Sam Herder, senior FCS analyst for HERO Sports, tells McElroy & Cubelic why it's not North Dakota State vs. everyone else in FCS & what the mindset is for transfer players in or out of FCS
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This Chalks94.5 podcast is brought to you by Millennium Satellite and Video. Log on to MSBnow.com. TV excellence everywhere. That's Millennium. McElroy and Kubrick in the morning starts now. All right, welcome back in. McElroy and Kubrick in the morning, Thursday, August 22nd, 8 a.m., hour number two. We'll get to our top three a little bit later this hour. Richard Johnson going to join us at 8.30 p.m.

Talk about Courtney Morgan, that new deal that he got in Alabama, how that happened, why that happened. His article up now at CBSSports.com. Sam Hurd are going to join us here in just a moment to discuss a little bit of FCS football. A lot of that's going to get going this weekend. And obviously the heat's going to keep going here in Alabama. So you make sure your HVAC system is ready to go. It's one of your largest investments this time of year, constantly being pushed to the extreme. Remember, you can trust a trained home comfort system to give you reliability and peace of mind day in, day out,

For years to come, visit train.com to find a comfort specialist near you. And remember, it's hard to stop a train. Sam Herter covers the FCS joining us now to kind of discuss FCS kickoff this weekend and just the FCS in general. Sam, we had senior bowl director Jim Nagy on yesterday, and I think he had four players from North Dakota State on their senior bowl watch list. Um,

How close is it to being North Dakota State and everybody else? How many teams are sort of in their category towards tier one of FCS football as we head into this season this year?

Yeah, the FCS is 130-some teams, so it is a very large subdivision, but it is pretty top-heavy. When it comes to Tier 1 in teams that are legitimately good enough to win a national title, I think you actually probably start with South Dakota State. They've won the last two. They've kind of taken the mantle of top team in the FCS, but North Dakota State is still the top program in

in the FCS, and they still expect to be competing at the top this year. And then along with those two, you have the two Montana schools, the Montana Grizzlies, Montana State Bobcats, two football programs that –

Fund their football team really well relative to FCS and even some group of five teams. Really passionate fan bases and football fans out in Montana. So you kind of start with those four as the legit title threats. But no doubt North Dakota State is always going to be in that mix as long as they're in the FCS.

What about how they match up this year in particular? Some big opportunities for FCS programs. I mean, that's go stay a slight dog on the road at Oklahoma state. Not bad. Same can be said with what North Dakota state sees next week when they tee it up against Colorado. So look, a lot of, a lot of us, we care. But I think the national audience, again,

They all are very intrigued by what they see from South Dakota State, North Dakota State, when they tee it up on a national platform. So how likely is it that they are not just competitive in those two games, but could ultimately pull the outright upset? Yeah, I think they're both going to be very competitive games. I wouldn't be surprised to see...

South Dakota State lead that game at some point, whether they jump up to a 7-0 lead early or maybe they're up by three going into the fourth quarter. I really expect both games to be competitive. I don't think either South Dakota State or North Dakota State are going to win their FBS games in week one. But like I said, I think they're going to be competitive games. The Jackrabbits lose a lot. I think they had six players from last year's team that signed

NFL contracts this offseason, whether through undrafted free agent deals or NFL draft picks. So the Jackrabbits lose a lot of talent, but they also bring back a lot of their top players as well. You know, North Dakota State is interesting because they are, I would say, the most well-known FCS program from just casual college football fans. And whenever I see someone nationally tweeting about the North Dakota State-Colorado game,

half of the comments are saying, oh, Colorado's going to win, and the other half of the comments are saying, oh, North Dakota State is going to absolutely boat race Colorado. It's North Dakota State. But I feel like the people saying that are more in tune with the North Dakota State program instead of the 2024 North Dakota State team, because this Bison team is going to be good at

at an FCS scale. They could even win a national title, but this isn't the 2013 Bison team that beat Kansas State. It's not the 2016 team that beat Iowa. The overall talent on NDSU is still good, but it's just kind of taken a dip back compared to some of their championship teams in the 2010s. So Bison are still good. I just don't know if this squad particularly is built to beat a team like Colorado.

Sam Herter covers FCS football. We've got the FCS kickoff coming up this weekend. We actually had UNA's head football coach on the show earlier this week. They'll be at the Crampton Bowl in Montgomery Saturday at 6 p.m. on ESPN. That will be ESPN's FCS kickoff game. Southeast Missouri State, maybe what should we expect? Do you believe UNA can make a jump this year with a new quarterback and maybe a little bit of a different style offensively?

