Kelley Ford, the man behind Watchability Rankings in CFB, tells McElroy & Cubelic why the SEC has the most watchable games this season & why Georgia sits atop his power rankings
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Georgia and UCLA canceled their series in 25 and 26. Florida and Cal canceled their series in 26 and 27. Auburn and UCLA canceled their series in 27 and 28. Remember, Ole Miss and SC had already canceled theirs in 25 and 26. So previous Pac-12 SEC teams just kind of saying, no, we're good. We'll move on and do something else. Georgia will face Marshall in 2025. Buffalo...

Buffalo and Jacksonville State agree to a home-and-home, 28 in New York, 2031 right here in Alabama. So we'll continue with a lot of the conversation on College Football Media Days.

Pac-12 last night, Big 12 wraps up yesterday, Mountain West gets going today, of course, SEC next week. So we've got a lot to get to to discuss a lot of those, but I want to take a little bit of a different approach to this upcoming college football season and bring Kelly Ford on to discuss it. One of the things that intrigued me, Kelly, that I've seen you do recently is your list of most watchable college football games this upcoming season. Before we actually get into it,

Give us a little bit of a description of how you came up with this list. What's the criteria for generating this list? Absolutely. Well, I appreciate you having me on, Cole. And so all of my content, including my watchability scores, stems from my proprietary K-4 ratings. It's a power rating model. So similar to Bill Connolly's SP Plus or ESPN's SPI, I'm trying to power rate college football teams and say who would be favored against whom on a neutral field if the team's played tomorrow. So using that

kind of as the engine, what I do is I look at two factors, projected quality of the game, so the average K-4 rating of the two teams involved, and then the projected competitiveness of the game, so what's the K-4 spread of the two teams involved. And then using a weighted average of those two components, I'm able to generate a score, what I call a watchability score, on a scale of 0 to 10 to try to outline what are the most highly anticipated or what should be the most fun games to watch from a qualitative

quality and competitiveness standpoint. Those are the only two inputs that I do. And that gets every single game that involves an SBS team a score, and that's what I published the other day. Much to the delight of a lot of fans in the SEC country and much to the chagrin of many in the Big 12. Well, looking at some of these Big 12 games,

I guess, matchups that you've highlighted, see a lot of Utah, which kind of leads me to believe that you feel pretty good about the Utah Utes and their place at the table in their first year in the league. So how should we kind of assess this watchability score, if you will, when taking into account how often you might see a certain team?

Yeah, so there's no – it's a good question, Greg. There's no penalty or bonus awarded to appearing multiple times on any of these lists. And I did put out my top 20 Big 12 games or games involving two Big 12 teams because somebody requested that since no Big 12 team made it into the top 40 national games. And the reason for that, as I tried to explain, somewhat successful.

Successfully, probably not very because people were already upset at the list. But the Big 12 has a lot of really good teams. I mean, I think there are 10 teams in the Big 12 that potentially have an opportunity or a path to make it to Arlington. I think that conference race is probably going to be more exciting of the Power 4 than

than any of the others. But what the Big 12 has in depth and competitiveness, they lack in elite level teams, at least from a power rating standpoint as things stand. And that can change as the season goes, of course. But as things stand right now, the Big 12 doesn't have incredibly highly power rated teams from a national standpoint. So Greg, you talked about Utah. Yes, they are one of the two teams that I'm projecting right now as the most likely to make it to Arlington. The other one being Kansas State. Those two are my favorites in the Big 12 as it

stands right now. But like I said, you could realistically, in my opinion, make a case for upwards of 10 teams to make it to Arlington this year out of that conference. Yeah, there's a bunch. There's no doubt about it. It feels like if I do my top 25 about this time every year and the highest ranked Big 12 team I have is at 16. And that's because I'm bullish on Oklahoma State and with what they return. So looking at at Oklahoma State and kind of what

I'm trying to figure out why people have kind of fallen out of love with them. You obviously do a lot of statistical analysis, but I have a difficult time understanding why people are kind of down on them, especially knowing that last year they made the Big 12 title game, figured out who they were after week three, and kind of got hot as things went along. So how do you see the Pokes heading into this year, and what's the likelihood they could punch a ticket to the playoff?

Yeah, I've got Oklahoma State as the number 24 power-rated team in my model right now. And, Greg, like you, my highest Big 12 power-rated team is right in that area. I've got Utah at 18, Kansas State at 19, and then it's Oklahoma State that comes in next at number 24. Arizona, Kansas, and TCU all in the top 30 as well. But for Oklahoma State, as I look at their page here, their team breakdown, this, by my numbers, is potentially going to be the best Oklahoma State team since 2021. It's going to be the best offense.

that Oklahoma State has had maybe since 2018. I've got this as a top 20 offense right now. Of course, Ollie Gordon, a large part of that, and we all know what's going on there, but he's going to play from the get-go, it sounds like. The defense, they're going to be improved from the last two years, and that's really, I think, what held this team back from reaching a higher ceiling the last couple years is the defense. I've got them top 40 this year. If I go down their schedule, there's only a couple games right now that my numbers would make Oklahoma State

