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Bloomberg Surveillance TV: May 28, 2025
2025/5/28
Bloomberg Surveillance
E
Eswar Prasad
F
Frank Lee
F
French Hill
M
Mandeep Singh
Eswar Prasad: 我认为美元不太可能被迅速取代，因为目前没有其他货币能够完全匹敌美元在国际支付和储备中的地位。尽管如此，世界各国应该考虑分散其资产配置，减少对美元的过度依赖，以降低风险。欧元曾经被视为美元的潜在挑战者，但由于欧元区在财政和银行联盟方面存在结构性问题，未能完全实现其承诺。美国的财政政策，特别是不断增长的财政赤字和债务水平，确实对美元的长期稳定性构成威胁。然而，即使美国在某些方面表现不佳，其经济规模、金融市场深度和制度框架的整体实力仍然使其优于其他国家。特朗普政府对美元的立场并不明确，时而希望美元贬值以促进出口，时而又强调美元的主导地位，这种矛盾的信息可能会对美元产生负面影响。总的来说，我认为美元的未来走向取决于美国能否采取更加稳健的财政政策，并解决其经济结构中的一些根本性问题。
Deep Dive
This chapter explores the ongoing debate surrounding the dollar's dominance as the world's reserve currency. Expert Ishwar Prasad discusses the differences between diversification and de-dollarization, highlighting the lack of a viable competitor to the dollar despite its weaknesses and the mixed signals from the US administration regarding the dollar's value.
- The world is trying to diversify away from the dollar's dominance (57%+ of assets in one currency).
- The dollar's role as a reserve, payment, and funding currency is unmatched.
- Weaknesses in other currencies (China's capital mobility issues, Eurozone's institutional challenges) maintain dollar's strength.
- US macroeconomic policies, particularly fiscal deficits, negatively impact the dollar, but other countries' challenges keep it afloat.
- Mixed messaging from the US administration regarding dollar's value creates uncertainty.
Shownotes Transcript