Yeah, I actually have North Alabama winning this game in my predictions column. You know, just on the – and I kind of wrote it to –

Just on the surface, when you see North Alabama versus SEMO, in the FCS world, most people would lean SEMO just because they are a more well-known commodity in the FCS. SEMO has made the playoffs a few times in the last handful of years. North Alabama is just getting out of their transition from D2 to Division I. It's been kind of a slow build for North Alabama, but I think they're set for a –

I don't know if breakout year is the right word because I don't necessarily think North Alabama is going to be in the playoffs, but I think they are going to be much improved from their three and eight year last year. And even last season, they had some competitive games against quality opponents. They actually beat Chattanooga, who was a playoff team. And North Alabama brings back a

majority of their starting lineup. I know they like some of the transfer quarterbacks they're bringing in. Kenneth Brew is a really good wide receiver for them. I really like one of their defensive backs as well, Edwin White-Schultz. So they have good players, obviously in a really good area as far as recruiting. And that's the thing, too, not to go too deep into the transfer portal, but a lot of

good FCS players obviously transfer up to the FBS, and so that has hurt the FCS, but I've heard from many coaches that the

the level of talent coming out of high school, going into the FCS has never been better because FBS programs are using more scholarships on transfer players, leaving some, you know, high school recruits that the FCS can now get. And I kind of think of teams like North Alabama, you know, maybe they can get some guys that would have gone to, you know, South Alabama a few years ago and now they're no longer going there. So I just think the overall talent level for North Alabama is,

is going to keep on getting more and more impressive. And it's interesting to see maybe one of the benefits that's unspoken for a lot of people about the transfer portal, and that is FCS schools getting better high school players. What do the coaches tell you? And Sam, are you as surprised as we are that more FBS guys don't go down to find playing time and maybe guarantee playing time? I thought it was something that would be happening a lot, to be honest with you. Yeah.

And just so guys could get reps and play and specifically at quarterback guys that have been maybe two places and couldn't get on the field, go down where you're guaranteed to get some playing time, even just because you're the most talented guy on the team. What are coaches saying about that? Are they surprised? Have you been surprised at the lack of players actually taking that path?

Yeah, there's, you know, I talked to, I was at SOCON Media Day last month. And one, I asked them like, you know, what are some misconceptions of the transfer portal? Not necessarily what's positive about it, what's negative about it. What are some misconceptions? And one of the coaches said that they actually, a lot of the transfers they take are actually walk-ons, especially FBS transfers. This was Chattanooga's head coach. And he said, you know, some people might assume that, okay,

Okay, they see, you know, a player from, you know, let's just say Kentucky is going to transfers to Chattanooga. A lot of people assume that.

that Kentucky player is going to be a scholarship player because, hey, he's going from Power 4 to FCS. But a lot of these guys actually end up being walk-downs, which I thought was really, really interesting. And there's actually a pretty good amount of FBS guys transferring to the FCS. You really have to go digging to find some of these guys because they don't always announce it on Twitter. And all of a sudden they'll pop up on the roster. But I do –

Every offseason, I do FBS to FCS transfer trackers, and I do FCS to FBS transfer trackers. These numbers aren't 100% solid because, again, tracking transfers can be difficult. But this offseason, there's nearly 400 players from the FCS transferring to the FBS. And I've found there's right now 812 FBSs.

FBS players transferring to the FCS. So there's actually twice as many guys going from FBS to FCS, then vice versa, FCS to FBS. So it's interesting. I kind of think it flip-flops. I think a lot of FCS guys go to FBS

looking for NIL money, knowing they might not play as much. Whereas on the flip side, FBS guys transferring to the FCS, they just want to play. They're buried on the depth charts at their P4 or group of five school. They just want to play their junior and senior years, and they find a spot on an FCS team and is an impact player. What is the hit rate usually on an FBS to FCS player? Because most would assume that the FBS player probably has a size, speed,

combination that is unique and it's why they got recruited to the FBS to begin with. But you see a team like Murray State that brings in 23 guys from the FBS. What is the hit rate going to be for Murray State and Youngstown State who brings in 19 or Missouri State who brings in 17? What are the percentages of guys that actually go down and dominate? It's really a mixed bag. There are

there are some guys who make an immediate impact um you know chase artopias uh transferred from ucla to chattanooga uh quarterback last year he made an instant impact uh julius davis wisconsin running back to montana state he made uh an instant impact uh trying to think you know riley wilson y to montana made a a really good impact um

So there are guys, obviously, like they went to the FBS for a reason. You know, maybe they're an inch taller than, you know, maybe they're a 6'4 defensive end instead of a 6'2 defensive end, and that's why they went FBS and not FCS. And they just couldn't find their way on the field, and, you know, they end up coming down to the FCS and making an impact. But some guys...

you know, come in not with the right mindset. You know, maybe they were at, you know, maybe they were at Wisconsin and they're transferring to South Dakota and they just assume, hey, you know, I was at Wisconsin. I'm going to come in here. I'm going to come here and dominate. And they come in and realize that, you know, the FCS is pretty good as well. And they're not just automatically guaranteed a starting spot. So it is a mixed bag. And team-wise too, it is a mixed bag. You know, every

Every offseason, I look at which FCS teams brought in at least 15 Division I transfers, so 15 or more FBS slash FCS transfers, and how did they do? And a lot of these teams, their record either stayed the same or they got worse.

