Countdown in the Commonwealth
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Welcome to Episode 7 of Beyond the Polls. This is our last show before some states hold their elections, so we have a triple dose of state of play coming your way today. Kentucky, Virginia, and Texas get deconstructed by the experts, while the Washington Post's Dan Balz runs down why the DeSantis-Haley fight may or may not matter. Let's dive right in.

State of play is our theme today. And joining us to talk about Texas is Rudy Bush, the editorial page editor of the Dallas Morning News. Rudy, welcome to Beyond the Polls.

Thanks for having me. Well, Texas looms large in the national consciousness, not just because of its outsized legacy in our national history, but also because it's the second largest state. It remains a fast-growing state, and it's the biggest GOP-controlled state in the country. What does politics look like to you down there, and are there any chance that the Democrats dream that Texas will turn purple? Any chance that that might happen sometime in the future?

I don't see it happening anytime in the near future, certainly. I think Democrats have had a decades-long dream that sort of demography would catch up with the Republican politics of the state. That hasn't happened. The Republicans maintain a

a really dominating just number of base voters over Democrats in Texas. It makes it really hard for any Democrat to get elected in statewide office. That hasn't happened since the 90s. So there's a the lock here is on how conservative can you can you be and the race is really are you a are you a rhino or are you a so-called true conservative? And we deal with that all the time here in Texas.

And rhinos in Texas would be considered real conservatives than most of the rest of the country. The term has just totally lost meaning here. It's been so warped up in, you know, who can pledge the most loyalty to Donald Trump or who won't vote to convict our ethically challenged attorney general in the Senate office.

or in the House for impeachment. So it's just kind of a mess. One of the things that's interesting is usually when a state gets this big, it gets a national profile. It used to be the governor of New York was always a presidential candidate. Then it became governor of California. Back in the 19th century, whoever controlled Ohio politics was immediately of national importance.

With the exception of Rick Perry, who had his brief oops moment on the stage in 2011, nobody has really emerged as a nationally prominent Republican figure. Ted Cruz has tried, and we know how that's gone. Why do you think that this state is big and is Republican as Texas lacks?

that sort of national figure, and do you see it changing? Yeah, I think it's a great question, and Cruz certainly has tried to take that role, and he's been rejected any number of times. The state-level politicians, whether it's Governor Greg Abbott or, you know, our Lieutenant Governor Dan Patrick, they...

for whatever reason, just can't get a toehold on a national profile. And I think a lot of it has to do with charisma. A lot of it has to do with the kind of unique constitutional way Texas is set up and that the governor and the lieutenant governor have really shared powers. And so I think it's a terrific question. I know Greg Abbott would have liked to have taken that role on.

But he somehow got painted in the role of the moderate conservative in Texas, which is strange because Abbott is not a moderate conservative. He's very hard right.

But there's no one waiting in the wings to be that person. It's really interesting, given how conservative the state is. Now, of course, 30 years ago, George W. Bush wanted to be that person, and Brie Fiedel became that person. But, of course, 9-11 kind of transformed our thoughts of him. When he came into office, he was kind of thought as the Texas boy, and by 2002, he was the war president. Right.

George W. Bush wouldn't really have a shot in a Texas primary these days, would he? I agree completely. He would have to change his politics totally. You know, George W. Bush was a guy who worked very closely with the lieutenant governor of Texas during his time, who was a Democrat, Bob Bullock, a very well-known across-the-aisle kind of figure, and took the message of compassionate conservatism and immigration reform and

any number of policy matters that just wouldn't be accepted in Texas today. And of course, his nephew, George P. Bush, was a land commissioner here, tried to run for attorney general and was handily beaten.

uh by a guy who's under federal investigation for corruption uh because all that matters now it seems or the biggest thing that matters is just signaling that you're the biggest conservative in the room whatever that means nowadays well the the man who has tried to be the biggest conservative in the room is up for re-election uh ted cruz he's got

Colin Allred, a Dallas area congressman, as his primary Democratic challenger. And I follow Allred on Twitter, and he's telling everyone that he can win and give him more money. Is he blowing smoke up his followers? You know what? Or is there a real shot that Ted Cruz could be upset? Well, keep in mind that

When Beto O'Rourke ran against Cruz, it was the closest that a Democrat has come to toppling a statewide Republican in many, many moons. And the reason for that is that while

Cruz enjoys a really robust Republican base. He is as off-putting to a lot of Texans as he is to the nation. And so Allred is an interesting candidate.

who I think has the ability to rally a lot of people. He doesn't have the same charismatic spark that O'Rourke had, but he does have a really good sort of get-it-done kind of personality. Is he blowing smoke? I think it's a huge hill to climb. He's got a long way to go to overcome just the advantages Cruz has in the numbers. But look, Cruz can't sleep on this race.

He's got to run. One of the things that national Republicans talk about when they look at Texas is the shift in the Rio Grande Valley, that it's traditionally been a highly Latino and still is highly Latino. It used to be massive Democratic votes. And it still is Democratic on large. But there was a big shift in 2020. 2022 seemed like the Democrats didn't gain a whole lot of their old votes back.

