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cover of episode 324: 2025 predictions with Dave Kellogg: The Future of AI, SaaS, and Business

324: 2025 predictions with Dave Kellogg: The Future of AI, SaaS, and Business

2025/2/24
logo of podcast AI and the Future of Work

AI and the Future of Work
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Dan Turchin
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Dave Kellogg
一位拥有超过25年软件行业经验的著名SaaS专家和商业领袖，曾任多家知名公司的CEO和高级管理人员。
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Dave Kellogg: 我对2024年的预测相当准确，尤其是在RAG和AI驱动的SDR方面。AI驱动的SDR帮助我们更好地理解AI在销售工作中的作用。我的失误在于对期权定价和播客热度的预估。对AI炒作周期的预测并非简单地认为AI很流行，而是对炒作周期模型的具体分析。搜索引擎将从提供链接转向提供答案，这对营销人员来说至关重要。搜索引擎结果将呈现赢家通吃的局面。公关将成为新的SEO，因为在LLM结果中排名靠前需要在权威媒体上获得品牌提及。品牌是产品差异化的最后堡垒，在同质化竞争中至关重要。在后真相时代，内容同质化加剧，品牌建设变得更加困难。品牌建设是一个长期过程，不能作为短期问题的解决方案。我对数据库的预测减少是因为对专用数据库的未来发展感到些许失望，通用数据库管理系统（DBMS）正在不断吸收专用数据库的功能。ETL流程将被AI代理或协同驾驶员所颠覆。Spark的性能问题可能会被新的、兼容的Spark版本所解决。美国在AI领域的投资远超欧洲，这与两地监管环境和人才储备有关。AI监管可能会对美国和欧洲的AI发展产生不同的影响。LinkedIn正在走向社交媒体的衰落周期，因为它过度关注用户参与度。“40法则”作为SaaS公司衡量增长和盈利能力的指标将继续存在。“X法则”是对“40法则”的改进，更能反映增长和利润之间的关系。AI驱动的市场营销工具将有助于降低销售和营销成本。 Dan Turchin: 我同意Dave Kellogg关于搜索引擎将更注重提供答案而非链接的观点。我也关注到AI在销售和营销中的应用，以及品牌建设在当前环境中的重要性。同时，我也对LinkedIn未来的发展以及“40法则”的持续适用性表示担忧。

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Dave Kellogg is a seasoned venture capitalist, serial tech executive, and one of the most respected voices in SaaS metrics. As an Entrepreneur in Residence at Balderton Capital, he brings decades of experience leading companies like Host Analytics, Salesforce, MarkLogic, and Business Objects (acquired by SAP). A sought-after speaker, Dave’s SaaStr talks consistently rank among the most watched, and he’s known for his bold predictions and sharp analysis of industry trends. He is also an advisor, director, blogger, and podcaster, sharing insights that shape the future of SaaS and enterprise software.

 

In this conversation, we discuss:

  • Dave Kellogg’s bold predictions for 2025 and how he scored himself on last year’s forecasts, from AI’s continued hype cycle to the rise of PR as the new SEO.
  • Why venture capital is evolving, with AI-first companies reshaping funding strategies and a widening gap between US and European investment trends.
  • The future of search—why traditional SEO may be dying and how businesses must adapt to AI-driven content discovery.
  • The unlikely revival of branding—how companies are rediscovering brand differentiation in a "sea of sameness" where SaaS products look increasingly alike.
  • AI’s impact on SaaS metrics and go-to-market strategies—can AI-driven sales and marketing tools help companies achieve the Rule of 40?
  • The future of LinkedIn and social media in business—Dave’s concerns about LinkedIn’s engagement-driven model and why it might be entering the "social media death cycle."

Resources:

  • Subscribe to the AI & The Future of Work Newsletter)
  • Connect with Dave Kellogg on LinkedIn)
  • AI fun fact article)
  • On How AI is Making Networks Smart)