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cover of episode Instant Reaction: House Passes Funding Bill

Instant Reaction: House Passes Funding Bill

2024/12/20
logo of podcast Bloomberg Daybreak: US Edition

Bloomberg Daybreak: US Edition

AI Deep Dive AI Insights AI Chapters Transcript
People
J
Jeanne Sheehan Zaino
L
Lester Munson
M
Megan Scully
Topics
Lester Munson: 民主党在本次投票中展现出空前的团结,这预示着他们在未来立法中将争取更大的影响力,尤其是在税收问题上。他们几乎全票支持该法案,展现出强大的领导力和凝聚力。然而,共和党方面则面临更大的挑战。新任领导层能否有效地领导,并像八年前麦康奈尔和瑞安那样驾驭总统的国内议程,将是未来能否有效立法的一大考验。 马斯克和拉马斯瓦米对华盛顿的运作并不熟悉,他们对政府效率的期望可能过于乐观。虽然他们对政府改革的建议可能带来一些影响,但他们的实际影响力还有待观察,并且他们的建议能否在一年半后仍然有效也存在疑问。目前,这更多的是一种希望和梦想。 共和党内部在应对未来挑战方面面临诸多不确定性, 特朗普和马斯克的影响力将是关键因素。 Jeanne Sheehan Zaino: 尽管民主党内部在一些问题上存在分歧,但由于处于少数党地位,他们更有可能保持团结,这得益于杰弗里斯强有力的领导。然而,在涉及到诸如边境安全等问题时,这种团结能否持续,还有待观察。 共和党内部在应对未来挑战方面面临诸多不确定性, 特朗普和马斯克的影响力将是关键因素。未来一年,共和党内部的矛盾和分歧可能会加剧,尤其是在涉及到社会福利和预算削减等问题时。 政府停摆的危机再次凸显了美国国会运作的混乱和党派斗争的激烈。 Megan Scully: 要实现2.5万亿美元的支出削减目标,必须大幅削减社会福利项目,这将面临巨大的政治挑战。社会福利项目,如社会保障和医疗保险,是许多国会议员不愿触碰的“第三条轨道”。 虽然马斯克和拉马斯瓦米可以提出建议,但他们并非民选官员,其建议能否影响立法仍存在不确定性。他们提出的建议,例如削减农业和救灾援助资金,在国会中很难获得通过,因为这些项目直接关系到选民的利益。

Deep Dive

Key Insights

What was the vote tally for the stopgap funding measure passed by the House?

The House passed the stopgap funding measure with 366 votes in favor and 34 votes against. Notably, all 34 votes against came from Republicans, with 196 Democrats and 170 Republicans voting in favor.

Why did Democrats support the stopgap funding measure?

Democrats supported the measure to maximize their leverage over tax issues in the upcoming year and to ensure the government remains operational. They demonstrated near-unanimous support, with only one Democrat abstaining from the vote.

What challenges might Democrats face in maintaining unity in future votes?

Democrats may face challenges in maintaining unity on contentious issues like border security, which has been a weak spot for frontline Democrats in past elections and could resurface in 2026.

How does Hakeem Jeffries' leadership compare to Nancy Pelosi's?

Hakeem Jeffries has emerged as a strong leader, following in the footsteps of Nancy Pelosi. He commands the respect of his caucus, and Democrats have consistently followed his guidance, demonstrating near-lockstep unity.

What role might Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy play in future government efficiency efforts?

Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy are seen as influential figures, but their lack of familiarity with Washington could limit their effectiveness. Their recommendations may carry weight, but they are not elected officials and cannot directly enact policy.

What are the implications of cutting $2.5 trillion in spending to offset the debt ceiling increase?

Cutting $2.5 trillion in spending would require significant reductions in entitlements like Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid, which are politically sensitive and unlikely to be touched. This makes the proposed cuts mathematically and politically challenging.

Will the Senate pass the stopgap funding measure by the midnight deadline?

Yes, the Senate is expected to pass the measure by the midnight deadline, though there may be votes on amendments proposed by Senators Lee and Rand Paul.

Chapters
The House passed a stopgap funding measure to prevent a government shutdown, with Democrats playing a crucial role. The vote highlights the challenges facing Republican leadership in the coming year and the Democrats' unified front.
  • House passed stopgap funding bill (366-34)
  • No Democrats voted against the bill
  • 196 Democrats voted in favor, compared to 170 Republicans
  • Challenges for Republican leadership in the coming year

Shownotes Transcript

Translations:
中文

From the Delta Sky Club...

Welcome back, Ms. Klein.

Bloomberg Audio Studios. Podcasts, radio, news. We have just gotten the gavel. The House has officially passed this stopgap funding measure that will keep the government funded through March 14th of next year. The tally, 366 votes for this measure, only 34 against, not a single

one of those votes against came from a Democrat. Ultimately, it was the Democrats who provided more votes to get this over the finish line. 196 Democratic members voting yes compared to 170 Republicans. I want to come back to our political panel, Jeannie Shanzano and Lester Munson here. Lester, there were 38 Republicans who last night voted down the measure inclusive of the debt ceiling. 34 Republicans voted down this today with the debt ceiling taken out. It only changed...

