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cover of episode Anthropic Wants $40B Valuation and Funding Plans

Anthropic Wants $40B Valuation and Funding Plans

2024/11/30
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Lex Fridman Podcast of AI

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Jaeden Schafer
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Jaeden Schafer: Anthropic 正在寻求 400 亿美元的估值进行新一轮融资,这使其成为 OpenAI 之后又一家备受瞩目的 AI 初创公司。其融资方式较为独特,选择在摩根士丹利的私人科技会议上向投资者推介,而非传统的风险投资公司。这表明 Anthropic 可能正在寻求来自主权财富基金或大型企业投资者的资金。 Anthropic 与亚马逊达成了 40 亿美元的交易,并获得了谷歌的 20 亿美元投资。这些合作不仅带来了资金支持,还为 Anthropic 提供了宝贵的云计算资源,降低了其运营成本。Anthropic 通过与大型科技公司合作,降低了其模型训练的成本,并通过订阅服务变现。 尽管 Anthropic 预计到今年年底将实现 8 亿美元的年化收入,但其巨额的运营支出(预计超过 27 亿美元)仍然是一个挑战。其与亚马逊的交易也受到了英国反垄断机构的审查,但最终该机构认定该交易未达到触发调查的门槛,因此未对其进行调查。这与英国此前阻止 Adobe 收购 Figma 的案例形成了鲜明对比,也反映出当前科技公司并购环境的复杂性。 由于监管环境的收紧,科技公司正在转向人才收购(acqui-hire)而非直接收购公司,这是一种新的并购趋势。

Deep Dive

Key Insights

What is Anthropic's current valuation and how does it compare to OpenAI?

Anthropic is raising funds at a valuation of $30 to $40 billion, which is significantly lower than OpenAI's $150 billion valuation. Despite being smaller, Anthropic is considered a strong competitor, particularly in the development and marketing sectors.

Why is Anthropic's funding strategy considered unique?

Anthropic is presenting to investors at Morgan Stanley's private tech conference, a departure from the typical venture capital route. This suggests a complex funding round involving sovereign wealth funds and corporate investors, similar to their previous deals with Amazon and Google.

What are the financial projections for Anthropic by the end of the year?

Anthropic is projected to generate $800 million in annualized revenue by the end of the year, equating to about $66 million per month. However, the company is also expected to burn more than $2.7 billion this year, indicating significant financial challenges.

How did the UK antitrust authority rule on Amazon's investment in Anthropic?

The UK's Competition and Markets Authority (CMA) ruled that Amazon's $4 billion partnership and equity investment in Anthropic does not qualify for investigation under current merger rules, as it does not meet the £70 million UK turnover threshold.

What is the significance of the UK's role in regulating US tech companies?

The UK's CMA has significant influence over US tech companies, as seen when it blocked Adobe's acquisition of Figma. This has led to a shift in deal strategies, with companies opting for acqui-hires rather than direct acquisitions to avoid regulatory hurdles.

Chapters
This chapter analyzes Anthropic's ambitious $40 billion valuation and its unique fundraising strategy, contrasting it with OpenAI's $150 billion valuation. It explores Anthropic's competitive position in the AI market, its revenue projections, and its significant spending on AI model training.
  • Anthropic aims to raise funds at a $40 billion valuation.
  • OpenAI's current funding round closed at $150 billion.
  • Anthropic's revenue is projected to reach $800 million by the end of the year, but it anticipates spending over $2.7 billion.
  • Anthropic employs a unique fundraising approach, involving corporate investors and investment banks.

Shownotes Transcript

Translations:
中文

Today on the podcast, I'm going to be breaking down a whole bunch of news related to one of our favorite AI startups, Anthropic, because they have floated raising money at a $40 billion valuation. They also have some big news about their $4 billion deal with Amazon that has recently passed some of the antitrust scrutiny over in the UK. There's a lot that goes down to the whole antitrust thing, and I think we've seen a

caught up in it. There's a bunch of pending cases, and I think it's going to be a very big thing in the future. So I want to actually break this thing down in a little bit more detail, essentially what's happening with Anthropic there, but you'll also get a lot about the entire industry and what you're going to see with other places. Before I get into all of that, I wanted to say that today's episode is sponsored by my very own school community. Not really sponsored. I'm just telling you about it. If you're interested in starting your own AI side hustle, using AI to make money,

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So back to Anthropic, the thing that I think is really interesting here, the information kind of broke the story. They always have these exclusive takes. Um, this one is the fact that Anthropic, which of course is opening eyes, biggest competitor. Um, they're talking to a bunch of different investors, uh,

raising money and their latest valuation is $30 to $40 billion. Now, this is pretty interesting because OpenAI is just closing out their current funding round at $150 billion. So even if they got the higher end of the scale at $40 billion, you know, they're still more than three times smaller or lower evaluation than OpenAI.

And I guess that makes sense because Anthropic definitely isn't as big as OpenAI. They're not as robust as far as all the products they offer. But as far as the ChatGPT competitor side, very, very competitive. I know a ton of people that have both ChatGPT and Anthropic. Some people that only use Anthropic. A lot of people tell me it is way better for development. I have a lot of people that use it for marketing that say the tone of Anthropic is a lot better for getting just text and content generated. So Anthropic is definitely a really big player in...

