Bloomberg Surveillance TV: June 23, 2025
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This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Jonathan Farrow, along with Lisa Abramowitz and Anne-Marie Hordern. Join us each day for insight from the best in markets, economics and geopolitics. From our global headquarters in New York City, we are live on Bloomberg Television weekday mornings from 6 to 9 a.m. Eastern. Subscribe to the podcast on Apple, Spotify or anywhere else you listen. And as always, on the Bloomberg Terminal and the Bloomberg Business App.

To extend the conversation, the former senior U.S. intelligence official Norman Raw joins us now for more. Norman, welcome back to the program, sir. Just a quote from the Defense Secretary, Pete Hegseth, called it an incredible and overwhelming success. How should we define success this Monday morning?

Good morning. Well, we have a changed Middle East. The United States and Israel have conducted devastating attacks against all of Iran's air defenses, leadership, nuclear programs, and Iran's response has been generally feeble.

What response Iran has been able to conduct, to include missile attacks against Israel, have not impacted the strategic course of the conflict. The numbers are moving in a direction where Iran's missile program is being whittled away, and Iran's nuclear program is effectively destroyed. There will be elements that remain, there will be elements that are concerning, but its nuclear program is effectively destroyed.

Norman, no one really understands Iran quite like you. What do you think the Ayatollah is weighing up right now, the menu of options, in terms of a response? Well, there are many people who understand Iran far better than me. But within Iran, the decision-making structure is going to be challenged. His leadership has been changed. He himself is in a difficult, hidden location. Some of his leadership is being hunted, perhaps, by the Israelis. They're under attack.

their economy is poor, their population is restive. Let me give you an example of options and the challenges. If they close the Strait of Hormuz, they close off many of the foodstuffs, the vegetable oils, the primary goods that come into their country to feed the population. Now that is something that you really don't want to do at a time when your population may erupt into major unrest. So they have many challenges with all of the decisions they make. But again, if they close the Strait of Hormuz,

It does not impact Israel. And it will bring in the United States and could likely lead to the end of the regime. Do you think these strikes get Iran to the table? The president continues to say he wants to see a diplomatic path forward.

Not immediately, but what it does do is it tells the world that the United States is pushing for diplomacy. And that actually encourages the world to push back on Iran's efforts to escalate the conflict or isolate the United States. So in the past, in some cases, the United States seemed as

the aggressor or alone, but the United States is in essence saying you can't have a program that is moving towards a nuclear weapon, but we're interested in a diplomatic deal. Be reasonable. Iran is not being reasonable, and it has no allies.

Norman, you said that the nuclear program has effectively been destroyed. There's a lot of concern among a number of circles about the 400 kilograms of enriched uranium that have gone missing that previously were held near Isfahan, as well as equipment that was taken out of Fordow before the attacks. Do you have any sense of either where that could be or how close that could be to restarting some of the nuclear programs that Iran previously had?

So those are valid concerns. So we should be concerned about Iran's remaining nuclear material. It will have nuclear scientists, it will have nuclear knowledge, and it will have parts and equipment related to centrifuges that it did not declare to the IAEA that it could in theory assemble and recreate in a covert facility.

But let's think about that for a minute. If you believe what you read in the newspapers, the United States and Israel have some extremely good intelligence on Iran. So they're going to have to put this together, get away with it, and then the United States and Israel are going to have to not learn about it and not destroy it. Now, that's possible.

But it's unlikely. But it is something that's going to require diplomatic pressure so that it can be identified and removed. And it's probably a card Iran will play in the talks. What do you think the foreign minister of Iran is doing over in Russia today? We know that he is meeting with Vladimir Putin. And there's a real question around what the ask is and whether there will be the response that Iranians are looking for.

diplomatic support, pressure in the UN. Iran has obtained consistent diplomatic support at the United Nations Security Council, the International Atomic Energy Agency, and other diplomatic fora from Russia and China over the years. In fact, these two countries have blocked any major pressure on Iran for its proliferation of missiles, nuclear program, and terrorism. And this is really the moment where these two countries can produce this.

