Utah’s GOP: Nice Guys Finish First?
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Welcome back to Beyond the Polls. This week, I'll speak with political consultant Chuck Warren about Tuesday's Republican primaries in Utah and examine what the ads tell us about competing strategies in South Carolina 3's GOP runoff. Let's dive in. Well, we're kind of in the...

Calm before the storm right now in the presidential race. Everyone knows who the nominees are going to be unless the continuing fevered rumors that Biden might end up dropping out come true. But we have not yet had the conventions. We do not yet have the full campaign agenda.

operations stirring. People are raising money and they're putting ad reservations up. But so what I want to do here is just give some numbers. I want to look at a few different things to set you up with where the state of the race is as we're in the calm before the storm. First of all, Donald Trump leads in the real clear politics average in a two-way race by 0.8 percentage points.

Now, that doesn't seem like a lot, but the fact is Donald Trump never led in the average in 2016. He never led in the average in 2020. Not only does he lead in the average, but he has led every day since October 20th of last year. And those are only days with two ties. Biden has not led since last year on September 11th. This has been a sustained Trump lead.

The other thing I want to note is that Trump leads by a larger margin in the five-way race, which is, say, when you expand the ballot, which is what people will actually see, not two-way, but five-way with minor candidates like Robert F. Kennedy Jr. or Cornel West or Jill Stein for the Greens or Chase Oliver for the Libertarians. Trump's lead is 2.4 points. So what that tells me is that there's going to be people who right now say, I don't want either of them.

but haven't yet decided whether or not they're going to stick with that choice not to vote for one of the two leading candidates. And one way we can see this is that the combined share of the third-party candidates has declined over the last seven months. The share of West, Stein, and Kennedy was 22%.

on November 15th. Today, it is 10.7%. That's still high historically, but it's half what it was as people begin to say, okay, I don't want Trump, I don't want Biden, but I have to choose, and they start to make those choices. The other thing I want to note is that on the five-way race, where people can kind of express their thoughts more directly, Biden's current vote share is exactly what his job approved.

approval rating is 39.9%. Historically, a candidate tends to get within a point of what their final job approval rating is. Now, Trump's

unpopularity suggests that maybe that won't be the case. That's what we see on the two-way race. But on the five-way race, that rule is so far sticking true. What does this mean in the Electoral College? Well, the fact is Donald Trump leads in every swing state on the RealClearPolitics average. It ranges from a low of seven-tenths of a point in Wisconsin to a high in Nevada of over five points.

But the fact is Donald Trump leads in all six states. And what that suggests is that once again, if Donald Trump loses the popular vote by a small margin, somewhere around two to two and a half points,

he should win the electoral college. You see that Trump is ahead by 0.8%. That's a 5.2% shift from 2020 when he lost by 4.4%. The shift in Arizona is larger, or about the same, 4.9%. In Georgia, it's 5%. In Nevada, it's a huge 7.7%. In Michigan, the shift is 3.1%. He's barely ahead now, but he has moved significantly.

So even if Trump is behind by a point or so, he should still win Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, and Pennsylvania if the current state polling averages hold up. And then the final thing I want to look at is the generic congressional vote. You know, there's so many races in this country that you can't poll all of them. But the generic congressional vote is a good predictor of who's going to get the House majority. Right now, the Republicans are ahead by 1.3 points.

That doesn't sound like a lot, but the fact is, let's go back at the last four cycles. Who was ahead at this stage mid-June then, and how did it turn out? Well, in 2022, Republicans were ahead by 3.2 points. They won by 2.8 points. In 2020, Democrats were ahead by 8.5 points. Their margin shrunk, but they won by 3.1 points. In 2018, the great Democratic year, they were ahead by 7. They won by 8.4. Only in 2016 did it shift.

that the Democrats were ahead then by 2.2 points and Republicans won by 1.1 points. Of course, some of that was that they had the House majority and a lot more incumbents, so people split their ticket. They might have voted third party for president, but they stuck with the name they do for the Republican. This suggests a good year, but not a great year for Republicans in the House. But the combination of these things means that as we're in the calm before the storm,

Donald Trump is sitting in a decent but not impregnable position. Joe Biden continues to be mired in low job approval ratings. That is holding him down, particularly when people can see that there are other candidates besides Trump. And whatever is happening with Trump is not dragging the Republican Party down yet.