Is there a prospect that the Rio Grande Valley can be like the tip of a Latino sphere? Because the whole point of the Texas is going to turn purple argument has rested on the growing Latino population for well over a decade in Democratic journals. No, you're exactly right. I think it's maybe the most interesting political story in the country. Of course, I'm biased because I'm here in Texas. But the...

I think blue cities around the country are waking up to the seriousness of the immigration problem and what a potent political issue that is.

The Rio Grande Valley has been awake to that for a long, long time. And they understand the impact on their communities of a border that they don't feel is adequately enforced and an immigration system that is broken. Now, those feelings are really complex. This isn't about a build the wall kind of mentality. It's about

hey, let's enforce the laws that we have. Where is the border patrol? What are we going to do about people who are claiming asylum? So I don't want to simplify this because when you talk to people down there, it's really quite complex. But I think Democrats did simplify it for a long, long time and just made the rote assumption that people who are of color

Mexican origin or who come from a Latino background will automatically be our voters. It's just not the case. And Republicans are making a lot of inroads. So the Republican primary is likely going to be on Super Tuesday. It was in 2016. Yeah.

Trump looks like he's running away with everything nationwide. Is that the way it looks there? And if Trump ran into trouble somewhere, where would you would you see it in Texas at all? Or do you think that this is a place where he might be in trouble somewhere else, but not here?

I don't think that he's going to have any trouble in Texas. I just see him... You know, republicanism in Texas really comes down to how much will you support Donald Trump. And it's said out loud. And it's part and parcel of whether you are a, quote, true conservative or not.

And I think that that is the tenor of the party right now, and it's going to hold on election day. But one of the things you hear in addition to the Latinos are going to help make Texas turn purple is the, well, look at all the people fleeing California or look at all the people fleeing blue states to come for their jobs. They're going to bring their politics with them. Any evidence of that yet?

Yeah, there is actually an indication. We see a lot of it in our housing prices in Texas. So Texas has a long-time reputation, especially in its cities, of being a really affordable place to live. You can get a big house and a big yard and all that sort of stuff for pennies on the dollar relative to what you might pay in California. And very common in Austin and Dallas and

the larger cities in Texas to find that your new neighbor is from California and that neighbor's political views may be more to the left. So it could have an effect over time. I tend to think that the raw numbers are not going to be enough to make the shift dramatic or fast or what Democrats might like. And Texas cities are already

much more liberal than the broader states. So that impact isn't significant, really. The suburbs are interesting, though. What will things look like within, say, these wealthier suburbs that define Austin, define Dallas? I think that those are in play a little more than they maybe have been. And I've seen some of that in the redistricting and that sort of thing.

Certainly we saw it in 2018 where the House district that gave Romney like a 20 point margin in 2012 voted for Hillary Clinton. And then two years later elected. This is a seat that had elected George H.W. Bush to Congress in the 60s, elected longtime Ways and Means chairman Bill Archer and elected Lizzie Fletcher. Because there's a lot of suburban Republicans who didn't like the tenor of the new Republican Party.

That's right. Yeah. And I think that's carrying forward. Well, final question. What are you looking for in 2024 to kind of give you a clue as to where Texas is heading? If we're going to have this conversation, you know, say December of the election has already happened. What do you think, you know, one way or the other? What are you going to be looking at? Say, here's something that I can learn going forward about my statement.

Well, the all red cruise race is critical. And that is going to be really telling as to how much appetite the state really has for change, you know. And so we'll be watching that. I also do want to see how the suburbs turn out. If Donald Trump is the nominee and I mean...

as things are going now, right? Where are the suburbs of Houston, Austin, and Dallas? And what does that do down ballot? That's going to be really interesting to me to see. Well, Rudy, how can my listeners follow your work?

Well, we'd love you to come to DallasNews.com slash opinion. And we're also on Twitter at DMN Opinion or whatever we're calling Twitter these days. And if you're interested in Texas politics, that's what we write about. All right. Well, thank you very much for giving us a tour of the Lone Star State and joining us on Beyond the Polls. Thank you, sir.

Well, here we are, and our triple play of State of Play continues with Al Cross. Al has been a political commentator in the great Commonwealth of Kentucky for nearly 50 years and is the director emeritus of the Institute for Rural Journalism at the University of Kentucky. Al, welcome to Beyond the Polls. Glad to be with you, Henry.

Well, it will surprise many of my listeners to learn that deep red Kentucky, home of Mitch McConnell and Rand Paul, has a Democrat as its governor. How did this happen? It was a fluke. We had a governor, a Republican governor, Matt Bevin, who made a lot of people mad, including the schoolteachers, especially the schoolteachers, about half of whom are Republicans.

And they abandoned him. And Andy Beshear, son of Steve Beshear, a two-term governor, was elevated from the office of attorney general to governor by a margin of about 5,200 votes. So if he won by a whisker, he clearly knew the borrowed time he might be living on. How has he handled himself in office? And how did Kentuckians view him as the reelection year started?

