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cover of episode Inflation Data and Unilateral Tariffs

Inflation Data and Unilateral Tariffs

2025/6/12
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Bloomberg Surveillance
AI Deep Dive AI Chapters Transcript
People
A
Anton Posner
F
Frances Donald
I
Ian Lyngen
R
Rich Clarida
Topics
Frances Donald: 作为RBC的首席经济学家，我认为关税对经济活动造成了扭曲，但潜在的经济增长率约为1.5%至2%。美国存在两种不同的经济体：富人的经济体和中低收入人群的经济体。关税的影响需要几个月才能在CPI数据中显现，并且可能会使CPI上涨0.5个百分点。但即使没有关税，结构性压力也会推高通货膨胀。我不应将“衰退与否”作为经济前景的决定性因素，因为对大多数公司和家庭来说，当前环境并不理想，这是一种勉强维持的状态，可能比短暂的衰退更成问题。目前最大的问题不是实际政策，而是我们正在玩什么游戏的不确定性。关税导致不同地区出现经济衰退，这使得政策制定者难以制定统一的利率政策。我们需要关注的是，特定贸易部门的问题是否会蔓延到更广泛的经济领域。 Rich Clarida: 作为PIMCO的全球经济顾问和前美联储副主席，我认为美元作为储备货币，为美国带来特权，包括较低的借贷成本和更大的借贷能力。美元在未来5到10年内不会失去其储备货币地位，但这并不意味着美元会永远坚挺。各国央行购买黄金是因为黄金不会违约。当前美国关税的规模和范围是几十年未见的，对经济有全面影响。到目前为止，美国经济表现良好，没有迹象表明美国公司利用关税作为提高价格的理由。经济政策在当今社会有效，但必须承认美国经济存在分化。鉴于较好的通胀数据，美联储可能会考虑降息。总统可以提名美联储官员，但需要参议院确认，且市场也会对此产生影响。国会通过修正联邦储备法案，将利率决策权分散到一个委员会，以防止个人专断。英格兰银行的官员认为，行长在利率投票中偶尔处于失败方是一种优势，因为他们更接受不同意见。 Ian Lyngen: 作为BMO Capital Markets的美国利率主管，我认为只要夏季实际通胀没有显著上升，到年底，通缩趋势将重新确立，美联储可能会恢复正常化路径。如果美元进一步贬值，可能会导致更多通胀，从而使核心通胀更具粘性。目前，消费者表现出出人意料的强劲势头。如果通胀再次走高，消费者对经济增长的贡献将会减少。实际利率将在今年和2026年及以后走低。此次数据巩固了今年降息50个基点的预期，但美联储在夏季可能会保持谨慎。目前美国经济面临的最大阻力是贸易战带来的不确定性。 Anton Posner: 作为Mercury Resources的首席执行官，我认为特朗普总统宣布对进口钢铁和铝征收50%的新关税。为了赶在新关税生效前清关，公司将进口钢铁转移到不应该卸货的港口。征收关税会影响所有人。国内钢厂利用进口关税提高价格，这影响了通货膨胀和消费者支出。相同等级的钢铁是相同的。我们需要通过立法来促进对美国工业的投资，而不是通过社交媒体上的言论。需要制定国家政策来与韩国等国的政策竞争，以激励实际投资。美国的选举周期基于简单的口号，这使得制定长期的战略计划变得困难。

Deep Dive

Chapters
Frances Donald, RBC's chief economist, discusses the discrepancies between the reported 3.7% GDP growth and the realities experienced by different segments of the American population. She highlights the impact of tariffs, inventory distortions, and the uneven distribution of economic benefits.
  • GDP growth reported at 3.7%, but feels lower
  • Tariffs create significant distortions in economic data
  • Two Americas: one for the wealthy, one for low- and middle-income earners
  • Uneven impact of inflation across different consumer segments

Shownotes Transcript

Watch Tom and Paul LIVE every day on YouTube: http://bit.ly/3vTiACF).Bloomberg Surveillance hosted by Tom Keene & Paul SweeneyJune 12th, 2025Featuring:1) Frances Donald, Chief Economist at RBC, joins for a discussion on CPI and the labor market and whether the Fed will be late to cut rates. The Federal Reserve is rewriting its strategy document to balance the lessons learned from low inflation before the pandemic and the painful high inflation that followed, aiming to maximize economic benefits for working Americans while controlling inflation.2) Rich Clarida, Global Economic Advisor at PIMCO and former Fed Vice Chair, joins for an extended conversation on the Fed, rates, and the US economy. Today's 30-year Treasury auction is providing a fresh gauge of investor appetite for long-dated debt amid concerns over mounting deficits and their impact on demand.3) Ian Lyngen, Head of US Rates at BMO Capital Markets, talks about the outlook for the 10-year-yield and brings us into PPI. President Trump's remarks on imposing unilateral tariffs on dozens of US trading partners and heightened tensions in the Middle East contributed to the risk-off tone across markets today.4) Anton Posner, CEO at Mercury Resources, discusses how tariffs are affecting shipping and maritime industries and whether it will show up in the economic and consumer data and unilateral tariffs go into place. President Trump has threatened to impose higher duties on dozens of economies, but has only reached a trade framework with the UK and a tariff truce with China, which was recently threatened.

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