It's unlikely that either of these countries are going to provide any military support. The strategic agreement that has been signed between Russia and Iran, it doesn't provide for that sort of relationship. But Iran, again, it has no allies. But it does have partners who have provided support in international fora that may help on diplomatic talks. Norman, just before you go, just a brief assessment of this operation, 37 hours long,

125 aircraft, B-2 bombers, fourth and fifth generation fighters as well, 30,000 pound bunker buster bombs, missiles launched from a submarine as well. Norman, how smooth, how well executed were the logistics, the precision of this operation? This operation speaks to the training, leadership and the technology of the United States military

has had for a number of years. This operation has been stated in the press, has been practiced for many years. This is not something that has occurred in any recent administration, but this recent administration did have to refine it significantly to match the target set. But what you are seeing is a technology and capability and leadership that no country can match. And I think North Korea...

And other countries in the world, including China and Russia, are looking in the past weeks and saying the world is also a little different from their perspective. It's a strong final point. Norman, appreciate your time, sir. Norman Rowe there, the former senior U.S. intelligence official.

If this government spending in defense goes towards things like R&D that have dual-use civilian purposes, you could get spillovers that actually end up enhancing productivity in Europe and so have a more long-lasting impact on growth.

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Dan Struyven of Goldman Sachs writes in the following. A hypothetical sustained a very large disruption of energy supply transit would likely push oil and European natural gas prices above $110 per barrel. Joining us now is Dan Struyven of Goldman Sachs. Dan, that's the hypothetical. Let's talk about a base case. What is the base case for you and the team so far this morning?

Yeah, so base case remains that we don't see significant disruptions neither of oil or natural gas in the Middle East. And in our base case without disruptions, we actually have energy prices gradually declining with Brent reaching around $60 per barrel in the fourth quarter of this year. And with TTF, European natural gas prices also declining, especially next year with the arrival of all these extra LNG supply cargo terminals.

Dan, how high could oil go if Iran does not close the Strait of Hormuz but does other potential attacks on energy infrastructure or tankers that potentially disrupt the flow of energy coming out of the region?

Yes, so oil prices could rise significantly in those scenarios. And the key reason is that the Middle East, the Gulf countries are, you know, remain the largest regional producer in global oil markets. In general, our estimate is that for every one million barrels per day drop of supply that's sustained for about a year, Brent should be about $8 per barrel

That takes into account the fact that higher prices reduce demand somewhat and incentivize US shale to produce more. I think one challenge, big picture, with potential supply disruptions in the Middle East is that the most important buffer that the oil market benefits from against supply disruptions, namely quite a bit of spare capacity among OPEC core producers, that's not necessarily available.

if the production to the capacity to produce would be affected by potential disruptions because we think the bulk of the spare capacity in oil markets is concentrated both in Saudi Arabia and the UAE. Are you seeing any reductions to Iranian barrels right now?

No, in fact, our now cast of Iran crude supply is at a three-year high, 3.6 million barrels per day of crude. Iranian supply has actually doubled over the last three years or so. And we're actually seeing very high export flows at the moment.

I think the idea is to get the barrels out safely while we can. And at the moment, prices are relatively attractive. Given that, Dan, do you think that if there is some sort of calming down of the tensions, you could see a huge decline in oil prices?

Yes, so we estimate a geopolitical risk premium of around $10 per barrel. If the market were to increase its probability of our base case that you don't see disruptions, this risk premium could come down. It may take some time for us to really learn whether we're going to see disruptions. Now, I think the hypothetical scenario where this risk premium comes up more quickly would be

a successful return to the negotiation tables between the US and Iran. But I think otherwise it would take some time for markets to get more confidence in the base case outlook for disruptions. On the flip side, Dan, there's this question about how much the US is going to be affected versus other countries or other regions. I'm thinking of Europe, I'm thinking of Asia. How big is the dispersion in terms of which areas would get disproportionately hit in terms of their energy costs

based on a myriad of potential disruptions to oil supplies.

Yes, so I would rank the vulnerability of the three big regions as follows. Most vulnerable, Europe, both because of the exposure to oil prices, but also natural gas prices, and then also diesel prices, where Europe no longer imports diesel products from Russia, but is heavily dependent on the Middle East. Second, I would put Asia. And then third, vulnerable, but the least vulnerable is the U.S., because the U.S. natural gas market is quite insulated from global market.

because the U.S. is a large producer and because the U.S. exports are basically at capacity. So if we were to see large disruptions, oil prices would also rise and increase costs for the U.S., but the U.S. would be the least vulnerable among the top three regions here. Dan, I'd love to

pick up your point about how Iran is at a three-year high when it comes to their barrels that they're producing and exporting. At the same time, the Trump administration says they have maximum pressure right now on Iran's oil industry, and they're going after the teapots and the banks in Hong Kong and China that facilitate all of this. How are they so high if this administration says they're at max pressure?