Well, the Republicans thought Bashir would be easy pickings, but then the pandemic hit and Bashir followed the advice of public health experts. And as he will remind you in his reelection campaign, the Trump administration and instituted some fairly rigorous protections. And more importantly, he was on television every weekday at about five o'clock.

people came to call it Andy time. And no governor of Kentucky has ever had such a presence before.

in the households of his constituents. Now, this is a state that is divided into 10 media markets. Lexington is the only major media market completely within the state. So a lot of Kentuckians just really don't keep up with what's going on with their state government. But in the pandemic, the governor had the emergency authority to affect their lives in very big ways. And people watched and people approved. And

In this state, I think once people make up their minds about a governor or a candidate for governor, it's hard to get them to change. You know, they've got other things to worry about. They're distracted by stuff from other states. They pretty much made up their minds about Andy Beshear. His approval ratings have generally been above 50. And he's led in every public poll with Daniel Cameron, the Republican attorney general.

So who is Daniel Cameron? He's 37 years old, a young man rising in a hurry. How did he become the Republican nominee and why do people think he's got a shot?

Well, I'll answer your second question first. People think he has a shot because this is a Republican trending state. It's more Republican than it was when Andy Beshear was elected. Republicans now have a plurality in voter registration, and that increases every month. The last month, three times as many people registered Republican as Democratic.

So he has to hope that his sandcastle built on the beach is far enough up the beach to withstand the Republican tide that continues to roll in. Cameron was not really seen as a candidate for governor until last summer when he announced that he'd been endorsed by Donald Trump.

And Cameron is a protege of Mitch McConnell. So you have a certain dichotomy going on there. I don't think this is a race that Mitch McConnell wanted Daniel Cameron to make. But I think it's clear that Cameron and his wife would much prefer that he continue his public service in Kentucky rather than going off to the Senate, which was probably what Mitch McConnell had in mind for the end of McConnell's term in 2026.

Well, certainly that Senate governor interplay might matter if Cameron does manage to win despite the polls showing him down because people talk about Mitch McConnell's frailty. And tell us a little bit about the gubernatorial, the governor's role in appointing a successor should Mr. McConnell decide that he's at the end of the road.

Well, once Matt Bevin was out of the way, McConnell and the Republican legislature got a law passed that says an appointee to a Senate vacancy must be chosen from a list of three people put forward by the governing body of the party of the departed senator.

This is the law, a similar law, in a few other states. It's never really been tested. There have been rumblings from Democrats that if McConnell were to resign or die in office, that Beshear would challenge that law. And Beshear really won't answer the question. He says Mitch McConnell's not going anywhere, so he just declines to address it.

But I think if something happened, we'd probably go to court. And clearly, if Mr. Cameron should prevail, there ain't going to be no challenge. Well, the Democrats would be unhappy, but they wouldn't have any grounds to challenge. No standing and no law in favor of them.

So this has been a pretty hot and heavy race. Tens of millions of dollars on each side, with my understanding is Bashir having a very large advantage, both in cash and in TV time purchased. What have they been using all of that money and media to say?

Well, first you have to find who they are. They are super PACs as well as the candidates. And the super PACs have really helped keep Cameron in this race. And of course, we don't know where a lot of that money is coming from. You have to presume that Mitch McConnell had something to do with raising it.

And they have essentially tried to tie Bashir to Joe Biden. They're trying to nationalize this race. I think that's been difficult for them because people have already evaluated Andy Bashir, and they understand that he's the governor of the Commonwealth of Kentucky, not some subsidiary of the White House. And they can separate those two offices.

Bashir, on the other hand, has been able to flip the script on abortion because Cameron does not favor any exceptions to our law banning abortion except in case of threat to the woman's life. No rape or incest exceptions. Bashir has been able to hammer him on that and say he's extreme. Most people favor the rape and incest exceptions.

Now, Cameron has tried to come back in recent debates, particularly last night, did a good job of saying, OK, Governor, what is your limit? Where would you draw the line? And about all Bashir would say is that, well, the courts have set some guidelines in Roe versus Wade and so on. Before this race, he said that he was generally in favor of Roe versus Wade, but he doesn't want to get caught in the trap of saying 20 weeks, 15 weeks or whatever.

So one of the interesting things about the Commonwealth is that it is one of the very few states that still does not have no excuse, mail or absentee voting. And it also has a very limited in-person early voting time period. So...

Three days, right. So we're two weeks out, and unlike almost any place else, no votes have been cast yet. How do you see that? This is like an old-fashioned race. Maybe we'll have abacuses and huddling things up on election day. Actually, we have a pretty fast count here. We have a statewide election system. Even though it's 120 county clerks putting the vote in, it's pretty well computerized, and we're able to call these races usually by 10 o'clock.

And I'm sure Bashir wishes that there were more early voting days because he's leading and Cameron is, I think, catching up a little bit as Republicans come home and as Cameron fills the airwaves with his endorsement by Donald Trump. Yeah.

There's a question whether or not Trump will actually come and make a personal endorsement. I think if he were to do that, that would be a strong indicator that Trump believes Cameron actually has a chance of winning.

You know, Trump doesn't like to endorse losers. Not that it stopped him before, but he doesn't like it. Well, he endorsed Cameron in the primary, which was essentially, I think, what got Cameron into the race. And that endorsement's good throughout. The ad that Cameron is running is actually with video from 2019 when he was running with Matt Bevin.

