Trump Presses Senators to Embrace House Tax Bill; OECD Warns on Tariffs
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Good morning, I'm Nathan Hager. And I'm Karen Moscow. Here are the stories we're following today. Karen, we begin in Washington where President Donald Trump has been working the phones and social media trying to get Republicans in the Senate behind his multi-trillion dollar tax and spending cut bill.

The legislation passed the House by just one vote last month. The president can afford to lose no more than three votes in the Senate. Republican leaders plan to make many of the temporary tax cuts in the House bill permanent. North Dakota Republican Kevin Cramer says that will be key.

The biggest piece of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act from 2017 that we need to fix is to make those tax cuts permanent. Those are pro-growth tax cuts, and if we want to make a dynamic economy even more dynamic, I think that's got to be sort of the foundation of it all.

Republican Senator Kevin Cramer spoke on Bloomberg's balance of power, but extending those tax cuts could put fiscal hawks at odds with moderate Republicans who are concerned about the bill's cuts to Medicaid, which could end coverage for about 7.7 million Americans. President Trump is pushing for the bill to reach his desk by the 4th of July, but any changes in the Senate would mean the House would have to take up the bill again.

Nathan, we may soon see the impact of President Trump's trade war on the global economy. And we get the details with Bloomberg's John Tucker. John, good morning. Good morning, Karen. The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development has slashed its annual global growth forecast.

And it says the United States will be especially hard hit. It places the blame squarely on U.S. tariffs. The OECD downgraded its 2025 growth forecast for the U.S. from 2.2% to 1.6%. And they say the world's biggest economy is expected to slow further next year to 1.5%.

This is a club of 38 rich nations. It says the combination of trade barriers and uncertainty are hitting confidence and holding back investment, while also warning that protectionism is adding to inflationary pressures. And now for the U.S., the OECD says curbs on immigration and a sizable reduction in the federal workforce add to the trade-related drag on the economy. It also cautioned that the

budget deficit will expand further as the impact of weaker economic activity will more than offset spending cuts and any revenues from tariffs. In New York, I'm John Tucker, Bloomberg Radio. All right, John, thanks. We do have some developments on the trade wars this morning. The White House says President Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping are likely to speak this week.

Beijing has not commented on the prospect of a direct conversation, but we get more from Bloomberg News senior editor Bill Ferrys. It's not clear to me who's going to blink first here in this battle. When you talk about the trade side, countries now know that there's a chance that some of Trump's tariffs aren't even legal. The courts have ruled against it. We'll wait and see how that plays out. But the president's leverage, I think, has shrunk over the last week or two weeks or so. And I think a lot of his adversaries and friends who are negotiating over tariffs know that.

Bloomberg's Bill Ferry says Washington and Beijing have traded accusations they violated the terms of last month's broad agreement that saw both sides reduce tariffs from astronomical highs. Well, Nathan, a former White House official says any potential trade deal between the world's top two economies hinges on Donald Trump and Xi Jinping overcoming core differences in their negotiation styles. We caught up with former acting White House chief of staff Mick Mulvaney.

Trump wants to talk at the very highest levels. That's not always how the Chinese want to do business. And I'd be curious to see if they're able to make any headway. Trump doesn't want to go through the back channels. He doesn't want to go through the ordinary course of business. That's never been his style as a leader, being in business or in his first term in office. He wants to talk to the principal. He wants to talk to President Xi himself.

And former acting White House Chief of Staff Mick Mulvaney also served as President Trump's budget director during his first term. Well, while deals with China and the European Union prove elusive, Karen, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick says he expects the U.S. and India to strike a trade agreement before higher tariffs kick in on July 9th. Lutnick spoke at the U.S.-India Strategic Partnership Forum in Washington. Earlier countries get a better deal.

That's the way it is. So those who come in, you know, July 4th to July 9th, there's just going to be a pile. Right. Right. But those who are earlier and I think India is trying hard to be one of the earlier countries, which I appreciate. Commerce Secretary Howard Ludnick says both countries are discussing bringing their tariff rates down to a reasonable level. He says President Trump's strong personal relationship with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi has made an easier path to trade negotiations.

Now, Nathan, to the latest on efforts to end the war in Ukraine. Russia and Ukraine held the second round of talks in Istanbul but failed to reach a peace agreement. The two sides did lay the groundwork for a new prisoner swap. We get more from Bloomberg Russian economics and government editor Greg Sullivan.

The prisoner exchange was the biggest element that came out of this. Obviously, there was some talk about a ceasefire, and both sides did exchange what they called memorandums, outlining what they need to reach either a temporary ceasefire or a full peace. But that was not met at this meeting. They instead exchanged these proposals, agreed to study them, and the big thing that came out was an agreement to prepare the groundwork for a prisoner exchange. Now, the prisoners that they agreed to exchange are the heavily wounded, those that are young, under the age of 25, as well as some war dead.

