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People
H
Henry
活跃在房地产投资和分析领域的专业人士，参与多个房地产市场预测和分析讨论。
K
Kyle
Topics
Henry: 本期节目深入探讨了2024年美国总统大选的最新动态，特别关注内华达州的初选结果对拜登、黑利和特朗普竞选的影响。内华达州初选结果显示，拜登在民主党内拥有稳固的支持率，而黑利在共和党初选中落后于特朗普，这预示着特朗普可能成为共和党最终候选人。此外，节目还分析了加州参议员席位的竞争，以及众议院控制权的争夺。 Kyle: 就众议院选举而言，我分析了近年来总统选举结果与众议院选举结果之间的高度相关性，指出这种相关性正在不断增强，选民越来越倾向于按政党进行投票，而非考虑个体候选人。这种趋势使得预测众议院选举结果变得相对容易，因为我们可以根据总统选举结果来推断众议院选举结果。此外，我还分析了一些关键选区，这些选区的结果将对众议院的最终控制权产生重大影响。

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The Nevada primary, initially seen as insignificant, highlights Joe Biden's strong performance among Democrats, suggesting he faces no serious challenge for the nomination.

Shownotes Transcript

Henry may be off in paradise to cover the Virgin Islands' Republican presidential caucuses, but he's back for another deep dive into American politics. He enjoys what looks at first glance like a nothingburger in Nevada, and lays out what it means for Joe Biden, Nikki Haley and the man who wasn't on the GOP primary ticket. He also breaks down Adam Schiff's tricks to face a Republican for California’s empty Senate seat. And you'll hear about the battle for the House with Sabato’s Crystal Ball managing editor Kyle Kondik.