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cover of episode The Intelligence Squared Economic Outlook with Martin Wolf (Part 1)

The Intelligence Squared Economic Outlook with Martin Wolf (Part 1)

2025/2/12
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Intelligence Squared

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Martin Wolf: 我认为世界经济预计将增长略高于3%,亚洲增长最快但速度减缓,中国经济放缓是主要原因。发达国家中,美国预计增长2%或稍多,欧洲整体增长约为一半或稍少,存在人口结构和其他因素导致的差异。过去几年世界经济频繁遭受冲击,特朗普的贸易战是否会成为重大冲击有待观察。目前特朗普的关税措施更多是干扰因素而非主要因素,但如果不确定性影响商业决策,情况将不同。关税威胁影响可预测性,从而影响投资决策,这在中长期更为重要。商业决策受信息影响缓慢,今年的大部分投资已经决定,不确定性增加会产生长期影响,取决于政策制定者的反应。股票估值过高、全球债务水平高企以及潜在的战争风险都可能引发金融冲击。世界经济脆弱,政治不稳定,存在战争风险,中美关系可能恶化,企业应谨慎应对,避免集体停业。

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2025 is set to be a seismic year for the global economy. Donald Trump will return to the White House with an ‘America First’ agenda that threatens to dismantle global trade. Wars in Ukraine and Gaza could continue to escalate and cause turmoil in diplomacy. And the race to develop AI will accelerate as China and the US battle it out for technological supremacy.

Who better to make sense of these unsettling and fast-changing times than Martin Wolf, Chief Economics Commentator at the Financial Times? Widely regarded as one of the world’s most influential writers on the global economy and a multi-award-winning financial journalist, Wolf has been chronicling and analysing geopolitical and economic upheaval for nearly 40 years. He has written five bestselling books. His latest, The Crisis of Democratic Capitalism, maps out the implications of globalisation, technological development and the impact of democratic decline on the global economy.

Wolf joined us onstage for the this installment of the Intelligence Squared Economic Outlook as he discussed what we can expect from 2025 and beyond in conversation with BBC News presenter and Royal Correspondent Jonny Dymond.

This recording is part of The Intelligence Squared Economic Outlook series of events made in partnership with Guinness Global Investors, an independent British fund manager that helps both individuals and institutions harness the future drivers of growth to achieve their investment goals.

To find out more visit: https://www.guinnessgi.com/


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