Bloomberg's Greg Sullivan says Russia presented peace proposals that include Ukraine surrendering control of territory in four partially occupied regions, while Ukraine demanded an unconditional truce and proposed another meeting later this month. And now to a developing story in Europe, Karen. The government in the Netherlands...

has collapsed. Far-right lawmaker Garrett Wilders announced on social media that he's pulling his Freedom Party out of the country's ruling coalition because the three other main parties refused to agree to his plans to curb migration. We get more from Bloomberg's Oliver Crook. Last week, Garrett Wilders put forward a 10-point plan on immigration. These points included using the military basically to guard the land borders of the Netherlands, turning away all asylum seekers, temporarily halting

family reunification, also sending Syrians back to Syria, which he considers now a safe place for refugees and other migrants to be sent back. He said that if the majority of these 10 points are not agreed to by the government, yesterday he threatened to pull out of the government. And today on X, we have him saying no signature for our asylum plans, no changes to the main outline agreement. Bloomberg's Oliver Crook reports this move now forces the Netherlands into a snap election. The next vote wasn't scheduled for another two years.

Well, we turn to the markets now, Nathan, where futures are lower following yesterday's gains on Wall Street. In company news, there's more job cuts at Microsoft. The tech giant is cutting hundreds of jobs. A Microsoft spokesperson said the latest headcount reduction is in addition to the 6%.

thousand job cuts that were announced last month and microsoft's trying to trim costs even as it plows billions of dollars into artificial intelligence and disney's cutting jobs as well karen that company's laying off several hundred employees across its film and tv divisions disney's latest reductions follow roughly 200 job cuts across the abc and entertainment tv networks from march in all disney's eliminated more than 8 000 positions in recent years as it seeks to improve profitability

Time now for a look at some of the other stories making news in New York and around the world. And for that, we're joined by Bloomberg's Michael Barr. Michael, good morning. Good morning, Karen. Criminal charges have been unveiled against the suspect in the Boulder, Colorado flamethrower attack. 45-year-old Mohammed Soleiman now faces a federal hate crime charge and 16 counts of attempted murder in the first degree from the state in Sunday's attack. Boulder District Attorney Michael Doherty.

Boulder is a beautiful and special place, but we're not immune from mass violence or hate crimes, including violent acts of anti-Semitism that impact far too many communities across this country. Officials say the suspect yelled, free Palestine, as he launched the attack.

A former personal assistant to Sean Diddy Combs, who says he raped her, defended the text messages she sent to him for years after her job ended in 2017, saying she was brainwashed. The testimony at the Music Mogul's sex trafficking and racketeering trial came Monday as a woman testifying under the pseudonym Mia spent a third day on the witness stand. The trial entered its fourth week of witness testimony. The 55-year-old Combs has pleaded not guilty to charges.

Good news for New Jersey's Newark Airport. A newly constructed runway is open and more planes will soon be cleared for takeoff and landing. This comes after recent headaches at Newark that delayed passengers for hours and led to widespread cancellations. A telecommunications outage, which led to air traffic controllers taking leave, also contributed to the delays.

Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy was there for Monday's unveiling. It can't be fixed overnight. It takes time to train up on this airspace. But we've addressed the problem by bringing more controllers to train up in the Philly TRACON that, again, controls Newark here. Global News, 24 hours a day and whenever you want it. With Bloomberg News Now, I'm Michael Barr and this is Bloomberg, Karen. All right, Michael Barr, thank you.

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Time now for our Bloomberg Sports Update brought to you by Flushing Bank. And here's John Stashower. John, good morning. Good morning, Karen. The Mets road trip will end in Denver against the hapless Rockies. But it began with a four-game series in Los Angeles against the world champion Dodgers at the site where last season ended for the Mets in the NLCS. The series and road trip could not have had a better start. And he gets this one in the air to deep right field. Teoscar Hernandez goes back, takes a look.

It's out of here. For the sixth time this year, Francisco Lindor has led off a game with a home run. Number 14 in for Lindor. Six leadoff home runs. Ties him with Otani for the most in baseball. And just like that, the Mets jump in front. On SNY, Shohei Otani later homered for L.A. His 23rd. Dodgers tied the game. Bottom of the ninth. First blown save of the year for Edwin Diaz. He had been 13 for 13. Mets scored twice in the 10th inning. Dodgers got one back.

Mets won 4-3. They've won 27 games in a row when Lindor has homered. At Fenway, the Angels hit three home runs in a 6-1 first inning, then held on, beat the Red Sox 7-6. Saturday, when the Yankees lost that game to the Dodgers 18-2, they wanted to give their closer Luke Weaver some work.