We've got a long way to go. Things can change. We don't know whether there's going to be October surprises or whatever surprises, but as we sit here in mid-June, the calm before the storm is a red-hued calm, not a blue one.

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Well, it's primary-arama season, and if it's a Tuesday, there must be a primary. This week, there are a number of states that are going to be voting, but we're going to travel to the Beehive State. Yes, the former country of Deseret, the state of Utah. And here to talk with us about the state's very interesting set of Republican primaries is Chuck Warren. He's the host of the

extremely interesting podcast, Breaking Battlegrounds, and president of the September Group, where he acts as a political consultant throughout much of the Rocky Mountain West. Chuck, welcome to Beyond the Polls. Thank you, Henry. Thanks for having me.

Well, you are a Utah of, I hope I pronounced that correctly, of longstanding. And you've got a lot of interesting races, starting with the premier race, who is going to be the next Republican senator from Utah to replace the retiring Mitt Romney. Could you tell us a little bit about that race and where you think it stands? I think the first most interesting point about that race is how many people did not want to run for it.

I mean, there was quite the bench to run for, and it's amazing how many of them didn't want to go back to Washington. Interesting. And it really was the don't go back to Washington. It was the I don't want to go back to Washington. And think about that in this particular culture. With the LDS culture, whether you're LDS, whether you're active LDS or not. And for our non-LDS listeners. That's Mormons, Mormons. And so...

You know, you are you know, somebody who's gone and served a two year church mission. Right. Service is a big deal in Utah. And the fact that they just said there's just other things I can do to be helpful and going to D.C. is not one of them. It was it was very it was a very fascinating time. And I had many conversations with friends and donors who were surprised there weren't more people.

who decided to jump at this once-in-a-lifetime opportunity. I had friends in their late 40s, early 50s who were great, self-made, money. And the conversation was, if I don't run now, that's last because the next person ends there for three terms or more. And so a lot of people just said, no, I've always wanted to do it, but apparently it's not going to happen because I don't want to go deal with D.C.

And before we get to the specifics of the race, how much of that was fear of the Trump endorsement? Utah is not a particularly Trump-friendly state among Republicans in the fall.

firehouse primary, the expanded caucus that was held on Super Tuesday, Nikki Haley got 42% of the vote. She might have won a fully open, fully staffed primary, but that's one of her highest totals outside of a very moderate state. How much did it play into people's minds of

Yeah, you know, maybe I can win, but I really don't want to go to war with Trump and the faction. No one I talked to, and these are good Republicans, these are donors, they're successful men and women, no one was concerned about getting or not getting a Trump endorsement because while it's a helpful endorsement,

And it was helpful. We'll talk about Trent Staggs in the convention. It doesn't carry the same weight as it does in other red states. It never once came up. No one really was concerned about it whatsoever. So you referenced the convention, and Utah has a very interesting system of how to –

structure the nominating process. Could you walk us through the relationship between the convention and the party endorsement and the primary and how that winnows people in or winnows them out?

Well, it used to mean a lot. When I first started as a young lad, you know, it took you had to get 60 or 70 percent of the convention. It changed every so often. If you got 60 percent or 70 percent, you were the sole Republican nominee. We didn't have primaries, really. And then and then if you were the top two, then you go on to our primary together. And what happened is Mike Leavitt, the convention systems like all activist related convention.

institutions. Some years, there seems to be big participation. Recently, those numbers have dwindled. So what has happened is you're more enthusiastic Republicans.

your more enthusiastic MAGA-type people are the only ones that show up. I think this year was the lowest total of convention participation by, it was cut half when Hatch first ran and was very active in the party by the number of people who went. I mean, Hatch doubled the caucus attendees. And what's happened is, you know, 10, 20 years ago, the governors and the senior senator would take great interest in the party. They would help fund it.

That's not happened in the last three or four election cycles. So now it's, you know, your diehards, your people who are social media warriors. It was a horribly run convention this year. It went to midnight. It lasted like 14 hours. People left a third of the day before they had the final votes for U.S. Senate.

