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cover of episode An Interview With the Herald of the Apocalypse

An Interview With the Herald of the Apocalypse

2025/5/15
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Matter of Opinion
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D
Daniel Kokotajlo
H
Helene Cooper
R
Ross Douthat
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Daniel Kokotajlo: 我认为世界即将发生巨变，这让我感到非常害怕和悲伤，甚至会做噩梦。自从GPT-3出现后，我意识到AGI可能在我的有生之年实现。虽然我可能错了，但我仍然会尽力做好眼前的事情。我预测AI系统将变得更加自主，能够自动化软件工程师等工作。一旦编码被自动化，AI研究的进展速度将会加快，最终在所有方面都超越人类。这意味着我们可能会在短时间内从现在的人工智能发展到超级智能。我们需要关注AI的安全问题，避免出现灾难性的后果。 Ross Douthat: 我承认Daniel的预测让我感到不安，但我仍然持怀疑态度，认为AI的能力可能存在限制。不过，我理解那些对AI的潜在风险感到担忧的人，因为许多参与AI工作的人认为他们正在将这个未来变为现实，而我们生活在可能的末日阴影下。我们需要认真对待这些担忧，并采取措施来降低风险。我个人认为，对AI进行监管是必要的，以确保其发展符合人类的利益。

Deep Dive

Shownotes Transcript

Is artificial intelligence about to take your job? According to Daniel Kokotajlo, the executive director of the A.I. Futures Project, that should be the least of your worries. Kokotajlo was once a researcher for OpenAI, but left after losing confidence in the company’s commitment to A.I. safety. This week, he joins Ross to talk about “AI 2027),” a series of predictions and warnings about the risks A.I. poses to humanity in the coming years, from radically transforming the economy to developing armies of robots.

  • 03:59 - What effect could AI have on jobs?
  • 06:45 - But wait, how does this make society richer?
  • 10:08 - Robot plumbers and electricians
  • 14:53 - The geopolitical stakes
  • 18:58 - AI’s honesty problem
  • 22:43 - The fork in the road
  • 27:55 - The best case scenario
  • 29:38 - The power structure in an AI-dominated world
  • 32:32 - What AI leaders think about this power structure
  • 38:30 - AI's hallucinations and limitations
  • 43:45 - Theories of AI consciousness
  • 47:05 - Is AI consciousness inevitable?
  • 50:59 - Humanity in an AI-dominated world

*(A full transcript of this episode is available on the Times website.) *

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