cover of episode The future of wildfire management

The future of wildfire management

2025/4/25
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The Future of Everything

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Michael Wara
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Russ Altman
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Russ Altman: 我关注野火问题,因为其对社区和环境的影响日益严重,我们需要找到更好的解决方案。 Michael Wara: 野火问题是一个复杂的问题,需要全社会共同努力解决,不能仅仅局限于单一的思维模式。我们需要从社区层面入手,关注房屋周边环境的维护和社区成员的责任。加州过去十年在野火防治上的努力主要集中在电力公司和社区边缘的措施上,而对房屋本身的防护措施不足。早在2017年,关于野火防治的科学知识就已经很清晰了,但缺乏实施的意愿。气候变化导致的火灾风险变化速度快于社会适应速度。电力公司在过去十年中为提高电力系统安全做了很多努力,但地下化所有电力线路的成本太高,而且耗时长。电力公司已经开始根据风险等级来优先安排电力系统的安全升级工作。保险公司可以作为风险信号的提供者,但政治上不允许保险公司收取足以改变人们行为的费用。加州目前的主要火灾是房屋燃烧造成的,而不是森林火灾。郊区住宅区容易发生火灾,因为房屋就像易燃的死燃料。气候变化导致大气湿度降低,从而增加了野火风险,其影响程度远大于温度变化本身。到2030年代中期,目前最严重的火灾季节将成为平均水平,野火风险正在迅速增加。加州州长下令实施一项新的法规,要求居民改变房屋周围的景观设计,以减少火灾风险。飞溅的余烬会点燃房屋周围的易燃物,从而导致房屋燃烧。新法案将首先适用于新建房屋,三年后才适用于现有房屋。需要改进沟通方式,以更有效地向公众传达野火风险和应对措施。利用好名人效应,通过积极的宣传来改变公众对野火防治的认知。

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Michael Wara) is a lawyer and an expert in wildfire policy who says that solutions are out there, but face financial, political, and cultural resistance. What’s needed, he says, are “whole-of-society” approaches that raise wildfire risk to the community level. In this regard, the devastation in Los Angeles in 2025 could provide the spark needed for smarter communication, better policies, and renewed urgency on wildfires, Wara tells host Russ Altman) on this episode of Stanford Engineering’s The Future of Everything podcast.

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Chapters:

(00:00:00) Introduction

Russ Altman introduces guest Michael Wara, a wildfire expert and professor of law at Stanford University.

(00:03:17) Journey to Wildfire Research

How Michael’s clean energy work led to wildfire research.

(00:04:48) Communities at the Frontlines

The community-level challenges and responsibilities in fire prevention.

(00:07:05) Shifting Community Perspectives

How awareness is rising but state efforts remain misaligned.

(00:09:28) Legacy Homes, Modern Risk

Why older homes pose a major risk and retrofitting is crucial.

(00:11:06) The Limits of Utility-Led Safety Efforts

The significant but insufficient progress utilities have made.

(00:14:35) Targeting High-Risk Areas

How utilities now prioritize high-risk areas for safety upgrades.

(00:15:42) Insurance Industry Realities

Why insurers can't price risk without crashing markets.

(00:18:24) Urban Wildfires

How today's major fires in suburbs are mostly fueled by homes.

(00:23:24) The Climate Change Multiplier

The impact of atmospheric dryness and fuel moisture on fire risk.

(00:25:57) New Fire Regulations

Recent mandates that have been implemented to decrease fire risk.

(00:30:58) Hollywood’s Role in Culture Change

Michael’s suggestion to showcase fire-safe landscaping.

(00:33:04) Conclusion

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