At least a third of the delegates had gone home. So what is the system now? You know, obviously, you don't have to be in the top two to make the primary. I understand that you can buy that. You can do signatures. Yes, you can do signatures, which most of them do. The ones who have money...

can raise it or personal resources, most of them just go gather signatures now. Even if they think they're going to win the convention or do well at it, they still go gather signatures. And there's been times the last couple of cycles where there have been incumbents who sort of ignored that and barely got out of convention. So now pretty much everybody who has resources

or can raise him, will go gather signatures and also do the convention process. Yeah, and we'll talk about that when we get to the Utah 2 primary because it almost tripped up an incumbent there. But tell us a little bit about the convention and who got winnowed in and who avoided it entirely to simply go the signature route to set up the primary race that we have.

Well, you go. So Trent Staggs, who's been running for a year plus, and he deserves credit because he's worked hard. He's worked the grassroots hard and he's worked hard to bring in the MAGA crowd. He's brought in Tommy Tuberville, Matt Gates, Carrie Lake. And the morning of the convention around 7 a.m., Trump endorsed him.

What's interesting about that, because the delegates are a Trump crowd, on the first round of balloting, Trent Staggs only got 42% of the vote.

Which was remarkable. I mean, that will show you the power, even within our truly active, energetic activist community. It didn't get him over 50 on the first round. So, trench tags end up getting 70. And again, a lot of that, if you talk to other campaigns and people not affiliated with it, it's because a third to 40% of the delegates just went home before the final vote. So, he ended up at 70%. He was only playing the convention, by the way. He did not gather signatures. Right.

So, he got out as the official Republican Party nominee. And then you had Brad Wilson, the former speaker, who also gathered signatures. You have Congressman John Curtis in Utah CD3, and we'll talk about that seat a little bit more. You have a gentleman, Walton, who's a wealthy executive of a pest control company.

And that's it. And they kicked off a couple of other candidates who didn't have the resources like Carolyn Phippen, Brent Hatch, who easily had the resources but started late on signature gathering, did not qualify. And then just people knew he didn't qualify and he just got slaughtered at convention. And he was a son of Orrin Hatch. So right now you have basically four people running.

And the primary is it would be stunning if John Curtis does not win this primary by 20 points or more. And why is that? All the polls have said that. In fact, in Washington, we started hearing that Speaker Wilson, Speaker of the House Wilson, who was.

spending a lot of money has pulled back his ads, which is always the end that if I'm not going to win, I'm not going to waste this cash. How did John Curtis build himself into easily the favorite despite Donald Trump endorsing Trent Stacks? Well, first of all, John Curtis is, is a good Congressman. He's great at constituent service. Second of all, he's well-liked as a person. Again,

I think what's happened in the last three election cycles, we forget

that if you're a candidate people like, it's helpful in an election, right? I mean, there's no one who would not meet John Kurtz and say, I don't like him. And he seems to be bright. He was a very good mayor in Provo. He had business experience. And he jumped on it early. Silicon Slopes, which Utah has a very vibrant tech and startup tech community and venture capital community, they got behind him early and started doing IE spending on TV.

And it just he just he built a good buffer. But he started out at 28. He just was a name who was known because no other will well-known people step forward. He had that advantage to begin with. Now, some people say, well, that speaker will say no one knows who their speaker is. I mean, it's it's it's the biggest foolhardy thing in politics that legislators and speakers think people know him.

And he found that out quickly. And, you know, he spent, I think he has spent 2.5 or 3 million of his own money. And you're right, he has cut back on his TV and other spending right now. You know, talking to other campaigns, it sounds like he has just simply thrown in the hat.

So, you know, one of the things about Utah is it is still a small state. It's obviously growing quickly. And but you've got two things that I think might have helped Curtis. One is there's only four congressmen. So we represented a quarter of the state and more than a quarter of the Republicans because his is one of the more Republican seats.

And because of the gerrymander that was passed there, he, like everyone else, had a share of Salt Lake County, which it was allowed to be its own district, which it could be. It would elect the Democrats or Republicans split it up four ways, which means that he was advertising in the Salt Lake media market, which covers most of the not all of it, but most of the rest of the Republican voters who aren't in his congressional district.

