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cover of episode Bloomberg Surveillance TV: May 27, 2025

Bloomberg Surveillance TV: May 27, 2025

2025/5/27
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Bloomberg Surveillance
AI Deep Dive Transcript
People
A
Amanda Lynam
L
Lynn Martin
R
Roosevelt Bowman
T
Terry Haines
Topics
Roosevelt Bowman: 我预计美国经济增长将放缓至0.5%，主要原因是目前较高的资本成本和关税带来的不确定性。我认为债券市场目前对这种增长放缓的定价并不充分。政策的不稳定性，例如潜在的更换美联储主席的法律挑战，导致收益率居高不下。虽然短期内通胀可能维持在高位，但我不认为未来6到12个月会出现高通胀或滞胀。我认为关税只有在消费者能够承担更高价格时才会推高物价。高频数据显示，近几个月消费者支出已经出现疲软，劳动力需求也在减弱。员工跳槽的溢价已经消失，杠杆已经从员工转移到雇主。我认为今年晚些时候，债券和股票都有可能表现良好。债券表现良好需要增长放缓和政策明确，而股票需要刺激和支持，这可能来自美联储。我认为我们已经开始看到消费者和劳动力市场出现疲软迹象，消费者可能会减少支出。尽管美国资产存在风险溢价，但我并不认为会出现大规模撤资。美国债券市场的深度和规模以及在科技领域的领导地位意味着美国固定收益和股票市场都将具有吸引力，但不如以前那么有吸引力。我认为美元疲软反映了对政策不稳定性的担忧，并且从长期来看，美元可能被高估，而短期内可能被低估。由于市场预期美联储将降息，美元面临下行压力。

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  • Roosevelt Bowman, Senior Investment Strategist at Bernstein Private Wealth Management- Amanda Lynam, Head: Macro Credit Research at BlackRock- Terry Haines, founder at Pangaea Policy- Lynn Martin, President of NYSE

Amanda Lynam, Head: Macro Credit Research at BlackRock, joins to discuss opportunities in corporate credit as bond market yields remain stubbornly high. Roosevelt Bowman, Senior Investment Strategist at Bernstein Private Wealth Management, talks about opportunities in equities as President Trump pivots on EU tariffs and as the bond market signals more warnings about the US debt and deficit. Terry Haines, founder at Pangaea Policy, joins to talk about President Trump's economic policies and support heading into the summer. Lynn Martin, NYSE president, on IPO activity in 2025.

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