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cover of episode How Many Tickets Out of Iowa?

How Many Tickets Out of Iowa?

2023/12/7
logo of podcast Beyond the Polls with Henry Olsen

Beyond the Polls with Henry Olsen
AI Deep Dive AI Chapters Transcript
People
H
Henry
活跃在房地产投资和分析领域的专业人士，参与多个房地产市场预测和分析讨论。
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Karlyn Bowman
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Sean Trende
Topics
Henry: 德桑蒂斯与纽森的辩论中，德桑蒂斯对核心保守派共和党人有效，但缺乏灵活性和对非核心选民的吸引力；纽森在镜头前表现出色，但过于自负和回避问题。两者都存在明显的弱点，需要改进才能在未来的总统竞选中取得成功。 Sean Trende: 爱荷华州共和党党团会议中，特朗普领先优势显著，德桑蒂斯等其他候选人翻盘的可能性较小，除非出现大规模选民对特朗普的不满或某个关键议题出现。德桑蒂斯虽然具备一定的条件，但要撼动特朗普的地位仍然非常困难。 Karlyn Bowman: 尽管拜登目前民调支持率低迷，但他仍有可能赢得大选，关键在于能否成功将竞选框架定位为捍卫民主的斗争，并有效应对通货膨胀等问题。拜登需要争取年轻选民、黑人男性和西班牙裔选民的支持，才能扭转目前的劣势。 Henry: 特朗普在爱荷华州的竞选广告使用了爱荷华州州长金·雷诺兹的赞扬性言论，尽管雷诺兹实际上支持德桑蒂斯，这是一种高风险的策略，可能适得其反。

Deep Dive

Chapters
The debate between DeSantis and Newsom is analyzed, focusing on their performance, target audiences, and strategic choices. DeSantis aimed at conservative Republicans, while Newsom targeted Democratic base voters, both missing opportunities to appeal to swing voters.

Shownotes Transcript

As promised, Beyond the Polls is back after just one week away! Henry sits down with RCP's Senior Elections Analyst Sean Trende to discuss the scenarios in the Iowa Caucus that could leave a path for Donald Trump's many Republican challengers. Then he and AEI's Senior Fellow Emerita Karlyn Bowman consider whether and how an extremely unpopular Joe Biden can overcome his grim numbers and win in November.And since it's the season for gifts, Henry has a rant and an ad of the week for you! Get his take on last week's much touted Red State Blue State Debate, along with a review of a puzzling and highly risky ad from the Trump campaign.