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cover of episode Tariff Special: The Intelligence Squared Economic Outlook with Helen Thompson (Part One)

Tariff Special: The Intelligence Squared Economic Outlook with Helen Thompson (Part One)

2025/5/17
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Intelligence Squared

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Conor Boyle
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Mia Sorrenti
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Helen Thompson: 我认为特朗普政府的关税政策不仅仅是为了贸易,而是为了更广泛的政治和经济目标,这导致了政策上的混乱和不确定性。虽然我不认为任何情况下都不能使用关税,但特朗普政府的方式既不合理,也没有内部战略连贯性。中国在全球制造业中占据的份额越来越大,这使得美国不得不采取行动,试图改变贸易条件,但这并不容易。即使拜登政府也表现出强烈的保护主义倾向,这表明根本问题是结构性的,而不仅仅是特朗普的问题。现在的问题不是低利润制造业,而是高科技制造业,以及中国在这方面的成功。我们正处于一个惊人地困难的历史时刻,在贸易方面,没有先例可以借鉴来稳定多边国际贸易秩序。我认为美国经济在结构上是脆弱的,尤其是在债务方面。多极化已经到来,美国需要适应,这将给他们带来短期到中期的痛苦,并对世界其他地区产生影响。我认为这些动态实际上导致了世界经济的累积不稳定。

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‘The world as we knew it is gone’

– UK Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer’s response to Trump’s tariffs

President Donald Trump recently announced a 90-day pause for his monumental ‘liberation day’ tariffs while at the same time escalating a dangerous trade war with China.

Trump’s announcement came just weeks after import taxes on all goods entering the US were introduced, in the biggest upheaval of international trade in decades. And beyond the chaos and endless news cycle of the last few days, Trump’s key advisers are introducing a broader set of fringe economic ideas that they believe will transform politics and economics at home, as well as the foundations of US power abroad.

In May 2025, Helen Thompson, expert on the long history of globalisation and author of the acclaimed book Disorder: Hard Times in the 21st Century came to Intelligence Squared to make sense of the seismic shifts we are witnessing in the global economy and how they will impact us here in the UK.

She was joined on stage by BBC broadcaster Jonny Dymond for this event in our Intelligence Squared Economic Outlook series in partnership with Guinness Global Investors.

This recording is part of The Intelligence Squared Economic Outlook series of events made in partnership with Guinness Global Investors, an independent British fund manager that helps both individuals and institutions harness the future drivers of growth to achieve their investment goals.

To find out more visit: https://www.guinnessgi.com/


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