Yeah, so to your point about 90% of Iran's liquids exports, Iran is exporting just over 2 million barrels per day of liquids, about 90% goes to China. And I think over the last two years, the system has built out an alternative supply chain with shipping companies, with ports, with refiners, with alternative financial institutions that together ensure that these barrels continue to reach global markets and in particular quite price sensitive.

Chinese teapot refiners, which have wafer-thin margins, and they basically need those discounts to continue operating. Dan Stryven of Goldman Sachs. Dan, thank you, sir, as always.

Stunning events over the weekend. America's attack on Iran, years in the making. A stealth 36-hour long operation named Midnight Hammer. Pilots drop some of the largest bombs in their arsenal on Iranian nuclear facilities. Joining us now to discuss is the former U.S. Defense Secretary, Mark Esper. Mr. Secretary, welcome to the program, sir. We'd love to lean on your experience, the work to execute an operation like this one, and your early high-level assessment of its success.

Well, good morning. Look, it was clearly successful in terms of the execution. Our aircraft were able to make it in, drop, what, 14 GBU-57s. The submarines launched T-LAMs from offshore.

We were in, out with impunity, nobody was hurt. And I just, I think it speaks to the skill and professionalism of the United States military. And now I think what we have to do is two things. First of all, get a good battle damage assessment, and that will take a few days. And maybe even then we'll be incomplete until we get inspectors on the ground.

And then secondly, we're all waiting to see what Iran's response will be. And there are various predictions. You guys have been talking about it, what they may or may not do. But that's what we're all waiting for now. If you were advising the president right now, what would you say to him in terms of what to expect in terms of Tehran's retaliation?

Yeah, look, I think there are a range of things they could do. You know, they could, first of all, use Shia militia groups in Iraq to target our people and facilities there. Secondly, much like they did during my time in early 2020, they could launch a salvo of missiles against U.S. forces in the Middle East. And there are a couple dozen bases there with over 40,000 U.S. service members that they could go after. Third, there could be sales here in the United States and globally, or they can go against American officials in

as they did a couple years ago and try that. And then they could go after shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, which I think is unlikely. But to me, those are the range of outcomes that they may pursue here in the coming days. In 2020, when Qasem Soleimani was struck with that drone strike, we did see retaliation, but it was telegraphed through back channels to the U.S. administration. Do you think we could see Iran take that same approach this time around?

Yeah, I think what they have to do is calibrate this so that they do enough for domestic consumption, feel like they've satisfied the military, they've struck back, tell the Iranian people they've struck back, but not so much that President Trump

really ups the ante, climbs that escalation ladder and really hits them back fairly hard. Within hours of the missile strikes at El Asad, we had Iranians on the phone privately reaching out to us saying they were done, they had no more, they wanted to stop fighting, etc. And that was, of course, long before we knew that American service members suffer concussions and TBI. But nonetheless, they'll do a lot of back chilling because they can't go much further. This is a

They're being dismantled, their leadership, certainly the military side is being taken apart. Their nuclear sites have been pummeled. And so the question is how much longer can they go on? How can they even decide on some sort of retaliation or strike against the United States if the Supreme Leader is reportedly hiding in a bunker, he's in his late 80s, and he has no access even to electronic communication?

Yeah, look, that's the big question is who's in charge? How complete, how effective is the chain of command right now? Are there instructions left behind to the IRGC or to the missile forces to launch attacks? That may explain why they haven't responded here in the 24, 36 hours.

since the U.S. strikes on Fordow, Natanz, and Esfahan. There's one theory out there, Secretary, that this could potentially reignite some of the efforts that Iran has made to achieve nuclear status because that is the only deterrence, and especially with the 400 kilograms of enriched uranium missing in action. How concerned are you about that reality going underground and really having the Iranian officials expedite those efforts?

