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cover of episode What Will Be the Economic Fallout of Trump’s Immigration Crackdown?

What Will Be the Economic Fallout of Trump’s Immigration Crackdown?

2025/7/2
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Voternomics
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People
J
Jonathan Levin
K
Kate Davidson
O
Oren Kass
S
Stephanie Flanders
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Jonathan Levin: 我观察到，特朗普政府的移民政策对美国劳动力市场产生了多方面的潜在冲击。首先，在住房市场方面，人们由于不确定自己未来的身份状态，对于做出长期决策变得更加犹豫。其次，由于移民净流入量的大幅下降，像我居住的迈阿密这样的移民密集型城市感受尤为明显。再次，政策造成的“寒蝉效应”正在影响着潜在的移民流入，并且降低了人们的工作意愿。最后，特朗普政府也在试图取消一些合法工作者的身份，尤其是在南佛罗里达州的酒店业和仓储业，这进一步加剧了劳动力市场的紧张。 此外，我认为这些政策的影响不仅仅局限于劳动力市场。如果将这些移民劳工从美国经济中移除，将会对依赖他们的行业带来巨大的冲击。虽然长期影响可能存在争议，但短期内的震荡是不可避免的。 Kate Davidson: 我认为，特朗普政府的移民政策对美国经济产生了显著的寒蝉效应。在洛杉矶，服装厂的缝纫机嗡嗡声消失，农田也空无一人。德克萨斯州的奶农表示工人不来挤奶，爱达荷州的洋葱种植者难以找到足够的农作物工人。这些现象表明，人们因为害怕被驱逐出境而不敢工作。农业领域受到了影响，特朗普总统也承认他听到了这些行业的声音，这影响了他们维持业务的能力。雇主不愿公开承认雇用非法移民，但随着突袭行动的增加，问题变得不可避免，越来越严重。 此外，特朗普政府不仅针对无证工人，还针对持有合法临时工作许可证的工人，这对医疗保健行业的某些部门构成了特殊挑战。家庭健康护理是美国增长最快的工作之一，该行业的许多工人持有临时工作许可证，一些养老社区表示他们正在失去工人，这不仅影响了依赖无证工人的行业。这些都对美国的经济造成了潜在的冲击。

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Chapters
This chapter explores the immediate effects of Trump's immigration policies on the US labor market. It highlights labor shortages reported across various sectors, including agriculture, hospitality, and construction, due to a chilling effect on workers' willingness to show up for work. The impact extends beyond undocumented workers to those with legal temporary work permits.
  • Labor shortages in agriculture, hospitality, and construction.
  • Chilling effect on workers' willingness to work.
  • Impact extends beyond undocumented workers to those with legal temporary work permits.

Shownotes Transcript

On this episode of Trumponomics, we focus on US President Donald Trump’s crackdown on immigration, what’s at stake for businesses and the economy, what harm has been done already and whether the administration could change course.

Jonathan Levin, a Bloomberg Opinion columnist focused on US markets and economics, and Kate Davidson, Bloomberg’s managing editor for US economic policy,** **join host Stephanie Flanders to discuss the many consequences of Trump’s signature campaign promise, whether his administration is likely to modulate its policies—and whether there could be long-term benefits to the broader economy of forcing employers to offer higher wages and better conditions to attract the workers they need.

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