David and Tamler talk about two famous puzzles that for different reasons have bedeviled the rationalist community – The Monty Hall Problem and Newcomb’s “paradox.” Why is it so hard for people to see that a 66% chance of winning a car is better than a 33% chance? Why do famous mathematicians struggle with this problem? And David and Tamler split on the Newcomb case – can you guess which one of us is the one boxer?
Plus since we’re basically a TV recap podcast now, some thoughts on White Lotus Season 3.
The White Lotus) [imdb.com]
Monty Hall Problem) [wikipedia.org]
Numberphile on the Monty Hall Problem) [youtube.com]
Newcomb's "Paradox") [wikipedia.org]
Nozick, R. (1969). Newcomb’s problem and two principles of choice.) In Essays in honor of carl g. hempel: A tribute on the occasion of his sixty-fifth birthday (pp. 114-146). Dordrecht: Springer Netherlands.