Could somebody theoretically have beaten him who wasn't already a sitting congressman, given that or, you know, the governor, who is obviously not like another statewide official. People know who the governor is. Right. Aside from another congressman or the governor, could he have lost? Well, he could have. But again, it all depends upon the candidate. He he I can't express enough that people like him as a person.

And that matters in Utah. And there's one thing about Utah that people do not, even within Utah, don't pay enough attention to. Because it is an active church-going community, word spreads fast. It's a domino effect, right? Everybody knows somebody in another Mormon ward in another city who knows somebody who knows somebody. So there really is sort of this...

Three, four, five degree of separation. Right. So he always he's always had this reputation of just a very good man who was dutiful in his job. Right. And so that helps. It also helps him that he was seen as conservative, but he was not seen as part of Trump's right about everything.

Doesn't mean John doesn't vote with Donald Trump most the time. He's actually quite conservative But he didn't have that and that's an appeal there's like, you know, you know their poll came out or 42 or 43 percent of voters I saw this week came out said that it doesn't matter if Donald Trump endorses or not They don't care and 19 percent republicans said they're less likely to support support somebody who Trump's endorses So you've got almost 60 percent. It just doesn't mean anything right and

And so Utah does like their independence. And I will say this, some will disagree. If Mitt Romney had really put the money in, collected the signatures around again, he would have won.

He just didn't want to deal with it. By the end of the day, he would have won. People forget, he didn't win convention when he ran the first time. Yeah. So he would have won that. So it's a different type of Republican in Utah. They don't want to seem beholden to certain segments of the party. What people also don't realize is,

You know, this is long ago history, but Utah had most of its elected officials were Democrats until Reagan was elected. Reagan really is the one that flipped the state. And if you talk to most Republicans, they'll tell you, I'm a Reagan Republican. They still go that way. So, you know, this is the type of state when the Iraq war was at its lowest in public opinion, there were still 52% of Utahns who supported the war.

It's a different ballgame out there. They want the border tightened, but they want more moderate immigration reform because most Mormon families have had a family member or friend who served a mission overseas. They're not scared of people outside the United States border. So it's a different type of Republican in a lot of ways. Culturally, it aligns with other evangelical groups, but I mean, I think abortions like

number nine or ten on the list for people there. It's just, that's not the issue. They're looking more at economics, looking more religious freedom, more America standing in the world. It's a very patriotic, it's a very patriotic state. I don't think most Republicans I've talked to do not, and under any circumstance, no matter who's talking, they do not like American elected officials saying America's not great. It's a real bugaboo with them.

Right. Because they make something great again. That's already great. Yeah. They just, you know, and people don't understand, you know, Mormons view America as a chosen land. It's no different than Jewish people view Israel, you know. And so that's a big deal. And I don't think enough politicians, especially in the Trump world, understand that. And that plays a real role because what you could see.

In LDS Utah voting behaviors, you can see in LDS voting behaviors in Nevada, in Arizona, and they need to turn out enthusiastically for Donald Trump. And if they do, he'll win those states. But there's going to be the same resistance there that you had in Utah. I mean, I noticed in the Idaho caucuses, which is even lower turnout than the firehouse primary, that Haley got wiped out, as you might expect. But she did reasonably well.

given that it was a caucus where you sit down for a couple of hours in the southeastern counties that are substantially Mormon, which presaged how we would do next week. So just because they don't live in Utah doesn't mean that Mormons in Nevada and Arizona won't be going through the same, can I do this? Yeah, and what's interesting about it is when Trump ran in 16, Ted Cruz, I think, got 65 or 70% of the caucus votes.

Yeah, I think John Kasich finished second. I think Trump finished second.

Probably. Well, I mean, maybe rural Alabama, but you know what I mean? I mean, that's just, you know, I mean, it's just stunningly low. They just view him as completely an incompetent and bad person. And so that doesn't mean they love that doesn't mean they love Trump, but they're just saying, I ain't putting this guy back in.