He hurt his hamstring. Weaver's going to be out for four to six weeks. He's been sensational out of the bullpen pitching to an ERA just over one. Quarterfinals begin this morning at the French Open. Up first, the women's top seed, Irina Sabalenka, yet to lose the set. And today, trying to reach a Grand Slam semifinal for the ninth time in her last ten slams. Two Americans are still in the men's singles. Frances Tiafoe plays today, and then Tommy Paul.

takes on defending champ Carlos Alcaraz. A blow to the Detroit Lions, who went 15-2 last season. Their four-time Pro Bowl center, Frank Ragnow, citing health concerns, retiring at age 29 after only seven seasons. A new GM for the Utah Jazz, a familiar last name, Austin Ainge. His father, Danny, hired him. He's the team's CEO. Austin Ainge had been the Celtics' assistant GM. John Staschauer, Bloomberg Sports.

Coast to coast on Bloomberg Radio. Nationwide on Sirius XM. And around the world on Bloomberg.com and the Bloomberg Business App. This is Bloomberg Daybreak. Good morning, I'm Nathan Hager. President Donald Trump's putting pressure on Senate Republicans to pass the House's so-called one big beautiful bill of tax and spending cuts and get it to his desk.

by the 4th of July, but that deadline's just 31 days away. And fiscal hawks like Kentucky Republican Rand Paul are saying they won't be swayed unless they see even bigger spending cuts. It's just not a conservative thing to do. And I've told him I can't support the bill.

That was Kentucky Senator Rand Paul. Joining us now is Bloomberg News senior editor Bill Ferrys. And Bill, it sounds like as this debate shifts to the Senate, a lot of the same dynamics that were in play at the House are still in play. The fight between getting bigger tax cuts and bigger spending cuts. Good morning.

Good morning, Nathan. Yeah, I mean, when this bill and it was a, you know, it was a dogfight to get it through the House when it went over to the Senate. There were already Republicans speaking out about a number of different provisions in the legislation. You mentioned the tax cuts. There's a concern about the Medicare, Medicaid.

impacts from this. There's estimates that maybe seven to seven and a half million people might find themselves without Medicaid coverage if this legislation passes as it is. That's something that some Republican senators are saying is going too far. And then on the other hand, you have people who are, you know, you have Tom Tillis, or I'm sorry, Kevin Cramer from North Carolina, who's looking at the SALT deductions that pass the House. That's the state and local tax deductions.

and saying, you know, it was at $10,000. It's now in the House bill, $40,000. Maybe there's some room for negotiation in between there. That's going to be really alarming news to a lot of Republicans in the Northeast who really fought for much more than $40,000. So quite a bit of horse trading that's going to probably go on here. The Senate, Republicans can really only afford to lose, I think, three votes for the legislation to pass. If they change it, it goes back to the House and...

I don't want to say we're at square one, but it's going to drag things out past the president's deadline. So how important is it for the president to get this legislation done by the 4th of July? How much sway does he have on these lawmakers when there really is such a thin margin for error?

You know, President Trump has always shown an ability to really twist arms when it comes down to crunch time. So I think he will give the Senate time to come up with a draft bill. I think we even heard that I think Tom Tillis was talking about

having some kind of a draft out there by this weekend. So you'll start to get feedback on that. They'll start to work it. But, you know, I think as we creep up on July 4th, if it doesn't look like something has gotten a consensus from both sides of Capitol Hill, I think the president's going to have to really weigh in hard. And even then, July 4th is going to be a tight deadline. On the subject of twisting arms, it sounds like that's what the president's trying to do as well with Chinese President Xi Jinping talking about

getting on the phone with him as soon as this week. Is there any evidence, though, that these two leaders could get to talking with both sides still pretty far apart on the trade front? Yeah. So, first of all, the Chinese never talk about this stuff. They never preview calls or anything like that more than maybe a few hours in advance.

But I was looking back through our coverage. This is the third time in recent months that the president of the White House has said they want to have or they expect to have a call with Xi Jinping soon or imminently. It hasn't happened yet. And really, U.S.-China ties have actually been kind of worsening over the past couple weeks. We saw the U.S. restricting sales of jet parts to China, the software used to design chips.

And we've seen them canceling student visas. The Chinese on the other side are, you know, they've looked at restricting or slowing down the sale of

rare earth minerals to the U.S. Both sides have complaints. I don't know if that means a talk call is more likely or less likely. We'll have to see how this plays out. This is Bloomberg Daybreak, your morning podcast on the stories making news from Wall Street to Washington and beyond. Look for us on your podcast feed by 6 a.m. Eastern each morning on Apple, Spotify, or anywhere else you listen.

You can also listen live each morning starting at 5 a.m. Wall Street time on Bloomberg 1130 in New York, Bloomberg 99.1 in Washington, Bloomberg 92.9 in Boston, and nationwide on Sirius XM Channel 121. Plus, listen coast-to-coast on the Bloomberg Business app now with Apple CarPlay and Android Auto interfaces.

And don't forget to subscribe to Bloomberg News Now. It's the latest news whenever you want it, in five minutes or less. Search Bloomberg News Now on your favorite podcast platform to stay informed all day long. I'm Karen Moscow. And I'm Nathan Hager. Join us again tomorrow morning for all the news you need to start your day right here on Bloomberg Daybreak.

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