State a projected underdog. In week five, they've got to go to Kansas State. That's going to be a tough one. I've got a 32% chance for Oklahoma State to win that one, so about one in three. And then in week 11, they take a road trip to TCU, and it's a 45% chance to win that one. So only two games this year that my numbers right now have Oklahoma State as an underdog, but when you add together the cumulative effect of my win expectancies for each game, eight and four is the most likely record for Oklahoma State, and I'm projecting

you know, a six and two possibly in the Big 12. And as you said, Gray, what's their chance to make it to the playoff? My opinion, as things stand right now, is all the Big 12 teams are really in the same boat. Your chance to make the playoff is what's your chance to win the conference title? Because I am not sure, at least as things stand now, that there is an at-large bid out there for the Big 12. We could be surprised. We could get a couple teams that run through the season and have very small numbers in the loss conversation.

column, but as things stand right now, I think to feel good, you better win that conference if you want a guarantee you're going to be in the playoffs. Kelly Ford, kfordratings.com, where you can go find all of his statistical analysis of this college football season, not only now in the preseason, but through the entire year, at kfordratings. You can follow him on Twitter. I did want to go back to your watchability scores and ratings as far as games are concerned, because you explained it a little bit further.

because one of the things that caught me was through your list, I agreed with most of it, but I'm like, where's the iron ball in here? Like, how is that not one of the most watchable games or Ohio state, Michigan? How is that not one of the most watchable games? It comes down. I believe I understand this correctly to how competitive you think these games are going to be as well as just how good the two teams are going to be. Correct.

Yeah, that's exactly right, Cole, and that's something that I was trying to convey to more people on Twitter on X as I was posting this because I absolutely agree with those people that said Alabama and Auburn and the Iron Bowl, that's a hugely watchable game. It's going to score great ratings. I completely agree. Same thing with Ohio State and Michigan. I completely agree. Trust me, I'm going to be tuned into those games on Rivalry Week. There is no doubt about it.

but from a watchability score standpoint, as I outlined earlier, and you're right, it's the competitiveness factor, which I wait less than the quality. So both those games are getting good scores and quality because those are two really high quality teams from a power rating standpoint. But from the competitiveness standpoint, it's,

It's hurting those games that the game is taking place at the higher power-rated team. Alabama more highly power-rated than Auburn, and they're getting the home field advantage. Ohio State, in my model right now, even though we know what the last three years have been in this game, Ohio State's more highly power-rated, and that game's in Columbus. So there's already a differential there. It's being exacerbated by the fact that the home field's getting put in, and so you're getting a double-digit spread

That's going to hurt your competitiveness component, and it's going to drop it down my watchability score list. Still great games. I don't have to tell anybody that. Everyone's going to be tuned in 100%. And upsets happen. That's why we love this sport so much. But from my model standpoint, when those are the only two factors we're considering, that's why those two games in particular did not crack the top 40. But I'm very excited about those games, as I'm sure everybody is, you two in particular.

Kelly Ford joining us on the Buyers Rite Hotline. KfordRatings.com, you can find his work, statistical analysis on college football. So this is an interesting team after what you just laid out there. Greg and I have gone back and forth on this a couple of times this season. We're on a little bit different sides, but not completely. I'm fairly down on Michigan this year. I find it difficult to see them being a great football team again. That defense I think they can lean on to be pretty good.

But it sounds like you may have Michigan a little lower than a lot of other people do hitting into this season as well.

So Michigan for me right now, and they're such an interesting team. And anytime you have turnover on the coaching staff and with the roster, and hey, turnover is a relative term now because you're getting a lot more of it on a year-in, year-out basis in this new era of college football with the increased usage of the transfer portal and all the things that go into how you build a roster. But anytime you have that level of turnover, that increases your level of uncertainty in the model.

which, of course, I don't like from a data science standpoint, but also just from a field standpoint, it makes it more difficult. Michigan right now for me is number 12 in my power ratings. They are the number four favorite in the Big Ten. I've got Oregon, Ohio State, and Penn State all with more projected conference wins. But if I look at Michigan's schedule on their team page, the week two game at home against Penn State,

Texas, 34% chance to win, so about 1-3. Week 10, they're at home against Oregon, 33% chance to win that one. Again, 1-3. So both those games being at home will help Michigan. And then finally, to end the year, Week 14, Rivalry Week at Ohio State, I got just a 17% chance to win that game. If there are any Michigan fans listening, they'll be quick to point out, yeah, but Kelly, each of the last

three years, and that's not true because last year it changed late in the year, but two of the previous three years, you had Ohio State favored against Michigan, and we know how that went. They're absolutely right. The model is not perfect. I never claim it to be. It's a starting point for us to have a conversation about teams. That's kind of how I view it, but my model right now does like Ohio State significantly over Michigan. I think the offense is going to take a

huge step back. They were number nine last year. I've got them number 28 right now. The defense, I think, is still going to be pretty good. I know they lost some pieces. I know we had turnover. I still have them as a top five unit right now, but you put it all together and I've got Michigan number 12 as the reigning national champs.