Which is why the most recent poll had Bobby Kennedy Jr. running even with Biden at 20 percent in Utah. Yeah. Yeah. It's incredible. People don't like Trump but will never vote for Biden. Let's move on to one of the congressional primaries that Utah, too, is a race that shouldn't be happening. You had Celeste Malloy, who came in and won a pretty serious primary in the special election, should have waltzed home.

And she'll probably, well, you know, win by a pretty large margin, but she almost got herself out of the race by one of these modes of overconfidence. Can you explain why and tell me what is going to happen with the primary challenge that she, through her error, actually helped enable? Well, she's running against a very competent candidate named Colby Jenkins who has the endorsement of Mike Lee.

And Colby was 20 years in the military, a ranger, did special missions in Central America. I believe he served in the White House, National Security. I mean, I met with him. He is an extremely competent man, but he has definitely taken the isolationist view, which

would surprise people because you meet him he's a very mellow human being i mean but you know he's he's the type of person you wish we had more of just his background in congress i mean his one daughter's at west point his other daughter's married to a navy seal i mean we need more people with that type of public service environment in right but he has decided to go the whole mike lee route and mike's endorsed him and really given his all celeste while she won that special election um

Look, there's a lot of hostile feelings towards her still. She, you know, the lieutenant governor office in Utah gave her a pass. She should not have been on the ballot. She did not meet the qualifications. And people are very angry about it. And there's still probably a third of primary voters are still mad about it. But with Trump coming out and endorsing her and Cox endorsing her, and what she's done is this, is that Utah CD2 has some rural counties that...

that when she did the special election, the reason she won that special election is that she built up margins of 800 to 1500 in each of those six or seven rural counties. I mean, she just built a significant margin and cushion in those counties. I expect the same thing to happen again. And people, someone had this argument with me this morning. They said, well, those are real conservative people. No, they're like Dakota conservative people. They still depend on the federal government a lot. There's a lot of public lands.

There's a lot of public federal jobs. They're not the type of Republicans that you think there are. Government is important in those areas. And she took over for Congressman Stewart, who was just marvelous at constituent service. And that infrastructure he built just got transferred to her.

So I see her winning. The Trump endorsement probably put an exclamation point on it to tell some people who may have been uncomfortable with her that it's OK. And again, it's funny. She didn't support Trump in 16. I mean, it's just politics. It's just weird, right? What happens today doesn't mean anything tomorrow. And that's what's happened with her. But she'll she'll win that race.

But the thing is, she almost didn't make it on the ballot because she didn't go the signature route. And if you don't go the signature route, you have to get 40 percent in the convention. And she only got 43. She was only a few votes away from being an incumbent who didn't make it for her own reelection because of overconfidence. Well, and this is and this again goes to politicians really not doing it.

Full view of the land. You know, she did well at convention, and I believe she won convention because a gentleman in St. George, Jordan Hess, dropped out and endorsed her at the convention that put her over the top. Okay, so she won convention.

For some reason, she thought that would translate. But all the things about her not voting for Trump, her not being a resident of the state when she filed, all these things came out after the convention. And you're talking about the convention in 2020. Yeah, the special election. Why someone didn't tell her the dynamics then versus now were totally different sort of boggles my mind. It's basically malpractice because she should have just collected signatures because there's some real hurt feelings there.

Oh, yeah. Well, let's move to the big kahuna, and that's the race to succeed. Representative Curtis, Utah 3 looks to be a rural district if you look at it on a map, because it's got a lot of the eastern territory, all of the eastern border with Wyoming and I think Colorado too, but I'm not sure. But

86% of the vote is in Utah County, which is south of Salt Lake City and Salt Lake County. So it's an urban district masquerading as a rural district. 100%. 100%. Who are the candidates? And I haven't seen any public polls. Maybe you have, or maybe you've seen private polls. Who are the candidates? No one had done, which is funny. I think the only one that may have done one is Case Lawrence, who's put $2.5 million into it. Look, there's two people who are going to win this. It's either going to be Mike Kennedy...

A Utah State representative who's a doctor. Everybody likes him. Great guy. The conservative wing really likes him. A fantastic gentleman. And he's a doctor. And then Case Lawrence, who's an entrepreneur, built a bunch of fun parks and things of that nature. Everybody else, you know, they're just sort of there right now. Not that they're not good people. But for example, John Dougal is the auditor of the state.

