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cover of episode Instant Reaction: Amazon Gives Weak Forecast on Trade Concerns

Instant Reaction: Amazon Gives Weak Forecast on Trade Concerns

2025/5/1
logo of podcast Bloomberg Surveillance

Bloomberg Surveillance

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People
C
Caroline Hyde
P
Poonam Goyal
T
Tim Stenovec
Topics
Caroline Hyde: 我认为我们必须弄清楚这是否是基础设施支出。看看Meta的情况,他们表示,由于基础设施成本将会略高一些,他们将不得不增加资本支出。但整体盈利能力将被最终他们必须从利润率方面支付的费用所吞噬。他们是否会牺牲一些利润率,来保护处于弱势地位的消费者?亚马逊的利润率可能还会受到第三方卖家支出减少和广告收入下降的影响。亚马逊的新闻稿中没有明确提及关税,这可能是因为他们有意回避这个问题。亚马逊可能正在与中国供应商谈判,并可能将部分关税成本转嫁给供应商,但他们不太可能公开承认关税对其价格的影响。 Tim Stenovec: 亚马逊面临的关税问题并非其独有,但其云业务的规模使其与其他零售商有所不同。如果亚马逊因关税而提高价格,其他零售商也会效仿,最终导致消费者承担更高的价格。投资者普遍认为亚马逊能够比其他电商公司更好地应对关税带来的冲击,但亚马逊仍然需要应对关税冲击,并可能需要承担部分利润损失,以及调整供应链。亚马逊并不害怕让投资者对利润感到失望,其销售额仍然强劲。 Poonam Goyal: 我认为亚马逊第二季度运营利润率下降的主要原因是关税导致的成本增加。亚马逊在新闻稿中没有直接提及关税对其的影响,这并不令人意外。亚马逊的关税影响既体现在自营业务(1P)也体现在第三方卖家业务(3P)。亚马逊第一季度和第二季度业绩差异的主要原因是关税。尽管AWS第一季度销售额增长放缓,但其利润率仍然很高,并且长期潜力巨大。其他零售商也面临着与亚马逊相同的关税问题。如果关税持续高企,消费者将面临更高的价格,并且可能会出现商品缺货的情况。如果价格大幅上涨,消费者可能会减少购买量或转向更便宜的替代品。

Deep Dive

Shownotes Transcript

Amazon.com gave a weaker-than-expected forecast for operating profit in the current quarter, pointing toward tariffs and trade policies that may cause consumers to pull back on spending. The world’s largest online retailer projected operating profit of $13 billion to $17.5 billion, compared with an average estimate of $17.8 billion. Sales will be $159 billion to $164 billion in the period ending in June, the company said Thursday in a statement. Analysts, on average, expected $161.4 billion.Amazon shares have fallen about 13% this year as Wall Street weighs the impact of President Donald Trump’s tariffs on a retail operation that sources much of its goods from China. Investors are generally bullish on the company’s efforts to become a major force in artificial intelligence, but there are concerns that Amazon’s prodigious spending on data centers may not translate into meaningful sales growth any time soon.Amazon Web Services, the largest seller of rented computing power, reported first-quarter sales gained 17% to $29.3 billion, in line with analysts’ estimates. It was the unit’s slowest growth in a year.For instant reaction and analysis, hosts Carol Massar and Tim Stenovec speak with:

  • Bloomberg Technology co-host Caroline Hyde
  • Bloomberg Intelligence senior US e-commerce and retail analyst Poonam Goyal

 

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