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cover of episode (Preview) Xi Jinping and China's Tech Companies, The Long-Run Implications of the Chip Ban, and a Pessimistic Outlook for Taiwan

(Preview) Xi Jinping and China's Tech Companies, The Long-Run Implications of the Chip Ban, and a Pessimistic Outlook for Taiwan

2025/2/19
logo of podcast Sharp Tech with Ben Thompson

Sharp Tech with Ben Thompson
AI Deep Dive AI Chapters Transcript
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Ben Thompson
创立并运营订阅式新闻稿《Stratechery》，专注于技术行业的商业和策略分析。
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Bill Bishop
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Ben Thompson: 我认为DeepSeek的出现将会对AI领域产生重大的、难以预测的影响。它开源的举动，以及其性能的优越性，不仅改变了人们对中国AI能力的认知，还对美国股市和AI相关股票造成了冲击。即使在芯片禁令的限制下，DeepSeek仍然通过创造性的方法，利用现有硬件构建了具有国际竞争力的模型，并通过开源迅速提升了中国AI模型的全球影响力。DeepSeek的成功也对美国AI公司造成了冲击，迫使他们更加积极地进行竞争，例如降低价格和改进模型。DeepSeek的成功并非完全出乎意料，市场竞争依然激烈，但其成功也证明了AI领域的现实和人们的预期之间存在差距，而现实也同样令人瞩目。美国AI公司可以从DeepSeek的经验中学习，提高模型效率。未来，芯片供应的差异可能会导致中国和美国AI发展差距的扩大，芯片禁令对中国AI发展的影响值得关注。 Bill Bishop: 中国在AI领域的突破，需要的不仅仅是资金和激励，更需要一种‘我们能做到’的信念。DeepSeek的开源决策主要由其自身决定，而非来自中国政府的直接干预。DeepSeek的开源和性能提升了中国AI在全球的影响力，并对其他AI公司造成冲击。DeepSeek的成功并非偶然，其背后是多年技术积累和模型迭代的结果。DeepSeek公布的成本数据被误读，其实际成本远高于公开数据。DeepSeek的R1模型因其推理能力和用户界面而受到欢迎，其成功与人们对中国AI的期待以及对美国AI投资的担忧有关。DeepSeek的成功，是多种因素共同作用的结果，包括其技术实力、市场环境以及公众情绪。

Deep Dive

Chapters
This chapter explores the emergence of DeepSeek, a Chinese AI model that unexpectedly disrupted the global AI market. Its open-source nature and surprising capabilities sparked debate about its origins, impact, and the future of AI competition.
  • DeepSeek's open-source model challenged established players like OpenAI.
  • Its release caused significant fluctuations in global stock markets.
  • The chapter discusses the debate around DeepSeek's organic vs. inorganic social media surge.

Shownotes Transcript

On today’s special crossover Sharp Tech/Sharp China episode, Ben Thompson and Bill Bishop discuss the private enterprise symposium and Xi Jinping's rapprochement with China's tech companies, and the connection between xAI and DeepSeek. Then, an extended debate on the chip ban, including its potential long-term consequences, and whether or not a course correction is possible. Finally, why the situation surround Taiwan is worrisome, and whether Trump is looking to make a deal.

To email the show: [email protected])

@SharpTechPodcast Channel — YouTube)

@Stratechery Channel — YouTube)

Xi convenes private enterprise symposium; Wang Yi in Munich; Taiwan; Tesla FSD and US-China trade — Sinocism)

DeepSeek FAQ — Stratechery)

Grok-3, The Nvidia Shortcut, Competitive Implications — Stratechery Update)

The ZTE Ban, Tech’s Trade War Risk, China’s Delayed Approval and Apple’s Pain — Stratechery Update)

Get all episodes of Sharp Tech, Sharp China, Stratechery Updates and Interviews, Greatest of All Talk, Asianometry and the Dithering Podcast as part of Stratechery Plus) for $15/month or $150/year.