And Trump came to town. But he's trying to give the impression, I think, that, oh, Trump has been here just lately and anointed this fellow as our next governor. Not exactly. Well, how do you see the last two weeks unfolding? We're 13 days away from Election Day and voting doesn't even start until mid next week. How do you see this unfolding?

Well, the debates are over. The cards have pretty well been dealt. I think the candidates are going to not be making any real news in terms of issues. It all boils down to Trump, who has been the X factor in this race from the get-go. If

Cameron is able to motivate Republicans, the Trump-oriented Republicans, to get out because they think it's what Trump wants them to do, then he has a pretty decent chance. But it doesn't quite work in this race like it did in 2018.

That's when Trump, I think, may have made a difference in the 6th District congressional race. Amy McGrath was running neck and neck with Andy Barr, and Trump came to town, and all of a sudden, Barr went ahead and stayed ahead. But that was a president endorsing in a federal race. A former president, a controversial one, endorsing in a state race is not quite the same. And I think if Trump came to town, it would also energize a number of

anti-Trump Republicans to turn out for Beshear. And we do have a lot of anti-Trump Republicans. This is not a fully Trumpy Republican state like those to the south of us. If any of my listeners wanted to follow the election night like a pro, what would you tell them to be looking for? What are you looking for as the returns come in to see whether or not Beshear or Cameron will prevail?

Well, in the early returns, the best counties to look at are Madison, which is a collar county outside Lexington. It has a university. It is a pretty good bellwether county.

And it's a large enough county to where you're not dealing with small sample sizes. There are a number of other counties like Warren, for example. Bowling Green is now the third largest city in Kentucky. And it was carried by Beshear last time by a small margin. Beshear has put a lot of effort into Warren County, both as governor and as a candidate.

And Cameron also knows that's very important. It's a Republican town now, but Beshear is popular there, I think. That was one of the towns hit by the tornadoes. And he got pretty good marks for handling the tornadoes in western Kentucky and the floods in eastern Kentucky. It sort of baked in the regard that people had for his executive actions during the pandemic.

Well, are you willing to venture any predictions or is this in too close to call land for you? No, it's not too close to call. But you do have to say there's an X factor here, which is Donald Trump. And you just don't know how he's going to play because let's face it, he's pretty radioactive these days. And my guess is that he's.

He will not come to town unless he sees Cameron catching up and thinks he can make the difference for Cameron and legitimately claim that. Now, you know, he has made claims in the past that were illegitimate, but, you know, it's always nice to be legitimate. Yeah.

I think that Republicans will gradually come home, but the question is, will they turn out? This is not a persuasion election. It is a turnout election in which both sides are putting a great deal of effort into getting their base voters to the polls. And even Republicans will tell you that they think Beshear has made a better effort of that than Cameron at this point.

Mr. Cross, how can my listeners follow your work? And if you're going to be doing something on election night, how can they follow your live commentary? Well, I write a column about every other week for the Northern Kentucky Tribune, which is nkytrib.com. That column is also republished in the Lexington Herald-Leader, the Louisville Courier-Journal, a number of papers around the state.

And I will be on Kentucky Educational Television on election night, and that will be streaming at ket.org. And do you have a social media presence? I am at Rural J, Rural Journalism. All right. Well, thank you very much for joining me on Beyond the Polls. Glad to be with you, Andrew.

It's my honor to welcome to Beyond the Polls Dan Balz. Dan is one of the deans of political reporting in America and a longtime political reporter at The Washington Post. Dan, welcome to Beyond the Polls. Henry, thank you. It's my pleasure to be with you. Well, this is one of these weird races that seems to be not a race, this Republican thingy-dingy. I don't think I've ever seen so many high-profile Republicans

nationally known, respectable figures flail about so much and fail to gain ground on the frontrunner. What's going on?

Well, I think the frontrunner has a commanding hold on this primary electorate and the Republican electorate, and almost nothing can seemingly dislodge those voters from his support. And so I agree with you. This is the strangest pre-election year, pre-primary season, primary contest that I've ever seen. The total absence of movement and, frankly, the

what is seemingly the increasing lack of interest in all of those other candidates. I mean, they're kind of trying to go at one another and they're doing...

things, but it doesn't seem to register on anybody, and it certainly has not changed any votes. I mean, I think the only thing we've seen of note is the decline of Ron DeSantis, the governor of Florida, over this long period. But it's not as though anybody has really been able to take much advantage of that. And so...

And I would add one thing, which is that we still haven't heard from voters. We've heard from polls and we've heard from a lot of pundits and a lot of people with opinions about what all this means. But I await the first votes in Iowa and New Hampshire.

to see if there is anything that is going to change the dynamic of this race. If you were sitting here today, you would say probably not. But things do happen in the last few weeks before Iowa that can give the race a different complexion. We'll see if that happens in this one. But up to now, it has been static and beyond static.

Well, certainly the candidates at least are putting on that they believe they can still do it. And one example of that is the increasing battle in the last 10 days between Ron DeSantis and Nikki Haley, that DeSantis' decline has been accompanied by a slight Haley rise. In some early states, she's in second place in the polls, and others, she's being nipped at his heels. And both sides are snipping at each other and press releases and ads on the air. What's going on there? Well...