It's pretty wild. I have them 11, so we're on the same page there. Hard to kind of get on board just not knowing at all what their quarterback situation is going to be like. I just can't trust them at this point. The offensive line just have a tough time thinking they're going to be as strong as they've been the last two years. Lastly, the ACC race to me is fascinating. I think there's three teams that I would have ranked in the top 15, but I'm curious the order.

for you, how would you assess Clemson, Florida State, and Miami? Those are three of my top four right now. They are the three highest power-rated teams for me, Greg, and I'll give you the answer right off the bat before the explanation. Florida State, number 10 in my power ratings. Clemson, number 14. Miami, number 17. Those teams are not actually 1, 2, 3 in my projected ACC standings, though. I've got Florida State and Clemson both at 6.0 projected conference wins. Actually, Louisville

sneaks in there at 5.6 before Miami at 5.4. And the reason Louisville is going to sneak in there is, by my numbers, Louisville has one of the easier conference schedules in the ACC. So if you strip away the non-conference, how difficult their just conference-only schedule, Louisville, among the easier in the ACC,

and their overall schedule difficulty is relatively easy as well for contender standards. So I'd stack them up with Florida State and Clemson being the favorites right now in the ACC, followed by Louisville because of that schedule, and then Miami. Better power rated than Louisville, but a little bit more difficult of a schedule might make it tougher to get to Charlotte, much like the Big 12 that we talked about earlier.

I think the ACC as things stand right now to feel good about making the playoffs. I think you've got to win that game in Charlotte at the end of the year. It's possible. There's an at-large out there for a team from the ACC. You know, if two of these three or four teams we're talking about have great regular seasons and lose just one or maybe two games before winning the conference championship, they might have an at-large, but man, I,

I just don't see it. I think the at-large bids right now at Think Stand are going to be eaten up by the SEC and the Big Ten. So these races and the ACC and the Big 12, they're hugely important because we care about conference championships, absolutely. But also, if you have aspirations to make the playoff and you're in one of those conferences, you know that's your only guarantee. So it's going to be a lot of fun. I agree with you. And right now my numbers would lean towards Florida State. And I feel happy about that just personally, numbers aside, after what happened to them last year.

Kelly, really good stuff. We appreciate the time. We'll obviously have you back during the season, kind of see how some of these things change, maybe where things are looking like they're going to head towards the end of the season, but appreciate your time today.

Absolutely, guys. I really appreciate it. Hope you have a good one. Absolutely. Kelly Ford there of Kelly Ford Ratings at KFordRatings on Twitter. KFordRatings.com is where you can find him online. Go check out Watchability. His preseason ratings that he has. He talked about his power ratings. You heard him. If you're interested in kind of what that is, Georgia at a 30.9.

Don't know the exact scale on that, so not really sure how to help you there. But Ohio State would come in next as a 26.6, which is a pretty big margin considering Oregon would be next 25.5, Texas 25.1, Bama 23.2. Not a lot of big gaps there. A little bit of Texas and Bama and then a little bit of a gap between Alabama and Penn State next at 6 at 21.3. Then he goes Notre Dame, Oklahoma at 8.

Ole Miss at 9, Florida State 10, LSU 11, Michigan, Tennessee 13, Clemson, Mizzou at 15, A&M 16, Miami, Utah, Kansas State, USC. Auburn would be at 23, Florida would be at 22. Some other teams of note, Kentucky 31 in Kelly Ford's ratings heading into the season. Nebraska at 40.

40 greg pretty good really that's good i mean that's pretty good i mean where would you have them would you have higher than that or lower than that uh i haven't gotten to in the 30s yet on my preseason rankings i'll work on that this weekend wow i don't i mean does it matter once you get past 15 not really 18 61 for mississippi state 84 for vanderbilt

I'm not saying these are massive surprises, but it's just teams of note as far as where they are. Memphis, a team you and I have talked a lot about having a chance to crash the playoff this year, has got them at 50. You know how many people, if Memphis is viewed as the 50th best team in the nation and they make the playoff, how mad some folks are going to be? Well, get ready. Well, that's what you wanted. Wait until Oklahoma State has a home game. Or a bye. Speaking of that, speaking of playoff home games,

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This is an interesting discussion on this new playoff schedule and home games and hows and whys. You'll hear it next on McElroy and Kubelik in the morning. Catch up with all things McElroy and Kubelik in the morning by subscribing to the podcast. Mythically, he's grown. He's almost like a little bit bigger than a player, right? Like the myth of Bo Jackson. Like, rate, and download the show from the Jock Tap or wherever you get your podcasts.

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I'm not self-aware. I refuse to be self-aware. I don't even look at mirrors at all.

which you can probably tell from my appearance. I don't have a crazy high IQ or I really don't have that many skills. I would say my main skill is I believe my instincts. I don't hesitate to follow my instincts ever. The extent that I have, I've gotten in trouble. The Sean Ryan Show on YouTube or wherever you listen.