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cover of episode From Kennedy to Kardashian: An American Survey

From Kennedy to Kardashian: An American Survey

2024/2/15
logo of podcast Beyond the Polls with Henry Olsen

Beyond the Polls with Henry Olsen
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H
Henry
活跃在房地产投资和分析领域的专业人士，参与多个房地产市场预测和分析讨论。
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Henry: 纽约第三国会选区特别选举民主党候选人Tom Suozzi胜选，投票率和人口统计是关键因素。民主党在特别选举中具有优势，因为许多支持者视特朗普为威胁。尽管民主党在本次选举中表现出色，但这并不预示着他们在11月大选中必然获胜，因为总统大选的投票率会更高。独立选民的投票倾向对大选结果至关重要。虽然这次胜利对民主党来说是积极的信号，但他们仍然需要解决全国范围内存在的大选问题，不能仅仅依靠投票率来获胜，需要更多努力争取选民支持。 Doug Rivers: YouGov采用独特的在线面板方法进行民意调查，通过互联网广告招募大量参与者，并根据人口统计和政治特征选择具有代表性的样本，以解决传统电话调查中响应率低的问题。该方法在全球范围内应用，并通过准确预测选举结果来验证其有效性。YouGov还使用多层次回归和分层后估计（MRP）模型来预测选举结果，该模型比传统的加权方法更准确，尤其是在处理样本中代表性不足的群体时。MRP模型能够利用大量特征来预测各个群体的投票行为，并将其应用于整个人口，从而提高预测的准确性。YouGov正在与媒体合作伙伴合作，利用MRP模型来预测2024年美国大选的结果，包括众议院和参议院的控制权以及选举团的最终结果。 Henry: 罗伯特·肯尼迪的超级碗广告巧妙地利用了怀旧情绪和低制作成本，成功地提高了知名度并获得了大量免费宣传。

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The special election in New York's 3rd Congressional District saw a victory for Democrats, but the implications for the general election in November are mixed. The turnout and demographic advantages for Democrats in this special election may not translate to the higher turnout expected in a presidential election year.

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The days of landline polling are gone forever, the internet has changed everything. This week Henry is joined by Chief Scientist at YouGov and Hoover Institution Senior Fellow Douglas Rivers to discuss the innovative methodological approach he uses to find representative polling samples when much of the electorate is unwilling to respond to polls. Henry also takes a closer look at Tuesday’s special election in New York’s 3rd Congressional District and explains how the good day for Democrats might signal an underlying general election problem for their party. And stay tuned to the end for his take on the Super Bowl ad that got everyone talking about a man named Kennedy.