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cover of episode Analysis of the April Jobs Report

Analysis of the April Jobs Report

2025/5/2
logo of podcast Bloomberg Surveillance

Bloomberg Surveillance

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A
Adam Posen
A
Anurag Rana
C
Claudia Sahm
G
Gene Seroka
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我观察到美国经济目前正处于一个微妙的平衡点。一方面,我们面临着关税带来的成本冲击、移民减少以及政府削减开支等多种因素,这些都预示着经济衰退的风险。企业和消费者都在努力适应这种变化,但这种适应过程可能需要时间,并且可能导致经济增长放缓、失业率上升以及通货膨胀加速。 然而,我认为我们仍然有可能避免经济衰退。关键在于,政府需要迅速调整其激进的政策,减少成本冲击,并为企业和消费者提供更大的确定性。如果这些冲击能够得到有效控制,并且不会蔓延到整个经济体,那么我们就能避免经济衰退的恶性循环。 当前,企业正在努力建立缓冲,例如增加库存,以应对关税带来的不确定性。他们也在尽力避免裁员和削减开支。然而,如果这些成本冲击持续存在,并且政府不采取行动加以缓解,那么企业最终将不得不采取更严厉的措施,这将导致经济衰退。 因此,我建议政府迅速采取行动,减少成本冲击,并为经济创造一个更加稳定和可预测的环境。只有这样,我们才能避免经济衰退,并确保经济的持续增长和繁荣。

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Watch Tom and Paul LIVE every day on YouTube: http://bit.ly/3vTiACF).Bloomberg Surveillance hosted by Tom Keene & Paul SweeneyMay 2nd, 2025Featuring:1) Claudia Sahm, Chief Economist at New Century Advisors, Sarah Wolfe, Senior Economist at Morgan Stanley, Sarah Hunt, Chief Markets Strategist at Alpine Woods Capital Investors, and Kristina Campmany, Senior Portfolio Manager at Invesco, react to the April jobs figures. The S&P 500 has notched eight consecutive days of gains, its longest run since August, amid increased optimism that trade tensions are waning, but many strategists feel a market bull run will be driven by strong economic data.2) Gene Seroka, CEO of the Port of LA, joins for a discussion on how tariffs on China are affecting port traffic and what it could mean for the US economy. In March, Seroka predicted a possible 10% volume decline in the second half of this year due to substantial inventory and tariff uncertainty. Port data continues to be of interest to economists and market watchers.3) Anurag Rana, Senior Tech Analyst for Bloomberg Intelligence, wraps big tech earnings. Tech earnings and expectations of trade deals drove optimism in the markets, with investors awaiting the US jobs report on Friday, the last significant data release this week.4) Adam Posen, President of the Peterson Institute for International Economics, talks about his Foreign Affairs piece on why trade wars are easy to lose. Still, market sentiment has remained upbeat due to reports of the US reaching out to China for tariff talks, causing the dollar index to climb and Treasury yields to rise.5) Constance Hunter, Chief Economist at EIU, brings us into the market open and discusses whether the US has stepped too far into the trade war and whether a recession is inevitable. While Wall Street's risk appetite has increased due to strong tech earnings - causing the S&P 500 to rise for eight consecutive days - it's unclear where trade deals with China and other partners will end up.

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