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cover of episode What Is Trump's Endgame With Tariffs?

What Is Trump's Endgame With Tariffs?

2025/2/5
logo of podcast Voternomics

Voternomics
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Anna Wong
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Shawn Donnan
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Stephanie Flanders
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Shawn Donnan: 我认为特朗普的贸易政策有三个相互冲突的目标。首先是利用关税作为谈判的筹码,就像我们之前在第一届特朗普政府中看到的那样,通过关税来获取贸易伙伴的让步。其次是重新平衡贸易,认为美国与主要贸易伙伴之间的贸易逆差是不公平的,需要通过关税来纠正。第三个目标是增加财政收入,特朗普一直声称可以通过关税获得数十亿美元的收入。然而,如果关税仅仅被用作谈判手段,而不真正实施,那么它就不是一个可靠的收入来源。同样,如果试图重新平衡贸易,那么进口量必然会减少,关税收入也会随之减少。最终,这会导致与2016年第一次特朗普贸易战期间类似的现象,即围绕特朗普贸易政策的目标和走向存在巨大的不确定性。这种不确定性对经济来说是最有害的,因为它会导致企业停止投资和招聘,从而导致经济放缓,不仅会影响受到关税直接冲击的加拿大和墨西哥,还会影响美国经济。

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This week, we ask what it is exactly US President Donald Trump may be trying to accomplish with his tariff threats and trade wars. Stephanie Flanders, Bloomberg’s head of government and economics, is joined by Anna Wong, chief US economist at Bloomberg Economics, and Bloomberg reporter Shawn Donnan, who covers economics and trade policy, to discuss. 

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