And John basically in 2020 got the most votes any Republicans ever got statewide. For some reason, he decided that that would make him the heir apparent. But voting for auditor is a down ballot, purely partisan race versus running in the primary with competitive Republican opponents. And John Dougal, which is interesting for you to see, this will be really interesting for you to follow, Henry. He has come out very much anti-Trump. He's called him a seditionist.

He's not going to follow Baga. He's an independent conservative. And John is an old school conservative.

Libertarian, fiscal responsible, conservative. But he has come out totally against the whole MAGA experience. So, you know, what was once a campaign that could have caught some fire, I don't see it doing much, but it'll be interesting to see what percentage of vote he gets. Right, you know, you talk, no one really knows who's going to win that race, but they do say it will be between Case and Mike Kennedy.

Case is an entrepreneur, has spent over two and a half million dollars, as you said. You know, Kennedy has spent a fair amount of money, but nothing close to that. And much of his state Senate district is not in the congressional district. Yes, it is.

And then you've got the two other candidates kind of stand out. I'm putting Stuart Pei or Stuart Pei. I'm not sure how to pronounce his name to the side. That's Pei. OK. And that's let's start with the mayor of Roosevelt, the only one who actually comes from the rural part of the district to Kane County, Pennsylvania.

Or Duchesne County. I'm not sure how to pronounce that. I should have asked. It's Duchesne County. OK. Yeah. You know, first, J.R. Byrd, who's this candidate, he was originally going to run for Senate. What he told everybody is to put a million dollars in and run for Senate. And then the next thing you know, he's running for the third congressional district. He just has not caught fire. There's just he's not going to win this race. The key is, does he get fourth or fifth?

Yeah, and the interesting thing about Frugal Dougal, to use the nickname that he actually somehow got on the ballot, is two things. You know, one is he is a former state rep from Utah County, which is so to the extent there's residual name identification, he's got the largest chunk. Correct. And then you've got that interesting counterplay, is that I've always been surprised that more people don't do this in Utah.

primaries like Utah, where there's not going to be runoff. All you need to do is get one vote more than the other person. There's a non, the rural part of the count of the district, which will cast 15% of the votes or so, is overwhelmingly conservative. So he's not going to do well out in Wasatch or Uinta or any of those places. But

Becky Edwards, the moderate who ran against Mike Lee for Senate and then was the main competitor to Celeste Malloy in the other district, got 41 percent of the Republican primary vote in Salt Lake County, 28 percent in Utah County, 25 percent in Wasatch County, 38 percent in Summit County.

Is he is he like somebody is he stupid or is he smart like a fox? Which is to say I can't win the conservative battle with Kennedy and Lawrence How about I aim for the Edwards vote and hope that 30% gets me over the top? I don't think he's thought of it that way. He really has a distaste for January 6 in the whole MAGA movement.

And Becky Edwards percentage of Salt Lake County is the most liberal part of Salt Lake County. I mean, Becky Edwards, you know, she always had her cap. That was what's going to happen. You know, she's this great white hope. What Becky Edwards always was the great white hope of the teachers unions and Democrats who switch party affiliation and primaries.

So Becky's not a good example that way. John was seen as very conservative with the Libertarian bet. He's done a fantastic job as auditor. He's really been a watchdog for the taxpayer. I'm surprised, like John, he's a personal friend. I'm surprised he's not done more just the fiscal watchdog. I think that is a message that frankly could have caught fire. And I don't know if it's because of resources or because he got distracted with the Trump campaign.

angle. I don't know. But he really did have that. I mean, he could have owned that corner. And that's a big deal in Utah. I mean, if you look every year, Utah's number one or two and having their fiscal house in order. I mean, balancing your budget's a big deal to these people, especially with government officials. So I don't know why he didn't take that angle. I think right now he just wants to show he's an independent conservative and he's not going to become groupthink.

Well, it'll be interesting to see whether he shocks everybody, but we'll be looking. One of the things about Utah is that it's a very Republican state that is overwhelmingly mail ballot friendly. Yes, it has been for a long time. Yes. And so and you also, I believe, have somewhat liberal mail ballot laws that allow ballots that arrive after Election Day.