Each of them wants to emerge as the alternative to Trump, even if they are a distant alternative. And to get to that point, they have to take down each other.

I thought after the second debate and watching that debate, there were only two candidates on that stage who had any capability of becoming the alternative to Trump. And one was named DeSantis and the other was named Haley. And increasingly, they have they have recognized that about one another. And I think that that intensity will increase increasingly.

as we, you know, near the end of the year and get on the cusp of the Iowa caucuses. I think in some ways I had thought earlier that DeSantis

had a better claim on becoming the alternative because of his particular views and because of his recent experience as governor of Florida, that of those two, he might be the stronger person within the Republican primaries, but that Haley could well persuade people that she would be a stronger candidate in a general election and that that would be her calling card. We'll see if that happens.

becomes the case. And I think this third debate will be very much about the two of them and almost nothing about the others on the stage. Well, let's chat a little bit about the debate then is what are you looking for? If you think that it'll mainly be a question of

A continuation and maybe an intensification of this fight between them. What are you looking for between them and what could make it matter as opposed to simply be an exchange of vitriol and attacks between the two of them?

There's probably not a lot that could make it matter. I mean, I think that's the general reality of debates. The debates that matter over the long course of debates that you and I have watched are debates in which somebody makes a big mistake. A good performance is what

you want, but a good performance doesn't necessarily move you forward vis-a-vis an opponent. In most of these debates, even though everybody wants to call winners and losers,

You know, it's often in the eye of the beholder and often in the perspective that people have already brought to the candidates before the debate begins. And so calling winners and losers among people who perform reasonably well is kind of a game that's played, but it doesn't have much meaning.

I think that the thing I will be watching in this third debate is the dynamic between the two. What are the arguments that each is advancing on behalf of him and herself? And what is the argument that they are advancing as to why the other is inferior to them in terms of becoming a viable candidate to take on Trump once the primaries and caucuses begin? I don't...

I think Nikki Haley is going to want to concentrate on foreign policy. And I think that there is, there is vulnerability on the part of DeSantis in that, in that, uh,

set of topics. Um, he has not been particularly sure footed on foreign policy matters. I think on the other hand, um, he has a set of policies that he's worked on in Florida and a command of those issues, uh, that I think has come through in some of the other debates and certainly when he's been on the stump. Um, and I think that that will be where he will try to, to, uh, go after Haley. I noticed there's a, there's an ad, uh,

running in the New England market from Never Back Down, the DeSantis super PAC, which is taking on Haley on China as having been a friend of China over the years. So we'll certainly see some element of that. But I think that's what I'm going to be looking for. Yeah, well, certainly DeSantis is giving what's being billed as a major foreign policy address on Friday at the Heritage Foundation.

and is presumably going to set out the DeSantis doctrine. That will make everyone quake in their boots. But if you were Ron DeSantis, what would you say? Not from a what's good for the country standpoint, because heaven forbid that we might think of that, but what's good for my primary chances? If you were doing the

DeSantis optimal foreign policy speech, understanding that you've got Haley who's just ramped it up since the Gaza Hamas attack on Israel. What would you say?

Henry, I'm loathe to give advice to candidates. It's one area that a journalist like myself tries to stay out of. And so what I will say is going to be quite generic and anodyne as a result. You know, I think he needs to find safer ground and less ambiguity. And if, you know, if his advisors are not saying to him, you need to have clarity of where you really stand on

vis-a-vis Ukraine, vis-a-vis Israel and Hamas and the Palestinians. Those are the areas where I think that he needs to, you know, have clarity as opposed to ambiguity. I think also all of them

on the issue of China, I think most of what they have said on China is pretty easy to say if you're a candidate. For example, you know, we're going to stop

letting them buy land in Florida or in South Carolina or somewhere. We're going to get tougher with China. But it's not clear that any of them have really articulated a real world view and a real world policy that is distinctly different from President Biden's. It's easy for them to say Biden has been weak.

on this, that, or the other thing without saying in what ways they would be strong that actually amounts to real policy. And I think all of them, and particularly Haley and DeSantis in this upcoming debate, have some responsibility to begin to do that. Well, Haley would have us believe, and her campaign would have us believe, that she surmounts

to Santas, and she's got a real chance to knock off Trump. What's your thought about that argument? Does she have a real path, or is this really a real path to second place? Well, I think at this point it's a real path to second place. I don't think you can underestimate the strength that the former president has as the likely Republican nominee. You know,

Henry, he is in fact running as an incumbent for re-election. And if you are running in your own party primary as an incumbent for re-election, you usually are a pretty dominant force. And I think that...

