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cover of episode An Asteroid May Hit Earth in 2032. What Can We Do about It?

An Asteroid May Hit Earth in 2032. What Can We Do about It?

2025/2/12
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Science Quickly
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Lee Billings
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Rachel Feltman
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Rachel Feltman: 我了解到小行星2024 YR4可能在2032年撞击地球,虽然风险数字在不断变化,但并非单纯升高。目前欧洲航天局估计的撞击概率为2%。重要的是,我们需要了解风险变化的原因以及未来的应对措施。 Lee Billings: 作为一名空间和物理编辑,我来解释一下。小行星撞击地球的概率超过1%就值得关注。小行星2024 YR4由智利的天文望远镜系统发现,预计2032年再次接近地球,届时撞击概率约为1.3%。我们需要持续观测,完善轨道信息。如果到2028年仍无法确定其轨道,留给我们的时间将非常有限。应对措施包括使用动能撞击器或核武器。如果撞击无法避免,石质小行星可能在大气层中解体,造成类似于通古斯事件的影响。总之,情况复杂,需要国际合作和提前准备。我个人认为,我们应该积极监测,并在必要时采取果断行动,以保护地球免受潜在威胁。

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The European Space Agency estimates a 2% chance of asteroid 2024 YR4 colliding with Earth in 2032. The probability is constantly being refined, and the asteroid's orbit is still being pieced together. If the risk remains high, there's limited time to prepare a response.
  • 2% chance of collision estimated by ESA
  • Asteroid 2024 YR4 discovered by ATLAS telescope
  • Orbit refinement needed to assess risk accurately
  • Limited time for response if collision course confirmed

Shownotes Transcript

The European Space Agency recently announced that the near-Earth asteroid 2024 YR4 has a 2 percent chance of hitting our planet in 2032. The probability of impact is difficult to predict exactly and will be clearer in 2028, when 2024 YR4 will whiz by us. But if the asteroid really is on a collision course with Earth, what can we do about it? Senior space and physics editor Lee Billings joins host Rachel Feltman to unpack this headline-making story.

Recommended reading:

Newfound Asteroid May Hit Earth in 2032, Scientists Say) 

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Science Quickly is produced by Rachel Feltman, Fonda Mwangi, Kelso Harper, Madison Goldberg, Naeem Amarsy and Jeff DelViscio. This episode was hosted by Rachel Feltman with guest Lee Billings. Our show is edited by Jeff DelViscio with fact-checking by Shayna Posses and Aaron Shattuck. The theme music was composed by Dominic Smith.

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