Four minds on that front. What does that signal to you? Well, it also changed the minds of all the Democrats. Well, fair enough. Yes. And that's really the key here. And so Democrats are clearly – I take Jeannie's earlier points on this exact question to heart. Democrats want to kind of force the votes next year and maximize their leverage over these tax issues, which they are clearly going to be targeting. So you're starting to see –

The Democrats marshal their forces behind an agenda, thinking coherently about what that means, being willing to take some tough votes to get that done. And you saw there was, I think there was one present vote among the Democrats. So there's one Democrat who didn't vote in favor of this thing. So they have near total unanimity. They've got some real leadership. The question is going to be, I think, next year, can Senator Thune and Speaker Johnson

do the same thing that McConnell and Ryan did eight years ago when they really guided the president's domestic agenda through Congress. Can these new leadership members do something like that next year? It's going to be a real challenge for them. Well, so Jeannie, this is an excellent point that Lester is making, this notion that by and large, we do see the Democrats sticking together. And ultimately, whatever Hakeem Jeffries says is usually what goes. And I wonder if you think that is going to be as easy to maintain when they are actually

being asked to take votes on things like securing the border, something that was a weak spot for Democrats, frontline Democrats especially, in the last election and likely will be again in 2026.

Yeah, I think we've seen Hakeem Jeffries emerge as a very strong leader following, you know, the suit of Nancy Pelosi, who's also, you know, one of the best that we've had. And, you know, the reality is, is that he does have the respect of his caucus. And we've seen over and over again in almost lockstep to Lester's point that they do listen to his advice. And that bodes very well for him. It's not going to be easy, but I will say,

say it is easier, obviously, to be in the minority than it is to be in the majority. So, you know, it may be a different story if they took over the majority, but because they're in the minority, I think they will stick together next year. And the reality is, is that it is going to be so close next year that Mike Johnson is going to need them again. And that's not going to sit

well with people like Andy Biggs and Chip Roy and many others on the Republican side. And the question is, how does Donald Trump handle this? Particularly, how does he handle it when somebody like Elon Musk is controlling the largest megaphone maybe we have out there in terms of the Republican media? And when he shouts, everybody listens. That's going to be really fascinating to watch.

Well, Elon Musk's counterpart in leading this new government department of government efficiency has just posted his thoughts on ex Vivek Ramaswamy saying, quote, the last 72 hours highlighted the positive impact that Doge can have. But it also laid bare the massive lift ahead next year. We're ready for it.

Lester, both Vivek and Elon Musk aren't exactly ultra familiar with Washington. Do you really think they are ready for it? No, but I do like the way everyone is kind of dumping their hopes and dreams into the doge, right? Oh, this problem will be fixed next year with doge.

Oh, Doge has a huge opportunity. Doge has already affected things. Doge isn't really even a thing yet. It does certainly have some potential. Their real work won't be done for a year and a half. Will this still matter then? Will President Trump still have the same relationship with those two? That's a big question.

So I think it's mostly hopes and dreams right now, but it certainly could become reality if people actually sit down and look at it. Interestingly, there was a Tom Cole article in the Wall Street Journal this morning talking about they're going to have to look at entitlements if they really want to get close to a balanced budget. There's real truth in that, and that's not really something Republicans want to tackle yet. Well, when I was speaking with Congresswoman Beth Van Dyne just a moment ago, she was talking about how they said, yes, we're going to raise the debt ceiling, but we're going to cut $2.5 trillion in debt.

in spending in order to offset that. And Megan Scully, mathematically, that probably doesn't work if you're going to not be touching Social Security and Medicare. It absolutely does not. $2.5 trillion is more than the federal discretionary budget on an annual basis. So to put it in perspective, the Defense Department is creeping up to a trillion when you factor in emergency spending, and everything else is dwarfed in comparison. So

finding that means digging deep into entitlements. And that's when I think you're going to see, particularly House members and senators who are up for election in 26, really getting nervous because that, Social Security is the third rail. And there are a lot of weird rules about how we can legislate on Social Security and whether or not it can be part of this budget deal, whether it has to be dealt with separately. But it is...

you know, but when you're talking about entitlements, you're not just talking about social security. You're talking about Medicare. You're talking about Medicaid and you're talking about veterans benefits, which is something that lawmakers are very loathe to, you know, rescind. Well, but that doesn't mean that,

Ramaswamy and Musk might not recommend it, but at the end of the day, and Lester was alluding to this, they are not elected members of the U.S. government. They can only do recommendations technically. Have we not learned this week, though, that their words ultimately can matter to legislation even before they've made their DOJ recommendations? Yes and no, right? So

Musk has touted, look at the 1,500-page bill versus this 140 or however many-page bill it is and looking at the differences between the sides. The fact of the matter is the majority of that spending is still in there. And if that is what Doge is going after, that $110 billion for farmers and for disaster aid tells you something, that lawmakers were not going to cut that because that affects people's lives in their districts and in their states.

Absolutely. And Jeannie, we just have about a minute or two left here. But considering this is our last evening edition of Balance of Power of the year 2024, and we are ending it like this with a down to the wire vote, basically trying to avert a government shutdown that the Senate has to still act on, given everything that has gone down in this year. Does this surprise you in the slightest that we ended up in this moment at the very end of it?

Not at all, although I am thrilled that they did pass the government. It keeps it open. People can go home for the holidays, including you, Kaylee, who deserves a holiday and a rest. But, you know, this is the 118th. That's how it's been from the very, very start. And it has continued this way. I would say I want to be optimistic and say the 119th is going to be different. But mathematically, and this is a game of numbers, can't imagine how it could be that much different.

All right. Final question to all three of you. Jeannie, will the Senate be able to pass this measure by midnight? Yes, they will. Megan just explained it. Thank you, Megan. And Megan, your answer is still yes, I'm assuming. I hope so. We all hope so. Lester Munson, final word to you. Also, yes, but there's going to be some votes on Lee and or Rand Paul amendments.

Megan predicted that one as well. Thank you so much to all three of you for joining me as we have worked through this breaking news in Congress as we work to avert a government shutdown. Megan Scully, who leads our capital influence team here in Washington. Jeannie Shanzano and Lester Munson, my political panel this evening. Thank you so much again. The stopgap funding measure to keep the government funded through March 14th of next year has passed the House by a wide bipartisan margin. More Democrats putting up votes for it.

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