If there's been a misjudgment from the beginning about how vulnerable he was, it is that having lost the 2020 election, he became just another out-of-office politician and therefore would have to compete for the nomination. But I think that in the eyes of his party, a considerable part of the party, many of whom agree with him on this,

the 2020 election, that he is in fact the incumbent. And so it's devilishly difficult to take down an incumbent. Does Nikki Haley have a path?

she might have a path to become the alternative, and then she has to demonstrate that she can broaden that support. And I think something would have to happen to Donald Trump for her to, or DeSantis, if he's the principal alternative, something would have to happen to change perceptions of Trump in order for perceptions of their viability to become the nominee to improve. Well, and that leads me to my last question, which is,

Donald Rumsfeld talked about unknown unknowns and known unknowns. And one known unknown we have is that now two lawyers that were part of President Trump's post-election attempt to overturn the results and his former chief of staff have either pled guilty in criminal cases or have reportedly taken an immunity deal.

which presumably means they have things to say to prosecutors, perhaps about the former president. What could they say or what evidence could they produce that would matter to a Republican electorate? Frankly, I think there's very little that will matter to a Republican electorate. It may be very, very significant in terms of the legal cases that the former president's involved in and perhaps increasing jeopardy that he is in as a result of what these former

former lawyers of his have decided to do and the former chief of staff. So I think it's important in the context of the legal cases that are coming and the trials that are coming. But everything we have seen over the course of this year is that the Republican voters side with Donald Trump's view of the world and discount

anybody who is critical of him. And so I think it would take something very, very dramatic beyond the idea that, well, we told the president that he had lost and et cetera, et cetera. I think it's going to take something that we may not be even able to contemplate right now that would have a dramatic, a seismic effect on the perceptions of a majority of the Republican electorate.

Yeah, I'm old enough to remember the Watergate hearings. And what I think really changed public opinion as much as anything else, although there were many things that changed public opinion, was Richard Nixon's voice on the tapes.

And I just wonder whether or not there's a modern version like a text or whether or not Sidney Powell decided to surreptitiously tape a conversation with the president that could come out. But in the absence of that, I agree with you. If it's he said versus she said, or in the case of Meadows, he said versus he said, I think the Republican voters will view these people as turncoats and back the president.

Yeah, I think that's right. I mean, your phraseology of that is, I think, an important one, the view that anybody who goes against Trump, who has been a former advisor or has benefited from an association with him and now turns on him, is a turncoat and will be judged that way and their words will be judged in that context.

So, Dan, how can my listeners follow your work, aside from subscribing and paying for the organization that pays for both of us, The Washington Post? Well, that would be the first way, and that's the most important way. We try to make it attractive to subscribe digitally.

If you don't do that, I'm occasionally on television on Washington Week and some other programs, so I don't do a lot of that. I'm a print person or now a digital person more than a television person, but those are the ways. If you don't subscribe to the Post, you can look into it on YouTube.

certain number of articles every month and you if you want to look for my name you can do it that way you might you know you might try it on you know just a google search or something but but uh we we love all our subscribers and we want more well dan thank you as always for your suit observations and i hope to have you back on beyond the polls great i'd be happy to do it thanks henry

Well, it wouldn't be State of Play if we're not talking about my home state, the Commonwealth of Virginia. They're having a set of legislative elections that people all around the country and political nerds and pundits like me are taking a close look at. And here to deconstruct it all for you is J. Miles Coleman, associate editor of Saboteau's Crystal Bowl at the University of Virginia's Center for Politics. Miles, welcome to Beyond the Polls.

Thank you for having me, Hendrix. Well, why is it that crazy people like you and I care about who runs the House of Delegates after Election Day? Yeah, you know, that's one thing about, you know, living in Virginia. As you know, we have some type of election every year.

We're often seen as a bit of a bellwether for what may be coming down the pipe. So I would say probably the big issue that Democrats are pushing this year, same thing as they did with last year since Roe, was abortion. And we're really the last state in the other south with relatively loose abortion laws. The Republicans have

He tried to take some ownership of that issue, which has been interesting, but is maybe a testing ground for how Republicans approach some issues. Governor Youngkin talks about his pushing for a 15-week limit.

on abortion. I think the Republicans really, since Roe has fallen, haven't really come up with a great answer in terms of how they approach the abortion issue. So if it's successful here, you know, that may be a template that they could apply next year. One of the other ways that Virginia, I think, is a testing ground for Republicans is Governor Youngkin making a push for Republicans to vote early. You know, that's not something that you

have heard a lot about, you know, especially since 2020 when, you know, you have Trump talking about how the, you know, early absentee voting is fraudulent. We, we shouldn't do it as Republicans. Um, but Youngkin is making that, that, uh, kind of push. And I think it's, it's, it's, uh, you know, some of the successful Republicans like Brian Kemp in Georgia, uh,

Ron DeSantis as well last year had decent early voting programs. So that's something Youngkin is trying to replicate. But I would say in terms of the states, you know, I'll back up a little and say that the Democrats are going into this with control of the state Senate.

they're trying to win back control of the house you know you talk to a lot of democrats here there seems to be a sense of you know they're not really going to be able to pass a lot of their big ticket agenda items whether it comes to education infrastructure spending etc until the next democratic governor comes along uh but i think they're fighting so so so that in terms of

its legislative agenda that Virginia, which is normally a blue state, doesn't start to look more like a Florida or a Texas. Well, what about that early voting push? Is there any indication that it's having some success? And will it matter in determining the outcome of some of these key races?

