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cover of episode Why Oil Prices Are Decoupling From Geopolitical Threats

Why Oil Prices Are Decoupling From Geopolitical Threats

2025/6/18
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Voternomics

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Jenny Welch
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Ziad Daoud
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Ziad Daoud: 近期中东地区的地缘政治风险显著升级,包括以色列与伊朗之间的直接冲突,但令人惊讶的是,这些事件对全球油价的影响相对有限。过去20个月里,尽管各种地缘政治风险相继发生,油价并未出现相应的大幅上涨。甚至在最近一周油价有所上涨后,仍然低于10月初的水平。我认为,这表明石油市场与地缘政治事件之间存在一种脱钩现象。这种脱钩现象的原因可能包括全球石油储备的增加,以及非中东地区石油供应的多元化,例如美国页岩油的产量增加。此外,全球经济对油价的敏感度也在下降,因为我们现在生产单位GDP所需的石油更少。虽然油价上涨通常会导致经济增长放缓和通货膨胀,但这种传导效应正在减弱。 Jenny Welch: 特朗普政府对中东冲突的反应,与以往相比显得不那么紧迫,这可能与美国对中东能源依赖的降低有关。特朗普政府内部在干预主义和孤立主义之间存在分歧,这使得美国对伊朗问题的策略显得不确定。特朗普总统似乎认为当前的冲突可以增加他在谈判桌上的筹码,但他也有可能选择放弃谈判,采取其他手段。值得注意的是,国家安全委员会的作用被削弱,政策规划主要来自国务院,这可能影响了对中东局势的专业评估和政策选择。总的来说,特朗普政府的决策过程常常在正常政策流程之外进行,受到政府外人士的影响,这使得政策走向更加难以预测。

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Chapters
This chapter discusses the relevance of G7 summits in the context of Donald Trump's presidency, focusing on his unexpected early departure from the summit in Canada and the overall impact on global collaborations. The discussion touches upon bilateral meetings and trade deals, highlighting the challenges of collective decision-making in the Trump era.
  • Trump's early departure from the G7 summit in Canada
  • Low expectations for the summit due to Trump's presence
  • Focus on Trump's bilateral meetings rather than the summit's agenda
  • Limited progress on trade deals with Japan, South Korea, and India
  • Zelensky's interest in a meeting with Trump amid ongoing negotiations with Russia

Shownotes Transcript

On this episode of Trumponomics, we ask what Israel’s war with Iran, Donald Trump’s public musings about sending America to fight again in the Middle East and a potentially soaring oil price would mean for the US economy—and the 79-year-old Republican’s economic plans. We also address why those high oil prices haven’t yet come to pass.Host Stephanie Flanders is joined by Jennifer Welch, chief geoeconomics analyst for Bloomberg Economics and Ziad Daoud, chief emerging markets economist and senior fellow at the Harvard Kennedy School. 

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