going to be talking about at that point because we don't know. Like there may be somebody who's just really good and there's a Sunbelt team that just runs away and is undefeated.

but probably more likely we're kind of parsing between one loss conference champs in those leagues. And so there's going to be a bunch of those teams that we're still talking about. So it might even be more than 25. There's no way it's going to be 25. Going into November? Yeah, they can realistically make the playoffs. I don't see it. I would love it if you're right.

If there's six teams within two games of the Big 12 lead, then they're all in it. Because remember, you don't have to finish first. You can finish second, make the championship game, win that, and you're in. How many teams do you think will ultimately get in from the Power 4 leagues? Say, for instance, three in the SEC, three in the Big 10. How many for each league do you think when we fast forward to the end?

I predicted five from the SEC because I did my post-spring top 25, and I had five SEC teams in my top 11. But I don't think that's a sure thing. I think the bounces of the ball between one Big Ten team and one SEC team could change that. But I think if there's going to be – I think the Big 12 probably only gets one. I think the ACC can get two depending on how things go.

I think it's possible the ACC has two 11-1 teams playing in the conference championship game and they both get in. But they're going to need somebody else besides Florida State to be really good. And maybe that's Miami. Maybe that's NC State. Maybe that's Clemson. But somebody needs to do that. Because I think if you're 11-1 against 10-2,

in the ACC, in the championship game, might just be the winner getting in. And in the Big Ten, I think you feel comfortable about three, but if you don't get the at-larges from the Big 12 or the ACC, then you're slipping into another Big Ten team.

Andy Staples of the On3 Sports Network joining us now on the Bioshock Hotline at Andy underscore Staples. Follow him on Twitter. Details from the House settlement and the NCAA are beginning to emerge. Boosters apparently going to be prohibited from entering into NIL deal with athletes.

Um, going to have to compare rates, similarly situated individuals with comparable NIL deals, which if it's not another college football player, not really sure how it could be comparable. Um, also, uh,

We're looking at NIL deals of 600 or more being approved by a clearinghouse, a word that was very popular when you and I played college football and a lot of folks haven't heard about in a while. How is this really going to work if this actually ends up being what's pushed through? I don't know if this is actually going to get through because it's still a bunch of competitors colluding to unilaterally put a wage cap on somebody.

You can't do that. It's illegal. And what they're saying is, oh, but the people are opting into the settlement, so they're agreeing to this. So by taking the money from the schools, the revenue-sharing money, they're agreeing to this. It's just sort of they're trying to sneak around having to collectively bargain it. But the problem is they're not taking into account everybody's not bound by this settlement.

So what happens when you've got a star player who gets their deal, their NIL deal invalidated by this clearinghouse, and the state attorney general in that kid's state goes, nope, this is illegal, we're suing you. Well, guess what? When it goes to court again, they're going to lose because you cannot do that in America. Like, you just can't. And they keep bumping up against the same thing. So I'll be curious because the judge has to approve this statement.

for it to even start. So will Claudia Wilkin, who's the judge who's presided over this case, and she presided over the O'Bannon case, and she's presided over a bunch of these NCAA cases, will she even approve this? Or will she say, hey, guys, this is just going to be a problem down the road, so you may want to go back and fix this?

What is the next step, though, in the event in which it doesn't get pushed through? Obviously, their whole goal is to eliminate rogue boosters and to create transparency in the salary cap. That, to me, is not a bad thing.

You just stop worrying about it and let the market take care of it like it already has. Because it's created an unequal playing field. That, I think, is what concerns people. Greg, is it more unequal now or less unequal than it was 10 years ago? Because it seems to me like more teams can compete now. I think that it's definitely a situation where more teams can compete.

can attract decent players, but it's not like we're seeing a whole bunch of teams now winning championships that didn't compete beforehand. I think Michigan was within an inch of playing in the playoff in 2015, 2016. Whenever it was, they got stopped on that point for sure. Washington made it to the playoff in 2016. And got blown out.

and didn't appear anywhere near it otherwise. So it seems to me like Oregon, now they're getting players that Alabama and Ohio State would have gotten. Tennessee is getting those players. Missouri is getting those players. I fail to see the argument that it's a less level playing field. It seems like

This unregulated NIL has actually made it more level, which is what the economists told us would happen. Well, I do think, though, we're operating on the assumption that people are going to continue to be as generous towards NIL as they've been to this point, which every other economist, if you will, says that donor fatigue is real and the next generation is really not going to be contributing. Those that are inheriting their parents' wealth are not going to be contributing the same way that their parents did.

They're definitely not going to be. And the donor fatigue thing is absolutely real. And so it's going to be interesting to see because you're going to have the money that the schools can pay. And then who kicks in additional? I think you'll still see the ones that want to join the club, the exclusive club. They're going to have some donors that are willing to kick in more. But the donors are tired of being asked for more money for NIL. I'm with that. But they're not going to have to give as much.

to be competitive now. I think you use that road share money and then there's going to be some supplemental donor money. And if you use it wisely, you're going to be really good. If you're not a good evaluator, not a good developer, you're going to be screwed and you're going to be wasting your school's money and your donor's money. So, but I don't think it's going to change. Like ADs I've talked to for the most part think differently.

It's going to operate similar to how it operates now, where the collectives are going to kick in more. And again, they can want the NCAA to have all this power. If it's still a violation of the Sherman Act, it's not going to happen. Like, I don't know how many times they're going to have to be whacked on the nose of the newspaper before they figure out, if we don't collectively bargain this, we can't have rules.

Hey Andy, I'm just curious because you brought up Oregon and getting players before you let you run. Why do you think so many people are so consumed with talking about their NIL situation? Because they don't get all the players. It's so funny, Cole. People beat them out for some guys. Yeah, and it's been the thing for years. Remember 10 years ago when all of this stuff was just like pie in the sky thinking we thought it would never get to this point. And everyone was like, what if Phil Knight just bought a team?

And you're like, okay, well, he could try, but there are other rich people who also like their teams. So I don't know if he could do that. And that's exactly what happened. Like, I'll give you an example.

We all assumed DJ Pickett, the corner from Zephyrhills, Florida, was going to commit to Oregon. And it would be just a phenomenal DB haul in this class because there's a thought that they're going to get a couple other really big-time DBs in this class. And he wanted to commit to LSU. Like, they don't get everybody. But they're the lightning rod. And it's funny because Oregon,

The same people who say that, who are like, Oregon's just buying a team, they're also the same people who are like, well, I'm tired of Alabama and Ohio State and Georgia winning everything. Well, what do you want? Do you want somebody else to join the club, or do you want the same teams to keep winning? That's a great question. Andy, we always appreciate the time. Great stuff. I look forward to catching up with you again soon.

Thank you, gentlemen. Appreciate it. Yes, sir. There you go. Andy Staples of the On3 Sports Network talking a little bit of house settlement, a little bit of Missouri. Something that we said we were going to discuss. We're going to do a different college football team every day. Why they will make the college football playoff. Kind of a series leading us up to kickoff. Missouri will be that team today. We'll begin to discuss them next, but if

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