Now, for those that are like, forget where Anthropic kind of came from, it was the CEO of Anthropic had a falling out with Sam Altman from OpenAI about three years ago and started the company, left OpenAI and started Anthropic and started creating Claude and all of the other different tools after that. So very, very interesting. What I do think is interesting with this is the way that they're going about or trying to raise this money. So

Based off of some documents that the information saw, it looks like Anthropic is going to be kicking off this fundraise in a little bit of a unique way. They're going to be presenting to some investors at Morgan Stanley's private tech conference in Los Angeles. That's going to be next month.

And what's interesting to me about that is typically this is not the way that startups go raise money. They usually go to venture capital firms and other places. They don't usually go to investment banks when they're looking to get money.

in investments unless it's really, really complex how the round has been put together. Now, this is something that you could imagine having sovereign wealth funds or a bunch of corporate investors in. Those are kind of the more complex types of rounds. And this is exactly what I believe Anthropic is doing. So in the past, they've raised a lot of money from corporate, right? They've got $4 billion from

Amazon, which I'm going to talk about in a minute because that is also an interesting story. And of course, they've got $2 billion from Google, a bunch of other places that they've been raising money from. So I believe based off of this, and it looks like what they're saying is they plan on continuing to raise money from corporate investors again. Now, all of this to me is very, very interesting because the way they do a lot of these corporate deals is that they

You know, they've done deals with Google Cloud where they got free compute. They've done deals with Amazon where they're also getting compute. So, you know, a lot of this could be doing it with corporate people where they're like using it to lower their cost of goods. But in any case, all of this goes towards training their cloud chatbot, which then, of course, they have subscriptions that kind of pay for that. So.

Really interesting fundraise. I'll be really interested to see all of this. Of course, this is not very cheap. By the end of this year, Anthropic is set to be

generating about $800 million in annualized revenue by the end of this year, meaning it's not actually going to have generated $800 million, but by the end of the year, it will be on track to generate $800 million by the end of its next 365 days. So kind of sneaky how they do that or about $66 million in revenue per month. So in any case,

This is pretty fantastic. It shares a big chunk of that with Amazon, which also resells the cloud model to a lot of its cloud customers. And I think Anthropix Net Revenue, after the payout that they do,

to Amazon is probably 25, 50% lower than the numbers that I was just mentioning before. So all of this comes at a pretty steep cost. The company previously projected that it was going to burn more than $2.7 billion this year. So you

It sounds fantastic that they're going to be on track to make $800 million, but spending $2.7 billion is a lot of money. Absolutely insane numbers. So it's going to be interesting to see where this goes. Now, in relation to that whole deal, there's other news coming out around that whole Anthropic Amazon deal.

Apparently, that deal has just been cleared by a UK antitrust authority that said Amazon's partnership and equity investment in Anthropic can't be investigated under the current merger rules because of the size and scope of the deal. So that's something that TechCrunch put out talking about it. Now, I want to talk about what's specifically interesting with this case and why that is. So a lot of these are coming out of the CMA. This is the UK's Competition and Markets Authority.

What's interesting is this is six months after Anthropic and Amazon announced that they were going to be doing this deal. And even further back in the past when Anthropic really started working with Amazon AWS and making deals, but then this really big $4 billion deal was about six months ago. So six months later, we have this UK antitrust. People say, oh no, it's good. You guys are good to do this. Would they really have changed things? They've already been taking money. They've already been growing. I don't know. To me, it just seems crazy. This UK...

you know, antitrust group or whatever wants to just put a stamp of approval on it just to say that, look, we have a say. You got to like think about us, whatever. In any case, the reason why this is so important is because, you know,

Anthropic is not even based in the UK. It's a San Francisco-based startup. Amazon is also a USA-based company. And I guess the reason why the UK concluded that it was

They didn't actually say like, hey, we think your deal's good. They just said, we can't investigate your deal. And the reason for that is because that it didn't meet the 70 million, yeah, the 70 million euro threshold to qualify for investigation. And that's specifically their UK turnover, meaning in the United Kingdom, they're not making more than that. So they don't really get to do that. It's kind of interesting to me though, because it's a very, I believe it's the same one or a similar UK agency that blocked, yeah,

Adobe from acquiring Figma. And that was a multi-billion dollar deal that got completely blocked and shut down. Adobe was not able to acquire Figma. And that wasn't even because like in the United States, there was regulatory things, even though Figma and Adobe are both USA based. It was because of some group in the UK that blocked it. So to me, this is very, very fascinating. Um,

that it's agencies in the UK that are blocking United States tech companies from doing mergers and stuff. It's a very, very tricky time. And so because of that Adobe and Figma deal that got blocked, now all of these companies are essentially doing acqui-hires. So you see with Microsoft, they essentially came in and instead of just straight up buying, they just went and

paid a chunk of change to get Inflection's whole team that had raised a billion dollars and Mustafa Selim and kind of their leadership. So very, very interesting time right now. But all of this is kind of switching the way that these deals are done. People are investing, acqui-hiring, but they're not straight up doing acquisitions anymore. So very, very interesting. But in any case, Anthropic has been cleared of this Amazon deal. They're not going to get investigated on it. And it looks like

smooth sailing for them to go and try to raise their $40 billion. To keep you updated on all of that, if you're interested in making money from AI tools or growing your business, make sure to join our school community, AI Hustle. Their link is in the description and I will catch you next time.