So, you know, you look at a team like, you know, Jackson State, they brought in a lot of transfers, but their total number of wins got worse. Same thing with, you know, Incarnate Word, you know, brought in a lot of transfers. Their record got worse. Stony Brook, you know, they went from two and nine,

brought in 15 FBS transfers trying to get better. Uh, they went from two and nine to only 11. Uh, you know, some of these teams got better, um, you know, bringing in a lot of transfers, you know, North Alabama, they went from one in 10 to three and eight and they brought in, you know, 13 transfers. Tarleton brought in 13 transfers last year and they improved their wind total. Same thing with Montana. Um, so it is a mixed bag. Um,

I've seen some FCS programs strike gold with FBS transfers and go from really bad to really good. I've also seen teams like Missouri State as a prime example. They had a breakout year in 2021. They kind of went all in in 2022, had all their returning starters coming back in 2022, Missouri State did, brought in like 20 FBS transfers that kind of doubled down.

and then things just didn't gel. Um, everything was discombobulated and they ended up getting worse. So it is, um, it can be a risk bringing in a lot of transfers. Sam, I want to ask you one more question. Uh, you, you mentioned a couple of matchups that we're going to get just sec teams. First few weeks of the season, Eastern Kentucky, Furman, Alabama, A&M, Chattanooga, Murray state, Arkansas, Pine Bluff, McNeese, Nichols, Sanford, all corn state. Any of those scary at all? Uh,

for some SEC teams are going to match up against those early in the year.

There are some decent teams on that list. I don't know if any of them are, you know, going to be competitive. I mean, you just never know. I think, I can't remember what year it was, but I think like the Citadel was tied with Alabama, like going into halftime and then Alabama scored them like 28 nothing in the second half. So if you don't show up, you can find yourself in a battle. You know, Furman is a pretty good program. You know, I really like Chattanooga this year. They're

Their quarterback is really good, Chase Artopias, who I mentioned earlier. You know, Chattanooga has a really good defensive tackle, Marlon Taylor. I think he's like 6'3", 320, getting some NFL love. And these are the type of games where, you know, I don't expect Chattanooga to win, but, you know, when NFL draft scouts, when they turn on the film of FCS players, the first film they look at is how they do against LSU.

against FBS competition. So for those FCS programs you listed, I think the goal is to compete as best as they can, stay healthy, pocket that guaranteed payout, and kind of just get out of there with as good a health as you can ask for. There you go. Sam, great stuff, man. Really appreciate the time. Always good catching up with you, and enjoy the season. We'll do it again soon.

All right. Sounds good. Thank you, guys. All right. Follow him on Twitter, at Sam Herter FCS. The best that I know that covers FCS football top to bottom. Does an excellent job, and we appreciate him joining us on the Buyer's Right Hotline for all your insurance, financial, and HR needs. It's Buyer's Right Insurance, a Higginbotham partner. That Chattanooga matchup will be week one.

11.45 a.m. on the SEC Network. So even with a good quarterback, I don't know if that's one that's going to be really scary for Tennessee with what they bring back. We've seen that matchup before. Even with about seven foul balls by Joe Milton. Not always enjoyable. It was a lot to a little. The mocks. But we'll see how they roll in this year. Was that two years ago? You did that game. I think it was two years ago. Yeah, it was Thursday. Yep. Yeah, I was in New Orleans. I remember watching it. It was...

You're up against potentially could have made our last segment of the day. You're up against Penn State was playing somebody like really good. I don't recall who it was, but it was somebody good. Might have been Northwestern. It's like two years ago. I don't remember. Anyways, long story short, everyone and their brother wanted the Penn State game on.

But guess what? You're like, nope. I said, I need Chattanooga Mocs and Tennessee volunteers to support the Cube. I need my Mocs. Cube dog. Big Moc man over here. So you want that life. Okay. Yeah, so I had a little TV on at Manning's in downtown New Orleans.

But I got my Tennessee. There you go. All right. When we come back, we skipped our top three in our previous segment. We'll go to it right after this on McElroy and Kubrick in the morning. Catch up with all things McElroy and Kubrick in the morning by subscribing to the podcast. Mythically, he's grown. He's almost like a little bit bigger than a player, right? Like the myth of Bo Jackson. Like, rate, and download the show from the Jock Tap or wherever you get your podcasts. It's time for Bob's Dare to Compare. You get styled.

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I'm not self-aware. I refuse to be self-aware. I don't even look in mirrors at all.

which you can probably tell from my appearance. I don't have a crazy high IQ or I really don't have that many skills. I would say my main skill is I believe my instincts. I don't hesitate to follow my instincts ever. The extent that I have, I've gotten in trouble. The Sean Ryan Show on YouTube or wherever you listen.