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cover of episode Factors Driving Equity and Bond Investors amid Uncertainty

Factors Driving Equity and Bond Investors amid Uncertainty

2025/4/30
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Bloomberg Surveillance

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A
Amanda Lynam
C
Callie Cox
首席市场策略师,专注于投资策略和市场分析,强调政策对长期投资的重要性。
G
George Goncalves
J
Jim Caron
S
Sinjin Bowron
Topics
我观察到美国经济增长正在放缓,实际收益率的下降反映出市场对美国经济增长前景的温和预期。企业盈利电话会议显示,企业缺乏前瞻性,难以区分前期需求和实际需求。许多消费品公司预计未来几个季度将不得不应对关税的影响。虽然市场数据与软数据之间存在差异,但我认为硬数据最终会与软数据趋同,只是时间问题。 我预计长期债券收益率曲线将变陡峭,长期风险溢价将重建。这主要受到预算赤字、对财政状况的担忧以及长期通胀预期上升的驱动。由于通胀已经高于目标,并且可能进一步上升,我认为美联储的反应将会受到限制,不会提前降息。只有当劳动力市场出现明显的恶化迹象时,美联储才会降息,他们可能会先降息50个基点。 债券市场正在复苏,价格上涨,收益率下降。这部分原因是高风险无风险利率带来的收益复利效应,部分原因是高收益债券的总回报超过了投资级债券。高收益债券市场中信用评级最低的CCC级债券,其总回报甚至超过了标普500指数、纳斯达克100指数和罗素指数。 我认为应该选择性地承担信用风险。如果投资者受限于投资级市场,他们可以购买投资级债券。我们更倾向于投资于投资级债券的低端(BBB级)或高收益债券的高端(BB级)。如果投资者不受限制,他们可以选择任何债券。我们更倾向于投资于高收益债券的高端。投资级债券和高收益债券的收益率之间仍然存在显著差异,投资高收益债券可以获得更高的收益。鉴于国债市场的波动性,我们更倾向于选择性地投资于低质量债券,以获得额外的利差,并通过复利来提高总回报。但是,我不建议追逐市场尾端(CCC级)债券,这需要进行深入的信用分析。 我们更青睐国内导向的服务行业,例如保险和银行。这些行业受贸易政策的影响较小,但仍会受到经济增长放缓的影响。高收益ETF虽然收益率高,但价格风险也较高,需要谨慎考虑。高收益债券的久期通常较短,因此在国债收益率下跌的情况下,价格影响较小。 我认为美国面临更具挑战性的增长-通胀组合,增长放缓,通胀上升。其幅度取决于贸易政策的退出方式和积极的抵消因素(例如减税)。近几周风险资产的复苏是暂时的喘息,预计未来仍将出现波动。虽然经济增长放缓,但我目前并不认为经济衰退是基本情况。投资者利用强势时期以更防御的方式调整投资组合,重点关注哪些公司和行业能够应对不确定时期。债券不再是投资组合中的压舱石,企业发行债券的主要驱动力是首席财务官和财务主管采取谨慎态度,提前数年筹资。信用质量恶化主要发生在市场尾部的小型发行商中,对指数层面的影响有限。ETF使得风险在市场中的转移更加无缝,提高了公司信贷市场的风险转移效率。

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Watch Tom and Paul LIVE every day on YouTube: http://bit.ly/3vTiACF).Bloomberg Surveillance hosted by Tom Keene & Paul SweeneyApril 30th, 2025Featuring:1) Amanda Lynam, Head of Macro Credit Research at Blackrock, joins for an extended discussion on her weekly global credit report and discusses corporate credit spreads and signals from the bond market. Uncertainty continues to be the main theme across the investing world. Veteran emerging-markets investor Mark Mobius said he’s keeping 95% of his funds’ holdings in cash as he waits out the trade-related uncertainty. Hedge funds are reluctant to make major bets amid the turmoil, with the only significant shift in positioning in April being increased bets against US stocks, Bloomberg reported.2) Jim Caron, CIO of Cross Asset Solutions at Morgan Stanley Investment Management, talks about whether the dollar and US treasuries are still safe havens and how he tries to contextualize that discussion. In a broader look at the economy, real GDP likely slowed to a standstill in the first quarter as President Trump’s policy shifts disrupted activity, according to Bloomberg economists.3) George Goncalves, Head of US Macro Strategy at MUFG Securities Americas, joins to discuss economic fundamentals and incoming eco data and how that, possibly more than policy, will shape markets in the coming months. Stock drifted in early trading as investors await a busy day of earnings and macro data on the final session of an exhausting month. Mag 7 results, GDP and inflation numbers are potential catalysts for market direction.4) Sinjin Bowron, High Yield Bond and Senior Bank Loan Portfolio Manager at Beach Point Capital, discusses leveraged credit markets, opportunities and challenges amid widening uncertainty, and other signals from the bond market. US Treasuries held recent gains as traders awaited data on inflation and economic growth, as well as the debt management team's plans for sales in the $29 trillion market.5) Callie Cox, Chief Market Strategist at Ritholtz Wealth Management, brings us into the market open and talks about allocating and staying the course in a slowing economy. Economic data due this week includes inflation and gross-domestic-product data, which will provide a snapshot of US economic activity before President Trump's trade policy shifts.

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