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cover of episode The World in 2025 with Robert Kaplan: Finding A Way Through Permanent Crisis (Part Two)

The World in 2025 with Robert Kaplan: Finding A Way Through Permanent Crisis (Part Two)

2025/4/8
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Intelligence Squared

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Robert Kaplan
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Robert Kaplan: 我认为拜登政府对华政策非常聪明,因为它通过加强联盟来对抗中国,而不是直接威胁中国,从而避免了不稳定。我担心特朗普政府的政策会破坏西太平洋地区的稳定,因为他的政策没有像拜登政府那样重视联盟,这导致美国东亚盟友感到困惑和不安,甚至考虑发展核武器。我认为,如果第一次世界大战后欧洲的君主制能够以立宪的方式保留下来,那么可能就不会有希特勒,因为君主制能够给政治带来更大的严肃性和稳定性,并且比单一民族国家更好地保护少数民族。我认为90年代人们过于沉浸在希望的宿命论中,而忽视了历史证据,这种脱离信仰和未经历史检验的希望是危险的。我认为历史自由主义比大众民主更能保障我们的安全,因为历史自由主义提倡在不确定性中生活,并对不同的观点持开放态度。我认为伊朗政权已经疲惫不堪,并且伊朗的年轻人渴望参与全球经济,如果伊朗能够在内部力量的作用下进行民主实验,结果可能会出乎意料地好。我担心很多人害怕独立思考,从而陷入各种意识形态的束缚,而技术则加剧了这种现象。我认为科技巨头与特朗普之间的勾结比以往任何时候都更加激烈,特朗普可能利用了与科技巨头之间的这种关系。我认为美国可能衰落缓慢,即使经历了特朗普执政时期的冲击,它仍然可能保持其卓越地位很长一段时间,因为作为一个大众民主国家,它比僵化的专制政权更有灵活性。我认为与特朗普打交道最好的办法是尊重、礼貌,并逐渐地暗示其他的观点,让他觉得这些观点是他自己想出来的。我认为美国要恢复其中心地位,需要经历一个过程,首先情况会变得更糟,然后才会好转。我认为印度是连接中国和美国之间的关键枢纽国,其在全球政治中的地位非常重要,并且印度领导人对地缘政治有清晰的认识。我担心美国军方会顺从特朗普政府的意愿,因为军方是一个趋同的机构,而且将军们往往会参与政治。我认为美国不太可能完全放弃对乌克兰的支持,尽管乌克兰战争在美国媒体中的关注度有所下降。 主持人: 我认为,尽管中国越来越像一个试图按照马克思列宁主义原则运作的国家,但它在科技方面也取得了革命性的进步,这值得关注。我认为,虽然我们重视人权和环境,但这并不意味着全球体系的稳定性,权力平衡仍然至关重要。我认为特朗普不是一个有特定政治信仰的人,他更像是一个机会主义者。

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We are entering a new era of global instability. The world is facing an era of war, climate change, great power rivalry and unprecedented technological advancement. In April 2025, geopolitical expert and bestselling author Robert Kaplan came to Intelligence Squared to analyse where the world is heading in 2025 and beyond. Drawing from the themes of his new book Waste Land, he argued that history can help guide us through a world that is changing at an unprecedented pace.

Kaplan drew comparisons between today’s challenges and the Weimar Republic, the post-World War I democratic German government that arguably paved the way for Nazism in the 1930s. Just as in Weimar, which faced crises inextricably bound up with global systems, the singular dilemmas of the twenty-first century—pandemic disease, recession, mass migration, the destabilizing effects of large-scale democracy and great power conflicts, and the intimate bonds created by technology—mean that every national disaster has the potential to become a global crisis, too. According to Kaplan, solutions lie in prioritising order in governing systems, and he will argue that stability and historic liberalism rather than mass democracy will save global populations from a chaotic future.


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