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cover of episode (Preview) Justice for Software Engineers, The Various Futures of Vibe Coding, Questions at xAI and Progress for Tesla

(Preview) Justice for Software Engineers, The Various Futures of Vibe Coding, Questions at xAI and Progress for Tesla

2025/6/24
logo of podcast Sharp Tech with Ben Thompson

Sharp Tech with Ben Thompson
AI Deep Dive AI Chapters Transcript
People
A
Andrew Sharp
B
Ben (邮件作者)
B
Ben Thompson
创立并运营订阅式新闻稿《Stratechery》，专注于技术行业的商业和策略分析。
Topics
Ben (邮件作者): 我认为软件工程师不会消失。我在硅谷经营一家科技公司，一直在招聘工程师。软件开发与所有其他类型开发的主要区别在于，主要的约束是复杂性，而不是物理。即使AI使工程师的效率提高10倍、100倍甚至1000倍，你仍然有动力尽可能多地雇用工程师，因为产品路线图是无限的。一家优秀的技术公司永远不会耗尽需要构建的东西，因为那是他们赚钱的杠杆。只要你的竞争对手在软件能力上与你竞争，你就会有动力去构建更多的能力。总会有人需要将这些想法和能力转化为可用的产品，即使只是输入提示，那也需要工作。软件工程师万岁！ Ben Thompson: 我基本上同意软件工程师不会消失的观点，人类有能力创造需要解决的问题。然而，公司的成功不仅仅取决于软件能力，还取决于分发和整合等因素。公司可能会因为没有更好的投资方向而增加股票回购，而不是雇佣更多工程师。短期内，我们仍然需要工程师，因为许多AI项目仍处于理论和演示阶段，实际复杂性很高。过度依赖AI可能会导致技术债务，长期来看会得不偿失。自动化对制造业和农业的影响表明，白领工作也可能面临类似的情况。 Andrew Sharp: 我更担心大型科技公司雇佣了过多工程师，而AI带来的效率提升可能会导致工程师受到挤压。大型科技公司在AI基础设施上的巨额投入可能会导致市场紧缩。所有在过去15年中雇佣工程师并推高工资的公司，至少从表面上看，他们雇佣的人员比他们需要的要多得多。如果这是真的，那么人工智能带来的效率提升可能是软件工程师受到挤压的原因之一。

Deep Dive

Chapters
This chapter explores the argument that AI will not replace software engineers, due to the ever-increasing complexity of software development and the infinite number of things to build. The primary constraint in software development is complexity, not physics, ensuring ongoing demand for engineers.
  • AI increases efficiency but doesn't eliminate the need for engineers.
  • Product roadmaps are infinite, leading to continuous demand for software development.
  • The core challenge remains complexity, not physical limitations.

Shownotes Transcript

On today's show Ben and Andrew answer questions about the future of engineering jobs, the definition of vibe coding, Meta's AI upside, ChatGPT-led fashion shows, xAI as a third-tier streamer, and bitter lessons as autonomous driving becomes more viable. At the end: An emailer follow-ups on last week's conversation about normies and AI risk.

To email the show: [email protected])

@SharpTechPodcast Channel — YouTube)

@Stratechery Channel — YouTube)

xAI Raising Money, xAI and Oracle, Xbox = Windows — Stratechery Update)

Meta + Scale AI?, Meta’s Reset, AI as Sustaining Innovation — Stratechery Update)

Vibe Coding, Windsurf and Anthropic, ChatGPT Connectors — Stratechery Update)

Elon Dreams and Bitter Lessons — Stratechery)

Get all episodes of Sharp Tech, Sharp China, Stratechery Updates and Interviews, Greatest of All Talk, Asianometry and the Dithering Podcast as part of Stratechery Plus) for $15/month or $150/year.