Yeah, look, you bring up a good point that I was going to raise. There's still 900 pounds of 60 percent enriched uranium that's fairly close to what they would need for 10 nuclear weapons out there that we don't have control. We don't know where it is. The IAE doesn't know where it is. So first of all, we have to track that down. Secondly, we don't know to what degree the Iranian infrastructure has been destroyed. And even if it has, it's just a matter of time before they rebuild. Now, that at this point probably looks more like years.

than anything else than months. But nonetheless, until there is a fundamental change in the ambitions of the regime or a fundamental change in the regime itself, this is likely an ambition that will grow back over time, arguably more energized than before because of what has happened here in the last couple weeks. There's a larger point, Secretary, that other people have been making this morning, which is that it is a deterrent to, say, Russia,

to China showing what the US military can do and is willing to do in the face of some sort of red line that gets crossed. Do you see it that way or do you see other nations and seeing the need to become nuclear or having some sort of deterrent that really takes this potential outcome off the table?

You know, deterrence is based on two things, capability and will. And I think everybody has understood the United States military has the capability to do a lot of things. I don't think anybody ever doubted we could do what we did with regard to B-2 stealth bombers entering Iranian airspace and dropping these bunker busters. I think what is different here is President Trump has shown the willingness to do it.

despite domestic voices coming from both the right and left saying he shouldn't do it. So I think in this regard, it's more of his willingness to take action, which probably caught Russia's and Beijing's attention. Well, this is one criticism of the previous administration. As you know, Mr. Secretary, the failure to provide a satisfactory deterrence

in key waterways in this region. And I'm thinking more of the Red Sea over the last few years. As we think about the Strait of Hormuz, can you just share with us what you learned about the best way to provide a deterrence and to prevent the disruption of those waterways?

Yeah, well, look, I think sending a clear message, first of all, is important. But secondly, and I say this in light of the fact that the Iranian parliament yesterday voted that Iran should close the Strait of Hormuz, I think there's going to be a good argument if they strike back to take out the Iranian Navy, particularly those elements of the Navy that could shut down or obstruct

or hijack shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. So you could sink the mine layers of the Navy. You could go after the swarm boats that tend to come up upon cargo tankers and take them ashore. You could knock out Iranian missile batteries on the coastline. So I think, to me, that would be the top of my list if Iran tries to shut down the Strait or takes more aggressive action, would be to take that card out of their hand because everybody is concerned about shutting down the Strait of Hormuz

And yet, even though it would fly in the face of their own interests, they continue to threaten that. Difficult to answer the next question, sir, but just a final question. Do you get the sense that American involvement in this operation is over? Or do you think this might be ongoing?

I think it's to be determined based on how Iran responds. I think President Trump's instincts have long been, since the time I worked with him, he does not want to get involved in wars. He doesn't want this to go on and on and on. I think if Iran shoots missiles and they're largely feckless, I think we stand back. We probably continue to support the Israelis with munition and intelligence and defensive equipment.

air defense capabilities. But I think in terms of continuing strikes, we probably step back at that time and then urge a negotiation. By the way, a negotiation between Iran and Israel that's going to have to include a return to the nonproliferation regime and inspectors and verification mechanisms on the ground in Iran. That's absolutely critical. A deeply thoughtful conversation, sir, and we appreciate your time. The former U.S. Defense Secretary, Mark Esper.

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Some of the price action and your morning calls. Let's turn back to our top story, the world bracing for Iran's response after the U.S. attacks its nuclear sites over the weekend. Joining us now is Danny Deneau, the Israeli ambassador to the United Nations. Ambassador, good morning, sir. It's good to see you. Good morning. Thank you for having me. Let's talk about the events over the weekend, and let's talk about this also. Who's in charge in Iran right now? Amri's been talking about this all morning, the chain of command. Who's in charge?

Well, it's hard to tell. You know, they have the regime, which still has control over the population. But, you know, you see statements coming out. The Minister of Foreign Affairs is flying all over, sending threats to Israel, to the U.S. I don't think that Iran today is in a position to threaten anyone.

They should think very carefully about the next steps, what they want to do, what they should do. Our position was very clear that we had the goal in this operation to degrade their capabilities. I think we achieved a lot so far. We still have more targets, but I think when you look at Iran today and you compare it to the last time I was here a week ago, it's a different ballgame. They don't have those capabilities over the reactors, and I think we were able to push back

you know, significantly. Iran, more than expected. You were here just a little over a week ago, the morning after those first Israeli strikes started, and you said it would take days or weeks, this operation. We heard from the prime minister today, Benjamin Netanyahu, he said they're very close to completing the goal of eliminating the dual threats, ballistic missiles and nuclear capabilities. Where are we on the timeline?

