A Stratechery, Sharp Tech, and Sharp China Crossover on the Chip Ban, Taiwan, TikTok and More
Sharp Tech with Ben Thompson
Deep Dive
Why has the chip ban mobilized an all-of-nation approach in China?
The chip ban, starting with ZTE and Huawei under the Trump administration and continuing under Biden, has forced China to focus on de-Americanizing its tech stack. This has led to a national effort involving government, investors, companies, and the public to reduce dependence on U.S. technology.
What are the potential long-term consequences of China's de-Americanization of its tech stack?
China's de-Americanization could dominate the trailing edge of chip production, making it a global leader in less advanced chips used in cars and appliances. This could weaken TSMC and other competitors while increasing global dependence on China. Additionally, it could eventually threaten U.S. leadership in advanced chip technology.
How has the U.S. chip ban affected China's semiconductor industry in the short term?
The U.S. chip ban has set China back in terms of advanced chip production but has also motivated China to focus on mastering older technologies and gradually moving up the production chain. This could lead to long-term self-sufficiency in chip manufacturing.
What is the significance of Huawei's role in China's response to the chip ban?
Huawei has become a major beneficiary of the chip ban, receiving significant government support. The company is pushing its own AI chips and frameworks, aiming to weaken NVIDIA's ecosystem and establish a proprietary alternative to CUDA.
Why might China's approach to AI development be less effective than expected?
China's AI development is hindered by censorship and the need to align AI outputs with socialist core values. The fragmented and censored nature of Chinese internet data also complicates the training of large language models, making it harder to compete with Western AI advancements.
What is the current sentiment around TikTok in the U.S. government?
The U.S. government is divided on TikTok, with Republicans like Representative Gallagher pushing for a ban, while Democrats are hesitant due to concerns about alienating young voters. TikTok's extensive lobbying efforts have also influenced the debate, making a ban unlikely before the 2024 election.
How does the U.S. government's handling of TikTok compare to its approach to the chip ban?
The U.S. government has taken a more decisive stance on the chip ban, viewing it as a critical national security issue. In contrast, TikTok's potential ban is complicated by political considerations, lobbying efforts, and concerns about its impact on young voters, leading to a less clear-cut policy decision.
What is the potential impact of the U.S.-China AI working group on tech restrictions?
The AI working group could serve as a forum for China to push for relief from U.S. tech restrictions, allowing it more time to develop indigenous technologies. However, this does not mean China will abandon its long-term goals of self-reliance in semiconductors and AI.
How might the recent political developments in Taiwan affect U.S.-China relations?
The combination of opposition candidates in Taiwan's election could reduce tensions around the election, potentially leading to a brief stabilization in U.S.-China relations. However, long-term risks, particularly around Taiwan's status, remain a significant concern.
What are the broader implications of China's economic challenges for its relationship with the U.S.?
China's economic struggles, combined with the deteriorating U.S.-China relationship, have spooked foreign businesses, leading to reduced investment. Stabilizing the relationship could help ease some of these concerns and encourage renewed foreign investment in China.
- The hosts discuss their experiences hosting Sharp Tech and Sharp China, including unexpected expertise in certain areas and the surprising popularity of Ben Thompson.
- Andrew Sharp discusses his increased fluency in technology and the unexpected amount of time spent talking about streaming and entertainment.
- Bill Bishop discusses his experience adopting the mantle of "takes man" for Sharp China and the evolution of his China coverage from a niche interest to a broader audience.
Shownotes Transcript