Yes, yes. It takes a little too long. I know they've been trying to close that, not because they're fearful of mail-in ballots, but it's like, oh, come on, we've got to have a decision here in 48 hours. I know when Mia Love lost her election, her re-election in 20, she, it took like,

six days or eight days to determine if she lost or not. Oh, yeah. No, I remember following that. Yeah, so it's just, you know, it's a bit ridiculous. I mean, but no one's saying get rid of mail ballots in Utah. It's just never going to happen. They have an experience. No one's claiming fraud. It's hard for

people who say that mail balloting is fraudulent when the state's completely red and, you know, Democrats basically don't exist. So, you know, they're obviously not very good at fraud in Utah if it's being done. Well, has anybody made the Mormon argument is, you know, how can you have fraud with such nice church-going people? You know, they never do it. Yeah, it's just, they've always liked it. I mean, we actually had a contract when Thomas Wright was state chair that

He really pushed us before it became common to go to Republican households and have them sign up for mail ballot. He spent money on it because he kept feeling we're getting out hustled this way. So he picked it up and he picked up two or three seats that were in Democrats hands. And that's a big part. Republicans have a super majority. You have a month to turn people out. Well, what that means, though, is that if this is like we're going through this race in Virginia, which is within 300 votes.

And Virginia doesn't have a lot of mail-in ballots, but anything that's received by noon on Friday can count, so nobody can call the race. If it's close in Utah, we may very well have six, seven, eight, nine days. Oh, yes. Oh, yes. Yes, yes, yes. Now, you'll have a week, week and a half. It's painful. I've been through this twice now in Utah. And it really does, you know, look, I just simply think on the mail-in ballot, if you really want, I don't want to get rid of mail-in balloting. I don't think it's evil like people think.

promote. But I do think you got to say you got to be postmarked by the Saturday before election. I mean, this is just this is just silly waiting this long. Yeah. I mean, plenty of states like Florida say, OK, we're going to have a lot of mail in ballots, but it has to be received. Right. Right. So people can walk in their mail in ballots if they are afraid about it. But that comes in later. There's a lot of way to handle mail in ballots. And

Utah has chosen not, you know, and the other thing is Utah has competent agencies. It's not like California where you have a long post-election receipt period and you have the slowest count process of any in the country. Yeah, you know, it's, I wish the past...

Two years plus, we have been talking more how to make it more efficient versus, you know, demeaning everybody who votes a certain way. You know, and, you know, what's funny about the point is conservatives always talk about when you give a new government program, it never goes away. Why do you think they're going to take away mail and balloting from people? People don't want to get rid of it. No. I mean, it's just it's a it's a silly thing.

Well, Chuck, where can people follow you? Do you have an active, besides listening to Breaking Battlegrounds and downloading the podcast, do you have other methods to disseminate your viewpoints? Yeah, you can visit us at BreakingBattlegrounds.vote or you can contact me at SeptemberGroupLLC.com and you can email us from there.

Well, it's wonderful chatting with you, and I look forward to talking all things Rocky Mountain States with you again on Beyond the Polls. Thank you, my friend. Have a good day.

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for free. Go to ChumbaCasino.com to collect your free welcome bonus. Sponsored by Chumba Casino. No purchase necessary. VGW Group. Void where prohibited by law. 18 plus terms and conditions apply. Well, ads are never cut in isolation. They're always...

facing other ads from other candidates. And so what I want to do today is play two ads that are currently running in the South Carolina 3rd Congressional District. This features a runoff between the people who finished in number one and number two position in the recent primary, and that's Mark Burns and Sherry Biggs. So let's first listen to the appeal that Mr. Burns is making, and then we will listen to the appeal that Ms. Biggs is making.

Are you outraged by Biden and his Hitchman rigged trial and verdict against our president? Fed up and ready to make your voice heard? You don't have to wait till November, you can vote now for me, the only Trump endorsed candidate in this race. Don't be confused why other candidates in this race say they support Trump. I'm the only one Trump supports. Electing me will send a strong message to every liberal Democrat that you've had enough and you stand with President Trump.