Yeah, I would say, you know, in Virginia, it's sort of hard to tell with the early vote because sometimes it's hard to get a baseline. Well, you know, the last year where only the legislature was up was 2019 and

That was before some of our new early voting laws went into place. If you look at the early vote this year, it's about on track with 2020. But in Virginia, it's hard because there are some states, as you know, Henry, like Georgia or Louisiana or North Carolina, where if you look at the early vote, you can kind of tell based on racial data or partisan data, gives you some idea ahead of Election Day.

But this, you know, Virginia can't really do that because we don't register by party or race or any of that stuff. But the one thing that has caught my attention was I got a question from a reporter, a local reporter here. She was pointing out to me that, you know, the compared to mail-ins,

the in-person absentee seems to be punching a little above its weight this year. So my kind of J. Miles Cohen theory on that is, well, maybe if I'm a Republican who's skeptical of early voting, maybe I'd be more comfortable going to vote in person as opposed to sending in a mail-in ballot. So that's sort of an anecdotal sign I've seen, but we'll just prepare the context in 2022.

After the election, I was looking at the breakdown of the early vote of Democrat versus Republicans. The Democrats got 63 percent of the early vote. And if Republicans could kind of take that down just a little, I think that's something that could potentially lift their candidates in not just one race, but several. Well, how does it look to you about two and a half weeks out? Is there a favorite between these parties and does it differ by chamber?

Yes, I think that's a good point you make about the chambers being a little different. I think, you know, I may say, just to get this out there, at the crystal ball, we don't really issue formal ratings like we do for, say, house races or races for federal level stuff. But my feeling is,

The Senate probably leans Democratic. I say that just because under the new maps in the 40-member state Senate, Governor Youngkin in 2021 would have carried only 20 of the 40 seats. So if you figure Youngkin's numbers are sort of like the Republican ceiling,

The Democrats just need to pick off one of those marginal Biden to Youngkin seats to get a majority. So that's my kind of prognosis for the Senate. The House seems like it's maybe a bit more of a true toss-up.

um you know it's it's uh you know i think you know it's going to come down to just a handful of races but i've seen before like in 2017 with the democrats for 2021 with the republicans now if it's a good enough night for either party you know a lot of these toss-up seats they'll all end up breaking towards the same way so one thing that

we look at when we're looking at elections is obviously seats because it's not like a statewide race where we look at regions and try and get a thing. When you're talking about control of a chamber, you're looking at actually winning individual seats.

What are the seats that you're looking at in both chambers that you think are kind of like the indication on election night that Republicans win two of these or four of these? They win control of Democrats when two or four of these they win control.

Yeah, in the states, I would say probably a must win for the Republicans if they want to get to a majority is Senate District 16, which is sort of in the short pump area of Penry, Pico County. There are lots of Democratic trends in this area. But this is one of the I think this is the only toss up seat where the Republicans have an incumbent.

Senator Siobhan Dunn has been there a few terms, I think. She has tried to distance herself from Youngkin on the abortion issue. Some of the Republicans have said, you know, this is going to be the Susan Collins of Virginia. But at the same time, it's a district that Biden would have won by 15, 16 points. So

If the Republicans can win this seat, I think they have a very good shot at flipping the state Senate. Earlier, I was talking about how the Democrats really only...

Assuming they pick up Senate District 16, because that was even a McAuliffe district, assuming they win all the McAuliffe seats, they need one more for a majority. To me, the majority-maker seat is probably Senate District 31, which is mostly in Loudoun County. The Republicans like their candidate, a guy named Juan Pablo Segura.

The Democrat, Russ said, Perry, I joke, but she's almost like a carbon copy of Abigail Spanberger. If you look at her resume and the issues she emphasizes, this is a Biden plus 13 seat. So it's the most marginal of those young kids seats. So that's, it's a...

Both of the candidates have raised, you know, if you look at their combined spending, it's been like $6 million. Which just for a legislative seat is insane. You know, one Senate district I'd highlight as well is District 24 on the peninsula, Senator Monty Mason. We had one operative tell us that, you know, this could be a district that's going to be decided by double digits.

And that's the raw margin of votes, not the percentage margin. And in terms of the House, I would look at maybe Prince William County. You have some very close races there, San Andes, San Andes.

Senate districts 21 and 22. Governor Youngkin has campaigned for the candidates there. If they can win both those, I think they have a decent chance of holding the House. Probably the Senate district or the House delegate seat that's gotten the most attention is

is District 57, which is the Suzanne Gibson seat. She was a Democrat who did some X-rated things for some extracurricular activities. What I've said about the Gibson seat is sort of the conventional wisdom is she is an underdog in a Biden seat. What I will say is for this

Democrats would very much like to have that seat, but it's not a must win for them. So if they win that one, that's probably a sign that Democrats are really overperforming. And a lot of these seem to be in the outer suburbs. You know, what does that tell you about where Democrats

the cusp is in at least virginia politics and maybe national politics that the inner suburbs seem to be democratic the rural area is safely republican and then you've got fighting in the excerpts what does that say about american politics or at least virginia politics yeah i mean that um it just shows you how the kind of battle lines are really evolving in virginia i mean it's it's you know i i uh