So I cannot give you exact dates, but I think the main challenges we had, which were the nuclear reactors, the result of the U.S. attack are magnificent. The U.S. had the capabilities that we don't have. So on that issue, I can tell you that we achieved most of what we wanted. But still you have the ballistic missiles, which is a major threat to Israel. It's important to know that we all speak about the nuclear threat, but when you have 1,000 ballistic missiles

targeting Israel, it's a problem. So we took a lot of those launches, but we still have more to go. When it comes to nuclear facilities, though, this morning the IDF said that they went after Fordow entrances and exits to make sure they were preventing the removal of these materials. How do you assess what Iran has right now in terms of their nuclear capabilities? Well, Iran is a big country, and they were hiding a lot of the materials, and they were trying to move stuff.

So we cannot guarantee the result. But when you look at the infrastructure, the machine of terror that they built, and by the way, they spent hundreds of billions over the years. Now it's not there. So we cannot guarantee 100% result, but we can tell they don't have those reactors. It will take them decades to rebuild it.

There is a question about how much regime change is part of what Israel is trying to do. We've heard President Trump discuss that as well. What's your sense of how much that's also one of the aims? Well, I can tell you feelings. You know, we all wish that there would be a regime change for the people of Iran. They are the victims of this regime, you know, so we pray for that. But the question if it's the goal of the operation, I think, you know, it's not our

our goal and we have President Trump also. It's very hard to tell the people of Iran what's good for them. They should decide and I hope that they will take the right decision. They deserve better.

You're the ambassador to the United Nations. Earlier this year, Israel withdrew from the UN Human Rights Council following the U.S. in doing that. What role does the United Nations have to play in some of these negotiations at a time where people are wondering about its institutional relevance? Well, I agree with you that they should think carefully. Yesterday, there was an emergency session of the Security Council, and some countries condemned the U.S.

And I told them, where were you all those years when they enriched the uranium, when they built the reactors? Now you come and you condemn Israel and the U.S.? So the U.N. should be much more effective. And basically they allowed Iran to do what they did all those years. And we're

I still believe in the UN, but I think the UN should be reformed. We expect the new US ambassador to arrive soon. And I think that together we can change what's happening there. There's a line that you used earlier in the conversation. You reflected on the US capabilities and you said that the US has capabilities that we don't have.

And it raises a question that I think makes some people in this country uncomfortable. Did Israel start an operation knowing that they wouldn't be able to complete it without U.S. involvement? No, absolutely not. And I said it, I think, last time I was here. We have the capabilities. It will take longer. It will be more painful. But we can deal with the threats. So I think the decision of the U.S. was the right decision because now it will be a shorter war. And I think it's much more effective.

How are you preparing for the retaliation?

So, first we have to acknowledge it's not easy for us. The entire country is not functioning today. People are not going to work. People stay next to the shelters. You talk about 9.5 million people for almost two weeks. It's heavy, but we are willing to continue as long as it takes. But we believe that we, as I said earlier, we achieved most of the goals. Now we have a few more things we want to take care of. What are those few more things?

You know, mainly the ballistic missiles. The industry, you know, they built a huge infrastructure to produce ballistic missiles. They wanted to compete with the U.S. and Russia, and they were very close to get there. So we want to make sure that it will be very hard for them to rebuild those capabilities. These kind of ballistic missiles coming from Iran and their nuclear program, this is the point of the regime. Can you...

decimate their ballistic missile program, their nuclear program, without decimating the regime? Well, we hope that they will not have the desire after what happened in the last two weeks, that they will understand that we will be there. If they will continue with aspirations to eliminate Israel, Israel will be there before they attack us. We learned the lesson after October 7th. We are not taking any chances. Ambassador, we appreciate your time once again. Thanks for being here. The Israeli ambassador to the UN there, Danny Danone.

This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast, bringing you the best in markets, economics and geopolitics. You can watch the show live on Bloomberg TV weekday mornings from 6am to 9am Eastern. Subscribe to the podcast on Apple, Spotify or anywhere else you listen. And as always on the Bloomberg Terminal and the Bloomberg Business Hour.

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