It's always been a spiritual war from the beginning of time. And we need people who are going to stand up for what is correct and right. I have met Sherry. She's a lovely, sincere person, I believe. She is not afraid to say that she trusts in God to lead her. She serves our country. She's a mother. She cares for her family. And I'm trusting Sherry to do the job that needs to be done.

I'm Sherry Biggs and I approve this message. Well, the Burns appeal is one that you would expect in a Republican primary. This is Trump, Trump, Trump. If you love you some Trump, you ought to love you some Mark Burns.

It's a low production quality ad. By that, you have a candidate who's speaking direct to camera, but he's got an out-of-focus capital in the background. He's got the mic visible when he is talking to the camera. It's not bad, but most candidates have higher production quality. It looks sharper. But

And he's just hitting you over the head with it. He's got Donald Trump pictures when he's talking about Donald Trump. He's got a picture of Trump on the airplane. He's got a picture of Trump with cabinet officials. He ends with a couple of pics with him and Donald Trump, including one where they're doing a grip and grin, which is where they're looking at the camera and shaking hands. It's completely clear that he's telling people in this district, if you love Trump, you should love me and vote for me.

So case closed. Mark Burns is the next congressman because we all know this stuff, right? Well, the fact is, in the first round, he did come in first, but very narrowly over Sherry Biggs. Sherry Biggs is somebody who has the endorsement of the governor of the state. And in the primary, she ran television ads with Governor McMaster endorsing her. But she's choosing a very different category.

tack here. Here, she's appealing to the very large number of Christian conservatives in the district. It's a testimonial from an older woman, Joyce from Central Carolina is what the name is on the camera, but

It starts with a Bible open to a section of the Bible. I didn't catch which one, but it's sharp enough focus that you can very clearly see that it's a Bible. The woman is wearing a cross pendant. She talks about the culture, and she says that Sherry is somebody who isn't afraid to say that she trusts in God.

Then you have the endorsement of Sherry, where she's talking with Joyce. And there's little things that I like about this ad. Not only does it have, like Burns' ad, the name in the ad. So while Mark Burns is talking or while he's showing a picture of Trump, it says Burns for Congress in one corner. They have the same thing with Biggs, where Biggs is named on the ad screen while Joyce has the voiceover.

But you I believe Biggs is a veteran. There's combat boots on her logo. So if you're interested in having a veteran serve you in Congress, is that subtle? And then in the background of Joyce's kitchen or not kitchen dining room where she's talking, there's a folded flag there.

And I'm not sure whether that's a folded flag that's the sort that's presented to a widow of a combat veteran or if that's a folded flag that just happens to be folded that way. But whether you're patriotic or whether you're a veteran, there's a subtle message there.

The reason I think this is an interesting race is because you've got two theories of the case going. One person wants to be the MAGA candidate. The other person wants to be the Christian conservative candidate. And it's kind of ironic because Burns is actually a pastor. He could be making that argument, but he's going with what he thinks is the stronger argument. And what we saw in the Alabama Senate primary,

in 2022 is that Mo Brooks' representative started with Donald Trump's endorsement and started with the lead. And a woman named Katie Boyd-Brett, who was well-connected, could raise a lot of money, but nobody knew her because she had never run for office before,

essentially ran as a Christian conservative, talked a lot about her faith, had a lot of ads cut that prominently displayed her wearing a cross pendant, and she came up from behind. And by the spring, after a while of doing this, she was beating Brooks, and Trump pulled his endorsement. I'm not saying that Trump is going to pull his endorsement for Burns. I don't think that's going to happen. But I think what that race showed is that the Christian conservative argument was,

is viewed credibly even in the face of a Donald Trump endorsement. So I don't know who's going to win this race, but I do think that it's going to be an interesting race and that both candidates in their ads have shown that they're targeting maybe overlapping but differently motivated sets of constituents in this largely rural or suburban district. And that's why these two ads are the ads of the week.

That's it for this week. Join me next week when I'll interview the past head of the American Association of Political Consultants, Becky Donatelli, about the evolution and secrets of online fundraising. Until then, let's reach for the stars together as we journey beyond the polls.

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