I haven't mentioned the districts in this area yet, but the Fredericksburg area has a few competitive seats in the House of Adele, and State Senate District 27 is there. That's a very close seat. But yeah, it just shows you how those outer suburbs are sort of kind of the new frontier. It's a

It's kind of funny when I was writing about these districts about a month ago, I brought up the Fredericksburg area because kind of like the D.C. suburbs are kind of sprawling out so far into Virginia. These are the areas that are becoming the battleground areas. I said it was ironic that Fredericksburg is kind of one of the key battleground areas in

um in politics but you're back during the civil war it was one of the famous literal uh battlegrounds a little just shows you how kind of the um it's it's um kind of funny because in some ways the electorate is changing in some way it's not because i always describe like the virginia beach area as part of the state where like

Even as Virginia has trended blue, that's one area of the state where they really need to work to kind of make sure it votes for them. There are a number of competitive seats there that have high black populations that...

You know, I think something that they're going to be emphasizing in some of those Virginia Beach area districts with the high minority population, they're going to put more of an emphasis, at least from the Democratic side, on turning out the vote, while in some of these suburban seats, like Senate District 16, maybe they're more reliant on persuasion. So different strategies depending on the constituency.

Well, Miles, are you going to be doing something on election night? And if not, who are you going to be following? So I would be, you know, in terms of...

I'll probably be on Twitter, as I always am on election night. Two recommendations I would make on Virginia politics specifically. One of my go-to sources is a guy named Sam Shirazi. He does a great job of tracking legislative spending,

just giving us his takes on where he thinks all of the districts stand. Joe Szymanski, who writes for Elections Daily, he's very clearly Republican, but he tries to straight shoot, so I appreciate that. And I would say in terms of following Virginia elections, no one can really beat the Virginia Public Access Project, for sure.

Yeah, which is vpap.org, if I remember correctly. Well, Miles, generally, how can people follow your work? Yes, so if you go to centerforpolitics.com backslash crystal ball, that's where you'll see the articles of me, my associate Kyle Condit. It is free. We kind of view this as, or at least at the Center for Politics, we kind of view this as

as a public service. And if you go to Twitter or X, I should say now, at J. Miles Coleman, I'm pretty much on there very often. So if you come tweet at me, it's likely I will see it. Well, it is wonderful to chat with you and I look forward to having you back on Beyond the Polls. All right. Sounds good. Music

This week on Ad of the Week, we're going to look at a segment of the advertising world called the introductory bio ad. Usually, I like to feature what I call persuasion ads, which is ads that are geared towards talking to a segment of the population to persuade them to vote for a candidate, whether in the primary or the general election. But

But to get to the persuasion part of a campaign, you first have to get people to know who you are. And that's what the introductory bio ad is always meant to do. Here's an example from the Republican gubernatorial primary. Let's take a listen. I grew up here, played ball in these streets. But now our streets aren't safe because far-left politicians coddle criminals. I'm Bill Graham.

As a prosecutor, I went after violent criminals. As governor, I'll put them in jail or in the ground. Let's start with the Gang Prevention Task Force, longer sentences for violent crimes, and the death penalty for drug dealers and human traffickers. I'm Bill Graham. Let's kick out the weak politicians and reclaim our streets.

Well, you can see and hear what that's all about. Bill Graham wants Republicans to know that he's tough on crime, that he is a former prosecutor, and that he shares their values, including when he talks about put him under, giving a little knowing look to the camera that lets the

in on the idea that maybe he wouldn't mind if some of these criminals didn't manage to survive contact with the law enforcement.

So, one of the reasons why this is a good ad is that it is a candidate voiceover and often the candidate is on the screen. I'd say Graham is on the screen looking at the camera for about half of the ad. That establishes a personal connection between the viewer and the candidate and also gives them a sense that the candidate is talking to them.

It's also good because it uses visuals, that it uses interesting pictures, pictures of crimes taking place or pictures of criminals who he wants to put in jail. Also, pictures of his name, that his name is often superimposed on images.

The picture when he is talking, I think they could have done more with that aspect that when he's talking about the various policies that he proposes, I think he could have had something like Bill Graham supports or Bill Graham says over the ad space.

That summarize what the policy is, but that's kind of a nitpick. The idea is that he connects his background, former prosecutor with an issue, crime control that we know has a resonance on the value of,

matrix that people care about law and order, and on the policy matrix, there's things you can do to reduce crime. And this is a great way to introduce yourself to North Carolina Republican voters. They will get to know a little bit about Graham. They will get to remember his name, associate them with a worldview and a sense of direction that they will largely share. It's not going to be enough to make him the next nominee, but it's going to be enough to

to help him then launch the next set of ads to introduce him to the Republican primary electorate. How he does in that next set will help determine whether he emerges as a solid, serious challenger or just somebody who's spending too much of his own money. He is supposedly going to be a self-funder in this race in order to make a vain effort. But so far, so good. This looks like a professional effort at introducing a serious man to a wide electorate.

And that's why it's this week's Ad of the Week. That's it for this episode. Join me again in two weeks as pollster Kristen Soltis Anderson and Wisconsin political guru Craig Gilbert bring us up to speed. Until then, let's reach for the stars together as we venture beyond the polls.