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cover of episode The World in 2025 with Robert Kaplan: Finding A Way Through Permanent Crisis (Part One)

The World in 2025 with Robert Kaplan: Finding A Way Through Permanent Crisis (Part One)

2025/4/6
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Robert Kaplan: 我认为当今世界正处于前所未有的高度紧张的永久性危机之中。技术缩小了地理距离,使得全球各地发生的危机更容易相互影响。全球化导致国家内部分裂而非团结,一部分人融入全球化精英阶层,而另一部分人则被抛在后面,这部分解释了特朗普现象和脱欧等事件。魏玛共和国的兴衰并非不可避免,而是多种偶然因素造成的,这提醒我们对未来要保持谦逊和谨慎。美国正处于衰落之中,其原因在于政治中心的丧失,导致政治极化和两极分化。社交媒体奖励激情和简单的解决方案,这不利于分析和善政。冷战后世界秩序的建立并非历史的必然,而是短暂的和平时期,如今世界正进入一个更加动荡的历史时期。特朗普是具有世界历史意义的人物,他挑战了美国的宪法秩序,改变了美国和世界。俄罗斯和中国的专制政权正处于其权力开始瓦解的最危险时期。旷日持久的乌克兰战争削弱了俄罗斯的影响力,而中国内部的经济和政治问题也对其未来构成威胁。习近平可能代表着中国共产主义的最后阶段,之后中国可能会进入一个新的王朝时期,而王朝更迭往往伴随着战争、解体和动荡。 Alec Russell: 与卡普兰就其对世界永久性危机的论述进行探讨,并就全球化、特朗普现象、美国民主制度的未来以及中俄两国专制政权的脆弱性等问题提出质疑。 Connor Boyle: 介绍了本期节目的嘉宾罗伯特·卡普兰及其新书《荒原》,并概述了卡普兰的主要观点。 Mia Cirenti: 作为节目制作人,对本期节目进行了开场介绍。

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Robert Kaplan defines "permanent crisis" as a state of heightened anxiety, interconnectedness, and emotional volatility due to globalization and technological advancements. He argues that crises now spread rapidly and impact people globally, creating a more intense and sustained state of crisis than ever before.
  • Increased anxiety and interconnectedness due to technology
  • Global crises spread rapidly
  • Geography is shrunk by technology

Shownotes Transcript

We are entering a new era of global instability. The world is facing an era of war, climate change, great power rivalry and unprecedented technological advancement. In April 2025, geopolitical expert and bestselling author Robert Kaplan came to Intelligence Squared to analyse where the world is heading in 2025 and beyond. Drawing from the themes of his new book Waste Land, he argued that history can help guide us through a world that is changing at an unprecedented pace.

Kaplan drew comparisons between today’s challenges and the Weimar Republic, the post-World War I democratic German government that arguably paved the way for Nazism in the 1930s. Just as in Weimar, which faced crises inextricably bound up with global systems, the singular dilemmas of the twenty-first century—pandemic disease, recession, mass migration, the destabilizing effects of large-scale democracy and great power conflicts, and the intimate bonds created by technology—mean that every national disaster has the potential to become a global crisis, too. According to Kaplan, solutions lie in prioritising order in governing systems, and he will argue that stability and historic liberalism rather than mass democracy will save global populations from a chaotic future.


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